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2022: Baloch freedom fighters killed 636 Pak Army soldiers in 455 attacks

The Balochistan Liberation Front, Baloch Liberation Army, Baloch Nationalist Army and Baloch Republican Guard have released their annual report of attacks on the occupying state forces in 2022, according to which a total of 455 attacks were carried out on the occupying Pakistani soldiers, in which more than 636 personnel were killed and those injured surpassed 279.

The report clearly states that “the internally devastated Pakistan and the country’s army, which is on the verge of collapse in the world market, have been attacked by Baloch freedom fighters throughout the year and more than 600 soldiers have been killed”.

Some of the major attacks of 2022 highlighted in the report, includes Fidai attacks on Nushki and Panjgur camps, capture of the Pakistani post in Sabdan Dasht, killing those personnel present in the post and seizing their weapons and other equipments. But the most revered Sarmachar of the year was Shari Baloch, the young mother who sacrificed her life for the freedom of her motherland, Balochistan.

The report hubristically mentions the sacrifices being made by Sarmachars and reminds that the revolutionaries armed with awareness in the streets including the mountains of occupied Balochistan have set out to secure the future of the generations of Baloch by repelling the enemy with a gun and they have been successfully defeating the enemy who are determined to  destroy the bright future of Baloch.

The core reason for establishment of Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF),Baloch Liberation Army, Baloch Nationalist Army and Baloch Republican Guard has always been to reinstate the separate Baloch identity and regain motherland’s sovereignty from the occupier Pakistan. Since its establishment, along with armed struggle, they began to create political and ideological awareness about the Baloch nation and has endeavored to bring Baloch people from all walks of life together to join the armed struggle, so that the masses consciously, politically and ideologically get involved in the resistance. Because, the struggle for independence is impossible without the participation of masses.

Why investment in Land is good?

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Mark Twain very famously remarked once – “Buy land, they are not making it anymore”. This seems to have been the mantra for all High Net worth Individuals (HNI) of India.

If one looks through the portfolio of many wealthy family offices, land is an integral part of it. They seem to have the knack of timing it right; buy when other asset classes are rising and sell when the policy framework is in favour. In essence, the performance of land as an asset class is closely tied to the policies of the government. 

Besides keeping a close watch on the policy framework of urban development, three other factors have to be borne in mind while scaling your investment into land. 

Risk: What are the chances of the asset value depreciating OR unable to beat inflation/ interest rate on a 3 year horizon?

Terms & Returns: Whether the investment would grow @ (+) 15% year on year?

Liquidity:  How easy would it be to profitably exit, in parts or in whole? 

Most land investors are convinced that the land is less volatile compared to mutual funds, stocks, equities, investment trusts, etc. Over the past few weeks, the entire country is witness to what has happened in the stock market valuations on the Adani industries issue. It would be a good idea to share the seven reasons why most high net-worth individuals prefer to invest in land vs. built up spaces and buildings.

Reason # 01: Taken a long term view, land is an evergreen, ever-growing asset. Brick & mortar assets like buildings (mall space/office blocks) deteriorate with time, whereas land appreciates. Remember, some studies confirm that the value of any commercial building becomes ‘zero’ in 27 years. Even when the building is useless & demolished, what is left behind is LAND.

Reason # 02: Land is an asset from day one. It has very little lead time to mature from purchase to progress. For e.g. If you are an early bird buyer for a residential or commercial property, it typically takes 3-5 years for your asset to be registered in your name, and to draw returns from them. One keeps investing money & time for 3-5 years, without returns. Land can be registered immediately, and can start delivering returns.

Reason # 03: Land is one asset which affords the most flexible options, within the real estate products.  You can choose to buy any size & dimension, any value, anytime. Besides, land can be put to multiple use during the period of ownership. Let me elaborate. Agricultural land if invested into; can be used for farming. Post zoning, land use can be changed and commercially used. Anything build on it can be redeveloped, for e.g. the same piece of land could end up being used as warehouse premise, commercial, residential, etc.

Reason # 04: Land affords simple investment management. Once bought, it doesn’t incur high costs compared to built-up products. It is most likely that the land bought is self sufficient in deriving the maintenance cost, whereas, the other products attract a continually incremental maintenance.

Reason # 05:  Considering India’s population & the Prime Minister’s vision of a $5 Trillion economy, Indian real estate is projected to be a $1 trillion business opportunity. Also, we would double the urban centres; 60% of India’s population would live in cities by 2050. Hence, land as a commodity would remain in demand. There is an acute demand for finished products, which would have to be constructed on land.  Hence, investments in land are bound to grow, provided the buying strategy is right. For e.g: Delhi as a city state is forecasted to house a population of 3.1 crores by the end of this decade. That necessitates the entire state of Delhi to be declared an urban area and both GDA policy as well as land-pooling to create a supply surge. Hence, invest in land today, rather than wait for appreciation at a much later date; at much lower returns.

Reason # 06: Assuming that India averages a growth rate upwards of 6.5% through the decade ahead & disposable incomes being high, aspiration of green living, bigger houses, better amenities, affordable luxuries, etc., would take over. Those can be achieved on bigger land chunks developed as clusters of luxury living. Hence, investing into GDA villages makes sense today. 

Reason # 07: Land affords the “right balance in your real estate portfolio”. While investing in real estate, one needs to have a right product mix to hedge the risk, with one or two products which are low on risk and high on returns. That is what land promises to be. 

Having said the above, we also advise our clients to exercise the right amount of caution and source expertise while buying land. Seek out experts rather than take the ‘gut-feel-approach’. Analyze-understand-replicate success stories in land as a portfolio rather than try to re-write a success story. Remember, all leading developers in our country grew at this  scorching pace on valuations, using land as the growth engine.

Paki regime fires at the family of a missing Baloch youth

The Paki regime fired several shots near a protest demonstration on CPEC road Hoshaap, where relatives of missing student Zaman Baloch had blocked the highway against Zaman’s enforced disappearance.The family had staged a protest for their abducted and missing son. Recently the spokesman of the Baloch Solidarity Committee (Karachi) had said in a statement that the family of Zaman Baloch son of Sephan, who was forcibly disappeared from Turbat, had held a press conference. He had said that his case was being brought to the media because institutions including the security agencies and the judiciary have turned a blind eye to his son’s abduction. Sephan’s son Zaman was a resident of Balgatar area of Kech and was forcibly disappeared from Turbat Bazar on Friday, February 10, 2023. The family of Zaman have been inconsolable ever since his abduction.

The family members protesting and demanding the safe release of Zaman Baloch at Hoshab on the CPEC route (Photo: News Intervention)

Interpreting his words, the spokesman had further said that this is not the first time that Zaman was forcibly disappeared, but before this, Zaman Baloch and his brother Majid Baloch were forcibly disappeared by the security agencies on 9 June 2020. He was released after being tortured for six months. Zaman Baloch is once again extrajudicially forcibly disappeared by the Paki regime and other security personnel. Despite the passage of a certain period, the family has no clue about their abducted son.The Pakistani Army continues its genocide across occupied Balochistan wherein several innocent Baloch youth are abducted and killed in cold blood

Pakistan has been abducting and killing Baloch over the last several years. Baloch Human Rights organizations have records of more than 30,000 innocent Baloch who have been abducted by the Pakistani security forces and are now “Missing”. Another 10,000 Baloch have been killed and dumped by the Pakistan Army in various operations conducted across occupied Balochistan.

Video of Paki regime firing at the family of Zaman Baloch who were protesting his abduction by the Paki regime

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now

The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center can be found in a location as obscure as its name—down what was once a country lane in rural Panama City, a now-booming resort city in the southwestern panhandle of Florida, 70 miles south of the Alabama border. The center’s complex is as nondescript as its location—a drab concrete post-World War II structure that has the look of a vocational high school on the west side of Chicago. A coin-operated laundromat and a dance school are across what is now a four-lane road.

The center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as well as the bad, like blowing up foreign oil rigs, fouling intake valves for undersea power plants, destroying locks on crucial shipping canals. The Panama City center, which boasts the second largest indoor pool in America, was the perfect place to recruit the best, and most taciturn, graduates of the diving school who successfully did last summer what they had been authorized to do 260 feet under the surface of the Baltic Sea.

Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.

