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Is a Global Hot War in the Offing?

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar (Retd.)
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Is a Global Hot War in the Offing?

Historically Many Wars start Accidentally
While the underlying acrimony, historical baggage and differences gives rise to an adversarial/confrontational/volatile relationship/situation, the actual trigger which starts the shooting war could be a minor incident. The aptly named ‘Pig War’ in 1859 between the United States and Great Britain in Don Juan island, started over a slaughtered swine. In another bizarre conflict of the 20th century, a dog inadvertently triggered an international crisis. The incident was the culmination of a long period of confrontation between Greece and Bulgaria, which had been at odds since the Second Balkan War in the 1910s. Tensions finally boiled over in October 1925, when a Greek soldier was shot after allegedly crossing the border into Bulgaria while chasing after his runaway dog.

The spark that ignited World War-I was struck in Sarajevo, Bosnia, where a relatively unknown Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire was fatally shot along with his wife, Sophie, by the Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914. Princip and other nationalists were struggling to end Austro-Hungarian rule over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Convinced that Austria-Hungary was readying for war, the Serbian government ordered the Serbian army to mobilize and appealed to Russia for assistance. On July 28, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, and the tenuous peace between Europe’s great powers quickly collapsed. Within a week, Russia, Belgium, France, Great Britain and Serbia had lined up against Austria-Hungary and Germany, and World War-I had begun. It’s a classic case of relentless escalation, inadequate diplomacy, and crude nationalism, along with a disbelief by populations and leaders alike that actual conflict was even possible, until the “guns of August” grimly proved otherwise. 

We now live in a globalized interconnected hi-tech world and compared to the conflicts of the 19th and 20th Century the outcome can be apocalyptic. The scope and dimensions of war have increased (multi-discipline, multi-domain, kinetic and non-kinetic), with consistent, accurate, potent, autonomous and long-range weapon systems of mass destruction (even non-kinetic systems like information and cyber wars). Wars are now 24X7, 360 degree, 3D with no front, rear or flanks, and are sudden, violent and unpredictable. While history rarely repeats itself in the same precise form, it is imperative for the leaders and nationalists in Beijing, Washington and New Delhi to realize, understand and act based on how high and volatile the stakes have become, specifically in the South and East China Sea (China Seas for convenience) and along the LAC between India and China. Even to maintain a nebulous peace, calls for statesmanship and an attitude of ‘give and take’ by all adversaries/actors involved. The focus of this article is viewing the scenario through the unfolding dangerous security prism of US-China relations, which in my opinion is raison d’être for current volatile security situation even along the LAC.

Declining Hegemon (USA), Rising Challenger (China): Nose diving Relations

The Coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the global phenomena of rivalry, economic protectionism and (ultra)nationalism, leading to all nations competing, confronting and if necessary engaging in conflict to maintain/regain/enlarge their strategic space and influence in the multi-polar, multi-domain world order. Specifically, the liberal world order led by USA with Western European countries and other partners are increasingly under heavy pressure from illiberal nations (who do not conform to the democratic world order). The tensions/any conflagration along the disputed LAC while not directly related, will become a major factor in the deteriorating relationship between USA and China, and the initiation of even a minor shooting incident in China Seas or LAC can escalate and engulf the other hotspot, and slowly the region, and the allies of USA and China can get caught up, either willingly or unwillingly.

Escalating Militarism and Brinkmanship by All

Just in the last few months the US-China relations seem to have returned to the early 1950s during and after the Korean War (Communist China entered the war by crossing the Yalu river). Mao Zedong is being glorified in the social media and few government mouth pieces for having boldly gone to war against the Americans in Korea, fighting them to a truce; in the US, articles/statements denouncing Richard Nixon for creating a global Frankenstein by introducing Communist China to the wider world is gaining credence. The in between thaw, unprecedented trade, and warm relations period seems to have vanished!

The rousing spate of nationalistic fervor, brinkmanship manoeuvres post COVID-19 by Beijing in the China Seas, Taiwan, IOR (Indian Ocean Region), pressuring global institutions, Wolf Warrior diplomacy, bullying other nations (neighbours, Japan, Australia, and even European nations) and most importantly intrusions and major PLA (army, air force, rocket and missile forces, air defence, mechanized formations, logistics) build up along the India-China LAC (no longer restricted to East Ladakh) is unprecedented in scale, scope, and region.

US has become strident, uncompromising with seemingly unending provocative actions across domains (economic, diplomatic, military, informational, psychological). We seem to be moving from one crisis to another from closure of consulates to calls by US officials for the overthrow of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The speed, intensity, scale and significance of the precipitous fall in US-China relations is stunning and alarming even for the citizens of USA and China, and all nations specially US allies.

What is very concerning is the lack of any mutually agreed understanding/SOP (standard operating procedure) to resolve an incident/crisis specially of the shooting kind. Nobody can hazard a second guess how this will pan out especially given the presidential elections around the corner, giving rise to the once unthinkable probability of actual armed conflict between the United States and China. Similar analogy can be applied to the LAC standoff between China and India, which can easily escalate to larger confrontation not only because of bilateral tensions and brinkmanship, but if President Xi Jinping and CCP (not China!) decides to showcase to the US and the world, its determination to dominate the region and attain its strategic and national objectives even by using force if required (Xi may well decide to maintain status quo in China Seas and Taiwan but focus on the LAC). The probability of Pakistan providing collusive support is almost certain, while US allies would be compelled to join in or support the US (Asian allies of both sides would have a Hobson’s choice but they would inevitably be drawn into the conflict). To put it bluntly, we are looking not just at a regional volatile security situation or cold war[i] but a hot war which can very easily engulf the world.

The Catalysts for Hot War

The probability of conflict will be especially high over the next few critical months between now and the US presidential elections in November (similarly along the LAC till winter sets in), as both US President Donald Trump (and rival Joe Biden who will be compelled to posture) and Chinese President Xi Jinping confront, and exploit, the messy intersection of domestic politics, national security imperatives, heightened nationalism and crisis management[ii]. Domestic political opinion in all three countries has turned toxic. The list of friction points is long, from cyber-espionage, trade irregularities, weaponization of the dollar to Hong Kong, South China Sea and LAC standoff. Taiwan has always been a major friction point in the US-Chinese relationship. From the CCP’s perspective, one grounded in both ideology and nationalism, the “return of Taiwan to the motherland’s tender embrace,” would complete the revolution of 1949. Recent opinion polls indicate that a record 90 percent of people in Taiwan now self-identify as Taiwanese rather than as Chinese. The channels for high-level political and military consultations are paralysed (India-China military and diplomatic dialogue are so far continuing with negligible movement on ground) when they are needed most. It is a truism that global wars have no winners, however, the current explosive situation could start one, due to the globalized multi-domain inter-connectivity.

The Build Up

After 9/11, the US focused on GWOT (Global War On Terrorism) / sub-conventional wars as also was distracted in numerous global developments like Afghanistan, Middle East, financial crisis, allowing illiberal nations like China and Iran to focus on their rise and build capabilities to address US vulnerabilities. The asymmetry between US and China closed in the military, economic, diplomatic, influence domains and power projection capabilities, making USA respond with increasing aggression. Ever since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, the CCP has pushed nationalism, and adopted a much more assertive strategy abroad, both regionally and globally.

