Every barrel of oil that sails from Russia to India, every Yuan or Ruble swapped outside the dollar and every handshake between India and India-China-Russia tells a story. Outcome of these stories is — tariffs that were meant to isolate, ignited a hidden convergence. Tariffs supposed to be walls became a bridge. As leaders gather in Beijing for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, the stakes are far higher than the agenda printed on the official program. The SCO has increasingly become a litmus test for global power shifts, and this year all eyes are on India. The question is not only how New Delhi plays its hand, but also how Washington reacts. For the United States, the clock is ticking — it has barely 48 hours to decide whether to re-calibrate its approach or risk India hedging decisively towards Eurasia.
A Summit Bigger than Its Agenda
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and four Central Asian republics, has steadily grown in influence. With the entry of India and Pakistan in 2017 and Iran in 2023, the grouping now represents nearly 40% of the global population and close to 30% of global GDP. While it is not a military alliance like NATO, it provides an alternative platform for economic, security, and cultural cooperation rooted in Eurasian identity. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently described SCO as “the backbone of the multi-polar world order.” Unlike the QUAD, which reflects a maritime democratic alliance, the SCO is continental, economic, and security oriented. Its power lies in symbolism — a counterweight to
Western dominance.
From Tariffs to Trust Deficit: The US–India Story
India’s relationship with the US has oscillated between cooperation and confrontation. Several episodes highlight how Washington often treats New Delhi more transitionally than strategically.
* Tariff Wars (2018–19): The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum, prompting India to retaliate with duties on 28 American products, including California almonds and Washington apples. Trump famously declared at the G20: “India is the tariff king.”
* CAATSA Sanctions Threat (2019): India’s decision to buy Russian S-400 air defense systems invited threats of US sanctions. Yet, New Delhi stood firm. Washington eventually issued a waiver, underscoring India’s leverage.
* Visa Restrictions: H1B clampdowns under Trump hurt the Indian IT sector, eroding goodwill.
Each instance reinforced a pattern. Washington’s approach often appears conditional, pushing India into a balancing act rather than a partnership of trust.
India’s Strategic Autonomy in Action
India has long championed “strategic autonomy,” and recent events prove it is more than rhetoric.
* Russian Oil Purchases: From just 1% of imports in 2021, Russian crude now makes up over 38% of India’s basket. By buying discounted oil, India saves an estimated $5–7 billion annually, insulating its economy from global shocks.
* Jaishankar’s Moscow Visit (Nov 2022): With characteristic bluntness, India’s foreign minister reminded Europe: “Europe must grow out of the mindset that its problems are the world’s problems.”
* BRICS Summit 2023 (South Africa): India championed issues of the global south, from digital public goods to sustainable finance, signaling it would not be overshadowed by either Beijing or Washington.
This independence makes India a rare “swing power” in world politics — not fully Western, not fully Eurasian.
Why the Next 24 Hours Matter
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits are not static conferences. They are moments of fast-paced diplomacy, where bilateral and multilateral deals get stitched into the joint communiqué. In the next two days, India could:
* Sign new energy and infrastructure deals with Russia, Iran, and Kazakhstan.
* Accelerate work on the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), linking Indian ports to Russia via Iran.
* Deepen commitments to Chinese or Eurasian-led financial mechanisms, particularly if Washington continues pressure tactics.
The Chabahar Port Agreement with Iran (2024) stands as a precedent. Despite American objections, India signed a 10-year pact, signaling it will defy pressure when strategic imperatives demand.
The American Dilemma
Washington faces a tough choice.
* Treat India as a junior partner expected to align against Russia and China.
* Or embrace India as an independent pole in a multi-polar order.
The dilemma is visible in India’s “dual citizenship” of global blocs. In the Quad, India partners with the US, Japan, and Australia on Indo-Pacific issues. In the SCO, it sits with Russia, China, Iran, and even Pakistan. This duality strengthens India but frustrates Washington.
To “budge,” the US must move beyond tariffs and transactionalizm. It could:
* Drop tariffs on Indian exports like steel and IT services.
* Fast-track defense co-production (e.g., GE jet engines, MQ-9 drones).
* Share technologies in AI, semiconductors, and clean energy.
* Expand market access for Indian pharma and textiles.
If Washington stalls, India will lean deeper into SCO, BRICS+, and the Eurasian Economic Union.
What’s at Stake Globally
* For the US: Alienating India risks conceding Eurasia to a China–Russia axis, weakening its Indo-Pacific strategy.
* For India: Playing both sides boosts bargaining power, ensuring energy security, defense balance, and strategic space.
* For China: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) validates its leadership in a non-Western order.
* For Russia: India remains a vital buyer of energy and a partner in resisting Western sanctions.
Despite their differences, even adversaries use the SCO to keep dialogue alive — exemplified by the Modi–Xi handshake at Samarkand (2022) or Putin–Modi meetings during the Ukraine war.
The Final Countdown
The SCO Summit is not about ceremonial photo-ops or bland communiqués. It is about whether the world’s largest democracy asserts its weight in a bloc dominated by authoritarian powers — and how the US chooses to respond. The clock is ticking. In the next 48 hours, Washington can either show flexibility or watch India hedge further into a Eurasian order it cannot control. And in geopolitics, once the clock runs out, opportunities rarely return.