Two of the pipelines, which were known collectively as Nord Stream 1, had been providing Germany and much of Western Europe with cheap Russian natural gas for more than a decade. A second pair of pipelines, called Nord Stream 2, had been built but were not yet operational. Now, with Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border and the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 looming, President Joseph Biden saw the pipelines as a vehicle for Vladimir Putin to weaponize natural gas for his political and territorial ambitions.

Asked for comment, Adrienne Watson, a White House spokesperson, said in an email, “This is false and complete fiction.” Tammy Thorp, a spokesperson for the Central Intelligence Agency, similarly wrote: “This claim is completely and utterly false.”

Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.

There was a vital bureaucratic reason for relying on the graduates of the center’s hardcore diving school in Panama City. The divers were Navy only, and not members of America’s Special Operations Command, whose covert operations must be reported to Congress and briefed in advance to the Senate and House leadership—the so-called Gang of Eight. The Biden Administration was doing everything possible to avoid leaks as the planning took place late in 2021 and into the first months of 2022.

President Biden and his foreign policy team—National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy—had been vocal and consistent in their hostility to the two pipelines, which ran side by side for 750 miles under the Baltic Sea from two different ports in northeastern Russia near the Estonian border, passing close to the Danish island of Bornholm before ending in northern Germany.

The direct route, which bypassed any need to transit Ukraine, had been a boon for the German economy, which enjoyed an abundance of cheap Russian natural gas—enough to run its factories and heat its homes while enabling German distributors to sell excess gas, at a profit, throughout Western Europe. Action that could be traced to the administration would violate US promises to minimize direct conflict with Russia. Secrecy was essential.

From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG, was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.

America’s political fears were real: Putin would now have an additional and much-needed major source of income, and Germany and the rest of Western Europe would become addicted to low-cost natural gas supplied by Russia—while diminishing European reliance on America. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Many Germans saw Nord Stream 1 as part of the deliverance of former Chancellor Willy Brandt’s famed Ostpolitik theory, which would enable postwar Germany to rehabilitate itself and other European nations destroyed in World War II by, among other initiatives, utilizing cheap Russian gas to fuel a prosperous Western European market and trading economy.

Nord Stream 1 was dangerous enough, in the view of NATO and Washington, but Nord Stream 2, whose construction was completed in September of 2021, would, if approved by German regulators, double the amount of cheap gas that would be available to Germany and Western Europe. The second pipeline also would provide enough gas for more than 50 percent of Germany’s annual consumption. Tensions were constantly escalating between Russia and NATO, backed by the aggressive foreign policy of the Biden Administration.

Opposition to Nord Stream 2 flared on the eve of the Biden inauguration in January 2021, when Senate Republicans, led by Ted Cruz of Texas, repeatedly raised the political threat of cheap Russian natural gas during the confirmation hearing of Blinken as Secretary of State. By then a unified Senate had successfully passed a law that, as Cruz told Blinken, “halted [the pipeline] in its tracks.” There would be enormous political and economic pressure from the German government, then headed by Angela Merkel, to get the second pipeline online.

Would Biden stand up to the Germans? Blinken said yes, but added that he had not discussed the specifics of the incoming President’s views. “I know his strong conviction that this is a bad idea, the Nord Stream 2,” he said. “I know that he would have us use every persuasive tool that we have to convince our friends and partners, including Germany, not to move forward with it.”

A few months later, as the construction of the second pipeline neared completion, Biden blinked. That May, in a stunning turnaround, the administration waived sanctions against Nord Stream AG, with a State Department official conceding that trying to stop the pipeline through sanctions and diplomacy had “always been a long shot.” Behind the scenes, administration officials reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by then facing a threat of Russian invasion, not to criticize the move.

There were immediate consequences. Senate Republicans, led by Cruz, announced an immediate blockade of all of Biden’s foreign policy nominees and delayed passage of the annual defense bill for months, deep into the fall. Politico later depicted Biden’s turnabout on the second Russian pipeline as “the one decision, arguably more than the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, that has imperiled Biden’s agenda.” 

The administration was floundering, despite getting a reprieve on the crisis in mid-November, when Germany’s energy regulators suspended approval of the second Nord Stream pipeline. Natural gas prices surged 8% within days, amid growing fears in Germany and Europe that the pipeline suspension and the growing possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine would lead to a very much unwanted cold winter. It was not clear to Washington just where Olaf Scholz, Germany’s newly appointed chancellor, stood. Months earlier, after the fall of Afghanistan, Scholtz had publicly endorsed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a more autonomous European foreign policy in a speech in Prague—clearly suggesting less reliance on Washington and its mercurial actions.

Throughout all of this, Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine, and by the end of December more than 100,000 soldiers were in position to strike from Belarus and Crimea. Alarm was growing in Washington, including an assessment from Blinken that those troop numbers could be “doubled in short order.”

The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia.

It was at this unsettled moment that Biden authorized Jake Sullivan to bring together an interagency group to come up with a plan. 

All options were to be on the table. But only one would emerge.

PLANNING

In December of 2021, two months before the first Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Jake Sullivan convened a meeting of a newly formed task force—men and women from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA, and the State and Treasury Departments—and asked for recommendations about how to respond to Putin’s impending invasion.

It would be the first of a series of top-secret meetings, in a secure room on a top floor of the Old Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). There was the usual back and forth chatter that eventually led to a crucial preliminary question: Would the recommendation forwarded by the group to the President be reversible—such as another layer of sanctions and currency restrictions—or irreversible—that is, kinetic actions, which could not be undone?

What became clear to participants, according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.

THE PLAYERS Left to right: Victoria Nuland, Anthony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan.

Over the next several meetings, the participants debated options for an attack. The Navy proposed using a newly commissioned submarine to assault the pipeline directly. The Air Force discussed dropping bombs with delayed fuses that could be set off remotely. The CIA argued that whatever was done, it would have to be covert. Everyone involved understood the stakes. “This is not kiddie stuff,” the source said. If the attack were traceable to the United States, “It’s an act of war.”

At the time, the CIA was directed by William Burns, a mild-mannered former ambassador to Russia who had served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama Administration. Burns quickly authorized an Agency working group whose ad hoc members included—by chance—someone who was familiar with the capabilities of the Navy’s deep-sea divers in Panama City. Over the next few weeks, members of the CIA’s working group began to craft a plan for a covert operation that would use deep-sea divers to trigger an explosion along the pipeline.

Something like this had been done before. In 1971, the American intelligence community learned from still undisclosed sources that two important units of the Russian Navy were communicating via an undersea cable buried in the Sea of Okhotsk, on Russia’s Far East Coast. The cable linked a regional Navy command to the mainland headquarters at Vladivostok.

A hand-picked team of Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency operatives was assembled somewhere in the Washington area, under deep cover, and worked out a plan, using Navy divers, modified submarines and a deep-submarine rescue vehicle, that succeeded, after much trial and error, in locating the Russian cable. The divers planted a sophisticated listening device on the cable that successfully intercepted the Russian traffic and recorded it on a taping system.

The NSA learned that senior Russian navy officers, convinced of the security of their communication link, chatted away with their peers without encryption. The recording device and its tape had to be replaced monthly and the project rolled on merrily for a decade until it was compromised by a forty-four-year-old civilian NSA technician named Ronald Pelton who was fluent in Russian. Pelton was betrayed by a Russian defector in 1985 and sentenced to prison. He was paid just $5,000 by the Russians for his revelations about the operation, along with $35,000 for other Russian operational data he provided that was never made public.

That underwater success, codenamed Ivy Bells, was innovative and risky, and produced invaluable intelligence about the Russian Navy’s intentions and planning.

Still, the interagency group was initially skeptical of the CIA’s enthusiasm for a covert deep-sea attack. There were too many unanswered questions. The waters of the Baltic Sea were heavily patrolled by the Russian navy, and there were no oil rigs that could be used as cover for a diving operation. Would the divers have to go to Estonia, right across the border from Russia’s natural gas loading docks, to train for the mission? “It would be a goat fuck,” the Agency was told.

Throughout “all of this scheming,” the source said, “some working guys in the CIA and the State Department were saying, ‘Don’t do this. It’s stupid and will be a political nightmare if it comes out.’”

Nevertheless, in early 2022, the CIA working group reported back to Sullivan’s interagency group: “We have a way to blow up the pipelines.”