The US has decided to end its four decades of strategic engagement and specially after COVID has unleashed an all-out confrontation. It has attacked China diplomatically for human rights violations in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang. It has launched a trade, technology, and talent war, and a finance war as well. It has designated about 40 top Chinese firms as military owned/controlled by PLA for sanctions. Trump (and his opponent Biden) has blamed China for the full range of its domestic political, economic, and public health calamities, making for a uniquely combustible political environment.

While Trump’s actions appear chaotic, Xi has been focused on the ‘China Dream’ during his lifetime and is getting increasingly impatient to achieve it, which includes annexation of Taiwan (even forcefully if necessary), regain all its alleged/perceived historical territory and maritime waters and become a superpower. That leaves little room for foreign policy nuance, let alone military compromise, should any crisis arise. On July 1 2020, China implemented its Hong Kong national security law, which criminalizes “secessionist,” “seditious,” and “terrorist” activity, as well as any collaboration in such activities with “foreign powers.”

In response, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo judged that Hong Kong no longer enjoyed a “high degree of autonomy” as provided under the “one country, two systems” principle. This determination was followed on July 14, 2020 by Trump signing the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. This new law will result in “the imposition of sanctions on foreign persons who materially contribute to the undermining of Hong Kong’s autonomy by China, and foreign financial institutions who engage in significant transactions with such foreign persons.” For individuals, it will involve travel and transaction bans (no visas even to politburo members including Xi!). USA has formally rejected the international legal validity of all Chinese maritime claims and Australia followed suit ten days later, with a formal statement to the United Nations. It implies that US legally endorses individual claims of nations, and not just defends freedom of navigation. China had already rejected the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the territorial waters of Philippines, and the illegality of the nine-dash line.

Military Brinkmanship

Both country’s armed forces have been engaged in an increasingly aggressive game of testing red lines on the high seas, in the air, and in cyberspace. USA has stepped up its military cooperation with Taiwan; increased scale and frequency of arms sales, including expanding the island’s Patriot missile defense system and offering new offensive capabilities such as 66 F-16V aircraft; referring officially to Tsai as President; released provocative video footage of previously undeclared US-Taiwanese military exercises. The tempo and intensity of US naval and air reconnaissance missions have increased markedly by Washington deploying two aircraft carrier groups to the South China Sea, and they were joined by allied naval units from both Australia and Japan.

Beijing has responded strongly stating that US is getting dangerously close to crossing Chinese red lines, and in turn, deployed an additional squadron of fighter-attack aircraft to the Paracel Islands in the northern reaches of the South China Sea. China launched four missiles, including an “aircraft-carrier killer”, into the South China Sea on August 26, 2020 morning as a warning to the US. The move came one day after China said a US U-2 spy plane entered a no-fly zone without permission during a Chinese live-fire naval drill in the Bohai Sea off its north coast. Interestingly, both Chinese and American war-gaming exercises suggest that China would prevail in any major conflict in the Taiwan Strait[iii], but it is a grave political and strategic gamble for CCP. A recent desktop exercise involving retired Chinese and American policymakers and military officers to consider a crisis situation provided a disturbing scenario. Although the military officers from both sides could agree on a protocol to extract a damaged naval vessel safely, the nonmilitary participants, more attentive to the political interests of their governments, wanted to escalate to a shooting war.

Deterrence could break down owing to either Strategic or Tactical miscalculation

Chinese capabilities, leadership’s overconfidence, Xi’s personality and increasing impatience to achieve China Dream within his tenure, could further diminish US and Indian deterrence value, inviting risk-taking, leading to military strategic and tactical adventurism, forcing a response. The probability of China escalating the LAC sector while maintaining status quo along the China seas is highly probable.

India’s Hot War Scenario

Concurrent with the Chinese multi-domain belligerence globally, the Chinese are up to their traditional tricks of ‘salami slicing’ and 3Ws strategy (‘Three warfares’ strategy—media, psychological and legal warfare), engaging in a physical confrontation along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh, and effectively changing the status quo since Apr 2020. There are credible inputs regarding concentration of PLA troops along the central sector opposite Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal, and some mobilization opposite the Northern borders in Arunachal Pradesh. This concentration of forces includes area and long-range weapon systems (missiles, rockets, artillery, air-defence systems, tanks and mechanized forces, and most importantly the air forces deployed for action), which if employed by either nation will certainly escalate to a larger conflict.

Nationalistic hyperbole from both sides is a natural corollary, which could lead to brinkmanship. This conflagration is all the more probable given the fact that troops along the LAC are in eye ball to eye ball contact fully armed and weapons loaded, so to speak. Physical fight leading to fatalities happened for the first time in four decades on June 15 in Galwan. India has rightfully declared that when warranted their troops can resort to using their weapons. One cannot rule out the possibility of this conflict spreading sectorally along the LAC, and regionally based on reactions/incident/ accident as forces are arrayed opposite each other in the China Seas too.

Situation is made more complex due to China-Pakistan collusivity, and USA and allies supporting India. In the seas, close misses and escalation have been avoided more out of restraint exercised by the individual/armed forces involved, rather than agreements/ SOPs (standard operating procedure) established between the confrontationist nations. Satellite imagery highlights that the PLA has made rapid upgrades to multiple Surface to Air Missile sites along the LAC to close any existing air gaps between the two countries; mobilized at least three divisions in East Ladakh, building newer constructions by China on its side of the LAC and also in current areas of intrusion, and is further building infrastructure all along the LAC (bridges, camps and roads). Signaling their intent to stay the course, inputs suggest that China is laying fiber optic cables for 5G wireless technology up to the intrusions. India’s Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Bipin Rawat has stated “The military options to deal with transgressions by the Chinese army in Ladakh are on, but it will be exercised only if the talks at the military and diplomatic levels fail.

Recommended De-escalation and Crisis Management Measures

Mutually agreed red lines in the military dimension, open lines of communication at all levels to avoid accidental escalation and navigating the environment till December 2020 with statesmanship and diplomacy. The US too needs to tone down its rhetoric and actions especially in China’s strategic backyard. The majority of the international community which is watching Chinese belligerent actions warily and with apprehension, must unequivocally convey their displeasure, and their intent to oppose it collectively, including any attempt to further escalate the situation along the India-China LAC. India’s strategic partners like USA, Japan, Australia must signal readiness to assist India in more ways than mere diplomacy in the eventuality of a shooting war. Concurrently, inflexible positions by China and India, could result in a shooting war. China recognizes that India is a growing regional power with a combat experienced armed forces (specially in high altitude terrain), and as a rule has always exercised strategic autonomy, but if pushed can align with the USA. India must stay strong, stick to its stance of status quo return as of April 2020, and be ready to act militarily if needed. It is hoped that China would accept ‘that returning to status quo positions of April 2020 along the LAC in East Ladakh is the only ‘win-win’ option’.

[i] ‘How the Cold War Between China and U.S. Is Intensifying’, The New York Times, 24 Jul 2020

[ii] ‘US-China Cold War: The two world powers are entering dangerous territory’, The Economic Times, 20 Jul 2020

[iii] ‘Beware the Guns of August—in Asia: How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Tensions From Sparking a War’ by Kevin Rudd

Gupkar Declaration to Six-Party Resolution in Kashmir

Prof. K.N. Pandita
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Gupkar Declaration to Six-Party Resolution in Kashmir

A year ago, on August 4, 2019 prominent political leaders of Kashmir Valley had come together at Farooq Abdullah’s residence on Gupkar Road in Srinagar and agreed to stay “united in their resolve to protect and defend identity, autonomy and the special status of J&K against all attacks and onslaughts whatsoever”. The decision for the meet was driven by rising speculation of “attacks and onslaughts whatsoever.” Reading between the lines, the term “whatsoever” subtly referred to Hindu-dominated NDA government while the phrase “to protect and defend identity, autonomy and the special status of J&K” implied the identity etc. of the Muslim majority of the Valley.

