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Taiwan Crisis and Options for India

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar (Retd.)
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Taiwan Crisis and Options for India

In Part I (Ukraine War and Taiwan Crisis are manifestations of a changing global order), we analysed the changing international Order, which is the cause of all the geo-political turbulence, of which the Ukraine war is a direct manifestation. A prognosis of the ongoing war was carried out along with its impact on China, and how India has navigated the choppy waters adroitly. We move on and discuss the Taiwan crisis which too is a direct result of the changing global dynamics.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit: Catalyst to the Taiwan Crisis
US-China relations have been confrontationist and frosty for a while, with USA the current supremo wanting to continue with its unipolar ways, and China showcasing an alternate ideology and autocratic governance style (gathering some follower nations along the way); a worthy challenger none-the-less, wanting its deserved place at the high table, and moving aggressively with the intent of dethroning the King. After lots of threats and drama and much against the wishes of the Chinese government, and even President Biden and his staff and Pentagon, Nancy Pelosi the speaker of the Senate and third senior most US Government official made a whirlwind trip to Taiwan lasting less than 24 hours (02–03 August 2022) as part of a four nations Asian tour. The trip was symbolic showing solidarity with Taiwan; technically it was not an official state visit, but the strategic messaging and implications were huge. Both USA and China have resorted to brinkmanship, which could go horribly wrong. The crisis has not yet played out, with China conducting a tri-services, multi-domain live-fire exercise in the South China sea encircling Taiwan, with five missiles reported to have even landed in the EEZ of Japan. Moving aggressively and quickly Beijing also cancelled military calls between area commanders, defence meetings, and Chinese foreign minister twice stormed out of diplomatic gatherings attended by the US. China will no longer take part in talks on maritime safety, climate change and anti-drug efforts with USA. Personal sanctions against Pelosi and her family were also announced in response to what the Chinese Foreign Ministry called her “egregious provocations.”

China had ratcheted up potential confrontation weeks ago by declaring that the Taiwan Strait that separates the island from the mainland is not international waters. The US rejected this and responded by sending more vessels through it. USA obviously wanted to establish her dominance and showcase her power projection capabilities, especially when the world specially her allies began doubting US capabilities’, intent and will, watching US internal dynamics and ‘America First’ policy, accompanied by withdrawing/cooling off from Afghanistan, Syria and Middle East. Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen has responded in a mature, measured manner, firm but without brinkmanship, and once Pelosi landed accorded her the decorum reserved for a significant strategic leader, and even honoured her with Taiwan’s highest civilian award ‘Order of the Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon’. Concurrently and prudently, Taiwan has put itself on high alert, air raid shelters have been prepared and the government is increasing training for recruits serving their four months of required military service, considered inadequate along with annual two-week annual refresher courses for reservists.

Have both USA & China pre-planned exploitation of the Pelosi visit, or is it power rivalry playing out?

USA: In its NSS and NDS (National Security and Defence Strategy) right from 2018 onwards, USA has named China as its peer competitor and adversary, while concurrently identifying Russia, Iran and North Korea who are likely to disturb and challenge the established Order. Relations with China went into a tail spin ever since COVID. Long-simmering disputes over China’s human rights record and trade policies boiled over under Donald Trump, who instigated a tariff war with China and blamed the country for the coronavirus pandemic. Things have not improved under President Biden. China’s support for Russia in its war on Ukraine has annoyed Washington, adding to strains over Beijing’s aggressive efforts to win influence in the Indo-Pacific, South-Pacific, Africa and other regions; Chinese multi-domain espionage; and manoeuvres in the South China Sea; relentless crushing of dissent in Hong Kong and large scale human rights violations perpetrated in Xinjiang. Geo-politically and ideologically, China’s rise coupled with President Xi’s ambitions; increasing aggressive hegemonic tendencies; ascendance in the comprehensive national power (CNP-especially military) and global status index; interventions reaching global proportions due increasing power projection capabilities; have unsettled USA which as already stated sees China as a direct competitor, who has the will, capacity and capability to upstage USA if not thwarted urgently. Hence, a combination of competition and confrontation for multi-domain (PDIME – political, diplomatic, informational, military, economic) supremacy globally, is the root cause of global turbulence, especially in Asia which has been accepted as the pivotal continent for decades to come. While some nations mainly Asian (and within US too) have questioned the timing of Pelosi’s visit being too close to the 20th Congress of the CCP being held in November 2022, US compulsion was the repercussions on its international standing if it had backed out. Moreover, Chinese belligerent hyper-reactions including demonstrating its hard-military power, has worked in US favour, by alienating many nations who preferred to stay non-aligned in the US-China confrontation, and consolidated held perceptions of US allies.

China: China too has exploited this opportunity diplomatically, politically and militarily. China’s live fire exercise has showcased her ability to encircle and probably blockade the Taiwan Strait which has geo-strategic implications; it is one of the world’s busiest trade routes after all. The proximity of the action to ports and shipping lanes has forced supply line delays, a small taste of the pain China could inflict on Taiwan and world markets. We all know that Taiwan is ‘The leading producer’ of advanced semiconductors critical to products from cars to advanced weaponry. Tri-services, multi-domain (land, air, sea, amphibious, space, info-sphere) live fire exercises provided rehearsal for the actual invasion whenever launched. Mobilising and deployment of forces from outside the theatre, providing integration and interoperability experience, testing modern and new weapon systems both kinetic and non-kinetic (like radars, communications, electronic warfare), a big confidence boost with internal signalling to satisfy Chinese nationalists, finetuning operational and logistic plans including amphibious operations which are extremely complicated, are some of the strategic payoffs which have accrued thanks to the Pelosi visit. Experts globally specially from the USA have commented very favourable on the professionalism on the conduct of operations. Strategically, USA has signalled her strong intent and support to Taiwan when called upon, and China too has signalled her firm resolve to go to any lengths to maintain her ‘One China’ identity, even if it means using force against a global coalition led by USA. Whether both will follow through if and when war happens only time will tell. What has disturbed world leaders is that the probability of war has increased sharply after this visit, which could prove existential for the globe!

Most Asian and Global South Countries find themselves between a ‘rock and hard place’ post Pelosi visit. The unexpected escalation in tenuous US-China relations has left many nations nonplussed, uncomfortable and caught between a ‘rock and hard place’. Most nations except the traditional Western allies and Japan and Australia, do not wish to get caught up in this whirlpool (even South Korea has snubbed Pelosi by the President finding an excuse Not to meet her). Chinese over-heated reaction would have earned worldwide censure and condemnation, but nations are strangely quiet; probably many governments saw Pelosi’s visit as crossing a red line causing unnecessary and unwarranted strife in the region; similar to NATO encouraging and indicating willingness for Ukraine to join NATO. Shahriman Lockman, a director at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia said “Most Southeast Asian countries will view the United States as having provoked China’s entirely predictable overreaction.[i]” President Trump’s aggressive stance against China has been continued by Biden (much to the dismay of the Chinese), who has sought to build a broad coalition in Asia to push back against Chinese overreach, in part by telling smaller economies they don’t need to pick sides. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework which excluded China, unveiled by Biden during a visit to South Korea in May, was emblematic of the approach. Suddenly, Pelosi’s visit has touched a red line to take sides on the most obvious red flag/line of China; its ‘One China policy’, and most nations have blinked.  

Strategic Implications of Chinese Actions
“China probably doesn’t want to go to war to achieve its ends”. This below-threshold type of conflict, also called “grey-zone” warfare by security experts, is part of China’s playbook with Taiwan and countries in the region with which it has territorial disputes. The world and particularly India are all too familiar with its ‘salami slicing’ operational tactics coupled with its 3Ws strategy (an official political and information pre-kinetic warfare strategy of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) employing media or public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare). A blockade or a quarantine are scenarios that US and her allies and Asian nations are not ready for, and would find it tricky to respond. Taking a leaf from the US book, China also has turned to forms of economic coercion such as import bans on countries who have disagreements with China, viz Australia, Canada and others. An immediate casualty of the Pelosi visit were Chinese imports of Taiwanese citrus and other agricultural products[ii].

The Chinese have been anticipating a global blowback against her ever since COVID, aggravated by the support to Russia for the Ukraine war. China has unveiled earlier this year a new strategic framework, called the “Global Security Initiative (GSI)”[iii], which consolidates several strands of Beijing’s evolving conceptualisation of the global order. President Xi seeks to seize the narrative on global security away from the US and its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and discourage countries from joining ‘The Western Group’. He is showcasing an alternative international order centred around China: a force of stability and predictability in the face of an increasingly volatile and unpredictable USA, an innovator and leader in twenty-first-century global governance. This narrative is finding takers from nations frustrated by the current US-led Order, as also so-called illiberal regimes ruled by dictators or autocrats (Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, North Korea, Venezuela and Global South). Cemented on the China-Russia strategic partnership, China seeks to enlarge her favourable organisations like BRICS (Argentina, Iran officially applied, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey indicating interest) and SCO. Then there is this geo-politically vital issue of ‘currency change’ from the dollar, which has got a resurgence from allies and adversaries alike. Most geo-political observers are in consonance that China will grow even more aggressive after the Chinese Congress, once President Xi consolidates his power. Finally, to back everything up, is China’s blitzkrieg in diplomacy, and economic ramp up, and vitally – military capability and capacity development specially in hi-tech and niche arenas, in consonance with its superpower ‘China Dream’ ambitions.

Indian Options to Navigate the Taiwan Crisis within constraints of current turbulence in Global Order

India must be credited with navigating the choppy geo-political waters adroitly with its cornerstone policy of ‘strategic autonomy’. In a way, the Ukraine war and Taiwan crisis has got coupled geo-politically and diplomatically. The central actors are the same, mainly USA and China, and India does not wish to get involved in the emerging highly probable ‘cold war’ situation between USA and China. She seeks to avoid unnecessary confrontation with China at a sensitive time along the LAC, but doesn’t wish to claim allegiance to the “One China policy” either. Interestingly, India has not referred to the “One China” policy since at least 2010. Amid growing number of international reactions adversarial to India’s stance, New Delhi has chosen to maintain a “studied silence” on the unfolding situation, omitting any mention of it in diplomatic dialogues, including the latest talks held by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on the side-lines of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Phnom Penh. The decision to avoid discussion is obviously deliberate and a ‘diligently analysed one’. However, India can indeed derive lessons from the way Taiwan has reacted to the crisis.

