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Corporatisation is a strategic necessity for Ordnance Factory Board

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar (Retd.)
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Corporatisation is a strategic necessity for Ordnance Factory Board

‘Atmanirbharata’ in the defence sector is nationally imperative for strategic autonomy. Putting to rest speculation of all cynics/sceptics, India is currently facing a real two-front war scenario in multiple domains of PDIME (political, diplomatic, informational, military and economic domains), with focus on the continental domain where our IAF and Indian Navy will play equally decisive roles. Public and social media is awash with speculation of what all, how much, and at what cost is India importing defence related munitions, equipment and spares to meet all emergent contingencies. This further highlights the strategic necessity of India to be independent in critical defence related products.

Pivoted around the sub-optimal Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) factories, our defence industrial base is woefully inadequate to ensure ‘Atmanirbharata’, which is imperative for the sovereignty and integrity of India. We enjoy the dubious distinction of being the largest arms importers accounting for 13% of global sales according to SIPRI data. India increased its arms imports by 43% between 2007–-11 and 2012–16. About 60–65% of military hardware is of Russian/Soviet origin. If the import figures since 1950 to 2017 are analysed, India has imported $119.89 billion worth of arms; by far the largest globally and double than that of Saudi Arabia.

Crisis Management

On 12 May 2020, PM Modi announced a special economic and comprehensive package of Rs 20 lakh crore to revive the Indian Economy from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also called for an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ to become self-reliant in future and outlined five pillars of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ – Economy, Infrastructure, System, Vibrant Demography and Demand. As a part of the package, the Finance Minister announced certain key structural reforms in the Defence Sector on 16 May, in which ‘Corporatisation of OFB’ was a primary ingredient. In pursuance of the initiative, the MoD finalised KPMG Advisory Services-led consortium for providing strategic and implementation management consulting services to assist the MoD in the process of corporatization. Not surprisingly, the three federations of defence manufacturing sector workers of OFB, have issued the notice of a nationwide indefinite strike from 12 October against the proposed corporatization.

Historical Background

India inherited all 18 Ordnance Factories established by the British. These have since grown to 41 Ordnance Factories, 13 Development Centres and 9 Institutes of Learning divided into five operating divisions based on category of products–

·     Ammunition and Explosives        – 11 factories

·      Vehicles and Weapons                  – 11 factories

·      Material and Components            – 8 factories

·      Armoured Vehicles                       – 6 factories

·      Equipment Factories                     – 5 factories

Conceptually, they were expected to be national strategic assets with the potential of not only meeting national military hardware requirement, but also contribute to overall Comprehensive National Power (CNP), and earn valuable foreign exchange by exporting. The major buyers are the Armed Forces (Army being the top buyer), along with some supplies to CAPF and exports/civil trade.

The sub-optimal efficiency of this potential strategic asset is one of the major contributing factor that threatens the ammunition and armament holdings of the Indian Army. It is also a matter of concern that certain countries have refused to accept ordnance factory manufactured ammunition and equipment offered against Defence Lines of Credit due to concerns regarding quality of products, procedures in the factories and the inefficient post sales service support. Similar issues plague some of our DPSUs too which are involved in manufacture of military hardware.

Management and Organisation Structure

Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) Headquarters: Its location at Kolkata is a colonial legacy. The Chairman and his staff seek decisions from Ministry of Defence in New Delhi. Resultant costs and waste of time and public money are exorbitant, along with the need of running a parallel infrastructure at Delhi. It is pertinent to mention that the last seven DGs have had a tenure varying from four months to less than one year, providing no continuity, impacting higher leadership and obfuscating strategic direction to be pursued

OFB Organisation: The establishment functions as a three-tiered system with the Department of Defence Production (DDP-MoD) at the Apex. The OFB performs the executive functions and management of production units. The Ordnance Factory Board is managed by IOFS officers. The board is headed by a Director General and eight members. Five members of the board are responsible for functioning of each of the five manufacturing groups and three members are responsible for staff functions of personnel, finance and marketing. The OFB has around 81,000 personnel with about 1,400 officers.

Financial Structure: Fully owned by the government, budgetary allocations to the OFB under capital and revenue heads amounted to approximately 1% of the total defence budget for 2017–18 (BE). OFB is unable to run the factories with its own profits. Armed Forces, especially the Army, are captive customers irrespective of shortfalls in quality, delayed supplies, costly products and indifference to complaints.

OFB Performance Far Short of Expectations: Major Grey Areas

Cost of Production: Ordnance factories operate on ‘No Profit No Loss’ basis. The products are supplied at a price that includes ‘actual cost of production’. Actual cost of production is very high because all non-production expenditure is added to the pricing making the products extremely expensive. Captive consumers have no choice due to government policies. The cost of production includes — cost of material, cost of direct labour and overhead costs. The high pricing of OFB items is mainly attributed to the high percentage of overhead costs. Overhead costs can be further divided into fixed overheads such as indirect labour, supervisory charges and variable overheads such as indirect stores (stores other than raw material and components), transportation, electricity, depreciation and writing off products which are rejected by DGQA and others.

Just to elucidate, a combat dress which costs Rs. 1,800/- ex trade is priced at Rs. 3,300/-, jersey (Rs. 750/-//1,950/-), Ashok Leyland Stallion vehicle (Rs. 17/28 lakhs). It’s the Armed Forces that are being penalised; they pay the excessive costs out of the already stringent defence budget.

Production Shortfalls, Lack of Quality Control and Timeline Delays: As per 2019 CAG Report, from 2013 to now, the production shortfalls every year has been more than 50%. Importantly, the shortfall in supply of critical ammunition is a major concern. Between April 2014 and April 2019, Rs. 658.58 crore worth of products were declared unserviceable before their shelf life was over. Consequently, the government has opened up the defence sector to the private industry, allowing the armed forces to procure a few comparatively better products at competitive rates. Accordingly, 275 items manufactured by Ordnance Factories were declared as ‘non-core items’ in April 2017 by the government, another 93 in November 2017 and 39 in January 2018.

Lack of Accountability and Quality: Between 2014 and 2019, there have been 403 major accidents (majority of them being products for the Infantry and Artillery) related to armaments and ammunition, most of them leading to fatal/non-fatal casualties.

Factory Staffing Norms (Not as per Industry Norms): The OFB has a staffing structure modelled upon supervisory government departments rather than an industry. This has resulted in a supervisor to industrial employee ratio of 1:1.41 as against manufacturing industry standard of 1:5.

Supervisory costs on an average account for 65% as against an industry standard of 30% of the total labour cost of the OFB and account for 42% of its overhead costs.

Monopoly in Products a Disincentive for Innovation: Ordnance Factory Board enjoys monopoly on several products required by the armed forces. Lack of accountability leads to minimal innovation and technology development and hardly any incentive to improve quality and cost efficiency.

Major Concerns Projected for Corporatisation

Concern of Employees: The biggest concern of the OFB employees is that ‘corporatisation’ is the first step towards ‘privatisation’, and is likely to result in layoffs and job cuts. However, as of now the government has made it clear that it is not thinking of ‘privatisation’ in the near future and OFB will function akin to the various PSUs, post corporatisation.

Commercial Viability: The argument is that corporatisation of OFB will not be commercially viable since there are no fixed scales and periodicity of demands by the armed forces, irregular timelines for placing orders, uneconomical order quantity and life cycle support required for 30-40 years after the introduction of an equipment. It’s worth mentioning that DPSUs are also managing these issues.