Jammu and Ladakh regions have had complaints of discrimination and unfairness but not of identity, autonomy or special status. The non-Muslim communities of Kashmir, too, suffered from inequity but not of identity etc. Hence it follows that the identity and autonomy problem is exclusive with the Kashmiri Muslim leadership.

What do the sponsors mean by identity? The world knows and has recognized that they are Muslims enjoying the fullest freedom of propagating their faith. In seven decades their population has grown three-fold, thousands of new mosques have come up across the Kashmir Valley and never has any restriction been imposed on free propagation of the faith. To bring Islamization to full circle in the valley, its religious cleansing was carried out in 1990 to purify it of the presence of indigenous people — the kuffar – through genocide and extirpation without anybody asking the why of it. On this physical and cultural decimation of the indigenous people of Kashmir Valley, none of the six-party conglomerate ever uttered a word leave aside the demand for an inquiry commission. So, whose identity has been threatened?

Now, if identity means “who I am and I shall remain so”, the question to be asked is this: Is the Kashmir Valley-based Muslim leadership carrying conviction in “identity and autonomy”? We have reservations. If it does then it would have made a loud protest against Pakistan for issuing a new map that shows entire State of Jammu and Kashmir as part of Pakistan. By not protesting against this onslaught, the valley-based leadership has conveyed a message that what they have resolved in the context of identity etc. is mere rhetoric and not a conviction. They are practically reconciled to the torpedoing of Kashmiri identity, autonomy and status. Leave aside protest, there was not even a murmur about the subject in the circles of Kashmir Muslim leadership. That means their concept of “identity” and “autonomy”, nothing more than a myth, is dissolvable in the socio-political concoction of Pakistan. Where has gone the slogan of azaadi and what about those who died for azaadi? Who will answer these questions?

This being the stark reality, what has Farooq to say about his late father’s opposition to the two-nation theory, which he claimed was the basis of accession to the Indian Union in 1947. Kashmiris buried the so-called secularism of Sheikh Abdullah in 1990 in a bizarre manner.

May we take the liberty of reminding the six-party leadership camaraderie what a senior Pakistani General recently said about Kashmiris? Commenting on the recurrent losses of Pakistan abetted militant cadres in Kashmir, the General said that the “Kashmiris were traitors.” He meant to say that Kashmiris were not dependable as they have become informers to the security forces. The people in the valley noted that the Gupkar Declaration leaders turned their face away as if they had heard nothing. How come their bravado of defending their identity evaporated in the thin air.

The six-party joint statement gloats over unity among the parties. Their recorded history speaks eloquently of their mutual rivalries, suspicions and dislike. The question is what binds them together now when there is no ideological similarity and no clarity of conviction in the rhetoric of identity and autonomy etc. It is not even commonality of religion that binds them together because they have always been co-religionists and rivals or adversaries or both at the same time.

The fact is that after the vacuum created by exit of Syed Ali Shah Geelani from rabid pro-Pak accession narrative, the Jamaat-e-Islami cadres very close to Geelani have got dispersed as ignominious entities in Kashmir political conundrum. These lately rudderless elements are frantically seeking admission first in PDP and then in NC and other groups. The reference to unity is essentially and subtly a message for the Jamaati cadres to forge unity despite whosoever has adopted them in the post-Geelani scenario.

Thus we find that the primary objective of Farooq in sponsoring the six-party meet is to project himself as one who has the potential to wear the mantle of retired-hurt Geelani. Gifted with a sprinkle of resilience, he considers that his presence in the Indian Parliament is the certification of his “secularist” credentials. That is why he told an interviewer that he will not resign from his membership of the Parliament. However, he fails to understand two crucial developments, one is that Congress is in shambles and may cease to be anything but an outhouse group at Luttyens, and second, the days of Kashmir Sheikhdom are gone for all times. If he understands this reality, he would be meditating either at Khwaja’s shrine in Ajmer or cooling his heels at the Fateh Kadal shrine of Amir Kabir instead of playing Robin Hood at Gupkar. 

The demands outlined in the joint statement are actually part of Jamat-e-Islami broad agenda. The representatives of six political parties serve a cover and nothing more. Ever since their origin the signatories have been running their independent political agenda, in or out of power, and towing their respective party lines. Their camaraderie, after the euphoria of a joint bid to revive the old moth-eaten and regressive political order, will wane away in due course of time.

As for the allegation that JK Reorganization Act 2019 is allegedly “unconstitutional and illegal,” a case to that effect is pending before the Supreme Court and we should desist from making any comment. But there is a question. Suppose the Supreme Court dismisses the complaint and declares the Act as legally and constitutionally fine, how is the Gupkar caucus going to react? Will it give a call for civil disobedience after Gandhian antics or will it rise in sedition? In that case, Farooq would be well advised to understand that not a dog barked for one year after the Articles 370 and 35-A were abrogated. No case of stone-throwing, street blocking and hostile rallies took place. The masses of people got a respite from the tactics of political cronies.

Also if the court case goes in favour of the plaintiff and the state is restored what it has lost, how do these leaders think of shaping the relationship with the Centre knowing that the State is 95% dependent on support from the Centre. After all, for many years before the Reorganization Act, the relations between the State and the Centre were bitter to the extent of hostility because of local governments avoiding dealing strictly with the militants and their supporters on the one hand and acquiescing to the dictation from the ISI handlers on the other side of the border.

While the sponsors of the joint statement hurl all conceivable abuses on the Abrogation Act, they need to be reminded that the people in Jammu and its border regions like Kishtwar, Bhaderwah, Poonch, Reasi, etc. have hailed it as writing a new chapter in the history of development, progress and democracy of Jammu and Kashmir. Since the signatories have pledged to fight for the abrogation of the Reorganization Act and restoration of Art 35-A and Art 370, it means inviting confrontation with the masses of people in Jammu region also. In other words, they want the Jammu region to choose its path. Put in crude but realistic phraseology it means separation of the two regions, something which is a reality to a large extent, and remains only to be formalized.

It will be recalled that ever since the dawn of accession and transfer of power (unconstitutionally) from the Maharaja to a clap-trap rabble rousing political syndicate, the people of Jammu and Ladakh regions have been genuinely protesting against discrimination in all walks of life. There is a record that the first day of the opening of Durbar in Jammu as Durbar Move was observed as a black day and a strike was announced by the Jammu civil society. It was almost a compulsion for the Central government to let the status quo continue and the two uneven regions remain tied in an unholy alliance. The Union government and the governments in Srinagar together manoeuvred to keep Jammu region in perpetual discontentment by not addressing blatant discrimination. Instead, they would give fake assurances to vulnerable political personalities of Jammu to join what they considered the national mainstream while there was nothing of that sort in Jammu after the Praja Parishad was forced to disappear.

The six-party Resolution speaks for Kashmir Valley. Jammu and Ladakh are not a party to it. In passing, it is pertinent to remind the valley leadership to sit back for a while and ponder over the great churning in the Islamic world especially the Middle East with which they have relations. The valley leadership must understand that radical and conservative Islam of the non-Arab frame is diametrically at loggerheads with the progressive Arab Islamic States. As Muslims, the people of valley must evaluate the Indian democratic and secular dispensation and values in the light of what is obtainable in their neighbourhoods –- Xinjiang, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.