India has finally and unequivocally accepted that China only understands the language of strength and intent, coupled with proactive actions on ground; which has been amply demonstrated in Doklam in 2019 and East Ladakh since 2020. Learning from the Taiwan Crisis and in consonance with shifting geo-political order, India needs to take more assured and confident steps. Firstly, we must specifically lay down red lines and our national position, specially regards our sovereignty and territorial integrity; failing which ‘salami slicing’ will continue and in fact increase. Secondly, it is time the government sets out the actual ground situation along the LAC without ambiguity. Failure to do so, will actually embolden China as neither the nation nor the World would know of Chinese perfidious actions. Thirdly, India needs to further consolidate, get more involved and strengthen alliances like QUAD, BRICS as a counter measure to China’s rising power and hegemonic tendencies. Fourthly, India must not feel compelled to appease China or be overcautious; after all China has grabbed our lands and doing every hostile action possible in all domains both kinetic and non-kinetic. A very important lesson related to the economic and trade domain; China has as much to lose if not more. The interdependency of China and Taiwan is far more; however, it did not deter either China or Taiwan to act on their national strategic interests.

Conclusion

The two-part article highlighted the changing global order, with USA and China vying for primacy and with neither willing to give a quarter. The competition and confrontation have become multi-domain be it political, economic, military, diplomatic or informational. The danger due to brinkmanship on both sides is the increasing probability of conflict in any part of the globe. The manifestation of this changing Order is clearly evident in the ongoing Ukraine war and Taiwan crisis. India with its own vulnerabilities and challenges, but with growing confidence and CNP, needs to look after its national interests and sovereignty by anticipating events and being nimble, which she has done admirably so far.

[i] Pelosi Trip Sets Back Biden’s Effort to Woo Asia Against China, by Sarah Zheng and Philip Heijmans, 09 Aug 22, Bloomberg Asia Edition, available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/pelosi-trip-hinders-biden-effort-to-galvanize-asia-against-china.

[ii] The New York Times, Opinion Today, 09 Aug 22, Yara Bayoumi, available at  https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox/WhctKKXgjGxmgLtwJVHhNPldHMjKvLGQHhfzvrtgHzvDxGthWHvlMlkLWkJfhwRxgtKbQvv.

[iii] China on the Offensive: How the Ukraine War Has Changed Beijing’s Strategy, by Bonny Lin and Jude Blanchette, August 01, 2022, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-offensive?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=China%20on%20the%20Offensive&utm_content=20220805&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017

How China preserved India’s cultural brilliance in Far history— Part 1

Prof Lokesh Chandra
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How China preserved India’s cultural brilliance in Far history— Part 1

Father, Prof. Raghu Vira studied Chinese at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London in 1928. He was impressed by the beauty and complexity of Chinese characters. He came from a background of Sanskrit philosophy and grammar. The Sanskrit grammar of Panini is very intricate. Father saw Panini in the complex visual forms of Chinese ideograms. At the same time, back home, India was seeking new dimensions to her freedom movement in terms of what would be the nature of the independent State.

China, Japan and other countries of East Asia were independent. One of the attraction points for father was to understand as to how Chinese civilization had been able to sustain her independence over five thousand years, as well as maintain her cultural identity. He was fond of chinoiserie and our home was overflowing with Chinese paintings, books and other objects.

I started learning Chinese characters in 1937 at the age of ten. I asked my father: where are the consonants and vowels in them? There are no letters like A, B, C, D? How do the Chinese read? Father had a book on the Chinese script by Karlgren titled Sounds and Symbols in Chinese published by the Oxford University press in 1929. It is a fascinating account of how the Chinese characters have evolved.

It shows how early pictographs were sophisticated into manifold characters: sometimes on the basis of phonetics and sometimes by putting two characters together, e.g. sun and moon for bright. Chinese language is not only complex but it is a mirror of their thinking processes. The addition of elucidative classifiers was great fun for me. The syllable shan means mountain as well as shirt. To surmount the difficulty a classifier is added: tso ‘site’ in i tso shan ‘one site mountain’ means a mountain, while kien ‘article of dress’ in i kien shan ‘one article shirt’ means a shirt. The simplicity of Chinese grammar and the absence of an involved syntactic structure are characteristic.

Father said it was not sufficient to study only Chinese characters to learn the language but it was important to practise Chinese calligraphy. Chinese calligraphy fascinated me. All other languages are written either with a pen or a pencil, but Chinese is calligraphed with a brush. It has its own aesthetic value. Chinese calligraphy gave me an insight into their aesthetics. When father visited China in 1955, Premier Chou Enlai gave him a brush. It was a gift from Chairman Mao Tsetung, with a poem of Chairman Mao sketched on it.Ours was the only Indian home lined with Chinese printed texts and rare woodprints. The wood-printed books were different from Indian books. Their binding style was pleasing, the print was clear and the paper was light. It had a feel different from the normal paper that we used. The texture of the paper showed that Chinese are a different people, a people who had treasured their classical identity both in the style of binding and in the manufacture of paper. They adored the perfume of their culture. Culture brings beauty to life; it is the aesthetics of life.

Sacred land and Sutras

Father asked me to read Chinese writings on India. The first book that I read was the travel account of Fa-hsien who came to India in 400 AD. Thereafter I read the other two Chinese pilgrims Hsüan-tsang and I-tsing in English and later on in Chinese. It was interesting to feel the devotion extraordinary of Chinese pilgrims to India. Despite having a developed language and a rich culture, they sought fine arts and philosophic thought in India. They wanted a cultural enrichment of hearts, minds, and aesthesis as a euphoric evolution of their mighty state. China has been the only continuous ‘nation state’ in the world for the last five thousand years, both conceptually and politically.

Moreover, it is a rare phenomenon that the Chinese have documented their history for these five thousand years in the Twenty-four Dynastic Annals till 1911. The contrast between India as a cultural entity with several kingdoms and China with more or less a single state conceptually is important to perceive the Chinese mindset. The Chinese historical tradition has lessons for us.About 3000 texts were translated from Sanskrit into Chinese from the 2nd to the 13th century. They are collected in the Chinese Tripitaka. Many of them have been lost in Sanskrit originals and so they are unique for Indian history. As a historian of lndia’s culture, father was fascinated by what he found in Chinese, as their Sanskrit originals had been lost. For him Chinese was a rich source on Indian art and thought, literature and history. About 250 Indian teachers went to China from the 2nd to the 13th century, till Islam conquered Central Asia when Buddhist monasteries were destroyed and the pilgrim route died down. He was curious to see how Chinese had preserved all these texts for such a long period of time. India’s archaeology would not be complete without Hsüan-tsang. When Alexander Cunningham mapped the archaeological sites in India in the 19th century, his patron saint scholar was Hsüan-tsang. Likewise Aurel Stein was also guided by Hsüan-tsang in his archaeological expeditions to Central Asia.Tagore went to China in the 1920s and was welcomed enthusiastically. Father was influenced by him and knew him personally. Sporadic correspondence was exchanged between them. Poet Tagore established the Cheena Bhavan at Shantiniketan and Chinese studies were initiated in India for the first time. Father collaborated with Poet Tagore to found the India-China Friendship Association.

Chinese poems and sketches of Ahimsa

Monk Feng Tzukai, a friend Of Chairman Mao, wrote poems and drew pictures on Ahimsa. Father translated its first volume in English. Feng Tzukai was a Buddhist monk, calligrapher and artist. A Chinese scholar did his doctorate thesis on his art some decades ago.

Ahimsa was a central concept in our freedom struggle. Gandhiji was impressed by this book and that the Chinese also believe in Ahimsa. Father wanted to strengthen Sino-Indian friendship on a cultural footing that could absorb the shocks of political misunderstandings. Gaps of communication could be tided over by such an approach and could generate an ambience that allows us to see beyond parochial politics.

Multiple identities operate in different domains of life. These poems were written in the context of Buddhism. The Chinese have a Confucian identity, enriched by a Buddhist identity. Their nonviolence is kindness to animals on special days. The vast Buddhist population of China is keen for pilgrimage to the Land of Lord Buddha. China always had a special place of respect in the minds of Mahatma Gandhi and Pandit Nehru as a great country, a neighbour and a cultural comrade. Father was a rare Indian who had studied the language and culture of China. The sinological expertise of father brought him respect at the national level. Mahatma Gandhi. Pt. Nehru and other leaders were thrilled by his narration of the fine details of India’s contacts with Chinese culture.

Three Monkeys of Mahatma Gandhi

Mahatma Gandhi had Japanese monks at his Ashram at Wardha. They were reciting the Chinese text of the Lotus Sutra or Saddharma-pundarika-sutra.Gandhiji wanted to know its Sanskrit original and English translation for which he invited father to Wardha. Father gave him both the Sanskrit original and its English translation. Gandhiji was happy to know that the Chinese had translated thousands of texts, and that too with devotion. Gandhiji had a long conversation with father, including the three monkeys on his table. The monkeys are sacred to Buddhism, as a monkey had made an offering to the Buddha and as a consequence he has reborn as the Great King Asoka. An offering mentioned in the Buddhist texts became so prominent in the culture of East Asia that the Three Monkeys found a place on the table of Mahatma Gandhi.