What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, “If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. “I want to be very clear to you today,” she said in response to a question. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack.

“It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,” the source said. “The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.”

Biden’s and Nuland’s indiscretion, if that is what it was, might have frustrated some of the planners. But it also created an opportunity. According to the source, some of the senior officials of the CIA determined that blowing up the pipeline “no longer could be considered a covert option because the President just announced that we knew how to do it.”

The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, “There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.”

The Agency working group members had no direct contact with the White House, and were eager to find out if the President meant what he’d said—that is, if the mission was now a go. The source recalled, “Bill Burns comes back and says, ‘Do it.’”

“The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow water a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island . . .”

THE OPERATION 

Norway was the perfect place to base the mission.

In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence inside Norway, whose western border runs 1,400 miles along the north Atlantic Ocean and merges above the Arctic Circle with Russia. The Pentagon has created high paying jobs and contracts, amid some local controversy, by investing hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade and expand American Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway. The new works included, most importantly, an advanced synthetic aperture radar far up north that was capable of penetrating deep into Russia and came online just as the American intelligence community lost access to a series of long-range listening sites inside China.

A newly refurbished American submarine base, which had been under construction for years, had become operational and more American submarines were now able to work closely with their Norwegian colleagues to monitor and spy on a major Russian nuclear redoubt 250 miles to the east, on the Kola Peninsula. America also has vastly expanded a Norwegian air base in the north and delivered to the Norwegian air force a fleet of Boeing-built P8 Poseidon patrol planes to bolster its long-range spying on all things Russia.

In return, the Norwegian government angered liberals and some moderates in its parliament last November by passing the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA). Under the new deal, the U.S. legal system would have jurisdiction in certain “agreed areas” in the North over American soldiers accused of crimes off base, as well as over those Norwegian citizens accused or suspected of interfering with the work at the base.

Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the supreme commander of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. “He is the glove that fits the American hand,” the source said.

Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. “They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,” the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)

Sometime in March, a few members of the team flew to Norway to meet with the Norwegian Secret Service and Navy. One of the key questions was where exactly in the Baltic Sea was the best place to plant the explosives. Nord Stream 1 and 2, each with two sets of pipelines, were separated much of the way by little more than a mile as they made their run to the port of Greifswald in the far northeast of Germany.

The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow waters of the Baltic sea a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island. The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. It would be tedious, time consuming and dangerous work, but the waters off Bornholm had another advantage: there were no major tidal currents, which would have made the task of diving much more difficult.

After a bit of research, the Americans were all in.

At this point, the Navy’s obscure deep-diving group in Panama City once again came into play. The deep-sea schools at Panama City, whose trainees participated in Ivy Bells, are seen as an unwanted backwater by the elite graduates of the Naval Academy in Annapolis, who typically seek the glory of being assigned as a Seal, fighter pilot, or submariner. If one must become a “Black Shoe”—that is, a member of the less desirable surface ship command—there is always at least duty on a destroyer, cruiser or amphibious ship. The least glamorous of all is mine warfare. Its divers never appear in Hollywood movies, or on the cover of popular magazines.

“The best divers with deep diving qualifications are a tight community, and only the very best are recruited for the operation and told to be prepared to be summoned to the CIA in Washington,” the source said.

The Norwegians and Americans had a location and the operatives, but there was another concern: any unusual underwater activity in the waters off Bornholm might draw the attention of the Swedish or Danish navies, which could report it.  

Denmark had also been one of the original NATO signatories and was known in the intelligence community for its special ties to the United Kingdom. Sweden had applied for membership into NATO, and had demonstrated its great skill in managing its underwater sound and magnetic sensor systems that successfully tracked Russian submarines that would occasionally show up in remote waters of the Swedish archipelago and be forced to the surface.

The Norwegians joined the Americans in insisting that some senior officials in Denmark and Sweden had to be briefed in general terms about possible diving activity in the area. In that way, someone higher up could intervene and keep a report out of the chain of command, thus insulating the pipeline operation. “What they were told and what they knew were purposely different,” the source told me. (The Norwegian embassy, asked to comment on this story, did not respond.)

The Norwegians were key to solving other hurdles. The Russian navy was known to possess surveillance technology capable of spotting, and triggering, underwater mines. The American explosive devices needed to be camouflaged in a way that would make them appear to the Russian system as part of the natural background—something that required adapting to the specific salinity of the water. The Norwegians had a fix.

The Norwegians also had a solution to the crucial question of when the operation should take place. Every June, for the past 21 years, the American Sixth Fleet, whose flagship is based in Gaeta, Italy, south of Rome, has sponsored a major NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea involving scores of allied ships throughout the region. The current exercise, held in June, would be known as Baltic Operations 22, or BALTOPS 22. The Norwegians proposed this would be the ideal cover to plant the mines.

The Americans provided one vital element: they convinced the Sixth Fleet planners to add a research and development exercise to the program. The exercise, as made public by the Navy, involved the Sixth Fleet in collaboration with the Navy’s “research and warfare centers.” The at-sea event would be held off the coast of Bornholm Island and involve NATO teams of divers planting mines, with competing teams using the latest underwater technology to find and destroy them.

It was both a useful exercise and ingenious cover. The Panama City boys would do their thing and the C4 explosives would be in place by the end of BALTOPS22, with a 48-hour timer attached. All of the Americans and Norwegians would be long gone by the first explosion. 

The days were counting down. “The clock was ticking, and we were nearing mission accomplished,” the source said.

And then: Washington had second thoughts. The bombs would still be planted during BALTOPS, but the White House worried that a two-day window for their detonation would be too close to the end of the exercise, and it would be obvious that America had been involved.

Instead, the White House had a new request: “Can the guys in the field come up with some way to blow the pipelines later on command?”

Some members of the planning team were angered and frustrated by the President’s seeming indecision. The Panama City divers had repeatedly practiced planting the C4 on pipelines, as they would during BALTOPS, but now the team in Norway had to come up with a way to give Biden what he wanted—the ability to issue a successful execution order at a time of his choosing.  

Being tasked with an arbitrary, last-minute change was something the CIA was accustomed to managing. But it also renewed the concerns some shared over the necessity, and legality, of the entire operation.

The President’s secret orders also evoked the CIA’s dilemma in the Vietnam War days, when President Johnson, confronted by growing anti-Vietnam War sentiment, ordered the Agency to violate its charter—which specifically barred it from operating inside America—by spying on antiwar leaders to determine whether they were being controlled by Communist Russia.

The agency ultimately acquiesced, and throughout the 1970s it became clear just how far it had been willing to go. There were subsequent newspaper revelations in the aftermath of the Watergate scandals about the Agency’s spying on American citizens, its involvement in the assassination of foreign leaders and its undermining of the socialist government of Salvador Allende.

Those revelations led to a dramatic series of hearings in the mid-1970s in the Senate, led by Frank Church of Idaho, that made it clear that Richard Helms, the Agency director at the time, accepted that he had an obligation to do what the President wanted, even if it meant violating the law.

In unpublished, closed-door testimony, Helms ruefully explained that “you almost have an Immaculate Conception when you do something” under secret orders from a President. “Whether it’s right that you should have it, or wrong that you shall have it, [the CIA] works under different rules and ground rules than any other part of the government.” He was essentially telling the Senators that he, as head of the CIA, understood that he had been working for the Crown, and not the Constitution.

The Americans at work in Norway operated under the same dynamic, and dutifully began working on the new problem—how to remotely detonate the C4 explosives on Biden’s order. It was a much more demanding assignment than those in Washington understood. There was no way for the team in Norway to know when the President might push the button. Would it be in a few weeks, in many months or in half a year or longer?

The C4 attached to the pipelines would be triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane on short notice, but the procedure involved the most advanced signal processing technology. Once in place, the delayed timing devices attached to any of the four pipelines could be accidentally triggered by the complex mix of ocean background noises throughout the heavily trafficked Baltic Sea—from near and distant ships, underwater drilling, seismic events, waves and even sea creatures. To avoid this, the sonar buoy, once in place, would emit a sequence of unique low frequency tonal sounds—much like those emitted by a flute or a piano—that would be recognized by the timing device and, after a pre-set hours of delay, trigger the explosives. (“You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,” I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol, who has served as the science adviser to the Pentagon’s Chief of Naval Operations, said the issue facing the group in Norway because of Biden’s delay was one of chance: “The longer the explosives are in the water the greater risk there would be of a random signal that would launch the bombs.”)