Skepticism in the Superempowered Era 1 – “First things first”

Scott Douglas Jacobsen
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Skepticism in the Superempowered Era 1 – “First things first”

Tim Roberts is the Founder/Administrator of Unsolved Problems. He self-describes in “A Brief and Almost True Biography” as follows: “I was definitely born lower-middle class.  Britain was (and probably still is) so stratified that one’s status could be easily classified.  You were only working class if you lived in Scotland or Wales, or in the north of England, or had a really physical job like dustbin-man.  You were only middle class if you lived in the south, had a decent-sized house, probably with a mortgage, and at work you had to use your brain, at least a little. My mother was at the upper end of lower-middle class, my father at the lower. After suffering through the first twenty years of my life because of various deleterious genetically-acquired traits, which resulted in my being very small and very sickly, and a regular visitor to hospitals, I became almost normal in my 20s, and found work in the computer industry.  I was never very good, but demand in those days was so high for anyone who knew what a computer was that I turned freelance, specializing in large IBM mainframe operating systems, and could often choose from a range of job opportunities. As far away as possible sounded good, so I went to Australia, where I met my wife, and have lived all the latter half of my life. Being inherently lazy, I discovered academia, and spent 30 years as a lecturer, at three different universities.  Whether I actually managed to teach anyone anything is a matter of some debate.  The maxim “publish or perish” ruled, so I spent an inordinate amount of time writing crap papers on online education, which required almost no effort. My thoughts, however, were always centred on such pretentious topics as quantum theory and consciousness and the nature of reality.  These remain my over-riding interest today, some five years after retirement. I have a reliance on steroids and Shiraz, and possess an IQ the size of a small planet, because I am quite good at solving puzzles of no importance, but I have no useful real-world skills whatsoever.  I used to know a few things, but I have forgotten most of them.”

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Something close to the heart for you: Skepticism. In particular, the idea of Scientific Skepticism. The former with a longer tradition in formal philosophy. The latter built upwards for the last few centuries as a natural part and consequence of empiricism and the scientific method. Obviously, the doubters have been around forever. However, there’s a sense in which formalization in philosophy and then through science truly gave hammer blows against non-sense ideas and practices. As a short preface, this comes from a proposal for an educational series on skepticism to Tim from me. He accepted. It’s a topic dear to his heart. For those who consider IQ highly valuable, Tim scored 45 out of 48 on the legendary Titan Test of Dr. Ronald Hoeflin. For those who don’t value it, Tim thinks taking IQ tests will or has become some niche activity akin to baseball card collectors. Something strange eccentric people engage in, at length, without much real import. Nonetheless, the purpose of this series is the spreading of scientific skeptic methodologies, sensibilities, and attitudes, not to be confused with cynicism. In an extensive interview with James Randi with me, he talked about Sylvia Browne and James van Praagh, as examples. There are many other concrete examples of frauds, purported psychics, and the like, in the world. So, maybe, we can work on establishing some first principles of filtering bad ideas, even basic attitudes behind skepticism. What would you consider paramount as a principle, even an attitude, about keeping away from bad ideas? George Carlin warned, “Kids have to be warned that there’s bullshit coming down the road.” This can be a good first pass filter, for example.

Tim Roberts: First things first, I object to being called a skeptic. Why? Because why should anyone be labelled, or put in a special category, just because they believe in the use of logic and rationality, and the examination of empirical evidence? Shouldn’t everyone be a skeptic?

But now, to your question. Let us first distinguish false ideas from bad ideas, since they may be subtly different.

There is a famous, but possibly apocryphal, story that the physicist Nils Bohr hung a horseshoe on his front door for good luck. But surely you don’t believe in such rubbish, said a good friend. Of course not, said Bohr, but they say it works whether you believe it or not.

This is a false idea, but not a bad idea.

People who worship the flying spaghetti monster are indulging in a false idea. But hardly bad, unless the monster starts telling them to do evil things.

Homeopathy is a false idea. The taking of homeopathic medicines almost by definition has no effect whatsoever. But if belief in homeopathy leads people to neglect treatment by conventional medical practice, this can be a very bad idea indeed.

Even true ideas can be bad. The injection of bleach into one’s body will indeed decrease your chance of dying from corona virus, because it will kill you through other causes. So it is a bad idea. A very bad idea.

The secret – though it is not a secret – of staying away from bad ideas is the ability to think critically.

Jacobsen: There has been a rise in the efforts of cynical actors to spread non-sense and magical claims. Or, at least, these seem more available for purveyance. What is a skeptical attitude towards claims and people coming one’s way? How does this differ from cynicism?

Roberts: Taking these two questions in reverse order: it is disappointing that some people confuse skepticism and cynicism, since they are far away from being close in meaning; indeed, there is a case to be made that they are almost opposites, since skepticism implies looking at ideas using rationality and logic, whereas cynicism implies having a predetermined opinion that some idea is bad or suspicious in some way, often because of the person or persons putting forward the idea.

It is in many people’s interests to put forward nonsense, of course. Primary amongst these are televangelists and others of their ilk. But the incentive to deceive occurs to a larger or smaller extent exists in many professions, from advertisers and salesmen, to politicians, and even to “respected” professions such as lawyers (were I to be a lawyer, I am sure I would prefer to be a defense lawyer, rather than a prosecutor; but, I regret, I suspect that I would have to lie and deceive far more…).

Dishonesty is probably a vital aspect of our humanity. Pity the honest person who comes across a new mother, and, upon seeing the newborn, is faced with the dilemma of retaining his honesty or exclaiming how beautiful the baby is. Or responding to a girlfriend, when she asks if her bottom looks big in her new dress. Or many other social occasions…

So some measure of dishonesty seems necessary for social lubrication. As a result, we are, or should be, compelled to treat every statement, every story, every idea, with a certain degree of skepticism.

Jacobsen: What is age-old non-sense facing young people, even in the information age with digital computers and easily accessible online information?

Roberts: Online information can be totally true, or totally false, or anywhere in between, of course. It is distressing to learn that the current school curriculum in most countries does not teach students how to make rational judgements about such information.

The best test by far is where one can ascertain a truth or falsehood without reference to any outside sources, either online or otherwise.

For example, suppose someone claims that 37 is a prime number. This is easily verifiable – or otherwise – without reference to any dogma. If one is unsure how to do this, then a few searches on how to do it should be sufficient.

Many other facts about the world are self-verifiable. What about some that aren’t? For example, that COVID-19 is a hoax? Or less contagious than influenza? Or spread by 5G? etc.

The best answers to these questions are to trace down research papers in reputable scientific journals. But most of us do not have the time or patience for this, and in any case, most such papers would be unreadable to the layman.

So we must seek something which is authoritative, but also understandable. And here, I must confess, I think Wikipedia is the most excellent resource. It is modern, and open to all, but because of its design philosophy, any falsehoods are normally removed or corrected within hours.

There are also websites such as Skopes.com whose total purpose is to dispel common myths by referencing reliable sources.

Jacobsen: How young should we start creating a culture of fact-checking following from a skeptical attitude about claims?

Roberts: A subject dear to my heart. The abilities to think critically, and to fact-check, should be taught in primary school, as soon as students have some degree of numeracy and literacy, perhaps around the age of 7 or 8. There can be no more important ingredient of a successful life than the ability to distinguish truth from falsehood. Everyone should be imbued with the abilities to judge these critically.