Ramayana in China via Samarkand

Father translated a brief version of the Ramayana from Chinese into English. It had been translated into Chinese from the Sanskrit Sat-paramita-sutra on the six perfections by monk K’ang Seng-hui of Samarkand in AD 251. Sanskrit was a language of international commerce and intellectual expression in Central Asia with which China had active Contacts. During the struggle against British imperialism. Indian scholarship thought of the global contacts of the country and father found Chinese studies a valuable tool to comprehend the international role of India in antiquity. Samarkand was an important centre for India-China exchanges.

People in Samarkand knew both Sanskrit and Chinese. The Buddhist monk-scholars of Samarkand translated several texts from Sanskrit into Chinese. Central Asian monks from other kingdoms also contributed to the spread of Indic traditions to China, because of their trade relations_ The horses Of Ferghana were sent for the Chinese cavalry. Buddhist monks came on these horses. Central Asian monks were expert horsemen. They knew to train them, to treat them if injured or ill. They became crucial to the Chinese defence system.

In 1983, I went to see the monastery where K’ang Seng-hui lived and wrote. The ancient monastic structure does not exist, but a new monastery has been constructed at the site to pay homage to him and to the long tradition of translating Buddhist Sutras.

(This article was first published in India Narrative)

Ukraine War and Taiwan Crisis are manifestations of a changing global order

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar (Retd.)
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Ukraine War and Taiwan Crisis are manifestations of a changing global order

India must remain nimble at a time when the global order is changing.

This is Part I of a two part article. In Part I this article talks about the changing geo-political order and the Ukraine war. Part II of the article will deal with the Taiwan crisis and India in changing times.

International Order is in a Flux
The world is facing a unique geo-political reality; it is neither an established unipolar, bipolar or multi-polar world. It is dynamic, turbulent, chaotic, unstable and unpredictable. The liberal, rules based, free market, globally institutionalised (UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO etc.), democratic order established by the USA has been disowned by its own creator, and those who followed and enforced it. Ironically, during the unipolar phase of US dominance, it was actually neither liberal or democratic, but rested on the dominance and economic, political, geo-strategic compulsions of the West (USA and its allies), where national sovereignty was ignored, and illiberal autocratic/dictatorial regimes were supported whenever required. Most of the world even if not agreeable including China and Russia generally followed the ‘Order’. However, of recent, the global response to climate change, COVID pandemic and economic debt crisis, Ukraine war has been disparate, incoherent and disturbingly individualistic.

All nations have started following President Trump’s call to Americans for ‘Nation First’; or rather feel compelled by circumstances to do so. There is growing apathy and distrust in the concept of free trade, in old alliances bilateral or multi-lateral, strategic, economic or military, making nations to breakout and pursue policies suiting their national interests. The unipolar world is undoubtedly changing; whether it will revert to a bipolar one (USA and China) or multi-polar, only time will tell. Regional powers like Russia (once a global power), Turkey, Iran, India, Nigeria, Brazil, Japan, France, Germany and UK in Europe, Australia would certainly like a piece of the global pie and are trying their best to expand their strategic influence and space; which naturally competes and confronts with other nations, sometimes leading to conflict over national interests. The manifestations of this turbulence can be seen in increasing belligerence and hegemonic actions of China in Asia (specially against India, South and East China Sea and Taiwan); Russian invasion of Ukraine; growing move to challenge the dollar as the global currency; thereby upending the current ‘order’. The worry is that the security environment will get worse before it gets better. There is a real danger of multiple shooting wars spreading due to unchecked brinkmanship and nationalism (many times the nation’s own creation of riding a nationalistic tiger) involving nuclear powers with unimaginable consequences.

Every nation is unhappy and wants a larger share: Revisionist tendencies
The most powerful and influential disruptor is China, with Russia following closely by exploiting the fallout to regain its pre-eminence. While China undoubtedly benefitted the most within the erstwhile order, it now wants to take “centrestage”, led by the autocratic, all powerful ambitious President Xi Jinping, initially in Asia and thereafter the world. China is willing to take multi-domain measures including the use of force to attain her ‘China Dream’. Large scale turbulence especially in Asia can be easily forecast in the years ahead, as the West led by USA is unlikely to allow this transition easily. The situation is made more complex by majority nations finding Chinese ideology and modus operandi inimical to their national interest, even within its immediate and extended neighbourhood (Vietnam, ASEAN countries, Japan, South Korea).

The Russian Resurgence
End of the Cold War also ended Russian pre-eminence as the bi-pole in the international order. Russia led by President Putin have never reconciled to the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent reduction in global influence. This feeling of isolation and deprivation was further aggravated by the unilateral eastwards expansion of NATO till it reached the stated ‘red line of Ukraine’. With ally China (no limit strategic partnership which is debatable) in support, and upward revision of its economic clout thanks to oil and gas, Putin feels confident of challenging NATO and upending the current international order specially in Europe permanently in its favour.

Global impact of changing ‘order’
The global South (poorer and developing nations specially from Africa and Asia) have long since lost faith in the international order. Woeful response to Covid and other pandemics, economic, energy and food security, never ending disasters, mineral extraction and exploitation, civil wars, interventions for regime change with selfish agendas have added to their grievances. Truthfully, many Western countries have been guilty of colonising/invading other countries, just like Russia has done. The support of these disadvantaged states for NATO in the Ukraine War and even Taiwan crisis can no longer be taken for granted; as some find the option of an alternative world order attractive and reliable. Hard military power has also got a boost. Entire Europe with special reference to Germany, Japan, South Korea and Australia, being economically strong and are now seeking to build up their military strength, and reassess their relationships with China and Russia. New partnerships like the AUKUS and I2U2 (India, Israel, USA, UAE) are springing up, while older ones like QUAD, BRICS, SCO have got a fillip. Many have a distinctive military alliance flavour. Credibility of all international institutions like the UN, IMF and WTO has been eroded, if not lost all together due to unilateral actions by the powerful. The Chinese and Russian example of state supremacy is proving to be beneficial to many nations. The globalized world economy is fragmenting into regional and bilateral trading blocks, with gradual decoupling of Hi-Tech, trade and disruptive armaments, and ever fiercer contention between the powers for economic and political primacy. In the process, a much more dangerous and militarised world is emerging[i]. India must take note that hard power is even more important today than ever before, despite the rapid emergence of non-kinetic domains, as indicators of comprehensive national power (CNP).

All nations are adopting Modi’s Mantra: Atmanirbharata
Most nations including the USA are turning inwards and choosing ‘atmanirbharata’ (self reliance), become economically and militarily self-reliant (not possible by all, thus adopting alliances). It will take some time maybe a decade before there is clarity in the form the international order will re-organise itself. Till then all nations especially India need to be nimble and look after their own interests.

Overview of the Ukraine War: Current strategic status

As pointed out, the Ukraine War is a direct outcome of the turbulent international Order. I shall only provide a strategic overview of the war, and spell out India’s options.

After its early military setbacks, Russia has regrouped in Ukraine and focused its offensive in the East and South, giving Moscow momentum as the War moves into an attrition mode. In this phase, Russia with its vast supply of artillery, armour and troops, now has an edge. Ukraine still holds potent advantages of its own due to a fierce will to fight, firm command and control of its forces and increasing supply of sophisticated, potent long-range weapon systems (HIMARS, long range guns and missiles, anti-tank and anti-aircraft, and Electronic warfare systems, 24×7 surveillance capability (provided by NATO) and effective PSYOPS and Information Warfare operations). According to a report published by The Economist[ii], the effect of the war in Ukraine on the global economy could lead to a staggering drop of $1 trillion in expected growth of the global GDP in 2022.

Russia’s Special Operations, launched into Ukraine on 24 February along the 350 miles from Belarus to the Black Sea, has largely narrowed these weeks to a 45-mile-wide assault on cities in the Donbas region. Putin’s initial war aims were “unconditional consideration for Russia’s legitimate interests in the sphere of security, including recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, achieving the objectives of the Ukrainian state’s demilitarization and denazification, and ensuring its neutral status.” However, on 29 June 2022 Putin stated that the “ultimate aim” of the Russian war in Ukraine is “the liberation of the Donbas, the defence of its people, and the creation of conditions which would guarantee the security of Russia itself.” This is a step back from the goals he proclaimed in the beginning: some nations still feel that Putin’s final strategic aims are larger, but he is willing to phase them out. This implies settling for control over four provinces in Southern and Eastern Ukraine, which accounts for 20% of Ukraine’s land mass, and where most of its industrial and economic base lies.

Currently it appears that Ukraine would have to relinquish Crimea permanently; its goal of NATO membership, but also its aim to become a European Union (EU) member; and remain in Russia’s sphere of “privileged interest”. The Russian and Ukraine Governments are prepared for a long campaign. Ukraine is preparing counter offensives mainly in the South to retake Kherson and subsequently other areas, mainly due to renewed potent weapons support by NATO, while Russia hopes to consolidate its gains and stabilise both its Eastern and Southern fronts.

Only a realistic negotiation strategy has a chance to achieve sustainable peace. Two major assumptions are that Russia will settle for what it has now, and the Ukrainians are ready to lose lost ground. Both assumptions specially the latter may be considered unrealistic. Thus, even if the Ukrainians were prepared to negotiate now (opinion polls[iii] and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have negated it), it may not end conclusively. A cease-fire that allows Ukraine to regain its strength may be useful; it would certainly save at least some lives in the near term. Long-term peace, however, will require more creative (and, perhaps, brutally pragmatic realism) thinking, not least because freezing Russian control of 20 percent of Ukraine will lead to renewed conflict. Negotiators need to think about not just how to stop the fighting, but how to prevent it from recurring in future. Some NATO nations feel that one way is to arm Ukraine so heavily that it deters Russia from attacking again, while concurrently applying relentless pressure on Russia including debilitating sanctions. A very costly proposition indeed: President Zelensky told the NATO Summit that Ukraine needed around $5 billion per month for its fight against Russia, in addition to the $100 billion that donors already have committed to Ukraine’s overall support. The war and its colossal multi-domain impact especially economic, energy and food criticalities has already tested the EU, NATO and global support to Ukraine. Other imaginative ideas and out of the box ideas needs to be thought and talked out.

