Tehran has issued a stern warning amid heightened tensions in Iran-Israel conflict, cautioning against any retaliation following Tehran’s recent drone and missile attacks. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi emphasized that any reckless behavior from Israel or its supporters would result in a decisive and more forceful response from Iran.

“If the Zionist regime [Israel] or its supporters demonstrate reckless behaviour, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response,” Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said in a statement on Sunday.

Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s military chief, echoed this sentiment, stating that a much larger retaliation awaits Israel if it chooses to retaliate against Iran.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iranian retaliation was conveyed directly to the United States. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Amir Abdollahian, has revealed that Tehran had informed the US of the planned attack 72 hours in advance, emphasizing that the strikes were intended to be limited and for self-defense. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander, Hossein Salami, warned of retaliation against any Israeli attacks on Iranian interests, officials, or citizens, asserting that Iran would respond from its own territory.

He said, “From now on, whenever Israel attacks Iranian interests… we will attack from Iran.”

Iran avoided escalation

This development marks a significant shift in Iran’s approach, as it has traditionally avoided direct conflict with Israel and preferred to act through proxies in other regions. However, recent events, including an Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, put an obligation on Iran to respond. Evidently, reports prior to the attacks mentioned that Iran has conveyed to US that it’s attack would be Iran’s attempt to convey its attack as controlled and non-escalatory underscores its desire to avoid further tensions.

While Iran has invoked Article 51 of the United Nations Charter seeking its right to retaliate, the intensity of condemnation towards Iran’s attack contrasts with previous Israeli actions in Syria. Besides, Israel has indicated its readiness to take appropriate action at the appropriate time. Iran’s warning serves as a clear message to the West to prevent escalation, as any failure to do so could lead to a dangerous cycle of retaliation with potentially grave and uncontrolled consequences.

Countries including India, Russia, France, Poland and the UK have warned their citizens against travelling to Israel, amid threats of an Iranian attack in response to a strike this month on its consulate in Damascus. This comes amid reports that Iran will likely launch a direct attack on Israel within the next 48 hours.

Hezbollah,a proxy of Iran in Lebanon launched a barrage of rockets on the northern part of Israel yesterday (12 April), claiming it to be the retaliatory strike on Israeli artillery positions in response to the recent airstrikes on southern Lebanese villages and civilian homes.

Tensions have been brewing in the Middle East for over 180 days, since the Hamas launched a massacring intrusion in Israel leading to a full-scale US backed counter offensive by the latter, marking the biggest Israeli attack in Gaza to date. After the latest Israeli strikes in Syria, targeting Iranian embassy, the attack on Israel is imminent. US, which has been one of the most crucial factors for the middle east fiasco, has confirmed that Iran will attack Israel to the North or east by upcoming 24 hours. Going by Joe Biden’s word, the attack will be ‘sooner than later‘. Based on its intel, US has sent a warship in the region to protect Israel.

US advisory to it’s officials confirm the possibility of retaliation

This seems more happening as before opening up on intelligence, US had issued an advisory to it’s officials in Israel restricting them from travelling outside Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other major cities. Same happened during the recent Russian attack, when US issued advisory to it’s citizens sometime before the terrorist attack on the concert hall in Moscow. Evidently, the war has opened a Pandora’s box of events that has made the situation even more delicate each time. US’ interference in the region has only exacerbated the situation as it’s animosity with Iran made this one-on-one war between Israel and Hamas, a multifaceted one. However, Iran earlier has attacked Israeli and US assets through it’s proxies like Hezbollah, Houthis and IRI. But now, leave aside Iran backed militias, an Israeli attack on Iranian embassy in Syria has opened gateway for a direct Iranian involvement.

US creates confusion

US has, since the embassy attack, employed the tactic of ‘carrot and stick’ with on one hand, it asked countries like China to press Iran to refrain from taking any action while on the other, it gave a stern warning to Iran that it will support Israel in case it makes an attack. President Joe Biden has clearly stated that Israel can rely on the ‘Iron-clad’ backing of United States. But as history tells us, US can’t be relied upon such situations. Instead of condemning and setting Israel responsible for the embassy attack, US has committed to support it only because to initiate a direct conflict between Israel and Iran and weaken Iran in the process. It did the same with Ukraine. At first, it threatened Russia and when the latter reacted, US left Ukraine alone in the war with just weaponry and no military support.

Nevertheless, seeing the heightened tensions, India, France, Poland and Russia have also issued advisory to it’s citizens asking them not to travel to Israel or Iran.

Gulf waking up to reality

Reportedly, Iran has conveyed to the US that if it gets involved, Iran would attack it’s troops and bases in the region. And now Gulf countries have warned US to not use its bases on their soil for retaliation to Iranian response to Israel. Clearly countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and others are changing their mindset about Iran as they know regional peace can only be achieved with cooperation nit coercion. They are also moving to prevent US warplanes from flying over their airspace in the event the US conducts a retaliatory strike on Iran.

Certainly, lots of diplomacy is being played on and off the table by both Iran and US. Amidst the possibility of attack, even after 12 days of Iranian embassy fiasco, Iran has succeeded to maintain a strategic domination. While the attack is bound to happen, Iran’s fallout containment approach and stern warning leave large space of speculations open. Whatsoever, the attack is bound to happen, it is just the intensity of the attack and the subsequent reaction of Israel, that would decide the course of the conflict , which for now, seems to start spill over. On the contrary, the one who is providing oxygen to the conflict is only to benefit by maintaining it’s hegemony over Iran, the biggest contender of US in middle East.