Pakistan, battling a severe economic crisis, is now bracing for a harsh winter with the deepening energy shortage. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was in a position to supply gas to Pakistan as pipeline infrastructure was in place but the Shehbaz Sharif government which is now going all out to woo Washington may find it difficult to source Russian gas.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, analysts said, is set to deal a blow to Pakistan’s energy sector as Islamabad -Washington ties improve. Pakistan’s dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased over the years and now the rise in global fuel prices has become a cause for concern.
The country’s public policy think-tank Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, in a recent report said that demand for natural gas has risen by 11 per cent in the last few years though 78 per cent of households have no access to natural gas, natural gas consumption in the domestic
The challenge has increased even more as compared to the industry, supplying gas to households requires higher investments. But there has been no investments to this effect making things tougher.
Natural gas and imported LNG contribute more than 40 per cent Islamabad’s current energy mix, including gas resources used in electricity generation. While in the recent years, the demand for gas has increased rapidly, gas exploration and production have declined, and the LNG operational and regulatory framework is weak which in turn had led to a nationwide shortage and increased supply costs, PIDE said.
After the killing of a SPO in Pinglana, Pulwama district on 2 Oct 2022, the India intelligence agencies were continuously tracking movement of a group of terrorists. The persistent effort of intelligence agencies resulted in tracking of movement of Hanan Bin Yakoob along with his accomplices to Shopian. Then,based on the specific input received, a joint cordon and search operation was launched by the Indian Army and JKP in general area of Drach, Shopian on 4 October 2022.
The security forces established a cordon around the suspected house in village Drach with speed and stealth. Continuous surveillance and inputs from ground confirmed presence of three terrorists in the house. As the search commenced, security forces were subjected to heavy volume of automatic fire which continued throughout the night. During the period, the security forces not only safely evacuated the civilians in the area but also prevented attempts by terrorists to break the cordon. Subsequently, the ensued firefight led to neutralisation of three terrorists and recovery of three AK rifles, one pistol, several rounds of ammunition and other war like stores.
The neutralised terrorists were later identified as Hanan Bin Yakoob, resident of Karimabad, Zubair Ah Wani of Doompora and Jamshed Ah Magray of Rajpora. Hanan and Jamshed were not only actively involved in recruitment of innocent and gullible youth but were also involved in killing of innocent civilians, attack on security forces including recent killing of SPO Javed Dar and attack on innocent civilians in Kharbatpura, Pulwama.
On 27 September , the Indian Army received an information from JKP [Kulgam] regarding the presence of terrorists in Avhotu village of Kulgam District. Following this tip off a joint cordon and search operation was launched in the area by the Indian Army along with JKP and CRPF.
The army established a quick initial cordon around the suspected cluster of houses in the village which was subsequently strengthened by additional troops. On confirmation of presence of terrorists in the suspected house, priority was given first for evacuation of civilians from the cordon to a safe location. Thereafter, the Army unit tried to induce surrender of the hiding terrorists by making repeated surrender calls, however to no avail.
Following this the Army searched the target house and it is reported that the terrorists resorted to indiscriminate firing in an attempt to break the cordon. The Army retaliated with effective firing, thereby foiling the escape attempt of the terrorists and killing one of the terrorists. In the ensuing firefight, one soldier sustained splinter/ricochet injury in the foot. The soldier was evacuated to 439 Field Hospital, Awantipura. Meanwhile, due to the indiscriminate firing by the terrorist, the gas godown in the vicinity of the target house caught fire, leading to multiple explosions. Considering the safety of civilian life, the Army and the JKP tried to douse the fire by use of water bowsers and foam sprinklers, simultaneously maintaining an impregnable cordon. LPG cylinder fire was doused by the Fire Fighting team security forces, thus preventing loss to the property of neighbouring houses.
Later it has been reported that contact was re-established and a second terrorist was also neutralised owing to accurate fire of the troops. On search of the encounter site, two AK series rifles, Grenades and other warlike stores were recovered.
The JKP identified the neutralised terrorists as Md Shafi Ganie, resident of Welsbatapura, Kulgam and Mohammad Asif Wani resident of Takiya, Kulgam. Both the terrorists were members of Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist group.
Despite pathbreaking advances in technology to obviate malfunctioning of machinery, incidents of equipment failure do occur, and helicopters are no exceptions. However, when two military helicopters meticulously maintained by the Pakistan Army Aviation Corps and flown by experienced pilots go down in as many months, something does seem amiss. The fact that both these supposed ‘accidents’ occurred in the restive Balochistan further raises suspicions that it may not have been due to mechanical failure or pilot error.
On 1 August, a Pakistan Army helicopter carrying Quetta 12 Corps Commander General Safraz Ali and five others [including two pilots] crashed in Musa Goth-Windar area of Balochistan’s Lasbela, and Pakistan Army’s media wing Inter Services Public Relations [ISPR] promptly announced that it was an “accident”. However, in a statement issued by Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar [BRAS], an umbrella organisation of Baloch armed rebel groups fighting against occupational Pakistan Army, its spokesperson Baloch Khan tweeted, “Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) accepts responsibility for targeting Pakistani helicopter and killing six senior military officials of the enemy forces”.