The Chinese and Indian Stance

China
The Ukraine war initially appeared to put China on the backfoot, given its stance on sovereignty of nations including its own on Taiwan, as also the likely fallout on its tenuously built friendly relations with the globe. Chinese messaging was stilted and confused as Chinese diplomats, propagandists, and foreign ministry spokespersons themselves tried to figure out strategic implications, and more importantly President Xi Jinping’s line on the conflict. However, now that six months have passed with conflict on an attrition mode, China is stabilising. China would prefer a clear Russian victory, but NATO specially USA exhausting its military stocks coupled with enormous economic costs incurred is a good enough payoff[iv]. In addition, longer the war progresses, the support to Ukraine and corresponding unity of nations will come under severe strain. The war has certainly cost China its reputation globally, but the South and few nations are still undecided. Interestingly, increasing global bellicosity against China specially from the West, may actually compel China to also get more aggressive geo-politically. China is aware that the Ukraine war has also brought Taiwan into the spotlight, with the USA getting increasingly confrontationist; and trying to muster global support (strategic partnerships like QUAD, I2U2, AUKUS); with adverse consequences on China’s ultimate aim of amalgamating Taiwan into China as part of its stated ‘One China’ policy. President Xi has also announced the ‘Global Security Initiative (GSI)’ as a counter-measure to enhance its global influence (more about this in Part II).

Indian Options to Navigate the Ukraine War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has come at an inopportune time for India. For a country still recovering from the debilitating onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the India-China LAC standoff, the Ukraine war has thrown up major economic, strategic and geopolitical challenges. While India may have responded in the optimum nuanced way possible, balancing its immediate and long-term interests, it has been under criticism by the US and the Western world. Of the four potential options of unequivocally condemning Russian aggression; supporting Russia; remain silent or express displeasure (short of condemning); or call for diplomatic manoeuvres for resolution, India chose what it perceived best in her national interest: a mix of the third and fourth option. Most Ukraine supporting nations while understanding India’s stance still feel that it is a pro-Russia stance because India has not condemned an unjustifiable war.

India’s stand has evolved over the years
India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine standoff has evolved over the years. When Russia invaded and subsequently annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, the then National Security Advisor, Shiv Shankar Menon, stated “We are watching what is happening in Ukraine with concern… The broader issues of reconciling various interests (are) involved and there are, after all, legitimate Russian and other interests involved and we hope those are discussed, negotiated and there is a satisfactory resolution to them.” His remarks were further qualified by the then prime minister Manmohan Singh who subsequently highlighted India’s position on the “unity and territorial integrity” of countries and hoped a diplomatic solution would be found to the issue. Singh also hoped that all sides would exercise restraint and work together“ constructively to find political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensure long-term peace and stability in Europe and beyond.”

India has been more specific now by way of putting out explanatory notes for its vote/stance. In diplomatic parlance, India’s stance has been clear about Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ stated in April 2022 after both Indian and Russian Foreign Ministers met that the “MEA emphasised the importance of cessation of violence and ending hostilities. Differences and disputes should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy and by respect for international law, UN Charter, sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.” Mr Jaishankar went on to state in Parliament, “We are, first and foremost, strongly against the conflict. We believe that no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood and at the cost of innocent lives. In this day and age, dialogue and diplomacy are the right answers to any disputes. And this should bear in mind that the contemporary global order has been built on the UN Charter, on respect for international law, and for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. If India has chosen a side, it is the side of peace and it is for an immediate end to violence. This is our principled stand and it has consistently guided our position in international forums and debates including in the United Nations”[v]. However, the thinking within the Indian strategic community has been somewhat ‘sympathetic’, if not supportive, of Russia. In strategic matters, Indians generally tend to think that Russia is a steadfast supporter of Indian interests internationally. This general empathy appears to be somewhat widely shared across various segments of the society. This might undergo a change if the war drags on, but for the moment, the warmth of the historical India-Russia relations seems to outweigh the sympathy for the Ukrainian victims of the war.

Changing International Order impacts Decision Making
The weakening US-led Asian regional order in the wake of the American and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan; the potential shrinking of their interests in the Middle East, indicates reduced US interest and capacity to shape or intervene in the regional geopolitical outcomes in some of Asia’s key theatres such as South Asia, Central Asia and Middle East, among others, which are of great significance to India. This could lead to a rising China eager to fill the vacuum. Understandably, given the disparity in CNP (comprehensive national power) between India and China, the strategic partnership between China and Russia, the current relations hitting a nadir with a volatile LAC situation, India needs to take a holistic measured view. India is intrinsically ‘pro-West’, but is caught in the complex web of geo-strategic realities, which includes a unstable security environment in its not so friendly immediate neighbourhood. India is justified in being wary of the Western (specially USA) biases and increasing proclivity to acting selfishly for their own interests at even their allies cost. It is important to point out that many other nations globally are increasingly following the India lead.

Conclusion 
The dynamic international environment is creating a complex web where every nation is compelled to safeguard their national interests. The world is in a flux and will take time to stabilise. The Ukraine war has settled into a war of attrition with no clear victors, but has accelerated the aggressive manoeuvres of powerful nations from both sides of the divide, amply highlighted by the Ukraine and Taiwan crisis. Both confrontations could lead to global conflict! India has managed to navigate the troubled waters very adroitly so far. As an emerging regional power, with her own complex vulnerabilities, India has to navigate nimbly and with confidence, in consonance with her national interests and continue with its present policy of ‘strategic autonomy’.  

[i] Nobody Wants the Current World Order: How All the Major Powers—Even the United States—Became Revisionists, by Shivshankar Menon, Foreign Affairs, August 3, 2022 available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/nobody-wants-current-world-order?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=China%20on%20the%20Offensive&utm_content=20220805&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017. Accessed on 08 Aug 22

[ii] By how much will the war in Ukraine reduce global growth?, The Economist, 04 August 22, available at https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/08/04/by-how-much-will-the-war-in-ukraine-reduce-global-growth. Accessed on 07 Aug 22.

[iii] Ukraine: most people refuse to compromise on territory, but willingness to make peace depends on their war experiences – new survey, 15 June 22, The Conversation, available at https://theconversation.com/ukraine-most-people-refuse-to-compromise-on-territory-but-willingness-to-make-peace-depends-on-their-war-experiences-new-survey-185147. Accessed on 07 Aug 22.

[iv] China on the Offensive: How the Ukraine War Has Changed Beijing’s Strategy, by Bonny Lin and Jude Blanchette, August 01, 2022, Foreign Affairs, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-offensive?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=China%20on%20the%20Offensive&utm_content=20220805&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017. Accessed on 08 Aug 2022

[v] India’s balancing act in the Ukraine war, by Happymon Jacob, 13 May 22, The Green Political Foundation, available at https://www.boell.de/en/2022/05/13/indias-balancing-act-ukraine-war#_edn1. Accessed on 08 Aug 22.

POK Kashmiris reject Pakistan’s proposal

News Intervention Bureau
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POK Kashmiris reject Pakistan’s proposal

In Islamabad, the all Parties Conference on Occupied Kashmir  unanimously decided that the 13th  amendment to the Interim Constitution Act 74 imposed by the State of Pakistan is in accordance with the public aspirations and that no attempt to take away the powers conferred by this amendment will be accepted.

However,it should be remembered, that as a result of the 13th Amendment, the establishment and congregation of any political party, organization, group that does not believe in Pakistan’s accession in this region has been declared illegal.In order to register a political party, it has been declared necessary to submit an affidavit of belief in the accession of Pakistan and to keep the idea of accession of Pakistan as the objective. Further, the privileges and looting by the ruling elite have continued by collecting unnecessary taxes on electricity bills.Taxes collected in all other heads have not yet provided any basic facilities and employment to the people of the region, which clearly shows that this amendment is only  financially beneficial to the local ruling elite.As a result of the same amendment, the non-sectarian role of this government has been abolished as per the Declaration of 24 October.As far as legislative powers are concerned, according to this amendment, the power to legislate on 32 out of 54 subjects has been given directly to the Prime Minister of Pakistan.While 22 subjects can be legislated by the local assembly but only after the prior consent or approval of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. After this came to light, there has been a strong reaction from the pro-freedom leaders of occupied Kashmir.According to them,the decision makers of occupied Kashmir in Islamabad are actually supporting Pakistan in keeping  the people of POK as slaves, which has angered the people and protests have erupted in POK.

Prof. Vaknin on Gut Feelings and Intuition

Scott Douglas Jacobsen
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Prof. Vaknin on Gut Feelings and Intuition

 Prof. Shmuel “Sam” Vaknin (YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Amazon, LinkedIn, Google Scholar) is the author of Malignant Self-love: Narcissism Revisited (Amazon) and After the Rain: How the West Lost the East (Amazon) as well as many other books and ebooks about topics in psychology, relationships, philosophy, economics, international affairs, and award-winning short fiction. He was Senior Business Correspondent for United Press International (February, 2001 – April, 2003), CEO of Narcissus Publications (April, 1997 – April 2013), Editor-in-Chief of Global Politician (January, 2011 -), a columnist for PopMatters, eBookWeb, Bellaonline, and Central Europe Review, an editor for The Open Directory and Suite101 (Categories: Mental Health and Central East Europe), and a contributor to Middle East Times, a contributing writer to The American Chronicle Media Group, Columnist and Analyst for Nova Makedonija, Fokus, and Kapital, Founding Analyst of The Analyst Network, former president of the Israeli chapter of the Unification Church‘s Professors for World Peace Academy, and served in the Israeli Defense Forces (1979-1982). He has been awarded Israel’s Council of Culture and Art Prize for Maiden Prose (1997), The Rotary Club Award for Social Studies (1976), and the Bilateral Relations Studies Award of the American Embassy in Israel (1978), among other awards. He is Visiting Professor of Psychology, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia (September, 2017 to present), Professor of Finance and Psychology in SIAS-CIAPS (Centre for International Advanced and Professional Studies) (April, 2012 to present), a Senior Correspondent for New York Daily Sun (January, 2015 – Present), and Columnist for Allied Newspapers Group (January, 2015 – Present). He lives in Skopje, North Macedonia with his wife, Lidija Rangelovska. Here we talk about gut feelings and intuition.