For anyone outside of the U.S., the fact that some 40% of the population support a complete buffoon such as the incompetent, egotistical Trump is a sad indictment of the education system, above all else. It is a verifiable truth that much of his support comes from those who have few skills in critical thinking.

Jacobsen: Religion as a mass of faith and superstition and power continues onward in the world. Some even markedly taking a share of the world’s minds. If a young person was stuck or inculcated into such an upbringing, which is a lot, I am reminded of a video Q&A with Bill Nye. He was sincerely asked about escaping religion. This is a common problem. What is the way out of such an upbringing? What are some critical questions for elders and religious leaders, even peers, within such an environment?

Roberts: There is no difference between a cult and a religion, except for the number of followers. A majority of the world’s population are still today brainwashed as children, depending upon where they happen to be born.

Someone born in Memphis will most likely be raised as a Baptist; if born in Milan, a Catholic; if in Mecca, a Sunni Muslim; in Mosul, a Shia Muslim; in Moga, a Sikh; and in Mumbai, a Hindu – to name just a few.

Now, I make no judgement about the merits, or otherwise, of each of these. But to take just these six major world religions, their differences are of such a magnitude that at least five of the six must be, at the very least, misguided, and at most, just plain wrong.

And so it can be rationally concluded that one’s choice of religion is not a matter of logic and evidence.

But further, and this is important, it is not even a matter of faith.

Rather, it is an accident of birth. The vast majority of those who profess a religious belief have not made a rational choice, but instead followed the custom of their local peer group.

A few people, but very few, understand this, and renounce their religion later in life, and profess agnosticism or atheism. Far fewer still, easily less than 1%, will in their lifetimes convert from one religion to another.

So it can be concluded that our religion is an accident of birth. Nothing more, nothing less.

And the first step to escape, is a realization of this obvious truth.

As someone with whom I happen by chance to share a surname, Stephen Roberts, once wrote to a God-fearing correspondent: “I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.”

Jacoben: How does this all connect to the importance of real and robust critical thinking in education over several years?

Roberts: The ability to think critically is vital to any successful society. That is, one that has learned to live in peace, with decisions made for the benefit of all.

You are interviewing me because I have a high IQ. Regrettably, in my dealings with other similarly high-IQ individuals, I have seen little correlation between a high IQ and a high critical thinking ability. Indeed, almost the reverse. Extreme political views, and strong religious beliefs, and an acceptance of pseudoscience, ESP especially, seem to abound.

Give me a choice between conversing with others with high IQs, or those who can think critically, I will choose the latter every time…

Photo by Mathew Schwartz on Unsplash

Apni Party and its mundane initiative to start political process in J&K

Prof. K.N. Pandita
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Apni Party and its mundane initiative to start political process in J&K

In any case, after a long spell of Presidential rule, the political process has to begin in the Jammu & Kashmir. The administration has to pass into the hands of the elected government. In the lexicon of contemporary politics, normalcy has a new connotation. Just as we may have to put up with Coronavirus so shall we have to put up with fractured normalcy. We may have to live under the shadow of the gun for a long time. Therefore normalcy cannot be taken as the latchkey for entry to the political process.

After their release from house arrest, Kashmir politicians of all hues have demanded resumption of the political process along with other demands.

The newly formed Apni Party is the old wine in a new bottle. Leaders hopping in and out of mainstream parties like NC, PDP and Congress etc. have come together in Apni Party more for personal aggrandizement or ambition than the commonality of ideology. No mainstream party in Kashmir has anything by the name of ideology.  

Nevertheless, lumped or opportunistic formulations are not unknown in the democratic process. Above all, in our democratic setup people are free to form associations. If they felt disgruntled with previous parties that is understandable because of lack of conviction though frequent floor changing is something not generally approved by the voters.

Apni Party was incepted some months back with an aura of fanfare. The prominent members visited New Delhi and met with the Home Minister and the Prime Minister among others. It announced its manifesto, albeit briefly. It gave the impression that the party’s political thinking was more pragmatic. They looked at the political scenario from a different perspective.

However, sceptics were not immediately forthcoming with their reaction but ordinary and gullible people of Kashmir thought the party was planning a breakthrough in the existing stalemate. Thus, they waited and watched.

Over time, the party began to reassess its stand on some of the more ticklish issues of the Union Territory. Like any other serious political party, we noticed rumblings within and people connected with it asked pointed questions. The founding members found it increasingly difficult to give a convincing response not concurrent with what the mainstream political leadership stood for. Perhaps the initial euphoria that had gripped the party began to wane by degrees. The thinking among some sections of civil society and the media as well that the party enjoyed the blessings of New Delhi was no more sustainable. It was so because New Delhi did not show any cognizable appreciation for the emergence of another valley-centric party. BJP cadres in Kashmir had begun to feel that their constituency was expanding in the valley and hence maintained a reasonable distance from Apni Party.

Continued lukewarm response from New Delhi, and diminishing public receptivity in the valley, forced this party to come out with a clear and comprehensive manifesto of how it assesses the ground situation. It didn’t find the nerve to mould the misguided masses.

Only a few days back, the party senior leader led a delegation to the Lt. Governor and presented him a long and exhaustive Memorandum that lists no fewer than 23 demands. A close examination of the Memorandum shows that it is more a wishful list in the cart than a set of policy directives which the party will pursue to sell to the electorate and come to power.

This necessitates a dispassionate study of the text of the Memorandum and the demands tabled. The question that any impartial observer may ask after reading the memorandum is this: In what way does the Memorandum of Apni Party differ from the demands, written or spoken, of other political dissenting parties of the valley? In reality, this Memorandum is a replication of their demand and there is nothing new in it except that in some matters it has shabbily come down to make mundane demands which a district revenue officer can handle. Except for the demand of restoration of the statehood status, restoration of special status and holding of elections for the assembly the rest of the demands are all which administrative machinery can handle. These are no policy matters for which the Governor’s intervention was needed. It is like the home task a teacher suggests to his pupil.

The Memorandum says that the party wants to take up with the Governor some issues on a priority basis. Of course, many issues merit the raising on a priority basis for a solution. But other party spokesmen have also raised these issues and there is nothing significant in raising them again. The government is fully aware of these issues.

We are surprised that some vital issues that need to be discussed and addressed on priority basis have been left out in the Memorandum. There seems no justification for doing so. The foremost issue is of addressing the home-grown terrorism and recurrent encounters that take place not only in South but in North Kashmir also like the districts of Kupwara and Baramulla.

If we analyze the history of militancy of the last two years in Kashmir, we find that the gun-wielding youth are mostly Kashmiris and there are very few Pakistani nationals. Training camps are functional within the valley in deep forests and sequestered forest recesses. That is not a good sign. After all Kashmiri youth went astray are getting killed. Any people-friendly political party must make it the priority to chart out a plan of reaching the villages and towns with a definite mission of dissuading the youth from joining militancy and also getting in touch with the family members to advise them not to allow their kids to adopt the path of violence. There is no word about how to dissuade the Kashmiri youth from joining militancy. Should it not be the concern of a political party based in the valley?

The second glaring discrepancy in the Memorandum is that it is silent about three hundred thousand plus Kashmiri Pandit displaced persons who have become refugees in their own country. The party Memorandum does not demand a commission of inquiry into the genocide of the religious minority of the Pandits, ethnic cleansing of the valley and the forced exodus of the entire community. It does not consider their return and rehabilitation a priority issue whereas it has two paragraphs in the case of a missing person in Rajouri. This discrepancy is intentional and has remained because there is no accredited Pandit representative in the party. The organizers have considered it unnecessary to have a Pandit of acceptable credentials to be a component. We have no grudge against the two Hindu members from Jammu who were part of the delegation for not opening their mouth on Pandit issue because we know they are tongue-less people. As such, the party loses its credentials of secularist construct. Practically it is a party of the valley-based majority community leaders who have been hopping in and out of political parties just because they were not given elbow space.