On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.

FALLOUT

In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit, spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as “complicating theories about who was behind” the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.

While it was never clear why Russia would seek to destroy its own lucrative pipeline, a more telling rationale for the President’s action came from Secretary of State Blinken.

Asked at a press conference last September about the consequences of the worsening energy crisis in Western Europe, Blinken described the moment as a potentially good one:

“It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs. That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.”


More recently, Victoria Nuland expressed satisfaction at the demise of the newest of the pipelines. Testifying at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in late January she told Senator Ted Cruz, “​Like you, I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

The source had a much more streetwise view of Biden’s decision to sabotage more than 1500 miles of Gazprom pipeline as winter approached. “Well,” he said, speaking of the President, “I gotta admit the guy has a pair of balls. He said he was going to do it, and he did.”

Asked why he thought the Russians failed to respond, he said cynically, “Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did.

“It was a beautiful cover story,” he went on. “Behind it was a covert operation that placed experts in the field and equipment that operated on a covert signal.

“The only flaw was the decision to do it.”

(This article was first published by SeymourHersh)
(Copyright © SeymourHersh)

5.9 million lithium found in J&K,third largest reserve in the world

The Geological Survey of India during it’s 62nd Central Geological Programming Board (CGPB) meeting declared that 5.0 million tonnes of lithium reserves has been discovered in Salal-Haimana area of the Reasi district of J&K. Lithium is a non-ferrous metal and one of the key components in lithium-ion batteries, the type of energy storage used most widely in various gadgets right from laptops, digital phones, to electric vehicles. The discovery of lithium is the first for India and it has opened avenues  for India for not only being less dependent on lithium imports but also developing it’s own source for India’s clean energy goals by cutting carbon emissions to tackle global warming.Up till now there was no lithium presence in India which makes the country entirely dependent on countries like Australia, U.S., Argentina, Chile, etc., which have huge lithium reserves. According to experts this discovery will help India’s push to increase the number of private electric cars by 30% by 2030 and India will be surpassing some of these countries as per indicative report. However, experts have also said that the process of mining lithium is not environment friendly as it requires a lot of water.

Jammu and Kashmir mining secretary Amit Sharma said, “Finally, Jammu and Kashmir has made history in the mining sector as we have for the first time the discovered critical mineral lithium used in mobile batteries and electric vehicles. Congrats to all J&K residents as it has finally brought us on the global map in this ongoing G20 Presidency year”, . The quality of lithium found is reported to be of good quality (500+ppm).The residents of Salal are in jubilation that the lithium deposits will surely put their Reasi district up on the global map.

Video of the lithium reserves found in J&K

Desperate Pak pushing narcotic drugs in Kashmir

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The Origins

Amongst the several areas of its expertise, the Pakistani Army’s spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] has achieved excellence in the field of organised narcotics peddling. Initiated into this dark trade by America’s notorious spy agency Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] during its US proxy war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, ISI put its heart and soul into this enterprise and came out with flying colours.

A US Congressional Report titled ‘Pakistan’s Involvement in Narco-Terrorism’ tabled on 3 October 1994, mentioned a Washington Post investigative report based on an interview with former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. During this interview, Sharif “claimed that three months after his election as Prime Minister in November 1990, Gen. Aslam Beg, then Army Chief of Staff, and [Lt] Gen Asad Durrani, then head of the military’s Inter-Services Intelligence bureau (ISI), told him the armed forces needed more money for covert foreign operations and wanted to raise it through large-scale drug deals” [emphasis added].

On being told that “We have a blueprint ready for your approval”, Sharif claims “I told them categorically not to initiate any such operation, and a few days later I called [Gen] Beg again to tell that I have disapproved the ISI plan to back heroin smuggling.” Sharif however admitted that he had “no sources” to confirm whether his directions had been complied with and even though he believed that this reprehensible plan wasn’t executed, facts on ground doesn’t support his optimism.

While Lt Gen Durrani [expectedly] denied it, a Western diplomat who had “occasional dealings” with both the then Pakistan Army Chief as well as his spymaster and was based in Islamabad when this purported meeting took place had opined that “It’s not inconceivable that they could come up with a plan like this” [emphasis added].

Despite such incriminating evidence of ISI’s involvement in narco-terrorism coming from none less than a former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Washington chose to look the other way. This comes as no big surprise since ISI was just doing what the CIA had taught it to do.Just like the US couldn’t rein-in ISI from dealing in drugs, the Pakistani Army’s top brass couldn’t restrain other army officers down the chain from doing likewise.

Hurriyat’s Dubious Role

In its efforts to play down the fact that it’s nothing but ISI’s proxy propagating Pakistan’s motivated Kashmir agenda, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference [APHC] misses no chance to play politics. So, while profusely lamenting the burgeoning drug abuse in Kashmir Valley, they have strangely not yet galvanised the public to unmask drug peddlers. Compare this with vigilante squads that spring up to ensure APHC’s shutdown calls are forcibly enforced, even if it results in the death of perceived violators of APHC’s diktats. 

During his Friday address to the congregational gathering at Jamia Masjid in July 2019, APHC leader Mirwaiz Umar Farook said, “Members from cross section of society have been informing me [and] I have been receiving large number of letters suggesting the menace of drug addiction is spreading far and wide in Srinagar and across the valley especially among the youth including girls.” While he advised parents against making “easy money” available to their children, and advised teachers, the clergy and members of Mohalla and Masjid committees to “wake up to this reality”, he came up with no concrete plan of action that APHC would undertake to tackle this menace.

Senior APHC leader Late SAS Geelani too waxed eloquent on this issue by observing that “The drug menace seems to be the last nail in the coffin and before this evil destroys the basics of our culture, identity, faith and social network, it needs to be dealt with a strong hand.” But just like Mirwaiz, while he too spoke of an urgent requirement of this malaise to be addressed at domestic, village, mohalla, district and state levels but inexplicably kept APHC out of the ‘crusade’ against drugs.

Failure of APHC to act against drug abuse is a clear indication that being the handiwork of its benefactors sitting across the LoC, this separatist conglomerate can’t afford to act tough by garnering public support to challenge this scourge!

Present Status

ISI had institutionalised narcotics smuggling three decades ago as one of the means to finance its disruptive activities in India. However, New Delhi’s clamp down on terror funding and Pakistan’s precarious financial condition has increased ISI’s reliance on narcotic trade profits for fuelling terrorism in India. However, thanks to an effective surveillance grid along the international border and LoC, using terrorists and their sympathisers to smuggle narcotics has become quite difficult.

Consequently, a cash-strapped ISI has ramped up its efforts to push-in narcotics and is also using smugglers to ferry arms and ammunition for terrorists in J&K. The continuing seizure of narcotics and warlike stores being smuggled into India from Pakistan using underground tunnels, surface means and even drones leave no doubt in anyone’s mind that trafficking of narcotics from Pakistan into India is being facilitated and supervised by ISI.

Prognosis

Working with exceptional synergy, the Indian Army as well as paramilitary and police forces in J&K have effectively been able to contain smuggling of narcotics, and with 4598 cases of drug smuggling being registered in J&K from 2017 to 2021 indicates the seriousness of this issue. In addition, security forces are working with the government and NGOs to increase public awareness against drug abuse and rehabilitate addicts through comprehensive de-addiction programmes. Though an extremely painstaking and challenging task, it will certainly go a big way in reducing the drug menace in Kashmir.

Conversely, since it’s an excellent source of easy money, narco-terrorism will continue to find favour with Rawalpindi and with Pakistan now out of the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, ISI will most definitely ramp up its narcotics smuggling operations. Hence, New Delhi can’t afford to be complacent on this issue and it must keep exposing ISI narco-terrorism activities in all international forums. Simultaneously, legal proceedings against those involved in narco-terrorism need to be fast-tracked and stringent punishment must be awarded to the perpetrators. 

J&K demolition drive is small attempt to correct land grab by radical Islamists

After UP, J&K has come into focus for bulldozing operations. There is a weird story behind the grabbing of state lands and erecting residential or commercial structures on them. It is not only a matter of illegal land grab and its weird aftermath; it is a schematic intrigue forged by the top ruling or non-ruling valley-based political leadership supported discreetly by the state bureaucracy with sinister objectives.  Proverbially speaking, it is the tip of the iceberg and the time demands that its bottom should be exposed.