*Previous interviews listed chronologically after interview.*

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What differentiates intuitions from gut feelings if at all?

Prof. Shmuel “Sam” Vaknin: Gut feeling is immediate and nebulous. Intuition takes longer to form and feels more precise, incisive, and certain.

Jacobsen: How much of knowledge is filtered, processed, and prefabricated non-consciously and then presented to a conscious arena/awareness for decision-making?

Vaknin: There are three types of intuition.

Eidetic Intuitions

Intuition is supposed to be a form of direct access. Yet, direct access to what? Does it access directly “intuitions” (abstract objects, akin to numbers or properties – see “Bestowed Existence”)? Are intuitions the objects of the mental act of Intuition? Perhaps intuition is the mind’s way of interacting directly with Platonic ideals or Phenomenological “essences”? By “directly” I mean without the intellectual mediation of a manipulated symbol system, and without the benefits of inference, observation, experience, or reason.

Kant thought that both (Euclidean) space and time are intuited. In other words, he thought that the senses interact with our (transcendental) intuitions to produce synthetic a-priori knowledge. The raw data obtained by our senses -our sensa or sensory experience – presuppose intuition. One could argue that intuition is independent of our senses. Thus, these intuitions (call them “eidetic intuitions”) would not be the result of sensory data, or of calculation, or of the processing and manipulation of same. Kant’s “Erscheiung” (Sic!) – the “phenomenon”, or “appearance” of an object to the senses – is actually a kind of sense-intuition later processed by the categories of substance and cause. As opposed to the phenomenon, the “nuomenon” (thing in itself) is not subject to these categories.

Descartes’ “I (think therefore I) am” is an immediate and indubitable innate intuition from which his metaphysical system is derived. Descartes’ work in this respect is reminiscent of Gnosticism in which the intuition of the mystery of the self leads to revelation.

Bergson described a kind of instinctual empathic intuition which penetrates objects and persons, identifies with them and, in this way, derives knowledge about the absolutes – “duration” (the essence of all living things) and “élan vital” (the creative life force). He wrote: “(Intuition is an) instinct that has become disinterested, self-conscious, capable of reflecting upon its object and of enlarging it indefinitely.” Thus, to him, science (the use of symbols by our intelligence to describe reality) is the falsification of reality. Only art, based on intuition, unhindered by mediating thought, not warped by symbols – provides one with access to reality.

Spinoza’s and Bergson’s intuited knowledge of the world as an interconnected whole is also an “eidetic intuition”.

Spinoza thought that intuitive knowledge is superior to both empirical (sense) knowledge and scientific (reasoning) knowledge. It unites the mind with the Infinite Being and reveals to it an orderly, holistic, Universe.

Friedrich Schleiermacher and Rudolf Otto discussed the religious experience of the “numinous” (God, or the spiritual power) as a kind of intuitive, pre-lingual, and immediate feeling.

Croce distinguished “concept” (representation or classification) from “intuition” (expression of the individuality of an objet d’art). Aesthetic interest is intuitive. Art, according to Croce and Collingwood, should be mainly concerned with expression (i.e., with intuition) as an end unto itself, unconcerned with other ends (e.g., expressing certain states of mind).

Eidetic intuitions are also similar to “paramartha satya” (the “ultimate truth”) in the Madhyamika school of Buddhist thought. The ultimate truth cannot be expressed verbally and is beyond empirical (and illusory) phenomena. Eastern thought (e.g. Zen Buddhism) uses intuition (or experience) to study reality in a non-dualistic manner.

IB. Emergent Intuitions

A second type of intuition is the “emergent intuition”. Subjectively, the intuiting person has the impression of a “shortcut” or even a “short circuiting” of his usually linear thought processes often based on trial and error. This type of intuition feels “magical”, a quantum leap from premise to conclusion, the parsimonious selection of the useful and the workable from a myriad possibilities. Intuition, in other words, is rather like a dreamlike truncated thought process, the subjective equivalent of a wormhole in Cosmology. It is often preceded by periods of frustration, dead ends, failures, and blind alleys in one’s work.

Artists – especially performing artists (like musicians) – often describe their interpretation of an artwork (e.g., a musical piece) in terms of this type of intuition. Many mathematicians and physicists (following a kind of Pythagorean tradition) use emergent intuitions in solving general nonlinear equations (by guessing the approximants) or partial differential equations.

Henri Poincaret insisted (in a presentation to the Psychological Society of Paris, 1901) that even simple mathematical operations require an “intuition of mathematical order” without which no creativity in mathematics is possible. He described how some of his creative work occurred to him out of the blue and without any preparation, the result of emergent intuitions.

These intuitions had “the characteristics of brevity, suddenness and immediate certainty… Most striking at first is this appearance of sudden illumination, a manifest sign of long, unconscious prior work. The role of this unconscious work in mathematical invention appears to me incontestable, and traces of it would be found in other cases where it is less evident.”

Subjectively, emergent intuitions are indistinguishable from insights. Yet insight is more “cognitive” and structured and concerned with objective learning and knowledge. It is a novel reaction or solution, based on already acquired responses and skills, to new stimuli and challenges. Still, a strong emotional (e.g., aesthetic) correlate usually exists in both insight and emergent intuition.

Intuition and insight are strong elements in creativity, the human response to an ever changing environment. They are shock inducers and destabilizers. Their aim is to move the organism from one established equilibrium to the next and thus better prepare it to cope with new possibilities, challenges, and experiences. Both insight and intuition are in the realm of the unconscious, the simple, and the mentally disordered. Hence the great importance of obtaining insights and integrating them in psychoanalysis – an equilibrium altering therapy.

Kazimierz Dąbrowski’s theory of positive disintegration (TPD) posits that angst (existentialist tension and anxiety) not only induces growth, but is a necessary condition for it. Disintegrative processes are desirable. The absence of positive disintegration results in a fixated state of “primary (not secondary) integration”, without true individuality. One’s developmental potential, especially one’s overexcitabilities (abnormally strong reactions to stimuli) determine the potential for positive disintegration. Overexcitability (OE) is a heightened physiological experience of stimuli resulting from increased neuronal sensitivities.

Like Jordan Peterson, Dabrowski regards suffering – including the self-inflicted kind – as a key to both progress and healing. Personality shaping depends on socialization and on peer pressure (second factor). Strict unthinking and unwavering adherence creates robopaths (von Bertalanffy). Disintegartion requires countering social signalling and pressures which, I suggest, are mostly detected intuitively. Intuition, therefore, plays a key part in the regulation of these processes.

IC. Ideal Intuitions

The third type of intuition is the “ideal intuition”. These are thoughts and feelings that precede any intellectual analysis and underlie it. Empathy may be such an intuitive mode applied to the minds of other people, yielding an intersubjective agreement. Moral ideals and rules may be such intuitions (see “Morality – a State of Mind?”).

Mathematical and logical axioms and basic rules of inference (“necessary truths”) may also turn out to be intuitions. These moral, mathematical, and logical self-evident conventions do not relate to the world. They are elements of the languages we use to describe the world (or of the codes that regulate our conduct in it). It follows that these a-priori languages and codes are nothing but the set of our embedded ideal intuitions. This is why we can be pretty certain that the language of mathematics is inadequate and insufficient to capture reality or even the laws of nature.

As the Rationalists realized, ideal intuitions (a class of undeniable, self-evident truths and principles) can be accessed by our intellect. Rationalism is concerned with intuitions – though only with those intuitions available to reason and intellect. Sometimes, the boundary between intuition and deductive reasoning is blurred as they both yield the same results. Moreover, intuitions can be combined to yield metaphysical or philosophical systems. Descartes applied ideal intuitions (e.g., reason) to his eidetic intuitions to yield his metaphysics. Husserl, Twardowski, even Bolzano did the same in developing the philosophical school of Phenomenology.

The a-priori nature of intuitions of the first and the third kind led thinkers, such as Adolf Lasson, to associate it with Mysticism. He called it an “intellectual vision” which leads to the “essence of things”. Earlier philosophers and theologians labeled the methodical application of intuitions – the “science of the ultimates”. Of course, this misses the strong emotional content of mystical experiences.

Confucius talked about fulfilling and seeking one’s “human nature” (or “ren”) as “the Way”. This nature is not the result of learning or deliberation. It is innate. It is intuitive and, in turn, produces additional, clear intuitions (“yong”) as to right and wrong, productive and destructive, good and evil. The “operation of the natural law” requires that there be no rigid codex, but only constant change guided by the central and harmonious intuition of life.

Intuition is a topic that concerned many philosophers throughout the ages.

IIA. Locke

But are intuitions really a-priori – or do they develop in response to a relatively stable reality and in interaction with it? Would we have had intuitions in a chaotic, capricious, and utterly unpredictable and disordered universe? Do intuitions emerge to counter-balance surprises?

Locke thought that intuition is a learned and cumulative response to sensation. The assumption of innate ideas is unnecessary. The mind is like a blank sheet of paper, filled gradually by experience – by the sum total of observations of external objects and of internal “reflections” (i.e., operations of the mind). Ideas (i.e., what the mind perceives in itself or in immediate objects) are triggered by the qualities of objects.

But, despite himself, Locke was also reduced to ideal (innate) intuitions. According to Locke, a colour, for instance, can be either an idea in the mind (i.e., ideal intuition) – or the quality of an object that causes this idea in the mind (i.e., that evokes the ideal intuition). Moreover, his “primary qualities” (qualities shared by all objects) come close to being eidetic intuitions.