Another important issue which the Memorandum has very carefully avoided to touch upon is the broad spectrum of State-Centre relationship in future if the statehood status of J&K is restored. As we know, there has been much bitterness on some issues of common interest which has done damage to the interests of the State. The previous regimes had, very, unfortunately, adopted a hostile stance on almost all bilateral matters with the Centre and this was to the detriment of the people of the State.

In the final analysis, the Memorandum is entirely based on a charter of demands and nowhere does it speak about the duties and responsibilities. The fate of such imbalanced and non-nuanced documents is already known to the Kashmir watchers. It abundantly reflects the dilemma and the waywardness of the party and puts a question mark on its ability to deliver goods.

Baloch nationalists expose the real intention behind Brahmadagh Bugti’s video message

News Intervention Bureau
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Baloch nationalists expose the real intention behind Brahmadagh Bugti’s video message

Balochistan’s nationalists used strict and strong words to criticize Brahmadagh Bugti’s demand for a strong and orderly Pakistan. Brahmadagh Bugti is the grandson of Shaheed Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and describes himself as active for the cause of independence of occupied Balochistan and dozens of people from his personal party BRP have sought refuge around the world for this cause.

Brahmadagh Bugti, in a video message on the anniversary of Shaheed Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti admitted that he was in favor of a strong and stable Pakistan. Brahmadagh Bugti’s video has provoked strong reactions in the entire Baloch nation, including the Baloch freedom fighters.

“Brahmadagh Bugti, when you know that Pakistan is sinking & breaking due to Pakistan Army, you should be happy. But u seem worried. Do u want to organize a divided Pakistan or do u want a free Balochistan? It’s better if u express ur vague point of view in simple words for ordinary Baloch,” said Akhtar Nadeem Baloch, the liberal and nationalist Baloch leader in his tweet.

https://twitter.com/AN_Baluch/status/1299264512944635904

Rahim Baloch, the prominent Baloch intellectual and libertarian leader said in his tweet: “Brahmadagh Bugti expresses anxiety about worsening condition of #Pakistan, urges #PPP & #PMLN for rescuing the sinking Pakistan. Is it an attempt to join Pakistan’s mainstream politics? Is it a retraction? Isn’t such confusing statement harmful to his credibility?”

It must be noted that several people believe that Brahmadagh Bugti wants to pave his way with Pakistan for his own personal interests. And he wants to go back and join the national mainstream politics of Pakistan. The proof of Brahmadagh Bugti’s intentions can be seen from the recent interview of
Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch, former puppet chief minister of Balochistan. In his interview Malik Baloch revealed for the first time that during his term when talks with the Baloch Liberation Front was started, his demands in meeting with Brahmadagh Bugti did not contain any point regarding the independence of Balochistan but his demands were regarding basic necessities and rights.

Brahmadagh Bugti enjoying with his friends in Europe. (Photo: News Intervention)

It is thus clear from Brahmadagh Bugti’s latest video that he prefers to be associated with Pakistan over the Baloch national struggle for independence. Occupied Balochistan’s largest media group, Sangar Media told News Intervention that Brahmadagh Bugti did not respond to the emails sent by them.

4 terrorists killed in Shopian encounter, 1 caught alive

Sageer Ahmad
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4 terrorists killed in Shopian encounter, 1 caught alive

Srinagar/ August 28: Four terrorists of Al-Badr who were involved in the abduction and killing of a village panch and Territorial Army jawan were killed in an encounter in Shopian while another terrorist was caught alive.

The four militants affiliated with Al Badr terror outfit were killed in a gunfight that broke after security forces launched a search operation in Kiloora area of Shopian. A joint team of Police, Army’s 44 RR and CRPF launched a cordon-and-search-operation (CASO) in Kiloora.

As the joint team encircled the suspected spot, the hiding militants fired upon them. The fire was retaliated by the joint team, triggering off an encounter.

Inspector General of Police, Kashmir, Vijay Kumar said that terrorist group was involved in killing of a village panch and abduction of Territorial Army solider.

“Shakoor was self styled chief of Al-Badr terror outfit,” he said adding that besides abduction and killing, Shakoor was involved in decamping of rifles in Bijbehara area of Anantnag. “This is indeed a big success.”

IG Vijay Kumar said that interrogation of the apprehended militant is underway. He added that preliminary investigations reveal that terrorist Suhail Ahmad was also involved in kidnapping of Territorial Army soldier on Eid. “The militants have claimed that they have killed TA soldier, but we are verifying the facts.”

The Kashmir police chief said that among group of around 10 Al-Badr militants, three to four are still roaming free. “We are tracking them. Either they will be arrested or killed during the encounter.”

Commanding Officer 44 RR (Rashtriya Rifles) Colonel AK Singh went near the site of an encounter in Kiloora area of Shopian to persuade BUMS (Bachelor of Unani Medicine and Surgery) students turned terrorists for surrender. “I understand the effort that parents undertake to make their son a doctor,” said Colonel AK Singh.

In the month of August this is the second militant who was caught alive in action. A week earlier one militant was apprehended by the same Commanding Officer of 44 RR, Colonel AK Singh at Maldaira Draggad area of Shopian.

Colonel AK Singh tries his best to motivate family members for the return of their misled children. Colonel even visited the homes of most of the active militants of the area and promised every possible help to the families.

Xi to Khan: Will you Become my Partner?

Nilesh Kunwar
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Xi to Khan: Will you Become my Partner?

Will you join my ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) to Khan did Xi say,
“Be rest assured, this project will really and truly make your day;
As the road will run from China through Pakistan to Gwadar port
You’ll make millions by charging for all we send out and import.”
“Oh no, no” said Khan, “to ask me is in vain, and this I say
Since like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, my Gwadar you’ll take away!”

To Khan did Xi say “I’m sure that with a defence budget so very high
Money to run Pakistan must be really hard to come by,
But the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will ensure
That you’ll have all the money you need- infact, much more
“Oh no, no,” said Khan “for I’ve heard of how Kenya is likely to lose
Mombasa port for failing to pay your outstanding dues!”

Said the cunning Xi to Khan, “Dear friend what can I do,
To make life better for  an “all weather friend” like you?”
Chinese companies will execute contracts and even lend money
So just relax and dream big, for our friendship is sweeter than honey!”
“Oh no, no,” said Khan “for I’ve heard of Nigeria’s painful groan
Due to possible consequences for defaulting on repayment of loan!”

“Khan” said Xi, “Your idea of a ‘Naya (New) Pakistan’ is really very good,
And your intelligence and capabilities need to be universally understood”
Come partner with us and see how we not only build a Pakistan that’s ‘new’
But we’ll also make a modern day Kemal Ataturk out of you”
“I thank you, gentle sir,” Khan said, “I’m pleased with what you did say,”
And bidding him good morning now, said, “I’ll call another day.”

Alas, alas! very soon did the silly little Khan return
The snare in Xi’s wily, flattering words, he didn’t discern
“You’re really an ‘all weather friend’ and our friendship’s ‘sweeter than honey’

When the Saudis demanded loan repayment, you gave us the money!”
Then Khan told Xi, “On both BRI and CPEC, Pakistan is with you
Since your proposal sounds like having the cake – and eating it too
So dismissing warnings by well-wishers as foolish and idle talk
Into Xi’s cleverly laid debt-trap did Khan foolishly walk!

