Countries including India, Russia, France, Poland and the UK have warned their citizens against travelling to Israel, amid threats of an Iranian attack in response to a strike this month on its consulate in Damascus. This comes amid reports that Iran will likely launch a direct attack on Israel within the next 48 hours.
Hezbollah,a proxy of Iran in Lebanon launched a barrage of rockets on the northern part of Israel yesterday (12 April), claiming it to be the retaliatory strike on Israeli artillery positions in response to the recent airstrikes on southern Lebanese villages and civilian homes.
Tensions have been brewing in the Middle East for over 180 days, since the Hamas launched a massacring intrusion in Israel leading to a full-scale US backed counter offensive by the latter, marking the biggest Israeli attack in Gaza to date. After the latest Israeli strikes in Syria, targeting Iranian embassy, the attack on Israel is imminent. US, which has been one of the most crucial factors for the middle east fiasco, has confirmed that Iran will attack Israel to the North or east by upcoming 24 hours. Going by Joe Biden’s word, the attack will be ‘sooner than later‘. Based on its intel, US has sent a warship in the region to protect Israel.
US advisory to it’s officials confirm the possibility of retaliation
This seems more happening as before opening up on intelligence, US had issued an advisory to it’s officials in Israel restricting them from travelling outside Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other major cities. Same happened during the recent Russian attack, when US issued advisory to it’s citizens sometime before the terrorist attack on the concert hall in Moscow. Evidently, the war has opened a Pandora’s box of events that has made the situation even more delicate each time. US’ interference in the region has only exacerbated the situation as it’s animosity with Iran made this one-on-one war between Israel and Hamas, a multifaceted one. However, Iran earlier has attacked Israeli and US assets through it’s proxies like Hezbollah, Houthis and IRI. But now, leave aside Iran backed militias, an Israeli attack on Iranian embassy in Syria has opened gateway for a direct Iranian involvement.
US creates confusion
US has, since the embassy attack, employed the tactic of ‘carrot and stick’ with on one hand, it asked countries like China to press Iran to refrain from taking any action while on the other, it gave a stern warning to Iran that it will support Israel in case it makes an attack. President Joe Biden has clearly stated that Israel can rely on the ‘Iron-clad’ backing of United States. But as history tells us, US can’t be relied upon such situations. Instead of condemning and setting Israel responsible for the embassy attack, US has committed to support it only because to initiate a direct conflict between Israel and Iran and weaken Iran in the process. It did the same with Ukraine. At first, it threatened Russia and when the latter reacted, US left Ukraine alone in the war with just weaponry and no military support.
Nevertheless, seeing the heightened tensions, India, France, Poland and Russia have also issued advisory to it’s citizens asking them not to travel to Israel or Iran.
Gulf waking up to reality
Reportedly, Iran has conveyed to the US that if it gets involved, Iran would attack it’s troops and bases in the region. And now Gulf countries have warned US to not use its bases on their soil for retaliation to Iranian response to Israel. Clearly countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and others are changing their mindset about Iran as they know regional peace can only be achieved with cooperation nit coercion. They are also moving to prevent US warplanes from flying over their airspace in the event the US conducts a retaliatory strike on Iran.
Certainly, lots of diplomacy is being played on and off the table by both Iran and US. Amidst the possibility of attack, even after 12 days of Iranian embassy fiasco, Iran has succeeded to maintain a strategic domination. While the attack is bound to happen, Iran’s fallout containment approach and stern warning leave large space of speculations open. Whatsoever, the attack is bound to happen, it is just the intensity of the attack and the subsequent reaction of Israel, that would decide the course of the conflict , which for now, seems to start spill over. On the contrary, the one who is providing oxygen to the conflict is only to benefit by maintaining it’s hegemony over Iran, the biggest contender of US in middle East.