Surge in Demand during War: OFB’s supposedly have some idle capacity as a war reserve, to cater for surge in demand during war, as was demonstrated during the Kargil conflict. This aspect needs to be analysed further. A vibrant private defence sector is one answer.

Corporatisation of OFB is likely to transform ordnance factories into a modernised, state of the art facility with flexible and better decision making in its functioning. This move is likely to make them more competitive and self-reliant in production of arms and ammunition and convert it to a profit earning organisation in the next few years. Coupled with a vibrant private defence sector it is the panacea/answer for India’s ‘Atmanirbharata’ and a decisive step towards becoming a major power amongst the comity of nations.

(Part II of the article will focus on defence reforms (measures) announced by the Finance Minister and advantages of ‘Corporatisation of OFB’)

Why didn’t big media report about the historic Miran Shah Rally of Pashtuns

News Intervention Bureau
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Why didn’t big media report about the historic Miran Shah Rally of Pashtuns

A Massive Rally was organised by PTM (Pashtun Tahafuz Movement) at Miran Shah, the nodal centre of Waziristan on November 15. Lakhs of Pashtuns participated in the PTM’s Miran Shah Rally on Nov 15 despite severe restrictions imposed by Pakistan Army. Pashtuns braved severe cold and rains for the Miran Shah Rally in order to prove that they are not Pakistanis, rather their identity is of a “Pashtun”. Political analysts say that this is the largest Pashtun rally since the independence of Indian subcontinent in 1947.

Pashtun leaders Manzoor Pashteen, Mohsin Dawar, Ali Wazir and several others addressed this massive Pashtun rally at Miran Shah. Pashtuns show of strength at Miran Shah was to demand an independent nation for Pashtuns so that they escape the brutalities of Pakistan Army.

Click on the YouTube link to watch video report

Pashtuns have always been used by the Punjabi province of Pakistan, Pakistan Army and ISI in the name of Islam. Pashtuns were turned into suicide bombers. Chaos and mayhem created across Afghanistan and attacks on Kashmir were part of this strategy.

Miran Shah Rally sent a clear message that Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line are united and that they would not tolerate barbaric atrocities of Pakistan Army and the ISI. Thousands of children and elderly women also came with photographs of their “Missing” family members at the Miran Shan Rally.

The flame of nationalism has been lit across Pashtunistan and the Pashtuns have now understood the gambit of Punjabi Pakistan Army and the ISI.

Geopolitical analysts say that the Pashtun uprising is a harbinger of major global changes. PTM’s Miran Shah Rally is a game changer for geo-politics across South Asia.

Interestingly, this massive Miran Shah Rally got Zero Coverage in the Pakistani media, which only proves how Pakistani media carries out diktats doled out by the ISI and Pakistan Army.

Even the international media did not cover the Miran Shah Rally that shows the misplaced priorities of big media organisations. There is a massive surge of nationalism amongst Pashtuns, which could also change the boundaries in South Asia.

Pak’s decision to change Gilgit-Baltistan’s status is backdoor deceit

Jaibans Singh
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Pak’s decision to change Gilgit-Baltistan’s status is backdoor deceit

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on November 1 announced that his government would give “provisional provincial status” to its occupied territory Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit-Baltistan was a part of the pre-Independence princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. It became a part of India on the basis of legal accession of the state to the country in October 1947, and is internationally accepted to be under forcible occupation of Pakistan. Hence, the action proposed by Imran Khan is illegal under the international law and India has aptly protested on the same. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has stated that India “firmly rejects” the attempt by Pakistan to bring “material changes” to a “part of Indian territory under its illegal and forcible occupation.” “Any action by Pakistan to alter the status of the militarily-occupied so-called ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’ has no legal basis whatsoever and is totally void ab-initio,” said Anurag Srivastava, spokesperson of MEA.

The attitude of Pakistani federal government, regardless of the party in power, has always been perfidious and double dealing, so far as Gilgit-Baltistan is concerned. This deceit and treachery go back to the times when the region was called Northern Areas and was plundered by the federal government with impunity due to its ambiguous political status. In continuation of the exploitative practices, the region was in 2009, renamed Gilgit-Baltistan through the Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self Governance) Order, 2009, which replaced the Northern Areas Legislative Council (NALC) with a Legislative Assembly. The NALC was an elected body, but had a mere advisory role in the Ministry for Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas, which ruled Gilgit-Baltistan from Islamabad. The 2009 order had no legal sanctity, since it did not emanate from the federal National Assembly and the Senate. It was merely an executive directive signed by the oppressive Ministry of Kashmir Affairs & Northern Areas. On ground, no worthwhile power has been vested upon the assembly constituents.

It is notable that in the run up to the sham Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election of 2015, the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had also prevailed over the Gilgit-Baltistan Supreme Appellate Court Bar Association to issue a demand for grant of a “Provisional Province of Pakistan” status, which was strongly opposed by the people. Imran Khan is following the same principle.

This matter has been on the discussion table for quite some time in Pakistan. Pakistan’s newspaper ‘Dawn’ reported in September that the government and the opposition had “almost reached a consensus” on granting ‘provisional provincial status’ to the region. Imran Khan could not have called for such a consensus without the explicit approval of his boss, General Qamar Bajwa, who is the chief of Pakistan Army for a second term. It is also reported that Gen Bajwa met all the key opposition parties in September to explain what was coming.

The fact that such an order has emanated from Gen Bajwa at a time when the army has taken over the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an indication of the Chinese influence in the political drama that is being played out. It is no secret that China has been demanding a provincial status for Gilgit-Baltistan for long in order to safeguard its assets being created for the CPEC. It, therefore, has become imperative for Bajwa to assuage Chinese concerns about the safety of the massive $60 billion investment.

Pakistani propaganda machinery has been attempting to equate the proposed move with the change in the status of Jammu and Kashmir brought about by the Indian Government in August 2019. This is a false propaganda as the Government of India amended the Indian Constitution, while Article 257 of the Pakistan’s Constitution states that the country cannot change the status of the region without the wishes of the people.

By proposing to make GIlgit-Baltistan a province, Pakistan is acknowledging that the August 5 change of status of Jammu and Kashmir carried out by India will no longer be contested by the country. In other words, Pakistan is all set to abandon the so-called “cause of Kashmir” that it has been fraudulently espousing for so many decades. Its double dealing is becoming quite apparent. It is not without reason that Hurriyat Conference leaders are speaking openly against the proposal. Sayyid Abdullah Gillani, the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) based so-called special representative of Syed Ali Shah Geelani has reportedly termed the step as one that is “laden with disastrous consequences.” POK President Sardar Masood Khan has also opposed the move.

Pakistan is trying to justify the move by projecting it through the media as a policy shift that could secure vital geostrategic, economic, and energy interests while strengthening Pakistan’s Kashmir stance at the United Nations. Even a cursory look at the economic condition of all provinces in Pakistan other than Punjab shows the inherent contradictions in the “economic development” argument. So far as the United Nations is concerned, there is no talk on the issue. Hence, the arguments being given by Pakistan in support of the move fall flat. 