Locke himself admits that there is no resemblance or correlation between the idea in the mind and the (secondary) qualities that provoked it. Berkeley demolished Locke’s preposterous claim that there is such resemblance (or mapping) between PRIMARY qualities and the ideas that they provoke in the mind. It would seem therefore that Locke’s “ideas in the mind” are in the mind irrespective and independent of the qualities that produce them. In other words, they are a-priori. Locke resorts to abstraction in order to repudiate it.

Locke himself talks about “intuitive knowledge”. It is when the mind “perceives the agreement or disagreement of two ideas immediately by themselves, without the intervention of any other… the knowledge of our own being we have by intuition… the mind is presently filled with the clear light of it. It is on this intuition that depends all the certainty and evidence of all our knowledge… (Knowledge is the) perception of the connection of and agreement, or disagreement and repugnancy, of any of our ideas.”

Knowledge is intuitive intellectual perception. Even when demonstrated (and few things, mainly ideas, can be intuited and demonstrated – relations within the physical realm cannot be grasped intuitively), each step in the demonstration is observed intuitionally. Locke’s “sensitive knowledge” is also a form of intuition (known as “intuitive cognition” in the Middle Ages). It is the perceived certainty that there exist finite objects outside us. The knowledge of one’s existence is an intuition as well. But both these intuitions are judgmental and rely on probabilities.

IIB. Hume

Hume denied the existence of innate ideas. According to him, all ideas are based either on sense impressions or on simpler ideas. But even Hume accepted that there are propositions known by the pure intellect (as opposed to propositions dependent on sensory input). These deal with the relations between ideas and they are (logically) necessarily true. Even though reason is used in order to prove them – they are independently true all the same because they merely reveal the meaning or information implicit in the definitions of their own terms. These propositions teach us nothing about the nature of things because they are, at bottom, self referential (equivalent to Kant’s “analytic propositions”).

IIC. Kant

According to Kant, our senses acquaint us with the particulars of things and thus provide us with intuitions. The faculty of understanding provided us with useful taxonomies of particulars (“concepts”). Yet, concepts without intuitions were as empty and futile as intuitions without concepts. Perceptions (“phenomena”) are the composite of the sensations caused by the perceived objects and the mind’s reactions to such sensations (“form”). These reactions are the product of intuition.

IID. The Absolute Idealists

Schelling suggested a featureless, undifferentiated, union of opposites as the Absolute Ideal. Intellectual intuition entails such a union of opposites (subject and object) and, thus, is immersed and assimilated by the Absolute and becomes as featureless and undifferentiated as the Absolute is.

Objective Idealists claimed that we can know ultimate (spiritual) reality by intuition (or thought) independent of the senses (the mystical argument). The mediation of words and symbol systems only distorts the “signal” and inhibits the effective application of one’s intuition to the attainment of real, immutable, knowledge.

IIE. The Phenomenologists

The Phenomenological point of view is that every thing has an invariable and irreducible “essence” (“Eidos”, as distinguished from contingent information about the thing). We can grasp this essence only intuitively (“Eidetic Reduction”). This process – of transcending the concrete and reaching for the essential – is independent of facts, concrete objects, or mental constructs. But it is not free from methodology (“free variation”), from factual knowledge, or from ideal intuitions. The Phenomenologist is forced to make the knowledge of facts his point of departure. He then applies a certain methodology (he varies the nature and specifications of the studied object to reveal its essence) which relies entirely on ideal intuitions (such as the rules of logic).

Phenomenology, in other words, is an Idealistic form of Rationalism. It applies reason to discover Platonic (Idealism) essences. Like Rationalism, it is not empirical (it is not based on sense data). Actually, it is anti-empirical – it “brackets” the concrete and the factual in its attempt to delve beyond appearances and into essences. It calls for the application of intuition (Anschauung) to discover essential insights (Wesenseinsichten).

“Phenomenon” in Phenomenology is that which is known by consciousness and in it. Phenomenologists regarded intuition as a “pure”, direct, and primitive way of reducing clutter in reality. It is immediate and the basis of a higher level perception. A philosophical system built on intuition would, perforce, be non speculative. Hence, Phenomenology’s emphasis on the study of consciousness (and intuition) rather than on the study of (deceiving) reality. It is through “Wesensschau” (the intuition of essences) that one reaches the invariant nature of things (by applying free variation techniques).

Jacobsen: Is this a large part of intuition and/or gut feelings if inclusive of the filtration, processing, and prefabrication, of information from physiology – the body – too? I do not necessarily mean extensive amounts of time – could be fractions of a second – from input to presentation to consciousness (conscious awareness).

Vaknin: There is no question that input from the body is crucial to the formation of intuitions. The sensa (sensory inputs) are only one part of it. Autonomous reactions – such as heartbeat or perspiration – also figure into the equation. As we try to make sense of these corporeal data, we often come up with a heuristic or a narrative and most of the time we perceive the outcomes of these attempts as gut feelings or intuitions.

Jacobsen: When something feels wrong to an individual, how is this justifiable in considering the “something” as wrong in and of itself, or wrong in interpretation of an individual (more likely than not a fallible individual)? Are there moments when these feelings of wrongness about something are themselves inaccurate – following more generally from part of the last question?

Vaknin: Intuition is wrong as often as right. It is a shaky foundation for decision making. But it is a reliable signal that further research and investigation are called for.

Intuition should not be confused with either emotions or cognitions. They are an amalgam of both but they are a form of anxiety reaction, a variant of hypervigilance.

Jacobsen: When someone is trying to force-fit a relationship, a friendship, a marital situation, a professional arrangement, why is this a sign of inauthenticity, a fake?

Vaknin: Authenticity consists of being yourself even when you adhere to social strictures, norms, and mores or when you are trying to meet expectations and obligations. Feeling good about your choice to conform and act responsibly, reliably, and predictably (ego syntony).

If the sum total of an engagement with others causes you acute discomfort (ego dystony or dissonance) – this is a sign that you are betraying yourself somehow and, therefore, being inauthentic.

Watch “Being is Slavery, Nothingness is Freedom (Sartre’s “Being and Nothingness”, FIRST LECTURE)”

Watch “Relationships Always Fail, Inauthentic (Sartre’s “Being and Nothingness”, SECOND LECTURE)”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFvRcB1MOWM

Jacobsen: Grandiose claims are made all the time. Those claims too good to be true. Why are the “too good to be true” more likely to be false than true?

Vaknin: Splitting is an infantile psychological defense mechanism: the baby divides the world into all good and all bad. Of course, this is counterfactual: there is good and bad, right and wrong, helpful and obstructive in everything and in everyone.

So, “too good to be true” is an outcome of splitting coupled with magical thinking (the delusion that your willpower or thoughts affect reality even without any commensurate action). It is the offspring of a pathology of impaired reality testing.

Jacobsen: Why are we prone to believing things people say far more often than not, when people lie all the time in little and big ways?

Vaknin: This is known as the base rate fallacy. This cognitive distortion aims to resolve a cognitive dissonance: I know that people lie but I want to trust them all the time in order to feel safe.

It stems from the same pathological roots which involve grandiosity magical thinking: other people are all good and can be always trusted because I am all-powerful and immune to harm as well as all-knowing and so, I cannot be conned.

Trusting other people is the optimal strategy when you are the omniscient and omnipotent master of the Universe: investing in research and investigation would be wasteful.

Jacobsen: Should we make decisions immediately based on gut feelings and intuitions or over a reasonable amount of time making incremental, moderate changes/decisions based on increasing feedback from the processes colloquially called “gut feelings” and “intuitions”?

Vaknin: We should definitely listen to gut feelings and intuitions. They are telling us that something has gone awry with the way we perceive reality. This alert bears careful investigation and research.

But I would not act on my intuition or gut feeling unless and until I have delved deeper into what it is that is nagging at me.

Jacobsen: How can intuitions and gut feelings, ultimately, save us from our conscious delusions?

Vaknin: Intuitions and gut feelings are a poor guide in this sense because, as I said, as often as not, they turn out to have been wrong. Some intuitions are delusional!

Shoshanim: Thanks so much for the time and opportunity, Prof. Sam (Wise Gamgee).

Shoshanim’s Shoshanim: I have an intuition that you actually mean it this time!

Previous Electronic ‘Print’ Interviews (Hyperlinks Active for Titles)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Narcissism in General”

(News Intervention: January 28, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Cold Therapy (New Treatment Modality)”

(News Intervention: January 30, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Giftedness and IQ”

(News Intervention: February 2, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Religion”

(News Intervention: February 11, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Science and Reality”

(News Intervention: April 30, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on the Gender Wars”

(News Intervention: May 21, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Psychological Growth”

(News Intervention: May 24, 2022)

“Prof. Sam Vaknin on Structure, Function, Society, and Survival”

(News Intervention: May 26, 2022)

“Prof. Vaknin on Chronon Field Theory and Time Asymmetry”

(News Intervention: May 28, 2022)

“Prof. Vaknin on Genius and Insanity”

(News Intervention: June 1, 2022)

“Prof. Vaknin on Freedom of Expression”

(News Intervention: June 10, 2022)

“Prof. Vaknin on Misogyny and Misandry”

(News Intervention: June 20, 2022)

“Prof. Vaknin on Victimization and Victim Identity Movements”

(News Intervention: July 27, 2022)

Previous Interviews Read by Prof. Vaknin (Hyperlinks Active for Titles)

“How to Become the REAL YOU (Interview, News Intervention)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: January 26, 2022)

“Insider View on Narcissism: What Makes Narcissist Tick (News Intervention)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: January 29, 2022)

“Curing Your Narcissist (News Intervention Interview)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: January 31, 2022)

“Genius or Gifted? IQ and Beyond (News Intervention Interview)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: February 3, 2022)

“Thrive: Your Future Path to Growth and Change (News Intervention Interview)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: May 25, 2022)

Previous Interviews Interpreted by Prof. Vaknin (Hyperlinks Active for Titles)

“Your Narcissist: Madman or Genius? (Based on News Intervention Interview)”

(Prof. Sam Vaknin: June 3, 2022)

Image Credit: Sam Vaknin. 