Land grabbing or encroachment of state land is not unprecedented wrongdoing nor is it limited to J&K only. But what we are trying to unravel is a long-drawn game plan aimed at subverting secularism and democracy to perpetuate the precedence of Muslim majoritarianism in J&K which may ultimately end up in the emergence of a theocratic state in theory and practice.

The Machiavellian enterprise of transferring thousands of canals of state land —barren or grassland— nearby the capital cities, to the members of one particular community against a cost next to nothing, with covert or overt involvement of the devious bureaucracy, is a definitive exposé of the Kashmir leadership aiming at converting Kashmir into an Islamic theocratic State.

Knowing that democracy means numbers as long as our sham democracy is concerned, it is obvious that the concentration of a religion-fixated community wants to attain the first pre-requisite of political empowerment through the instrument of majority vote.

Two objectives were behind the dubious Roshni Act. Amusingly, the essence of the Roshni Act was injected into the socio-political construct of J&K by both NC and PDP.  Working in tandem, both agreed to make the Congress-ruled administration its cat’s paw. Thus, Ghulam Nabi Azad of Congress, expecting the two mainstream parties of Kashmir to lend support to his government, agreed to carry the cross. After going through some revisions, the notorious Roshni Act was passed by the legislative assembly. This is how an anti-national move that would strike at the roots of democratic secular dispensation in the State was legalized.

Armed with a strong instrument of legislative approval, the government unhesitatingly began to unfold its objective of working out the preliminaries of a theocracy to replace the fragile secularist dispensation. The modality for executing the plan was what is known in Islamic jurisprudence as “takiya” or concealment. How the plan of Islamization would be implemented, who would be the prime actors, what was the time frame, etc., all related details were kept as highly guarded secrets. Secrecy is the hallmark of Islamic jurisprudence and that is why democracy does not suit the Islamic mindset. It has not succeeded anywhere in the Islamic world.

The concealment theory referred to above, unfolded first in 1990, when the NC leadership resigned from the government. It was a masterstroke to legitimize all the perfidy that followed the outspread of insurgency in Kashmir Valley. To disown any responsibility, the NC top leader took a speedy flight to London to be out of the picture as the sponsored terrorists unleashed mayhem, killing and chaos that ultimately forced the hapless Hindu minority to flee the land of their ancestors. The leader who had been voted to power through a democratic process, played golf in London while his voters saw the sword of death and devastation hanging on their heads. The plan of ethnic cleansing of Kashmir was in full progress.

The planning was foolproof. After the NC leader hid in London, his ministers were no more in power, but still ran to Jammu, grabbed government quarters, and established liaison with the insurgent commanders to guide and advise  how the ethnic cleansing and Islamization of Kashmir had to be pursued. At the same time, they impressed upon the Commissioner and others in the Jammu administration to provide them with full security.

Farooq knew that after he resigned, Governor’s rule would be imposed in J&K. That happened to the satisfaction of NC as well as PDP and other dissenting groups because now they had the buffer between them and the administration in New Delhi. They brought slander against the governor saying it was on his behest that the Hindus departed from the valley. The entire Muslim population of Kashmir orchestrated the same narrative which continues down to the present day. In doing so, they do not mean to malign Governor, the late Jagmohan. They meant to shift the onus to the buffer between them and New Delhi.

In this way, the first step of denuding the Valley of the presence of Hindus and paving the path for Islamization became a success. Since the Congress or BJP government in New Delhi did not react to the heinous crime of subjecting the valley to ethnic cleansing and genocide of the Hindus, the operators of the Islamization agenda got emboldened and embarked on the second stage of solidifying the theocratic character of Kashmir.

The second vicious step was of building up concentrated Islamic locales in the peripheries of Jammu city. The objective is to equalize or even upset the demographic complexion of the city. Muslim-dominated localities like Sidhra, By Pass, Sabzi Mandi, Sanjwan, Gujar Nagar, etc., were either built or reinforced. Mostly, members of the affluent sections of the valley majority came to inhabit these locales where the government immediately provided civic facilities to make their stay in new locales comfortable and hassle-free.

The third and crucial step was to plan the establishment of vast inhabitation in Jammu of a good number of the valley’s majority community members plus the affluent Muslims from the far-flung areas like Bhaderwah, Doda, Kishtwar, Rajouri, Poonch, Surankot, Ramnagar etc. To achieve this goal, the valley-based leadership drew up the collective plan of grabbing thousands of canals of state land in the proximity of Jammu city and planting the Muslim population there. Avoiding direct responsibility, they let the Azad government (Congress) carry the cross. The Roshni Act was passed which opened the way for bringing up the tail-end of the masterplan.

Two important guiding outlines were strictly observed in distributing the loot called Roshni Act. One was that no non-Muslim would be allowed to claim or bid for land under Roshni Act, and secondly, the land would be given away to the bidders (only Muslims) against almost no price. Thus, land worth billions of rupees were given away for peanuts. It was indirectly a gift for those Muslims who had opted for the Islamization of J&K by agreeing to inhabit the new sites.

 Who then were the recipients of the largesse of the Kashmir government? Chief Ministers or their wards, former or sitting ministers, MLAs, top Muslim bureaucrats, political leaders of all hues, industrialists, business magnates, political bigwigs, mafia runners, influential segments of administrative departments and affluent Muslims from any part of the State.

They grabbed large chunks of land almost free of cost, and established localities as detailed below:

1.Khatinka Talab- 90% Muslim

2. Gujjar Nagar 90–95% Muslim

3. Bathinda-80–85% Muslim

4.Sunjawan-90%  Muslim

5. Sidhra-80–90% Muslim

 6. Karbala-80% (Mostly Shia Muslims)

7. New Plot-50–60% (Mostly Shia)

8. Malik Market-70–80% Muslim

 9. Channa Rama-65–75% Muslim

10.Raika (Near Sidra) 95–100% Muslim

11. Agoda (Near Sidra) – 75% Muslim

12. Baxalta- 79–85% Muslim

13.Prem Nagar (Near Gujjar Nagar) 50–60% Muslim

14.Shahabad Colony (Near Baghe Bahu)-85% Muslim

15. Bashir Gujjar Basti (Near Blachernae) – 90–99% Muslim

It is in these localities — where revenue records show the lands belong to the state and were illegally grabbed by the occupants — the bulldozer has to come to play its role.

The question is this: Will the bulldozer be able to visit all these localities or not? The final take from this sordid story is that the Kashmir political rulers established nearly two dozen Muslim-dominated localities in Jammu but it is not prepared to allow the displaced Pandits to return and resettle in Kashmir. That makes us believe we are living in a sham of secular democracy which in practice is the Islamized state of J&K.

 

 

Russian version of Ukraine war: An existential crisis, a long and tough road ahead

‘The war in Ukraine in 2023, will see prolonged, grinding attrition operations along a line of control that neither side accepts’

Total multi-domain war in the times of no war
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff during Nov 22, sent shock waves through Western capitals when he declared that the war in Ukraine is unwinnable by purely military means[i]. He further suggested, “now that Ukraine is in a position of strength, and winter acting as an obstacle to both sides, it would be appropriate to consider peace talks with Russia”. He referred to World War I, when the adversaries’ refusal to negotiate led to millions of additional deaths, and stopped short of saying, that the world could well be heading for WW III under a nuclear backdrop. His remarks caused consternation not only in Kyiv but also in NATO, and many of its Western backers, including Poland, the Baltics, North America, and the United Kingdom, which have endorsed Ukraine’s pursuit of complete military victory. Many EU leaders like the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas have categorically stated that the only path to peace is to push Russia out of Ukraine, which in essence implies defeating Russia militarily[ii]. Their rhetoric and wishes do not end there, they demand the trial of Russia’s political and military leadership for war crimes, reparation of damages and NATO membership to Ukraine. Frankly, even to a geo-political novice, these terms and conditions would be unacceptable to Russia. President Zelensky’s ten-point peace plan restates the same, making even talks forget about reaching a deal a non-starter.