Now a lesson to all those who may this story read,
To idle, silly flattering words, I pray you never give heed:
And take a lesson from this tale of Khan and Xi
(Since it’s also applicable to you and me) –
That whenever someone magnanimously offers you something to munch
Don’t forget that in today’s world there’s no such thing as a “free-lunch’!

[Inspired by ‘The Spider and the Fly’ by Mary Howitt]
[With apologies to Mary Howitt]

Dr Allah Nazar Baloch tweets in support of POK journalist Tanveer Ahmed

News Intervention Bureau
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Dr Allah Nazar Baloch tweets in support of POK journalist Tanveer Ahmed

Activists and freedom fighters in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) received support from Dr Allah Nazar on Thursday when the Baloch revolutionary leader tweeted, for the first time, in support of arrested journalists Tanveer Ahmed and Safeer Ahmed. Tanveer and Safeer were arrested by Pakistan for pulling down Pakistan’s flag from Dadyal in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK).

“I strongly condemn the arrest of Tanveer Ahmed and Safeer Kashmiri in Pakistani Occupied Kashmir (PoK). We support and appreciate their struggle because we are facing similar problems and brutalities by Pakistan in Balochistan. #FreePoK,” said Dr Allah Nazar Baloch in his tweet.

https://twitter.com/AllahNizarNizar/status/1298706504007196672
Dr Allah Nazar’s tweet in support of the POK activists and journalists.

Tanveer Ahmed had been demanding that Pakistani flags be removed from POK. He also went on a hunger strike for fifty two hours to pressurize the local administration to remove Pakistan’s flag but when the administration did not do so Tanveer Ahmed went ahead and removed Pakistan’s flag on August 21, after which he was arrested and tortured. When the administration refused to comply, Tanveer chose to remove the Pakistani flags on his own.

Tanveer Ahmed pulling down the Paksitani flag in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on August 21. (Photo: News Intervention)

Kashmiris from the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir took to streets against the arrest of Tanveer Ahmed and Safeer Ahmed. A massive protest rally was organized under the auspices of Jammu and Kashmir National Awami Party at the Maqbool Bhatt Shaheed Chowk at Dadyal, POK.

“Release Tanveer Ahmed and Safeer Ahmed,” was the slogan chanted by the demonstrators. Several other Kashmiris who attended the protest rally said that their silence was being construed by Pakistanis as their weakness. “We know how to protect our state and our people. We will not remain silent to Pakistan’s injustice any longer,” a young participant in the protest rally told News Intervention.

Others who attended the rally condemned the incompetence of Dadyal administration in strong words. “Journalist Tanveer Ahmed and Safeer Ahmed Kashmiri have been arrested and tortured. All the officials who are involved in the arrest and torture must be suspended immediately and our protests will continue till Tanveer and Safeer are released unconditionally,” said Maqbool, a resident of Dadyal, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

News Intervention spoke to several people from Dadyal in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) who said that Pakistan’s presence in POK is no more than that of an occupying country. Putting up Pakistan’s flag in forcibly occupied territory of Kashmir is to strengthen its hold, which is unconstitutional, illegal and immoral. Pakistan cannot consciously compromise on the national identity of the State of Jammu and Kashmir and its unity.

People in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are now getting assertive about their rights and have begun to raise their voice against Pakistani atrocities in POK.

Why PLA’s Mechanisation Strategy is Doomed to Fail in Ladakh?

Ranjit Singh
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Why PLA’s Mechanisation Strategy is Doomed to Fail in Ladakh?

One of the major transformations in the Revolution of Military Affairs (RMA) of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) is mechanization. Xi Jinping, China’s four hatted strongman, directed the PLA to modernise and mechanise the PLA by 2020. In a hurry to meet the deadline, the PLA carried out a complete makeover of the organizational structures creating Theatre Commands, Combined Corps and Combined Arms Brigades (CABs). The CABs, copied from the Russian Motorised Brigades employed in Ukraine in 2014, envisaged a compact, nimble, mechanized and highly mobile force comprising of all arms fully integrated with other services, which could take to battle with minimal logistical support. It was also PLA’s answer to meet its growing expeditionary aspirations especially across the Taiwan Straits as well as its expanding interests in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) and Eurasia.

The Western Theatre Command, responsible for LAC along the 3,488 km long boundary with India, also implemented the CAB (Combined Arms Brigade) model. Comprising 76 and 77 Combined Corps (CCs) each with six CAB brigades and six support brigades, this force located in the plains and lower hills of Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan provinces is the offensive element of the Western Theatre Command troops trained to fight a mechanized battle in the Tibetan plateau. The resident force, essentially the Xinjiang Military District (XMD) and the Tibetan Military District (TMD) comprise a mix of infantry and mechanized formations. These Military Districts (MDs) are yet to convert from Divisions and Brigades to Combined Arms Brigade (CABs). Therefore they retain a profile of largely older equipment and structures. While the Chinese press has been unabashedly churning out propaganda pieces showing modern tanks like T-99A2 and VT15 light tanks as well as PLZ 181 long range howitzers firing and training on the Tibetan plateau, the major equipment profile continues to be the older T-96 tank and the ZBD-97 series of Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs) with towed artillery guns.

Chinese VT-5 tanks

The Terrain in Ladakh

A study of the 872 km long LAC in Ladakh is essential to understand the conduct of operations. While the area on Chinese side of the LAC is open flat and tankable, the same is not true on the Indian side. The LAC is generally aligned along the watershed from North to South ranging from heights of 17,000 ft and tapering down to 11,000 ft as we come closer to Demchok. Except for Depsang plains and the ChipChap Valley floor in the North, which provides for corridors to employ mechanized forces, there are very few tankable corridors along the rest of the LAC. Therefore, initial break in operations call for capture of the watershed and the high ridge lines that dominate the landscape with observation and fire. Once the watershed is breached, the next major obstacle is the Shyok River- Indus River alignment which poses a challenge to the mechanized forces as they are restricted and channelized by limited crossing areas depending on the depth, current and width of the water in the rivers at that point in time. Once the river is crossed, the mechanized forces need to again climb the shoulders of the river valley on own side before reaching the plains. In the area along the Shyok River, no mechanized operations are possible beyond the DSDBO-Shyok River alignment.

Conduct of Operations

A broad study of the terrain would dictate that aside from a small area in the Depsang plains, the conduct of mechanized operations is severely constricted by the availability of corridors and space for maneuver. In fact, if reports are to be believed about the use of presence of tanks and Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs) in the narrow river beds, these would be destroyed piecemeal and systematically by skilful placement of anti-tank weapons, mines and own mechanized forces. These narrow corridors are killing fields for tank hunting teams and well sited anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). In short, the profile of the LAC in Ladakh is not suited for large scale employment of mechanized forces.

The obvious question that arises is, why has PLA not realized the inefficacy of mechanized operations in this sector?

PLA Concept of Warfighting

The PLA concept of warfighting is driven by two major precepts: System Of System Operations (SOSO) and Integrated Joint Operations (IJO). In layman terms, SOSO envisages degradation and destruction of the five major systems that a modern army employs on the battlefield, viz, Intelligence, Logistics, Firepower, Command & Control and Space. While Intelligence systems comprise the eyes like UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), Drones etc. and ears like communication towers, nodes and radars and Logistics systems like ammunition dumps, petroleum depots, supply depots are in the rear of the Tactical Battle Area (TBA), the Firepower systems like missiles, guns, aircraft, attack helicopters etc are located across the TBA alongwith the Command & Control headquarters. The PLA intends to use their newly created PLA Rocket Force and PLA Strategic Support Force to neutralize and degrade these systems of the adversary to “shape” the battlefield before commencing physical attacks.

