The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of September 1960 gives 33
Million Acre Feet (MAF) of Eastern Rivers to India for its exclusive use. This
is the quantum of annual flows in Rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej that are collectively
known as the Eastern Rivers.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, 138 MAF annual flows of the Rivers
Chenab, Jhelum and the Indus were given to Pakistan. These are known as the
Western Rivers and were given to Pakistan.
It works out to an apportionment of 19.48% of Indus basin
waters to India. Pakistan gets 80.52% of the basin waters. This is why this Treaty
is sometimes pejoratively referred to as 80:20 Treaty favouring Pakistan.
Be that as it may, but about 2 MAF water of the River Ravi flows
into Pakistan, downstream of Madhopur Headwords. This will henceforth be stopped
and diverted away from Pakistan territories lying downstream.
It will happen because of the revival of Shahpur Kandi
Barrage Project. This projects’ details were first worked out between Punjab
and Jammu & Kashmir in January 1979. It remained incomplete for decades, work
was revived later on but was stopped again in 2016.
Now, things have been sorted out between Punjab and its
neighbouring state Jammu & Kashmir. Due to intervention from the Central
government which has declared it to be a national project. So far, about 2 MAF
of River Ravi’s water continues to flow into Pakistan every year despite it being
the Indian share under the IWT. This will stop going into Pakistan over the
next couple of years.
Besides, about 0.58 MAF waters of the River Ujh flows into
Pakistan but it is a tributary of Ravi and the entire water flow is part of India’s
share. This too will be diverted in a manner that it will stop flowing into
Pakistan territories located downstream south west of River Ujh.
Thus from these two projects alone, Pakistan stands to lose
2.58 MAF of water per annum, after they are completed over the next few years.
This will put a squeeze on Pakistan and water availability in Punjab will be
more problematic than it already is.
Presently, Pakistan draws 3.7 MAF of groundwater annually.
Of this, only 3 MAF gets recharged leaving a deficit of 0.7 MAF. This is
creating problems in Pakistan and drawing groundwater is becoming costlier with
every passing day.
In the years to come, recharge of groundwater in large areas
of Punjab in Pakistan will only worsen as 2.58 MAF stops flowing there. The
recharge deficit will only increase substantially and add to the distress of farmers.
The construction of Ujh Multipurpose Project to create
storage of 781 MCM (Million Cubic Metre) is the third project which will stop India’s
water share from flowing into Pakistan. Together, the three projects will have
very deleterious effects on Pakistan.
It needs to be made clear that a humongous quantity of
water, 2.58 MAF per year, for the last 60 years has already flown into
Pakistan, though this water was India’s share. In the next five to six years,
this is set to change completely.
Presently, India uses 95% of 33 MAF it has been allotted
under the IWT. Once this utilisation is enhanced further, India will be able to
utilise its entire share of waters under the IWT division of rivers.