Geo-political implications
We are looking at a long war of attrition, which would increasingly cause geo-political upheavals and conditions not in the control of even the most dominant player, the USA. Naturally, it would imply that the West and NATO led by USA would continue to support Ukraine in all domains; military, economic, diplomatic, information warfare (global perception management), intelligence sharing and psychological. All the while testing red lines which could abruptly explode, increasing the danger of escalation both in terms of span of conflict (nuclear conflagration), and inadvertently drawing in nations on both sides specially NATO. The war has already had a very deep and adverse impact on the global economy specially for the Global South, as also providing opportunities to non-conformist authoritarian/autocratic nations to secure their national interests at the cost of other nations and a stable security environment; Chinese adventurism, over-reacting USA raising fears of another cold war, energy crisis, right wing expansionism, decline of globalisation and multi-lateralism with rise in ‘my nation first’. It has compelled nations specially the smaller and poorer ones to adopt a policy of strategic/principled neutrality, to ensure they do not get singed to machinations of either side of the conflict. The West essentially would like to degrade Russia’s comprehensive national power (CNP) to such an extent that she no longer can impose her will in Europe and globally; for this Russia has to lose and President Putin has to go. Consequences have been colossal and tragic so far; over six million Ukrainian refugees and counting; over one million deaths on both sides[iii], destruction of essential infrastructure of Ukraine, freefalling Ukraine economy and a unified, stronger Europe robustly ganged up against Russia, whilst concurrently weaning itself off Russian energy and materials (ideal conditions for escalation).

Ukraine and the West are winning the information war
The outside world has been kept in the dark regarding the Russian perspective; why they started a calamitous war and how Russia is faring against the sanctions, and in the war. What emanates is also the western net and media inputs imagining the Russian thoughts. This article is focussed on the Russian perspective without being judgemental; difficult to access worthwhile material emanating from Russia as even the global tech and IT giants have corroborated in waging a ‘mother of all information and psychological wars’ highlighting and pushing their narrative, and as of now are winning in this vital information domain.

Crossing of Russia’s Red Lines: Existential anxieties
There is enough recorded evidence available, and supported by most strategic and defence experts that Ukraine joining NATO, has always been ‘The Mother of Red Lines’ for Russia. The Russian leaders, the military and public view this as existential, jeopardising their rightful place in the comity of nations. How can one forget that for many centuries and till two odd decades ago, Russia (albeit as USSR, but essentially Russia) was a global power with the largest nuclear arsenal. It would be reasonable to suggest that any leader other than Putin would have invaded Ukraine; before it is too late and a fait accompli NATO member.

Broad Russian public support and Russian resilience    
Contrary to Western media tirade, Russia is stronger than many would have predicted, and importantly her economy, leader and army have all weathered the storm. Putin has not lost his mystique and confidence, at least in his media interactions and speeches. Undoubtedly, Russia lacks the broad and deep support that Ukraine has received from its partners and allies, The Russian military would be dispirited by repeated defeats, but it has survived, learnt lessons, consolidated its defensive positions by shortening its front line and logistic tail. Its economy has by all counts withstood the storm though it will progressively weaken; currently down by just 3% , significantly less than some had predicted, and its financial system has proved sustainable and macro-economically stable. History has proved that economic pressures and sanctions have rarely ended a war. Russia’s war machine remains funded and equipped, and is suffering the same inadequacies which the West and Ukraine is facing; albeit with lesser avenues for procurement sensitive and key weaponry and munitions.

In today’s world of hyper nationalism, it is hardly surprising that the majority of Russians continue to support the Russian government and are not ready to accept defeat (grudgingly accepted by West). The common man has accepted Putin’s grave warning that Western sanctions were imposed to crush the Russian people. Many regard Crimea and its stronghold of Sevastopol worth fighting for, and Putin remains the guarantor of Russian sovereignty and stability. To many oligarchs and even most ordinary Russians, the possibility of a defeat and Putin’s removal is a nightmare scenario, which they fear may precipitate implosion of Russia. Hence, the outcome of the war is existential to most Russians. Putin has over the years written and declared “We always considered the Ukrainian people as brotherly, and I still think so,” and “What’s going on is certainly a tragedy, but it’s not a result of our policy.” Like in all totalitarian regimes, supporting numbers could change and reverse direction rapidly against Putin, as causalities rise and defeat seems more probable. Putin is fully aware of the consequences of a defeat to Russia and to him personally.

The ongoing winter and spring will be a crucial test for the Russian army’s ability to endure, but military experts do not predict its collapse. Many more defeats and retreats would be needed to change this assessment. The Ukrainians are already warning of a spring offensive when the freshly mobilised troops are available; what could be Putins operational objective is currently a matter of speculation. The new Russian military commander Gerasimov would have a strategic objective (Kyiv, strengthen the land corridor to Crimea, consolidate the Eastern and Southern fronts, establish credible governance structures), and be ready to slug it out against Ukrainian counter offensives.

Current US and NATO Approach will only fortify Russia to fight on
Western leaders including President Biden and allies have made no secret of their intentions of permanently defanging Russia. Apart from conditions stated earlier, they have implemented numerous unprincipled hypocritical steps prior and during the war, frozen over 300 billion Russian reserves; all of which only cement their intentions. Russians with access to the Western media on the internet do not accept that Russia is a “terrorist state” or an “imperialist nation.” Russian elites and many ordinary Russians believe that it is in their best interests to rally around the flag. Most importantly, the obvious intention of fighting to the last Ukrainian, only confirms the Russian populations belief that it will continue till Russia is defeated.

Strategic pointers emanating from Russia
Quoting French expert Emmanuel Todd, TASS reports that the United States is in a phase of long-term decline and is in real danger of losing control of the global finance network, hence, decided to press for greater influence in its “original protectorates,” acquired after World War II, combined with stunting the growth of its peer adversaries Russia and China[iv]. Todd interestingly adds that this war “has become existential even for the United States. It cannot get out of the conflict before Russia. They cannot let go. This explains why we are now in an open-ended war, in a confrontation that is bound to result in the collapse of one side or the other. As late as 18 Jan 23, Putin has vowed to pursue his campaign until Russia’s goals are met, while his defence chief announced start of military reforms[v], and plans to increase military to 1.5 from one million[vi]. This would include 695000 volunteer contract soldiers. TASS has repeatedly stressed President Erdogan reaffirms Turkey’s readiness to act as mediator in Ukrainian settlement[vii].[viii].

Screenshot of TASS News of 20 Jan 2023: www.tass.com/military-operations-in-Ukraine

Salient aspects of the War in 2022 as perceived by Meduza[ix] an independent website based in Riga, and other sources (daily reporting by TASS and TV channels RT, Moscow and NTV)
Interestingly and contrary to Western media, while the war narrative could well be controlled, but also surprises by candidly highlighting reverses, miscalculations and setbacks of the Russian military; in consonance with western inputs. Major inputs on the war during 2022 are bulleted below:-

Ground positions held by Russian and Ukrainian Forces on 13 November 2022
In first 48 hours, Russian military captured a significant amount of Ukrainian territory, taking advantage of an unprepared Ukrainian military less the Donbas region.

  • Within few weeks, the Russian army suffered a major defeat: completely withdrew from Ukraine’s north (with the exception of the Kharkiv area), and retreated South to 50 kilometres outside of Kherson.
  • Russia’s troops weren’t prepared to attack the positions of a fully deployed and well-motivated opponent.
  • Units very short of manpower: This affected troops’ ability to conduct combat operations and secure supply chains.
  • Vladimir Putin was unwilling to mobilise, and ordered only partial mobilisation end Sep 2022.
  • Battalion tactical groups (BTGs) consisting of soldiers at constant readiness turned out to be unsuitable for a full-scale war, being trained for hybrid war, with dirty work done by others like in Syria.
  • The Russian Aerospace Forces tried and failed to gain dominance in Ukrainian airspace. Anti-air defences were ineffective, lack of precision guided munitions (PGMs) was a big drawback. Aviation could not play its part in defence or offensive, allowing Ukrainian forces to manoeuvre at will. 
  • Logistics system also proved ill-suited for intensive fighting, as it depended on railroads. Offensive operations restricted to parts of Donetsk, western parts of the Luhansk region, and eastern parts of the Kharkiv region.
  • The arrival of HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems in Jul 22, considerably changed the situation on the front, exacerbating Russia’s already-serious logistics problems. Large Russian weapons storage facilities were blowing up practically every day. Russian artillery activity decreased markedly after July.
  • The Russians pulled off one of the hardest military operations: retreating during a major attack without suffering the disintegration or annihilation of their forces. It was no small feat to move over 20,000 soldiers and most of their combat equipment across the Dnieper after Ukrainian forces had destroyed key bridges, combined with intense intelligence surveillance by the West and Ukraine; they managed to maintain the element of surprise.
  • The Russians have launched a cunningly effective bombing campaign against Ukraine’s electricity generation, transmission, and distribution system, which are particularly effective. Apart from winter survival of public, it imposes direct and indirect military costs. Modern military systems like air defence, command and control, and intelligence gathering will now run on generators. This would degrade their performance, and impose additional burden on Ukraine’s military logistics system. The heat signatures produced will help Russian intelligence to produce a more accurate picture of Ukrainian forces.