India is determined to get back the occupied territories of Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan and fulfill the unfinished agenda of the Partition. Indian Government and Indian Army have strongly reiterated that the nation is prepared for a two front war, if it is imposed by the devious enemies. Attempting to make Gilgit-Baltistan the 5th Province of Pakistan will be yet another blunder committed by Imran Khan as the prime minister of his country. Whatever perfidy Imran Khan and his ilk may attempt, they cannot keep the people of Gilgit-Baltistan oppressed for long. The people will soon enjoy the fruits of freedom and democracy as a part of their own country – India.  

China’s expansionism policy backfires in Eastern Ladakh

Prof. K.N. Pandita
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China’s expansionism policy backfires in Eastern Ladakh

China made a grave miscalculation in opening front against India in the Eastern Ladakh. It shows that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has turned into a typecast unable to keep pace with the dynamics of the changing world order. Its intrusive economic ventures globally have induced many developed countries in the West to look for protection and perpetuation of their commercial well-being.

Beijing’s miscalculations are twofold: It towed with its outmoded and unrealistic calculation of India’s ability to defend its borders competently, and secondly, it wrongly overestimated the effectiveness of Indian opposition. Both these miscalculations stem from the lack of democratic experience.

The Eastern Ladakh Sino-Indian standoff has not only unfolded PM Modi’s laudable strategic grasp of the ground situation but has also shown his resoluteness in dealing with threats and intimidations. Western leaders have acknowledged India’s ability and farsightedness to row through the rough waters.

The significant take from China’s misadventure is that India has blunted China’s old habit of expansionism along its long Himalayan border by intimidating smaller states and regions lying in the outskirts.  India is reaping the consequence of allowing Beijing to occupy the vast Tibetan plateau without demur.

The standoff in Eastern Ladakh demeaned China for its lust for territorial expansion-making it look like a minion and not a world power.  The world witnessed how China’s status was receding in the face of India’s will to meet the challenge. In fact, for the first time in history, India has successfully stonewalled the inflow of a northern predator.

 The significant take from the Himalayan heights’ standoff for China is that in dealing with India, Beijing must forget the narrative of its 1962 intrusion into the Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh. If pragmatism rules China’s Himalayan strategy, it must change the goalpost and lookout for a new phase of parity in the Sino-Indian relationship. China needs to understand that its strength lies not in behaving like a blood-sucking leech but a large-hearted benevolent state showing due respect to the borders with its neighbours. 

Pragmatism in the strategy means bringing into focus the ramifications of the Himalayan high altitude conflict, which China believes would be a booster to Pakistan’s belligerence along the Indo-Pak LoC in J&K.  However, China needs to understand that the Sino-Indian battle over the frozen Himalayas will be practically and ultimately fought in warm waters of the Indo-Pacific maritime channels with lasting consequences. Such is the dynamics of the ever-changing strategies in the region.

Although the pace of mega projects like the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Belt and Road (B&R) has slowed down, owing to Covid-19 and other undisclosed reasons, yet these remain the flagship projects with China and there seems no volte-face now. However, for quite some time, China has been voicing its unease on the actual status of Gilgit and Baltistan, a region which India claims as its rightful territory, and holds China as an illegal occupant.

For quite some time, Beijing has been insisting on Islamabad to bring about a meaningful change in the legal, constitutional and administrative status of Gilgit Baltistan that would indirectly reinforce China’s position as the pioneering investor in the economic and logistic development of the region. Some constitutional reforms that were introduced in Gilgit Baltistan in the recent past were no more than eyewash. These reforms generated more antagonism than reconciliation within the region.

Secondly, China is conscious of the fact that the presence of PLA and Chinese workers in Gilgit-Baltistan is vehemently resented by the local population as in Baluchistan. In either case, the real irritant is neither China nor the PLA, but Pakistan, which has not given the people of these regions their legitimate civil and political rights and powers. The demographic change brought about in the region by Lt. Gen Parvez Musharraf, the then Corpse Commander of 11th Corps of Pak army and stationed in Northern Areas is eating into the vitals of Pakistan politics.

China is convinced that Pakistan will never be able to take an inch of the territory of Kashmir that is under the control of India. It also understands that intensified border clashes and repeated attempts of infiltration into Indian part by the terrorist legions based in Pakistan and PoK may prompt India for a wider, deeper and more effective Balakot-like surgical strike or something bigger on terror-infested locales in Pakistan mainland supplemented by a plan that India had conceived following the shooting down of Wing Commander Abhinava’s jet aircraft somewhere over the PoK. In a prospect of India-Pakistan armed clash, China will be the loser because it can neither come to the rescue of Pakistan nor can it safeguard its onshore interests in the India-Pacific region, if it turns into a war zone.

Considering all these assumptions, astute statesmanship would prompt China to come out of its stereotype phantasm and meet the challenge in a way that security of the region and peace and tranquillity are ensured.  It has to play a role of friendly adviser to Pakistan –– a country it has been grooming for decades — and a well-meaning country with strong credentials of an astute player on the international chessboard.

China should also realize that since the restoration of normalcy and peaceful coexistence among the nations in South Asian region is the pre-requisite of just and equitable trade and commerce, the fundamental principle, which will help bring about such a conducive atmosphere is that the stakeholders should be prompted to say goodbye to hard-line politics and demonstrate the more resilient approach to the seven-plus decades-old Kashmir issue.

Pakistan has finally responded to China’s exhortation of integrating Gilgit Baltistan into Pakistan as its fifth province. As expected, India has lodged a strong protest against any step of that sort, arguing that it will be contrary to the Security Council Resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir.  Even if Pakistan integrates Gilgit Baltistan as its fifth province it will not give any real relief to China.  India has a strong case not only in Gilgit Baltistan but also in Shaksgam Valley as well, which Pakistan has ceded to China.

Assuming that China with the potential of making use of high-level statesmanship can bring about an understanding between India and Pakistan about conversion of existing LoC into IB, the question arises what will it do with Shaksgam and Aksaichin areas that originally belong to India? India will not accept any deal between New Delhi and Islamabad brought by China, who runs away with the chunk of land that it has grabbed illegally, to be retained till the Kashmir issue is decided between the two warring nations. If a deal does happen between India and Pakistan, the question that pops up is what is to be done with the Shaksgam Valley, when Pakistan and China have agreed to review it in the light of the resolution of Kashmir conflict between India and China.

For injecting blood into the veins of this hypothetical solution of Kashmir and other issues, initiation of primary spadework on the subject and proceed cautiously should be the approach. It would not be out of place to suggest that the UN should constitute a working group of legal advisers to help the stakeholders to discuss the issue after receiving the broad outline of a compromise formula from the actual stakeholders.

It needs to be remembered that Kashmir is a very complicated issue and there should be no hasty or emotional solution to it. Any viable deal on which attention is focused has to be internationalized. Aspirations of the people cannot be conceded in a vacuum but have to be taken into account along with geostrategic compulsions and oddities. Without the participation of the accredited world body like the UN, no real disengagement of the logjam is possible.

Similarly, the issue of displacement of population, their resettlement and security, the future of relationship among the countries in the region, trade, commerce and overland road and air connectivity, etc., needs to be sorted one by one.

We need to remember that a just and reasonable formula to be cobbled after a free and full exchange of views would also mean to give and take. Beijing knows the vision and capacity of Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India.