Xi Jinping warned the US against ‘playing with fire’ over Taiwan

Rajeev Pandey
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Xi Jinping warned the US against ‘playing with fire’ over Taiwan

BNM lambasts Pak Army for killing Haji Sanaullah’s sons & murderous attack on Raza Jahangir’s widow

News Intervention Bureau
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BNM lambasts Pak Army for killing Haji Sanaullah’s sons & murderous attack on Raza Jahangir’s widow

The spokesperson of Baloch National Movement said in his statement that the direct subordinate organizations of the Pakistani Army FC, Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of Police, Regular Police, Balochistan Levies and Death Squads are above the laws in Balochistan and cooperate with Pakistan Army in their  actions like Baloch genocide, collective punishment, enforced disappearance and custodial killings. 

He said the attack of FC on the house of Haji Sanaullah Shahwani in Kharan, the killing of his two sons and forced disappearance of one, murderous attack on the widow of the martyred leader of BSO-Azad Raza Jahangir in Shaal and the dragging of a woman by the hair in public by a Levies official in Suni Khuzdar were prominent examples of human rights abuses by state institutions. In order to prolong its occupation of Balochistan, the Pakistani army has been systematically using all institutions, including the police, to carry out its anti-Baloch plan.

Deceased sons of Sanaullah Shahwani in Kharan (Photo: News Intervention)

On the morning of 14 August 2013, the Pakistani army stormed the house of BNM Kech leader Shaheed Imdad Boujeer and martyred him and his guest BSO-Azad Secretary General Raza Jahangir. One year after the martyrdom of Raza Jahangir, on 28 August 2014, Pakistani army attacked a place of worship in Aawaran and killed his father, Bakhtiar Baloch including 6 other worshipers. Now, by choosing the month of August again, the agents of the Pakistani army have carried out a murderous attack on Shaheed Raza Jahangir’s widow ‘Zohra Baloch’ in front of the University of Balochistan in Shaal. The Pakistani army had continuously targeted this family and had forced them to migrate from their native area. The men of the family have been  killed by the Pakistani army today the widow of Shaheed Reza Jahangir had also been attacked.

Zorah Baloch widow of BSO-Azad Secretary General Raza Jahangir who attacked ( Photo: News Intervention)

The spokesperson further added that the family of Haji Sanaullah Shahwani in Kharaan was also a victim of the brutality of the state of Pakistan. His house was attacked by FC and Pakistan Army on the night of 2 August 2022. According to Haji Sanaullah, FC and Pakistani army personnel tortured all the people in the house including women and children. Amir and Imran Shahwani, sons of Haji Sanaullah, were shot during the torture and his third son Irfan Shahwani was tortured with kicks and gun butts. After the torture of the three sons, two of whom were seriously injured, were forcibly disappeared. Both brothers Aamir and Imran were martyred in the custody of secret agencies whose dead bodies were thrown in the Civil Hospital of Quetta while Haji Sanaullah’s third son Irfan Shahwani is still missing.

The spokesperson of BNM further said that the family of Haji Sanaullah had been completely destroyed by the Pakistani army as a target of revenge.A month ago, one of his sons, Ashfaaq Shahwani, was also killed by state backed proxy and now three of his sons have been targeted, two of whom have been extrajudicially killed while one has been forcibly disappeared after arrest. These crimes against humanity committed by the state of Pakistan in Balochistan cannot be forgiven under any circumstances.

He stressed, “The Baloch people must unite and give strength to the national movement of Baloch to protect their society and national survival. Without the independence of Balochistan, we cannot get rid of these atrocities”.

Levies official Asadullah in the Suni area of Khuzdar dragging a woman by her hair (Photo: News Intervention)

In the end, the spokesperson regarding the social media viral picture of a Levies official named ‘Asadullah’ in the Suni area of Khuzdar dragging a woman by her hair said  “we expect better behavior from the Baloch police, especially the Levies officials” as  Baloch majority institutions are expected to “fulfil their responsibilities for the elimination of social crimes” and the Baloch would refrain from getting involved in anti-Baloch activities. The majority of these institutions have become puppets of the Pakistani army. “The said action of the official named Asadullah is against human dignity which the Baloch nation will never allow”. “We ask to the Baloch officers of the police and levies to refrain from such act. Otherwise, the Baloch nation considers them as enemies and holds them accountable. They have to correct their behaviors. The enemy wants to pit the Baloch against the Baloch, but we have to understand that this is against our national interest and the Baloch nation cannot afford it” he said .               

Changing tactics of Islamist theofascists

Prof. K.N. Pandita
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Changing tactics of Islamist theofascists

First, the selective killings of the Hindus and Sikhs in Kashmir, and now the “sar tan se  juda”  monstrosity of  theo-fascists at some places in India, all point to the new tactics of  Ghazvatu’l Hind mission as stipulated in some books of Islamic Tradition (hadith).

The operatives of Ghazavatu’l Hind (the Indian campaign) had temporarily slowed it down for two years for two reasons.  One was to let the Taliban authority get stabilized in Kabul and the second the fast economic crisis overtaking Pakistan — a situation which the disruptive forces cherished. Now, the masterminds of the Ghazavatu’l Hind plan accelerated the operation of their assignment.

The murder of identified Hindus in Udaipur, Amravati, Ara and other places is not an isolated incident although the criminals would wish the Indian security authorities and policy planners remain wrapped up in that delusion. Investigating agencies are gradually removing the layer after layer of a conspiracy that shrouds these murders. For example, one of the strategies adopted by the Ghazava Ansars could be that of establishing a countrywide network of Dawat-e-Islami, the new Pakistan-based Islamic organization, with a specific agenda of unleashing terror in entire India through the indoctrinated Indian Muslim youth. It may be reminded that sometimes back, there was much talk about Ghazavatu’l Hind in Islamic circles and this writer had scripted a column on the subject.

Islamists fervently pursuing the resurgence of radicalized Islam (which they label as puritanical Islam) strongly argue that their scriptures categorically enjoins upon the puritan to efface from the surface of the earth the last vestiges of kufr, meaning apostasy/ idolatry, especially in India. They are asked to believe that the orthodox Islamic faith, culture and sharia must prevail as stated in the teachings of the scriptures.

 However, some Muslim scholars are of the view that violence against other faiths like Hinduism or Judaism, is not recommended anywhere in the Islamic scriptures. They bring the onus of the aberrations like these to the doorsteps of the half-literate mullahs and the Islamic clergy guided by self-aggrandizement. The clash between the orthodoxy and liberalism in Islam has been as old as Islam itself. But because the orthodoxy made use of brute force and politicized Islam to stifle the voice of liberalism, the latter always remained subdued and passive. A major portion of Islamic history is the unending struggle between the two ideologies.

Under this classification, those who do not indulge in violence always say that all Muslims cannot be branded as violent, terrorists and criminals. But to their dismay, this argument cannot have many takers. The fact is that if the majority of the Muslims are rationalists and only a handful of their community are misguided hypocrites, then they should have mustered the courage to weed out the pretentious elements from society. We have never heard crowds of righteous Muslims coming out on the streets and announcing resistance to the fascist elements in society. But there is no example of mass protest by the rationalist and humanist Muslims in any part of the world though some outstanding personalities like Kamal Ataturk of Turkey and Reza Shah Pahlavi of Iran had tried to set an example of resilience when in power. Once they were out, orthodoxy returned with a bang.  It means that by their inaction the so-called rationalists among the Muslims advertently or inadvertently lend support to the upholders of Theo-fascism.

 The extremists and radicals among the Muslims consider it their religious duty to join the jihad against the idol-worshippers in India because they feel Islam is under threat as long as idolatry exists no matter howsoever docile, passive and non-violent these idolaters are.  Don’t forget that a champion of theirs had the temerity to say publicly that “the Hindu terrorism is the most dangerous of all terrors.”  They consider the time suited for undertaking the mission of Ghazavatu’l Hind; they have already started it. This is what the madrasahs teach the young kids who ultimately grow with a particular mindset in which the elements of hatred and violence enjoy primacy.

Indian policy planners are under a misconception that the pro-ghazava forces may plan an onslaught on the Hindus of India resembling the one they unleashed in Kashmir in 1990. In such a situation, they think that the state security and defence apparatus will come into action. This is wrong thinking. The Islamists have very carefully calculated what strategy has to be employed when and where. For example, General Zia’s theory was to bleed India by a thousand cuts. Although he was a General trained in a modern military academy, he eschewed direct attack on India and devised a strategy that worked fairly well.

A proxy war is one of the viable strategies which the State of Pakistan has adopted for use against India. Once, General Musharraf said that the Indian Muslims are our crucial asset for the implementation of a proxy war against India. This was a grandiose strategy and Pakistan’s intelligence agency worked on it in good time. The Ghazavatu’l Hind and its latest version called Dawat-e-Islami are the variants of the changed strategy.  Taqiya or camouflaging is another essential component of the new strategy and Theo-fascists use it successfully. In the same strain “denial” is another strong instrument very much in use to promulgate the Ghaazva mission. So pervasive is the denial theory that President Trump in a tweet in 2018 wrote, “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give a haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan”.

Pakistan will never fight India face to face. It will resort to subversion at various levels and in various forms. Penetrating various institutions of the State including the critical ones like the Atomic Energy base, Space Centres, departments of some selected ministries, judiciary, police, intelligence, cyber technologies, foreign missions etc. The mosques, their Imams, Muslim religious or political leadership and numerous so-called Islamic welfare institutions and NGOs, all are under their radar. Spreading terror to cow down state functionaries from discharging their duty without fear and favour is reflected in the threat letters that have begun to be sent to a large number of people. Imagine the impact of terror that even the judges of the Supreme Court and lower courts feel pressurized to give verdicts against their conscience. This is the vast game of subversion and it succeeds because it is not challenged; because the Indian State is lost in the pretentious slogans of non-violence and peaceful coexistence.  Imagine when two judges of the Indian Supreme Court issued a verdict that the beheading of Kanhaiya in Udaipur was the result of Nupur Sharma’s derogatory statement, the Taliban in Kabul issued a statement appreciating the Indian Supreme court’s verdict and comments. Imagine how the Supreme Court of the world’s largest democracy allowed itself to be derided. 