Russia’s Current strategy
Moscow now seems reconciled to a simple war aim: hold on to the land it has seized. Follow two military strategies to pursue this objective. The first, fight smarter like retreating from Kharkiv, by creating compact, dense defences and make the Ukrainians pay dearly for every effort to recover territory. The second, is to exploit the vulnerability of Ukraine’s infrastructure (specially electric) and hitting Ukrainian society and dividing force application, and concurrently making it costlier for allies. Deliberate offensives cannot be ruled out.

  • Which side has an edge in 2023?
  • Ukraine is totally dependent on the West, and will find it more difficult to recapture real estate; both sides will mobilise more manpower; will fight with less munitions. However, Ukraine will still have an edge till the West continue supporting her, and sanctions slowly and steadily corrode Russia’s economic and military power.

The Road ahead once sanity prevails
As of now, neither side including the West, have any intention of stopping military operations and reach the negotiating table. Understandably, Ukraine fights to get her lands and honour back and even thinks of re-capturing Crimea (red flag for Russian) and achieving lasting peace with the big bear, while for Russia the outcome of the war is existential for Putin and Russia. Of the two, Russia is more amenable for talks having consolidated a compact defence line West of Dneiper. There appears to be no starting point for negotiations. The ‘likely outcome during 2023, is a prolonged, grinding war along a line of control that neither side accepts’.

A plan requiring statesmanship on all sides
There is no coherent geo-political plan currently. A visionary map needs to be drawn up by the major powers in which neutral India has a major role to play, with credible access to friends Russia and Ukraine. Both sides need to be explained the risks of continuing the war as neither side is capable of winning, and achieving their strategic aims. Russia’s future, is economic degradation and dependency on China as a junior partner. The CNP and clout of Russia will certainly reduce, possibly causing internal unravelling. Russia (people, oligarchs, Putin) must feel assured that Russia’s sovereignty and integrity will be respected after a peace settlement with Ukraine, no attempt at regime change from West, sanctions will be lifted, her frozen reserves will be accessible, and major security red lines will not be crossed. As wishful as it may sound, offering Russia to be part of Europe’s security architecture other than NATO could be thought of[x].

Bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table is another matter altogether. Zelensky’s plan focuses on retaking all lands including Crimea, and retribution for Ukraine and forcing Russia to comply. Frankly, Ukraine must be coerced to understand that such an absolutist approach will only devastate Ukraine completely, with no guarantees that the West will continue to support her, with their dwindling war fighting reserves and economic woes. Attempt to retake Crimea could cause unimaginable consequences even a nuclear conflagration. Often, it is a wise strategy to leave an intractable subject for future negotiations. A deal could even awaken the Russian population to change their regime, stop the war, with their desire to integrate with the world.

The likely Outcome: Attrition warfare
One has suggested a roadmap, but based on existing ground and geo-political realities, cease fire or disengagement through talks for the present appears improbable. The world needs to be prepared for a long drawn out war. The West not only needs to continue supporting Ukraine (already NATO countries are baulking at supplying potent and long-distance weapon systems like Germany and its Leopard tanks), but also ensure no escalation geographically (now a very realistic probability). A tragic deadlock/ stalemate indeed. At some stage, either or both sides will be forced to negotiate. It must be pointed out that Russia is no stranger to frozen conflicts (Georgia, Moldova and even Syria and Sudan) and sieges (Stalingrad). Given the perception of the Russian people, a regime change too is unlikely, and even if it occurs, the new leader could well be cut from the same cloth, or worse fearing implosion. We could well be staring at the start of World War III. The only glimmer of hope is that all sides have maintained communication.

Conclusion
Forecasting the war in Ukraine is fraught with uncertainties and unpredictable complexities. But understanding the destabilizing effects of long and highly destructive wars should compel all actors to arrive at a pragmatic agreement. It naturally should offer Ukraine her security, and Russia her future. Rather than waiting to react to Moscow and Kyiv’s latest actions or hoping for Putin’s imminent downfall, the West must take the initiative to outline terms and conditions to initiate talks. Increasingly it appears that India with its robust international standing and outreach to friends Russia and Ukraine, along with USA and NATO, can play an incisive and decisive role to initiate the peace process.


[i]Very difficult to militarily eject Russian forces from Ukrainian territory in 2023, says US general’, https://indianexpress.com/article/world/russia-ukraine-war-end-military-us-general-8395057/.

[ii] No One Would Win a Long War in Ukraine: The West Must Avoid the Mistakes of World War I, by Vladislav Zubok, Foreign Affairs, December 21, 2022, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/no-one-would-win-long-war-ukraine.

[iii] ‘Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides’, BBC News, 10 Nov 22, available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372.

[iv]  ‘US may lose control of world finance due to conflict in Ukraine — French expert’, TASS, 13 JAN 2023, available at https://tass.com/world/1561887.

[v] Reforms include large-scale changes to the composition of the Armed Forces, increase in its size, and changes to the military-administrative divisions of the Russian Federation, and plan for inclusion of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

[vi] TASS Updates 17/18 Jan 2023, https//www.tass.com – military -operations-ukraine

[vii] TASS, 16 Jan 23, https//www.tass.com – military-operations-in-ukraine; Erdogan reaffirms Turkey’s readiness to act as mediator in Ukrainian settlement,

[viii] TASS News and update on Ukraine War dated 20 Dec 2022, carried by CNBC News, 21 Dec 2022, Associated Press, available at https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-win-military-1-million-shoigu-rcna62758.

[ix] Source: Meduza, available at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/01/05/the-true-war-of-attrition-begins, Translation by Sam Breazeale.

[x]Russia’s Rebound: How Moscow Has Partly Recovered From Its Military Setbacks’ by Barry R. Posen, January 04, 2023, Foreign Affairs, available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-rebound-moscow-recovered-military-setbacks.

(This article was first published in Bharatshakti.in)

Unassertive DDA dents investor confidence in Delhi

“While DDA are owners of one of the costliest & largest chunks of real estate in the world, mismanagement has led to its liabilities exceeding Rs 10k cr.”

This admission of truth was tweeted by the Lieutenant Governor (LG) of Delhi last year. As the Chairman of DDA, LG-Delhi is well within his rights to shakeup an institution which hasn’t credited itself over the past 2-3 decades. In all fairness, the multiplicity of authority in Delhi hasn’t helped. DDA neither attempted nor evolved as the single window for urbanization planning & implementation of land. Possibly, the multiplicity of authority helped hide systemic deficiencies. Cities in Haryana & U.P (e.g., Gurugram & Noida) evolved as modern centers of economic activity while the capital of India languished. 

To illustrate my point, let me illustrate the efficacy of time bound implementation of urban planning policies; comparing Delhi and Singapore. 

–       Delhi is 1483 sq. kms while Singapore is about 728 sq. kms. 

–       Delhi population is 20 million (approx.) while Singapore is 5.5 million 

–       Delhi Population density is 11320 per sq. km while Singapore is 8358

–       Delhi’s projected population is 31 million & while Singapore is 6 million (*Reckoning period)

–       Singapore is amongst the global economic nerve centers while Delhi still hosts legacy business hubs.

History

DDA came into being while the private sector was nonexistent in housing & urban development. Whatever DDA built was consumed by a supply deficit market. Buyers paid in advance for substandard design & finished product. The imprint of socialist era lingered in DDA till recent times.