Soldier’s will to fight: Implications for Indian Armed Forces

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar (Retd.)
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Soldier’s will to fight: Implications for Indian Armed Forces

“Man behind the Machine matters Most, Always and Every time”

Humans: The Final Arbiter in Battle        
Assessing morale and will to fight (adversary and own) is crucial to the science and art of war (Warcraft). Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political scientist at New York University, reckons human will matters enough for many wars to be won by what starts off, in strict military terms, as the weaker side [i].  With very few exceptions, all wars and almost all battles are decided by matters of human will: breaking the enemy’s will to fight while sustaining one’s own will to fight is the key to success in battle. Will to fight is the disposition and decision to fight, to keep fighting and to win.

Technology, Transparency and Modern Weapon Systems: Dilution of Human Impact
With continuous and increasing emergence of modern, potent, accurate, and long-range weapon systems, technology including autonomous systems, and ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance), the essentially human nature of war is getting ignored. Many in the past have felt the same. Military history is, as a consequence, littered with disastrously wrong assumptions about belligerents’ will to fight. France (1950s), America and China (1960-70s), three UNSC members and major powers, for instance, famously underestimated the determination of Vietnam’s National Liberation Front when they intervened in Vietnam for their own strategic reasons and got a bloody nose instead. During the battle of DOGRAI on the Indo Pak border in the 1965 war, 3 JAT (Indian infantry battalion), known for their sustained dogged courage in battle, led by Lt Col Hayde, MVC achieved a superb victory against overwhelming odds. Lack of focus on the will to fight could create a vulnerable situation to many armed forces and nations forcing a critical situation. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of the will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise.

Use of Modern Computing to Quantify Morale and Will
Behavioral scientists are now, bringing the power of modern computing to bear on the question. Defence planners have long used computers to forecast the results of conflicts by crunching data on things like troop numbers, weapons capabilities, ammunition supplies and mechanized forces, air and naval forces quantification. The next step, which will be hugely facilitated with the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific models, is to extend the idea into the area of morale, by quantifying the psychological variables that determine whether troops will flee, or stand and fight. 

Important Definitions/Aspects pertaining to Will to Fight             Predicting human behavior is not an exact science, however, we can significantly improve our understanding of an individual or a units’ will to fight by assessing and analyzing disposition[ii], which allows for an estimation of overall military effectiveness and forecasting of behavior. Wars rarely end simply because one military destroys another. Government and leaders determine how and when wars end, and they may have to decide many times during a conflict whether their country should continue enduring risk and sacrifice or whether it is time to stop fighting. Tangible factors, such as remaining force levels, logistical resilience, weapon systems, are obviously part of the decision calculus, but it is often less-tangible political and economic variables that ultimately determine what might be called a national will to fight. It is the determination of a national government to conduct sustained military and other operations to achieve their objective, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases.

Pivotal Role of Influence Information and Psychological Operations (IIO and PSYOPS) affecting Morale and Will to Fight   Confrontation/conflicts have moved from attrition to manoeuvre, and now to a combination of the above along with the cognitive domains of Information (Influence) Operations (IIO/IO) and Psychological Operations (PSYOPS). Nations would always prefer achieving their strategic aims without warfighting in the traditional sense, and impose their will using cognitive/non-kinetic domains. There are innumerable examples in military history where larger/stronger forces have lost purely because they lost morale and the will to fight. One very recent and extremely vivid and game changing event in history where IO and PSYOPS destroyed an Army’s will to fight, is the Capture of Northern Iraq by ISIS. In the summer of 2014 the IS (ISIL/ISIS or Daesh in Arabic) roared into Northern Iraq in pick-ups and fully armed (even swords), and blew away four fully trained and equipped Iraqi divisions which vanished overnight into thin air.[iii] But, contrary to tradition, they did not keep their operations a secret but wanted the world to know everything about it. The IS succeeded in subverting the minds and weakening/destroying the will to fight of all commanders, troops and the local population psychologically. Closer home, despite an asymmetric superiority in comprehensive national power (CNP), military and multi-domain fighting capabilities of the Chinese PLA along the LAC in East Ladakh, the Indian Armed Forces operational and tactical superiority, combat experience, high altitude expertise, years of managing the LC/LAC, and the Indian jawans fortitude, raw courage and morale puts India Army on an equal (if not better) footing to negotiate.

Indian Army: Lack of Scientific Models to Evaluate Morale and Will to Fight
In our Armed Forces, lot of emphasis is paid to attributes of a leader and the role of morale as important battle winning factors. Theoretical and practical aspects are covered for officers and troops at the initial training, courses and on the job. However, we have not really added its contribution (being intangible) when evaluating/or when carrying out a net-assessment (see definition in Notes[iv] of an adversary’s military strength and potential. In our Armed Forces we do a mix of scientific model(s), and affix values to tangibles based on historical precedence/subject experts/ground experience/collective wisdom of group (Delphi system of management[v]). Indian armed forces needs to create models (specific to different situation/terrain/enemy) to assess value of own/adversary’s intangibles like morale and will to fight, which has become vital in today’s warfare.

Rand Corporation Report 2108[vi] on Will to Fight: An Overview  
In 2019, RAND published two reports for the US Army describing the will to fight[vii]. They found that there is no generally accepted definition, explanation, or model of will to fight. This means that armed forces and subsidiary forces have no central point of reference for understanding what is, according to joint doctrine, the most important factor in warfare. They created a three-step model to which they finally integrated will to fight in simulation, and needs to be incorporated in planning for actual combat situations.

  • Step 1. Adopt Universal Definitions which are useful and necessary starting point for mutual understanding.
  • Step2. Creating a working model- A nine-step explanatory–exploratory–portable Model has been created.
  • Step 3. Integrating Will to Fight in Simulation and Net Assessment of Forces- Computer simulation, tabletop exercises, and wargames can help bring clarity to complex issues and concepts, such as will to fight. If will to fight is one of the most important factors in war, and if it is absent or poorly represented in military gaming and simulation, and during net assessments, then it is a dangerous gap.

Findings on Morale and Fighting Spirit[viii]. Training, espirit-de-corps, morale, motivation, capabilities and culture are important facets contributing to the will to fight. After diligent research some interesting observations/conclusions are bulleted as follows:

  • Those who declared themselves willing to sacrifice the most were the ones who also seemed least interested in material comfort and economic prospects. This was confirmed by actual embedding with troops and post-mapping for reality check.
  • A typical fighting force, it is generally thought, will collapse sometime before a third of it has been destroyed. However, exceptions are there, for example some Kurdish and IS units in Iraq, fought on in a coordinated fashion after sustaining far more grievous losses. (Battles on famous last stands available online are strongly recommended for reading. Names of famous Indian armed forces battles post-independence are given in the end notes[ix]).
  • Soldiers’ identity must get fully “fused” with those of his brothers in arms. Their top priority has shifted from family to another cause, a transcendental ideal that has become so “sacralised” that it would not be traded away for anything (seen in fundamentalist groups). It is a truism of the Indian infantry soldier that he dies/ready to die for his ‘paltan/units izzat/respect’, more than for the motherland.
  • Fanaticism has long been recognized as a plus in a soldier, be it the Zealots of ancient Israel, the Roman Catholic conquistadors of the Americas, or the Nazis’ 12th SS “Hitler Youth” Panzer Division.
  • War is a human endeavor, and we must treat it as such.