The most dangerous and unfortunate part of this anti-India Herculean mission is that a section of Indian citizenry, (apart from the Muslim community), is treacherously supporting the Theo-fascists for their wicked designs against the Indian State not out of any conviction but to see that the Modi government is toppled and then the chaos follows. Their machinations are in no way inferior or less effective than those of the prime actors of the Ghazava. Some sections of media including television channels vie with one another in denigrating the Indian State and the Indian nation. It should not be forgotten that most of these rabidly anti-national elements serve the purpose of the deep state and all-powerful international agencies who, through money and muscle power, want to control the globe and give direction to the events according to their choice. The rise of India as a military and economic power through strong policies like “atmanirbhar” is a red rag to the bull. The Shaheen Bagh event, Delhi riots, Kisan agitation, Agniveer agitation, hijab agitation and now “sar tan se juda” monstrosity, all drew inspiration from the global anti-India network. The scuttling of FTA between India and the UK, the defeat of Donald Trump in the previous election, the resignation of the British PM Boris Johnson and the assassination of Shinzo Abe (the brain behind Quad-4), all these events carry a common thread. In this vast ocean of perfidies and conspiracies, PM Modi stands like an immovable rock drawing strength from the support and love of his people who form one-fifth of the world’s population.

The Dawat-i-Islami, in combination with other lashkars raised on the soil of Pakistan, has been busy spreading their network in many parts of India from east to west and north to south. Thanks to India’s developed digital connectivity, these modules are connected not only to their mentors in Pakistan but also to others in different parts of the world especially those in the category of fundraisers and military strategists. The term Ghazavatu’l Hind has become a household word for almost all Muslims wherever they are.

The investigating agencies are just concluding that the Islamists are adopting uniform patterns, other than man-to-man confrontation, to advance the Islamic agenda in India.  The undercurrent of Ghazvatu’l Hind/Dawat-e-Islami runs in all Islamic communities irrespective of the fact whether they feign friendship with India or not.  This has been amply proved in the Napur Sharma case.

How is the Indian State responding to this situation? This is the crucial question. Indian authorities do not understand the tsunami of Theo-fascism preparing to overrun India. Right from the times of the Shaheen Bagh episode to the beheading of Kanhaiyalal in Udaipur, there have been recurring Islamic uprisings in this country. The idiom of the activists of these upsurges is not indigenous but imported one. Reports of inquiry committees invariably identify the miscreants but the authorities seldom divulge what punishment has been given or not given to the culprits. It is kept a secret out of the fear of displeasing the vole bank segment. Be sure the Theo-fascist tsunami will overrun India if Indian policy planners do not dump the vote bank theory in the dustbin. The Indian government feels that its penal code and other laws are sufficient to deal with this threatening scenario. It has to change its mindset. It has to learn that an extraordinary political and social challenge, needs extraordinary measures and laws. It has to learn the language that Theo-fascists understand. France presents an example. She has closed the Islamic seminaries; she has imposed restrictions on sermons delivered in the mosques; she has set the heaviest fines and imprisonment on those intending to spread religious violence. India needs to hold OIC responsible for stimulating the anti-State attitude of Indian Muslims by issuing irresponsible statements after its meetings, and on the insistence of Pakistan. Conversely, OIC must decide India’s inclusion in the organization being home to the second largest Muslim population in the world.

Video: Gilgit-Baltistan’s political activist Shafqat Ali Inqalabi talks about ongoing protests

Vivek Sinha
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Video: Gilgit-Baltistan’s political activist Shafqat Ali Inqalabi talks about ongoing protests

There have been demonstrations and protests across Pakistan-occupied Jammu Kashmir (POJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan over the last several days. Shafqat Ali Inqalabi, Political Activist from Gilgit-Baltistan explains the underlying causes for these demonstrations in this interview with Vivek Sinha, Editor-in-Chief News Intervention.

Way ahead after Art 370 & Art 35A abrogation

Nilesh Kunwar
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Way ahead after Art 370 & Art 35A abrogation

August 5 marks the third anniversary of the center’s decision to abrogate Articles 370 and 35[A] of the Indian constitution, and though it’s still too early to comprehensively comment on the pros and cons of this move, however, after evaluating the post Article 370 abrogation developments in the union territories of J&K and Ladakh, certain inferences can nevertheless be drawn from the same.

The Positives

In democracies, all citizens enjoy equal rights and privileges and as such, Article 370 which accorded a ‘special status’ to J&K and its people, was perse discriminatory in nature. This dichotomy in the Indian constitution was being exploited by vested interests to prop-up their infirm narrative of J&K being “disputed territory”.  However, by abrogating Article 370, New Delhi has unambiguously reiterated its legally sound and internationally acknowledged stand that J&K always was, is, and will forever remain an integral part of India

That abrogation of Article 370 was a diplomatic masterstroke which completely demolished Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative is evident from the unprecedented pandemonium this decision caused across the Radcliffe Line. Islamabad’s knee jerk reactions and desperate attempts to salvage its ‘beating stick’ by taking up this issue with UNSC, as well as the threat to move International Court of Justice [ICJ] seeking revocation of Article 370, is a clear indication of the disconcert that this move created in Pakistan.

However, while Islamabad would have never expected this to happen, it would be completely wrong to assume that it was unaware that it’s objections to abrogation of Article 370 were both legally and diplomatically untenable. Why else would have the then Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi caution his countrymen not to “live in fool’s paradise” since “They [UNSC members] are not waiting for you with garlands in their hands” even before this issue was taken up at UNSC?

Furthermore, by pompously announcing that “An in-principle decision has been taken to take the issue of Kashmir to the International Court of Justice”, as well as adding that “The decision was taken after considering all legal aspects,” and thereafter suddenly developing cold feet, Qureshi unwittingly admitted that there was no substance in Islamabad’s puerile stand on abrogation of Article 370! With UNSC agreeing to China’s request hold just an ‘informal’ and generic meet on Kashmir without discussing Article 370 or issuing any resolution, it was abundantly clear that it was merely a perfunctory face-saving exercise to extricate Islamabad from an embarrassing situation!

The turmoil Article 370 abrogation caused was not limited to Pakistan’s Foreign Office only. It also seems to have rattled Rawalpindi, forcing Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa to declare that “Pakistan Army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end. We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfil our obligations…,” which is a clear confession regarding the devious role being played by Pakistan army and its notorious spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] by fomenting terrorism in J&K. What else can one infer when an army chief of a country expresses his army’s solidarity with secessionist activities and terrorism in a foreign country?

With the abrogation of Article 370 and 35[A], while central welfare schemes have been extended to J&K, many discriminatory laws like denial of residency and inheritance rights to women who choose to marry men from outside the state stand null and void. This move has also made J&K more accessible to business and the fact that, Dubai based Lulu Group, which is Middle East’s largest hypermarket and retail group has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to set up a food processing and logistics hub in Srinagar is a case in point.

Besides generating substantial employment, this MoU also comes as a windfall for J&K’s farmers and horticulturists. Lulu Hypermarket has already launched the world-famous GI tagged saffron of Kashmir and is importing fruits and spices for sale in the Middle East. Similarly, the J&K govt has also signed a MoU with the Dubai government for development of real estate and industrial parks, and this will create a host of job opportunities as well as attract businesses.

The Challenges

The main impediment threatening optimum exploitation of the multi-faceted benefits accruing from Article 370 abrogation expectedly comes from Pakistan and its proxies as well as those who have lost their political and financial fiefdoms or relevance. While these entities spread negativity, politicians supporting pro-Article 370 abrogation who go overboard by making incredulous claims such as this decision will overnight end terrorism or unemployment too generate cynicism amongst the people.

Islamabad’s attempts to sabotage the benefits of Article 370 abrogation is evident from its attempts to create a state of anarchy in J&K by using terrorists to escalate violence levels. With targeted killing of minority community members and migrant workers, ISI has now enlarged the scope of its sponsored terrorist activities in Kashmir Valley in a bid to dissuade business houses from setting up shop here. This is a serious challenge since there’s no reason to believe that Pakistan will mend its way and cease its disruptive activities in Kashmir Valley.

While Pakistan may wax eloquent on its concerns regarding the wellbeing of Kashmiris, its actions smack of utter duplicity. For example, it was expected that Islamabad would welcome direct flights between J&K and the Middle East, and allow overflight facilities to make it cheaper for Kashmiri passengers as well as to earn revenue. However, by unilaterally reneging on its agreement allowing a private Indian airline overflight facility from Srinagar to UAE, hasn’t Islamabad exposed its brazen attempt to sabotage J&K centric commercial and travel activities?

The Way Ahead

When viewed holistically, it’s apparent that while Pakistan has most certainly lost its diplomatic battle on Kashmir, it’s still not willing to give up, and just like a psychotic spurned lover has adopted the destructive ‘If I can’t have you, then no one else can’ approach! This is what has to be explained in great detail to the people of J&K alongwith examples that prove the same so that Pakistan’s Kashmir façade can be exposed. Simultaneously, use of all mediums of communication [especially social media] to counter the propaganda being disseminated by the pro-Pakistan camp in J&K also needs to be undertaken on a war footing.

Lastly, there’s a need for a comprehensive public awareness campaign to educate people so that they can for themselves realise that criticism of Articles 370 and 35[A] abrogation is motivated and designed to suit vested interests. While factual information/data relating to the various post-Article 370 abrogation initiatives is regularly being disseminated through government agencies, the same doesn’t have the required impact at grass root levels. Therefore, it’s necessary to engage the public in frank discussions and debates.

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