The private sector evolved at a rapid pace and could create a supply surge in surrounding markets of Delhi and developed thousands of hectares of land abutting Delhi. Sleepy cities like Gurgaon & Noida became nerve centers of economic activity in north India. 

The world rapidly changed and true PPP models evolved; governments encouraged private sector expertise & investments into urbanization through efficacious policy initiatives. DDA was caught napping! Mostly by design.

Master plan 2021 (MPD2021) was hastily drafted in by the then government without much thought on the implementation process. To compound matters, far too many flip-flops happened on the policy. The private sector, enthused by the opportunity to develop the capital of the country invested more than Rs. 50,000 crores. Landowners, both farmers & investors collectively have more than one lakh acres of developable land

Under MPD2021, DDA launched the Land-Pooling & Low-Density Residential area (LDRA) policies with much fanfare. With no implementation roadmap in hand, they caused millions of $ worth losses to the investors. 

Over the years, we have seen the Parliament debate public losses, PSUs have been privatized to produce results, promoters & wrong doers have been sent to jail – all such affirmative actions taken by policy makers for much lower losses than what the landowners & investors of Delhi have lost. 

Is it because DDA isn’t held responsible for their unassertive governance & zero accountability towards public & private investments? Aren’t they responsible for saving their own land assets from being illegally occupied? Can’t they stop unscrupulous elements to develop unauthorized settlements on govt. land? Shouldn’t they welcome the billions of $ worth private investment into Delhi? 

MPD2021 was to conclude in the year 2021; not a single large Greenfield project, on Private land, privately invested & developed was licensed by DDA in 15 years. 

By then, it was time to write the vision document for the next 20 years, and Master plan 2041 (MPD 2041, draft documents & maps are available on the DDA website.) 

Policy shortcomings notwithstanding, the ray of hope emanates from Delhi LG office & MoHUA who seem committed to adhere to the vision of Masterplan 2041 and it’s understood that the Supreme Court of India has been informed that the MPD2041 document would be approved by 30th April 2023.

Thousands of acres of land under villages designated for Land-Pooling & Green Development Area (GDA) can be developed as ‘Modern High-density & Low-density Urban clusters. It’s time the plans are drawn on paper & development roadmap fixed.

 
I am often asked – Is today the best time to buy?

As always, the answer is – Only if you have a clear vision of the exit strategy which includes the development timeline. I am happy to help landowners. Let it be known to most that neither would DDA undertake large scale land acquisition nor create the detailed land distribution plans. In GDA villages, there would be one fulcrum institution which would create the layout plan, detail the development economics & create profit for landowners and investors. Of course, the end buyer gets a modern world class product, that too, within the municipal limits of Delhi.

It’s high time that DDA also does a detailed SWOT analysis & identify areas where they transform into a ‘single window facilitator’ for a $100 billion opportunity over the next decade, which includes managing the politics & multiplicity of authority. 

The private sector is happy to help, however & wherever possible.

Why is the world silent on Pakistan’s disinformation about Kashmir?

While flaunting it as a solemn occasion called ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day’, Islamabad organises a comical extravaganza of sorts with emotional [as well as menacing] speeches and contrived protests [which includes the indispensable burning of the Indian national flag] on 5 February every year. However, despite all the “sound and fury” it contains, this three-decade old annual ritual has failed to evoke any meaningful international response whatsoever, and the reason for the same isn’t very hard to find.

Islamabad’s Incredulous Stand on Kashmir

Pakistan takes a lot of pain to keep reminding the world that its Kashmir narrative is “principled” as it is completely in accordance with relevant UNSC resolutions on this issue. This raises the obvious question- why is no one endorsing Islamabad’s so-called “principled’ stand on Kashmir? To determine whether Pakistan’s allegation of global apathy towards Kashmir is true, it’s necessary to examine what is actually stated in UNSC Resolution 47, which Islamabad keeps invoking at the mere drop of the hat!

Even a cursory perusal of this UNSC resolution will reveal that Islamabad’s so-called “principled” stand on Kashmir is a humongous sham and a pathetic case of ‘cherry-picking’. What’s even more astonishing is that despite being nothing but an attempt to conceal its own failure in fulfilling the mandatory prerequisites necessary to implement UNSC resolutions on Kashmir, Islamabad still feels that the world will swallow the brazen lies it’s peddling.

Pakistan’s Impertinence

While UNSC Resolution 47 does mention plebiscite in J&K, this exercise can only be undertaken after Pakistan complies with two critical directives laid down by UNSC. One, it needs to withdraw all Pakistani nationals from Pakistan occupied Kashmir [PoK], and two, it needs to “provide full freedom to all subjects of the State, regardless of creed, caste, or party, to express their views and to vote on the question of the accession of the State, and that therefore they should co-operate in the maintenance of peace and order.” [Emphasis added].

Ironically, while it keeps complaining about New Delhi’s refusal to implement UNSC resolutions on Kashmir, Islamabad itself is guilty of failing to facilitate the plebiscite process by fulfilling the UNSC directions ibid. While PoK remains under the iron fist of the Pakistani Army, Section 7[3] of PoK’s Interim Constitution forbids any attempt by its citizens “to propagate against, or take part in activities prejudicial or detrimental to, the ideology of the State’s accession to Pakistan.” [Emphasis added].

So, when the Pakistani Army continues to occupy POK and the constitution of POK categorically deprives its citizens “full freedom . . . to vote on the question of the accession of the State,” with what face can Islamabad demand that people of J&K should be allowed to exercise their ‘right to self-determination’? Accordingly, it’s not at all surprising that the international community pays no heed to Pakistan’s ridiculous lament?

‘Disputed Territory’ Diatribe

Another central ingredient of Islamabad’s feeble Kashmir narrative is its own bizarre deduction that J&K is a “disputed territory”. In fact, ever since New Delhi abrogated Article 370, this seems to have become the proverbial ‘fig leaf’ with which Islamabad is trying to hide the near complete obliteration of its Kashmir narrative.

Pakistan claims that UNSC resolutions imply that J&K is “disputed territory,” and even though deeply flawed, let’s, solely for discussion’s sake, accept the same. As the phrase suggests, “disputed territory” denotes a piece of land whose ownership is undecided, and hence its claimants have no rights on the same. So, by arbitrarily ceding the approximately 5,180 km2 Shaksgam tract in PoK to China in 1963, how can Pakistan even believe in its wildest dreams that the international community will buy its absurd “disputed territory” deduction!

Secondly, a claimant can’t allow a ‘third party’ to undertake any developmental activity on ‘disputed’ land without explicit permission of other claimant[s] or the authority which had determined that the area in question is ‘disputed territory’. So, allowing infrastructure creation by China in POK under its CPEC projects without even approaching UNSC, serves as the final nail in Pakistan’s ‘disputed territory’ coffin!

 Revisiting Indian Response

Absence of any serious takers for Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative and its weird habit of making a fool of itself through foot-in-mouth utterances may well be two of the reasons for New Delhi’s subdued response to Islamabad’s virulent verbal attacks. Readers may recall that after Article 370 abrogation Islamabad approached UNSC with great flourish to get this decision revoked. However, just a day before the scheduled UNSC meet, the then Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi warned his people not to live in a “fool’s paradise” as UNSC members, “are not waiting for you with garlands in their hands.” Similarly, after making a lot of noise and announcing that it had decided to take the Article 370 abrogation issue to the International Court of Justice, Islamabad suddenly developed cold feet and never exercised this option. 

Silence on Pakistan’s diplomatic blunderbuss is a mature response as it clearly indicates that Islamabad’s allegations are so incredulous that they don’t deserve a response. Nevertheless, by letting Islamabad get away with slander gives its proxies in Kashmir an opportunity to echo the same falsehood and indoctrinate gullible Kashmiris. This in turn retards mainstreaming efforts in Kashmir Valley and as such there is a definite requirement for New Delhi to be more proactive and immediately demolish Islamabad’s canards.

So, while Islamabad continues its puerile efforts to showcase solidarity with secessionists in Kashmir, New Delhi needs to expose Pakistan’s shameless duplicity and outrageous machinations in Kashmir to the world [in general] and people of Kashmir [in particular]. This shouldn’t be a difficult task, as unlike Islamabad which has to conjure myths in order to keep its Kashmir narrative alive, all that New Delhi has to do is to simply present facts and these by themselves will automatically expose Pakistan’s unending litany of lies!