Famous/Historic Battles showcasing will to fight upsetting military superiority

  • Failed assessment of the Arab will to fight leading up to the 1973 Yom Kippur War resulted in strategic surprise, nearly leading to the defeat of Israel.
  • The CIA’s analysis of the Vietnamese will to fight.
  • The Afghan Mujahideen of yesteryears and Afghan Taliban of today have displayed such staying power, making up for their lesser capabilities with motivation, improvisation and living conflict as a way of life. Likewise, casualties tend to “weaken or strengthen an adversary’s national will to fight”. In the case of the Al-Qaeda/Taliban, casualties tend to incite their revenge instincts, enhancing their will to fight.
  • In the 1965 Indo-Pakistan War of 1965, Pakistan had expected a quick retreat of the Indian Army from J&K leading to the re-opening of negotiations, when it launched its pre-emptive “Operation Grand Slam” in Kashmir. India expanded the war by attacking across the international border in Punjab.
  • Occupation of Kailash Range heights on the LAC in East Ladakh by highly motivated Indian special forces under adverse conditions totally surprised the PLA and changed the operational paradigm in India’s favour.

Battle of Imphal-Kohima
Very interestingly and proudly for the Indian Armed Forces and its troops, the battle of Imphal-Kohima during the Second World War (WWII) was voted in Britain as Britain’s most hard fought and significant battle in its entire history.[x] The Indian troops fought in horrendous jungle conditions of Nagaland, marked by vicious hand to hand fighting, when Japanese troops in large numbers crossed Burmese border. The Indian soldiers turned the tide against the Japanese army resulting eventually in their capitulation. “The victory was of a profound significance because it demonstrated categorically to the Japanese that they were not invincible. This was to be very important in preparing the entire Japanese nation to accept defeat,” Lyman said. “This was the last real battle of British Empire and the first battle of the new India.” The Indian troops “weren’t fighting for the British or the Raj but for a newly emerging and independent India and against the totalitarianism of Japan.”

Inspiring Quotes from Junior Indian Military Leaders. A few quotes of our junior leaders during battle, showcasing the Indian Armed Forces indomitable will to fight, and which will inspire generations to come.

  • . . . The eyes of the world are on us. The hopes and aspirations of our countrymen are based upon our efforts. We must not falter, we must not fail them . . .

To every man upon this earth Death Cometh soon or late
And how can man die better
Than facing fearful odds
For the ashes of his fathers
And the temples of his gods                                                                                     Brig Mohd Usman (P) MVC; Battle Order for Recapture of Jhangar

  • If death strikes before I prove my blood, I swear I’ll kill Death.Capt Manoj Pandey (P) PVC
  • No Sir, I will not abandon my tank. My gun is still working and I will get these bastards.                                                                                    2nd Lt. Arun Khetrapal (P) PVC
  • Either I will come back after hoisting the tricolor, or I will come back wrapped in it, but I will be back for sure – “YEH DIL MAANGE MORE”
  • Capt Vikram Batra (P) PVC

Recommendations
Indian Armed Forces should —

  • Develop and adopt a universal will-to-fight definition and model.
  • Modify and use the model for net-assessment of own and allied military forces and adversarial (China and Pakistan) forces. Obviously extended to specific missions/theatre of operations.
  • Integrate will to fight into doctrine and application manuals; holistic estimates of combat effectiveness in wargames and simulations of combat; and incorporate during net-assessments of adversaries and profiling of their leaders (specially China and Pakistan).

Conclusion
Improving understanding of ‘morale and will to fight’ might not be a panacea, after all war is not won by silver bullets, but it is a vital factor that is routinely overlooked or misunderstood. Nations and militaries across the world are paying increasing attention to behavioral science to know an adversarial nation’s and military’s will to fight and their leader’s mind. India and its professional armed forces must institutionalize/incorporate this pivotal aspect in their strategic and operational planning expeditiously.

[i] ‘What motivates the dogs of war?’, The Economist; Science and Technology, 05 Sep 2020 edition

[ii] ‘Disposition’- Soldiers and the units they form develop the disposition to fight or not fight, and to act or not to act, when fearing death. Disposition is essentially likelihood.

[iii] The event is widely covered and also paraphrased from ‘Like War: The weaponization of Social Media’ by PW Singer and Emerson T.Brooking, An Eamon Dolan Book, Houghton Mifflin Harcout, 2018.

[iv] ‘Net assessment’ is a complex and unconventional framework for the strategic analysis of military balances. It measures the hard power of nations in relation to each other, rather than each on its own terms. This kind of analysis, projected over the long-term, helps support more effective defence policies in conditions of military-strategic competition. Such a capability is urgently required today in view of the highly competitive nature of global geopolitics.

[v] ‘Delphi system of Management’ available widely online; one link – https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html

[vi] As a first step to understand will to fight, the RAND team undertook a literature review of more than 200 published works, reviewed U.S. and allied military doctrine, conducted 68 subject-matter expert (SME) interviews, and analyzed historical battles/campaigns/case-studies, war- gaming, and simulation.

[vii] Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War, Rand Corporation, 2019; Link- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10040.html

[viii] Paraphrased and adapted from numerous Think Tanks and online articles/papers, including ‘ARTIS International’ which is a global scientific research organization which focuses on behavioral dynamics affecting conflict. Its work is field orientated, and the fellows come from a wide variety of disciplines; also USAF Academy’s Warfighter Effectiveness Research Centre (werc), in Colorado

[ix] Famous Indian battles post-independence showcasing leadership and the troops indomitable courage, morale and ‘will to fight’ are listed: Battles of Rezang La, 18 November 1962; Assal Uttar, 8-10 September 1965; Tololing, 20 May – 13 June 1999; Nathu La and Cho La, 1967; Laugewala; Meghna Heli Bridge; Chawinda; Dograi (all four 1971); Special mention to Battle of Saragarhi, 12 September 1897.

[x] ‘Victory over Japanese at Kohima named Britain’s greatest battle’, in Reuters

Why FATF shouldn’t be fooled by 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed’s ‘conviction’

Ateet Sharma
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Why FATF shouldn’t be fooled by 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed’s ‘conviction’

26/11 Mumbai attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed and his aides being handed down a collective imprisonment of over 10 years in terror-financing cases is being viewed as yet another farcical exercise conducted by Pakistan to fool the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which has retained the deep state on its grey list since 2018. Not only was Saeed, a United Nations designated terrorist who is having a $10 million American bounty on his head, was escorted in and out of the Lahore Anti-Terrorism Court like a well-protected asset – and in a cavalcade of sophisticated SUVs instead of a prison van – the judge announcing the verdict made it clear that the sentence would run concurrently and the detention of the convicts during the trial period would be counted as “an undergone sentence”.

If this is the treatment a hardcore militant like Saeed, the founder of Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), is getting from the Pakistani authorities during his public appearances then one can easily imagine what a luxurious facility his detention centre would really be where he’s been “under detention” officially since July 2019. Five, 10 or 20 years – no terrorist would mind even spending his entire life enjoying such hospitality provided by the Imran Khan government.

The entire ‘sentence’ drama follows FATF’s decision of last month in which the global terror-financing watchdog had set February 2021 as the new deadline for Pakistan to work on some “very serious deficiencies” if it wants to avoid being blacklisted, the consequences of which Pakistan Prime Minister himself admits would be “destructive” like never before. Such ‘cosmetic’ efforts are also a big reason why Pakistan, a home to the largest number of listed terrorists internationally, is still failing terribly to convince the world about its seriousness to stop its land being used as a launch pad for global terror attacks.