Xi Jinping, President of China. (Photo: AP)
Xi Jinping, President of China. (Photo: AP)

The physical attacks are launched by an overwhelming use of firepower, in an integrated manner, employing PLAAF (People’s Liberation Army Air Force) and PLARF (People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force) resources to pulverize the objectives. The reorganization of the PLA into CABs has ensured an overwhelming reliance on firepower prior to launch of attacking forces. The idea is to close in as far as possible to the enemy under cover of fire, dismount from the ICVs (infantry combat vehicles) and simply mop up the objectives. The PLA does not envisage physical attacks by its troops like the Indian Army in treacherous mountains of Kargil or the deliberate and slow infantry led operations in the mountains in Arunachal Pradesh.

Therein lies the strength of the Indian Army and the folly of mechanized operations by the PLA in Ladakh and along the LAC. Let me elucidate.

What constrains the PLA?

First, mountains are not like the Steppes and flat plains of Europe. Russia could plan large scale maneuvers across hundreds of kilometres of flat tankable territory but fighting in high altitude areas with high peaks and extreme weather conditions is a huge challenge. Copying the Russian model will come at a cost in the jagged mountain tops and narrow corridors in Ladakh as well as the rocky cliffs and jungles of the North East.

Second, physical capture of territory is essential to claim victory. That means coming out of the ICVs (infantry combat vehicles) and fighting in the open. That gives a decided edge to a defender. For some strange reason, the PLA decided to give up its infantry as an arm in the belief that firepower will win the day. The thought of Han body bags going back home will spell the doom for the image and cult of invincibility woven around the PLA.

Third, mechanized forces are inherently logistics heavy. They require maintenance and repair, all of which needs specialized personnel and equipment to be located well forward as juxtaposed to light infantry, which is agile, short on logistics and adaptable to all kinds of terrain. In terms of cost, retaining heavy tanks and associated guns and equipment comes at a premium, because of reduced service life and need for infrastructure like workshops, spares and garages.

Fourth, mechanized forces cannot hold ground. They require close support of infantry to hold the ground that is overrun or captured. Along the Himalayan watershed, all operations require that mountain passes are first captured and then mechanized forces are inducted across these passes. The challenge is that these roads in the mountains run along valleys and are dominated by heights on either side. Unless the heights astride these axes are held by PLA troops, tanks and ICVs are highly vulnerable. Just one landslide or a boulder can block a highway or road in these valleys. Once lined up they are mincemeat for India’s superior airpower and attack helicopters.

Fifth, while the PLA has gone for firepower in a big way, reinforcing their units with long range artillery at each level, the efficacy of firepower in mountains especially against well-coordinated defenses is suspect. Not only would that expose their ammunition trains and large dumps which are essential to support these operations, it has a huge drain on the logistics chain that follows the fighting echelons.

In sum, the PLA has taken a big risk and gamble by venturing into Ladakh. An untested and “reverse engineered” Russian strategy with Chinese characteristics portends doom for the PLA, should the escalation lead to a skirmish or war. It is no secret that Xi’s ‘top driven’ military strategy has left no space for any PLA commander to contest its efficacy. That will never happen in the PLA. No wonder written orders had to be given that after every confrontational exercise, 90 percent of the points by the umpires and controllers will be negative or critical and only 10 percent will be positive. For all its military might and superiority in technology, what will matter is the motivation, morale and will of the PLA soldier to come out from the shelter and cover of fire and metal and fight at close quarters. That is where the Indian Army will be more than a match. In the final analysis, the strategy of mechanization will require going back to the drawing board for the PLA in mountains. The cost in life and material is simply too big to risk its own survival.

NIA charge sheet establishes Pakistan’s hand in the Feb 2019 Pulwama terror attack

Sageer Ahmad
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NIA charge sheet establishes Pakistan’s hand in the Feb 2019 Pulwama terror attack

Srinagar/ August 25: The charge sheet filed by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in a Jammu court on Tuesday has exposed a clear link between Pakistan and the February 2019 Pulwama terror attack, in which 42 CRPF personnel were martyred. The NIA charge sheet has named
Maulana Masood Azhar the chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), his brothers Abdul Rauf Asghar and Ammar Alvi, and his nephew Muhammad Umar Farooq.

The agency has recovered Pakistan’s National Identity Card from one of the 19 terrorists named in the charge sheet, Muhammad Umar Farooq, who has been killed by security forces. The Computerised National Identity Card (CNIC) is an identity card issued by the Pakistan government and is issued to Pakistani citizens above 18 years. It is an equivalent to India’s Aadhar Card.

Car used by terrorists that was filled with explosives and rammed into the CRPF convoy at Pulwama on February 14, 2019. (Photo: News Intervention)
Car that was filled with explosives and rammed into the CRPF convoy by terrorists at Pulwama on February 14, 2019. (Photo: News Intervention)

As per the charge sheet, Muhammad Umar Farooq was trained in explosives in Afghanistan in 2016-17 after which he infiltrated into India through the international border at the Jammu-Samba sector in April 2018. He had taken over charge as a Jaish-e-Mohammad commander before the Pulwama terror attack. Another accused, Mohammad Iqbal Rather, 25, a resident of Budgam, facilitated Farooq’s movement in the region. Umar Farooq, along with others, had assembled the IED used in the terror attack.

From left: Muhammad Umar Farooq, Sameer Dar and Adil Dar with their faces smeared with Aluminium powder used in the assembly of IED. (Photo: News Intervention)

Out of the 19 names in the charge sheet, 7 are in NIA’s custody, another 7 are said to have been encountered by the security forces, and 5 are said to be in Pakistan. The 7 JeM operatives under NIA’s custody include Mohammad Abbas Rather, Tariq Ahmad Shah, Mohammad Iqbal Rather, Shakir Bashir Magrey, Waiz-ul-Islam, Insha Jan, and Bilal Ahmed Kuchey.

Tariq Ahmad Shah and his daughter Insha Jan at village Hakripora, Pulwama. Both have been arrested by the NIA. (Photo: News Intervention)

On July 5 last month, the NIA made the 7th arrest in the Pulwama terror attack case. The arrested individual Bilal Ahmed Kuchey who runs a sawmill has been accused of harbouring and extending support to the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists involved in the attack. Kuchey introduced the terrorists to other Over Ground Workers (OGWs) who provided them safe houses during the planning of the attack.

Pulwama terror attack

At around 3 PM on February 14, 2019, a Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist drove an explosive-laden SUV into a convoy of vehicles carrying CRPF personnel on the Srinagar-Jammu national highway in South Kashmir’s Pulwama district. This resulted in the killing of 40 CRPF personnel. As per reports, around 80 kg of explosives were used for the attack.

According to NIA sources, Pakistan used Adil Ahmad Dar, a local resident who rammed an explosive-laden car into a CRPF convoy in Pulwama, as a suicide bomber to project the attack as a result of a home-grown militancy against “India’s occupation of Kashmir”.

Around 12 days after the terror attack, in the wee hours of February 26, Indian Air Force (IAF) jets had bombed the Jaish-e-Mohammad camp in Balakot, in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province as a retaliation to the cowardly attack.

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