Laskhar-e-Taiba AND Jamat-ud-Dawa
Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) leadership including Abdul Rehman Makki, brother in law of Hafiz Saeed along with Hafiz Abdul Salam, Professor Zafar Iqbal and Yahya Mujahid have featured in arrest dramas on terror-financing charges several times.

In its ‘Country Reports on Terrorism 2019’ released in June earlier this year, the US State Department had detailed how Pakistan remains a safe harbor for regionally focused terrorist groups.

“It allowed groups targeting Afghanistan, including the Afghan Taliban and affiliated HQN, as well as groups targeting India, including LeT and its affiliated front organizations, and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), to operate from its territory. It did not take action against other known terrorists such as JeM founder and UN-designated terrorist Masood Azhar and 2008 Mumbai attack “project manager” Sajid Mir, both of whom are believed to remain free in Pakistan,” the report mentioned.

It had also detailed how Hafiz Saeed is allowed to hoodwink the international agencies by frequently changing the names of Pakistan-based extremist organizations in an effort to avoid sanctions.

“Shortly after LeT being designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) on December 26, 2001, Saeed changed the group’s name to Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) and launched humanitarian projects to circumvent sanctions. LeT disseminates its message through JUD’s media outlets. Since the creation of JUD, LeT has repeatedly changed its name in an effort to avoid sanctions. Elements of LeT and Jaish-e-Muhammed (JeM) have combined with other groups like Hizbul Mujahideen to mount anti-India attacks,” the report states.

The game of Saeed’s “arrest. free. repeat” – as Pakistani journalist Taha Siddiqui had once pointed out – has continued since last few years, especially when the date of a FATF hearing is near. Even the Donald Trump administration frequently calling out and shaming Pakistan over funding terror hasn’t resulted in Pakistani deep state to sit back and reflect on the serious consequences of sponsoring cross-border terrorism in India.

“The two sides underlined the urgent need for Pakistan to take immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks, and to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of such attacks, including 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot. The US reiterated its support for the people and government of India in the fight against terrorism,” said a joint statement issued after the 17th meeting of the India-US Counter Terrorism Joint Working Group in September.

And, how did Pakistan react to it? It rejected the joint statement, calling the reference to Pakistan “unwarranted” and insisted that it is they who are “most affected” by cross-border terrorism! Some things will never change.

Jumping in joy since US President-elect Joe Biden’s victory, many Pakistanis also believe that the development will also bring a change of fortune for their country in the coming times.

Hopefully, Biden revisits Trump’s statement on Pakistan made on January 1, 2018: “They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more! The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools.”

(This article was first published in IndianNarrative.com)

Do They Breed Goddesses in Solcum Magna?

Shantanu Guha Ray
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Do They Breed Goddesses in Solcum Magna?

Let’s hear some voices first, else it will be drowned in the din of the virus pandemic, election results, coal mafia arrests, Bollywood stars and the endless wait for life-saving vaccines. This story is about India, more importantly, and Indian women.

Anju Chaudhary works as a part of a Self Help Group in Tapu village of Chopan block in UP’s Sonbhadra district which once made breaking headlines for its gold deposits. But for some strange reasons, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) retracted its claim and no one went for the hunt like Mackenna’s Gold.

Chaudhary received training on routine immunization and hand washing with soap last November under a UNICEF project, the idea was to mobilize families on routine immunization and hand washing with soap.

But pandemic COVID-19 hit her journey, routine immunization work got impacted in Uttar Pradesh. Chaudhary took online training on COVID-19 interventions and was told to spread the message wide and far. And then she, along with 24 women, reached 79 community members and prepared their community to respond correctly during COVID-19.

It was a tough call but she managed, she had support from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, which worked in tandem with the centre and state governments, and also UNICEF.

Now meet Sulekha Devi of Iama village from Fatehpur block of Gaya district that is known for Shiva temple and thousands and thousands of priests ready to fix your hotline with Lord Shiva.

A member of Jeevika group in 2013, Sulekha Devi received training on routine immunization and hand washing with soap constantly encouraged parents to get their child immunized. She trained virtually in May this year. Once Devi was trained, she learnt three migrant labourers from Kolkata and one migrant labourer from Ranchi have arrived into her village but were not willing to go to the quarantine center and wanted to live with their family. Devi led the charge, advising them to go to the quarantine center to save their family and village from any possibility of getting infected from COVID-19. She helped those four migrant labourers understand the importance of being isolated from the family in adequate facilities.

She did not make breaking headlines in a nation where news channels make and break heroes and heroines. She did her exceptional work silently, very silently.

And finally, meet this one.

Laxmi Kunjam, a Self Help Group member in Dantewada that is always in news for Maoist operations and gruesome deaths, got ventilation therapy through discussions and ensured safety through immunization for every child from diseases in her village. It was like clearing a medical examination.

Vaccinators traverse tough terrains to reach the far flung villages for immunization drive.

Kunjam’s home is in Koriras village of Katekalyan Block of Dantewada. The village has always been a tough one for the Rural Health Organizer (RHO) for immunization because many lactating women were reluctant to get their child immunized despite several rounds of counselling. There were also prevailing myths and misconceptions that a child gets fever and other health issues, after immunization. Laxmi turned the tide around. The Routine Immunization process was thoroughly internalized by Laxmi who conducted inter-personal communication with more than 80 mothers in the village and its surrounding villages. In total she brought back 6 such missing cases in Koriaras village and contacted every missing child in the village for immunization.

“We don’t want even a single child to be missed for immunization from our village. We will keep thinking on this line always, she said in an interview. Thanks to Laxmi, the entire village is free from the invalid myths and every child is immunized.

Mainly due to some great push by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and UNICEF, such women across India are pushing India’s immunization drive to greater heights.

But thanks to these women and the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s immunization drive, work is picking up in states such as Delhi, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Haryana. It is a fact that this delay was anticipated due to the Covid-19 pandemic. So on April 14, 2020, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), sent a letter to all principal secretaries, chief secretaries and administrators, stressing on the need to maintain non-Covid essential services.

“There were some gaps in coverages seen due to the pandemic due to restriction in movement of man and material to contain the spread. However, GOI came up with guidelines to ensure access to essential services in mid April that resulted in guiding the states on how to conduct vaccination sessions by taking due precautions. The states too worked on innovative ideas and the services have now been restored,” said a senior officer from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

The guidance note that went along with the letter to the state governments included a letter that said services must include “reproductive, maternal, new-born and child health, prevention and management of communicable diseases, treatment for chronic diseases to avoid complications, and addressing emergencies”.

But the challenge lies in implementation.

“Immunisation programmes should start on a priority basis and the government must analyse the risk versus benefits. We cannot afford another epidemic at the cost of one epidemic,” says Dr Naveen Thacker, executive director of International Pediatrics Association.

Dr Thacker says the lack of shortage of community workers, fear among healthcare workers over contracting COVID-19 are the biggest issues in India. Then there are issues over availability of PPEs, and resistance from village or panchayat heads in rural areas to allow HCWs to carry out the drives during the pandemic.

Now let’s consider this study by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 129 countries. It says disruption to inoculation services may put approximately 80 million babies at the risk of getting diseases such as diphtheria, measles and polio. So what is the way out for a billion plus India? If immunization services must be suspended, there must be an urgent catch-up in vaccinations as soon as possible.

But who will do it? It is almost like saying public smoking is banned but there are no cops for implementing the law.

Since its inception, the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) — one of the largest public health programmes in the world — has protected millions of children from vaccine-preventable diseases like diphtheria, pertussis, measles, pneumonia, diarrhoea, etc.

Vaccinators walk through difficult terrain to reach villages.

So how has the current suspension affected India? A quarter of Indian children still die of pneumonia and diarrhoea, yet one has to wait longer than earlier expected to ensure everyone has access to the life-saving vaccines.

And what is UNICEF doing?

It is working feverishly to declare vaccinators as first line responders. With protective gear and mobile technology, they could effectively sustain immunisation activities while practicing the mandated physical distancing.

Intersectoral collaborations will be critical to immunisation infrastructure — scientists, researchers, policymakers, economists, and civil society organisations and private organizations have to come together to design a roadmap to cover lost ground.

Thanks to some great push by UNICEF, these wonder women are collectively carving out a meticulous risk management, financing and executive plan to ensure access to the usual state-aided nutritional supplements to keep immunization levels high in the hinterland.

Educating the villagers about importance of immunization.

It is slowly showing results. For example, the problem of floating populations in slums, where many relocate periodically, means some areas may remain uncovered by Anganwadi workers. Again, the family survey is done only once a year in April, and this year even that could not be done. Pregnant women may get added to the list by anganwadi workers during quarterly or half-yearly surveys. Now if a pregnant woman in a densely-populated slum misses these surveys, she can access Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) aid if she visits the anganwadi and gets registered. India, the world’s largest democracy, recorded nearly 67,385 births in 2020 on New Year’s Day. The country, home to the highest number of unvaccinated children, has embarked upon an intensified journey to increase the vaccination coverage with mission Indradanush 2.0. It is here that the help of these superwomen come handy.

According to the Indian National Statistical Office (NSO) 97 percent of children between 0-5 years in the rural setting receive at least one vaccine, but when it comes to those children being fully immunised, the percentage drops to 58 per cent. Despite the government spending billions of dollars in programs like Mission Indra Dhanush, India’s immunisation rate remains one of the lowest in the world.

But the women who work against the odds in the countryside know healthcare for young children eventually determine the country’s  economic productivity, because vaccine-preventable diseases are known to cause stunting in childhood, which can lead to poor growth, poor adult health, and diminished learning capacity of the children. Their mornings are spent making calls and follow-ups to remind parents from financially disadvantaged backgrounds to get their child vaccinated, now that the immunisation programme has resumed across India.

So there is no let up in their works. The women know that in India, covid-related disruptions to the country’s immunisation and vaccination programmes has created a real risk of a measles outbreak — suggesting a nightmare scenario of overburdened public health systems trying to cope with simultaneous outbreaks of measles and Covid-19. Worse, hectic contact tracing, testing, and quarantining demands placed by the pandemic has made it almost impossible to find the time for the immunisation programme.

The World Health Organisation and UNICEF says only 20 percent of the children born in the present day will be fully vaccinated with all globally recommended vaccines by the time they turn five. The report says 80 million children in 68 countries are at risk of contracting diphtheria, polio and measles.

“COVID-19 has made previously routine vaccination a daunting challenge,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said in a report issued by WHO and UNICEF. “We must prevent a further deterioration in vaccine coverage and urgently resume vaccination programs before children’s lives are threatened by other diseases. We cannot trade one health crisis for another.” 

Approximately, 27 million infants and 29 million pregnant women are covered under India’s immunisation programme every year. Nine million sessions are conducted to deliver 12 preventive vaccines like the bivalent oral polio vaccine, inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), HPV, pentavalent, measles and rubella virus. These are given at the ages of 2, 4, 6,9 and 18 months. The role of the women health workers assumes paramount importance.

This year in April, however, a minimum of one lakh children did not get BCG vaccine for tuberculosis and two lakh children were not given the pentavalent and rotavirus vaccines that build immunity against meningitis, pneumonia, diphtheria and tetanus, says the Centre’s National Health Mission. The data further revealed that there was a 34 per cent drop in the number of measles vaccines across India between February and March. 

This is alarming, India has the fourth-highest number of measles cases in the world as per WHO.

Luigi d’Aquino, Chief of Health, UNICEF India said: “Vaccination is one of the most effective and cost-effective ways to protect children’s lives and futures, and for building healthier and safer communities. It is vital to ensure that immunization services continue to be available to every child, and that communities, families, and caregivers of children are continually aware of the importance of full immunization.”

But how has the set-up for the immunization process changed to facilitate COVID-19 precautions?

D’Aquino said there has been a great effort and focus on prevention and containment of COVID-19 but at the same time, the government has taken several steps to resume the Immunization services and prevent the community at large from the vaccine preventable diseases.

The UNICEF health boss said the Alternate Vaccine Delivery (AVD) system helped health workers during and after the lockdown in ensuring the availability of vaccines. “The AVD system is a very well established system in the country. The states have different vaccine delivery mechanisms depending on the topography of the state ranging from motorcycle/bikes, cycle, boats and by foot. During and after the lockdown; when the regular road transport mechanism was affected, the  AVD system was functional and it supported in vaccine delivery and resumption of Routine Immunization services. The AVDs are based on local need and depending upon local support and means for transport . There could be anywhere between 1 to 2 lakh persons or more working as AVDs.”

Due to COVID-19, there was a dip in the number of women or children who came to get vaccinated. There was a decline in the initial months of lockdown (April and May 2020), however recovery trends were seen in the subsequent months.  India was quick to respond to this unprecedented situation. Within weeks of lockdown, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines declaring public health services, including immunization, as an essential service. These new guidelines made the sessions fully functional across the country. And the results have been telling. Basic immunisation services received a huge boost and the vaccination drive reached pre-pandemic levels, said D’Aquino.

Let the band of women grow.

Nagrota: Four terrorists eliminated, AK 47s, hand grenades recovered

Sageer Ahmad
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Nagrota: Four terrorists eliminated, AK 47s, hand grenades recovered

Srinagar/ Nov 19: Four terrorists of the Jaish-e-Muhammad terror outfit were killed in Jammu on Thursday morning by the Indian security forces. These slain Jaish terrorists were planning a big attack in the coming days.

Inspector General of Police Jammu range Mukesh Singh said that a newly infiltrated group of four terrorists were killed at Ban Toll Plaza near Nagrota on the Srinagar-Jammu highway after a truck in which they were travelling was intercepted at a checkpoint. He said that the truck driver managed to flee from the spot while security forces recovered a large quantity of arms and ammunition that include 11 AK 47 riffles and 29 grenades.

AK 47 rifles and hand grenades recovered from the slain Jaish-e-Muhammad terrorists after the Nagrota encounter on Thursday. (Photo: News Intervention)

Addressing a press conference, IGP Jammu Mukesh Singh said that ever since the announcement for the District Development Council (DDC), police had been receiving inputs about a possible infiltration bid in Jammu. “We had kept our all teams deployed at naka points. There were intelligence inputs that militants may sneak in along with large quantity of arms and ammunition,” said Mukesh Singh, IGP Jammu.

He explained that at around 5 AM, a truck was stopped and when it was searched, the driver stepped out and fled. “During the search of the vehicle, the hiding militants opened a heavy volume of fire that was retaliated. The encounter lasted for three hours. Two policemen sustained injuries and both are now stable,” he said.

IGP Jammu also said that four unidentified terrorists were killed in the gunfight. “All the slain (terrorists) were carrying large quantity of arms and ammunition with them. This is the first in the past few years that such a large quantity of weapons were recovered from the slain terrorists —11 AK riffles, 29 grenades (apart from those lobbed at forces), three pistols, pouches, mobile phones and other incriminating material,” IGP Jammu said.

Asked about the motive of terrorists, the IGP said that given the quantity of weapons recovered from the slain terrorists, it seems that the group had infiltrated recently and were “planning something very big.” “But their plan stands foiled,” he said, adding that the operation was carried out jointly by police, CRPF and the army. “The sanitization operation is still on and identity and the affiliation of slain militants is being ascertained,” he said.

Azadi March in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

News Intervention Bureau
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Azadi March in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

Azadi March (march for freedom) was organized by the Jammu Kashmir National Awami Party and Jammu Kashmir National Students’ Federation on November 16, 2020 at Rawalakot, POK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir). This protest march was against the Pakistani occupation of Kashmir. Azadi March started from the College Grounds in Rawalakot and culminated into a large assembly at the Kachehri Chowk, Rawalakot. Pakistan had forcibly captured Gilgit-Baltistan on Nov 16, 1947. The Rawalakot Azadi march was in remembrance of this day. Pakistan has been suppressing demands for freedom in POK. But now the Kashmiris across POK and Gilgit-Baltistan are protesting to attain freedom from Pakistan.

Click on the YouTube link to watch our news report.

Imran’s ‘Naya’ Pakistan: Tall Claims, Lesser Gains

Nilesh Kunwar
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Imran’s ‘Naya’ Pakistan: Tall Claims, Lesser Gains

“Pakistan is a wealthy country. The only misfortune is that there has been a lack of good management,” Imran Khan, Prime Minister, Pakistan October 10, 2018

The good news is that Pakistan is actively considering to return the $ 2 billion loan taken from Saudi Arabia, which is due next month; the bad news is that it may once again resort to its novel scheme of ‘borrowing from Paul to repay Peter’ by seeking $ 2 billion from China to repay this loan. The good news is that it will face no problems getting this loan; the bad news for the people of Pakistan is that Islamabad isn’t disclosing whether the interest on this loan, which it takes from China, will be at concessional or commercial rates.

The good news is that Pakistan’s Executive Committee of National Economic Council (ECNEC) has approved the $6.8 billion Pakistan Railways Main Line [ML] -1 project, which is part of the ambitious China Pakistan Economic Corridor [CPEC]. But the bad news is that for this Islamabad will have to take a massive loan from Beijing for a whopping 90 per cent of the project’s cost. The good news is that Pakistan has requested this loan to be disbursed with 1% interest; the bad news is that while Beijing hasn’t yet confirmed its approval, it has informally sent across feelers that the interest rate could be higher.

The good news is that due to the poor financial health of Pakistan Railways, ECNEC will book this loan against both the federal government and railways; the bad news as per Pakistan Railways’ own admission is that the ML-1 project is coming at a time when the railways doesn’t even have the money to pay salaries and pensions to its employees, unless the government bails it out through a massive cash infusion.

The good news is that in order to avoid overstressing the country’s already critically- fragile economy and to comply with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) directives, Islamabad has  wisely decided to go ahead with the ML-1 project in a phased manner- In ‘package 1’ (construction of a 527-km- long track from Peshawar to Rawalpindi and onwards till Lahore),it will incur an expenditure of $ 2.4 billion; the bad news is that with the Railway Minister making certain changes, the cost of this package has already shot up to $ 2.73 billion even before it has commenced!

The good news is that package 1 is scheduled to commence in January 2021 and will be completed by December 2014 but the bad news is that due to procedural delays in finalising the terms and conditions of the loan as well as the gestation time required for shortlisting of contractors and mustering the labour force, package 1 may not take off as scheduled and the resultant delay will only lead to further escalation in its overall cost. 

The good news is that since the people of Pakistan were told that CPEC projects would generate employment, there were expectations that the $6.8 billion ML-1 project ,which also includes dualisation and upgradation of the 1,872-km- long railway track from Peshawar to Karachi, would generate mass employment. The bad news is that as per the agreement of this project signed between Beijing and Islamabad, all engineering procurement and construction- related aspects would be executed by Chinese contractors!

The good news is that the State Bank of Pakistan has diligently utilised the entire $ 3 billion additional trade finance facility available under the 2011 ‘China-Pakistan currency swap’ arrangement for the last financial year to repay foreign debt and thereby preserve its meagre foreign currency reserves. The bad news is that since Islamabad wouldn’t be in a financial position to return this money to Beijing by May next year, when this facility expires, it will be seeking a three year ‘rollover’ of this facility.

The good news is that Beijing is likely to extend this facility at Islamabad’s request; the bad news is that this currency-swap arrangement isn’t interest free- in the last fiscal year alone, Pakistan paid a princely sum of Rs 20.5 billion only as interest to China on the $3 billion borrowed under additional trade finance facility!

The good news broken by Pakistan’s Special Secretary and spokesperson of Finance Department Kamran Ali Afzal is that the $6 billion worth Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of International Monetary Fund (IMF) that was signed in July 2019 is propelling growth in the industrial sector. The bad news is that since January, this programme remains suspended, as its second quarterly review has not been completed due to Islamabad’s failure to abide by the “agreement (with IMF) on policies and reforms needed to complete the second review of the authorities.”

The good news is that Imran Khan’s government is going after economic offenders without exception, and hasn’t even spared a former Prime Minister; the bad news-despite the existence of documentary evidence of a retired army General having illegally- amassed millions of in assets and cash abroad, he has not even been investigated; au contraire, he heads the $ 62 billion CPEC project!

The good news is that Imran Khan is speaking up against Islamophobia as well as about Muslims in Palestine and Kashmir; the bad news is that the international community isn’t taking him seriously because US Acting Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia, Alice Wells has exposed his bluff. After his tedious discourse during the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, Ms Wells stumped Khan by saying “I would like to see the same level of concern expressed about Muslims also, who are being detained in Western China, literally in concentration-like conditions. And so being concerned about the human rights of Muslims does extend more broadly than Kashmir, and you’ve seen the administration very involved here during the UN General Assembly and trying to shine a light on the horrific conditions that continue to exist for Muslims throughout China.”

The good news is that immediately after coming to office, Khan identified indiscriminate borrowing by previous governments as the sole reason for Pakistan’s financial woes; but the bad news is that during his first year in office, the federal government borrowed $ 16 billion– the largest amount ever in the country’s history! The good news is that he allayed public apprehensions on this issue by asking the people of Pakistan to “stay strong,” and assuring them that it was just a temporary phase, promised that he would steer the country out of economic morasses in just six months. The sad news is that even after two years, there’s no relief in sight!

Tailpiece: The good news is that in October 2018, Khan told his people that “Nations face (economic) ups and downs, go through difficult times, and I can assure you that in six months’ time, you will look back and say this was nothing.” But the sad news is that today, when the people of Pakistan look back, they don’t say “this was nothing”– instead they just keep mum and say nothing! So, welcome to ‘master- illusionist’ Imran Khan’s “Naya Pakistan!”

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News Intervention is the new age digital media platform that has news analysis, opinion pieces, news briefs, news videos and documentaries.
News Intervention raises all those issues that may have been overlooked by big media houses or have been deliberately buried to serve vested interests. We firmly believe that each life matters and every individual regardless of religion, nationality, race, caste or creed must have the right to live life with dignity.

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