ISPR rubbished this claim made by BRAS and it was largely accepted that the August 1 helicopter crash could have been an accident. However, it was ISPR’s tweet that the helicopter “Accident occurred due to bad weather as per initial investigations,” which raised doubts regarding the veracity of this declaration, because though the sky may have been overcast on that day, from an aviator’s perspective, it was definitely not ‘bad weather’. Furthermore, unless there’s an operational emergency or any other inescapable urgency, helicopters don’t fly in bad weather, especially with corps commanders on board.
Baloch Liberation Army [BLA] has claimed that its cadres had shot down the helicopter that crashed near Khost area in Balochistan’s Harnai district. Its press release of September 26 reads, “Last night freedom fighters of Baloch Liberation Army arrested two personnel of Pakistan military in an intelligence-based operation near Zardaalo, an area in Harnai. Later, Pakistani helicopters arrived in the area. Baloch freedom fighters shot down at least one helicopter near Khost, Harnai, approximately 5 kilometres away from the area where Pakistani personnel were arrested. ….”
Secondly, while Pakistan Army’s aviation corps accords due emphasis to operational night flying training in Balochistan, yet it doesn’t venture into ‘no-go’ areas like the Khost area of Harnai district since its rugged mountainsides are teeming with Baloch armed groups. In fact the influence that Baloch armed groups wield in this area can be gauged from the fact that it was here that its armed freedom fighters brazenly established a ‘checkpost’ on the main road and abducted Lt Col Laiq Baig Mirza and his cousin on July 12 this year. So, if this helicopter was indeed carrying out a routine night training “flying mission” in this area, then someone up the military ladder needs to explain why were six young army men unnecessarily exposed to avoidable danger!
Lastly, from the accoutrements visible in the photos of the deceased passengers released by ISPR, it is evident that at least two of them [Subedar Abdul Waheed and Havildar Muhammad Imran] belonged to Special Services Group [SSG], Pakistan Army’s elite commando force. So, even if the helicopter was on a routine “flying mission”, as claimed by ISPR, what were two SSG commandos doing on board in the middle of the night? This inexplicable anomaly gives further credibility to the BRAS claim that this downed helicopter was one of the two attempting an operation to rescue some abducted security force personnel. Furthermore, since this Helicopter crash site [according to BLA] was “approximately 5 kilometres away from the area where Pakistani personnel were arrested,” the downed helicopter being here fits into the scheme of things.
So, it’s quite possible that Baloch freedom fighters had abducted one/two FC (Frontier Corps) personnel near the Khost area of Balochistan and the Pakistan Army had employed the SSG to launch a rescue operation at night and used two helicopters for this purpose. The helicopter that crashed was presumably the leading one [‘path finder’] and was only carrying a two-man squad comprising a junior commissioned and a non-commissioned officer. This ‘buddy pair’ were in all probability, tasked to slither down the hovering helicopter by using ropes to find the location of a suitable and safe spot where the next helicopter could similarly disgorge the balance of the rescue team that it was transporting.
Being launched by the SSG, it must have been a well-planned operation; the pilot and co-pilot too would have been especially selected on the basis of their experience and flying skills. Since BLA is not known to be in possession of anti-aircraft missiles, it seems that things went awry, either because BLA fighters were expecting a heliborne rescue operation, or it was just happenstance that the ill-fated helicopter came close enough for the BLA fighters to shoot it down. Whatever be the reason, the truth of this crash that of August 1, which consumed a dozen lives will never be known?
Post script: In his well-researched book ‘The Way of the Knife: The CIA, a Secret Army, and a War at the Ends of the Earth’, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Mark Mazzetti mentions how in 2004, Gen Pervez Musharraf allowed CIA to undertake drone operations on Pakistani soil as he “did not think it would be difficult to keep up the ruse,” because according to him, “In Pakistan, things fall out of the sky all the time.”
So, could it be that Rawalpindi is passing-off the recent helicopter crashes in Balochistan as mere ‘accidents’, just to “keep up the ruse”? And does PTI leader Fawad Chaudhary cryptic observation- “Heli flying is getting dangerous, this needs engineering evaluation, too many crashes …,” indicate that not everyone believes the ISPR’s ‘accident’ theory?
Though it is painful to think that the realization came home to the Jammuites nearly fifty years after the departure of Maharaja Hari Singh, nevertheless, taking into account the vengeful attitude of Nehru towards the Maharaja, and the anti-Maharaja animus having percolated down the ranks of Congress leadership in New Delhi, it is praiseworthy for the Modi government to have set right a wrong his predecessors had done.
Those well acquainted with the Sheikh Abdullah-led four-decade-long anti-Maharaja Hari Singh agitation in Kashmir, viciously miss-named as the ‘freedom movement’, know that the NC and its leadership left no stone unturned to paint the Maharaja in the darkest colour. He was handed over all negative characteristics like a tyrant, a bloodsucker, a rank autocrat and oppressor and what not. Painting him in black colour was tantamount to painting the entire Dogra society as persecutors and oppressors.
The NC movement originated from the mosques in the valley and Hazratbal in Srinagar shrine had become the workshop of the agitators where their leaders frequently brainwashed them.
Sheikh Abdullah’s secularist tantrum ( Sher-I Kashmir ka kya Irshad/ Hindu, Muslim, Sikh Ittihad) was a strategic masterstroke that befooled one and all connected with Kashmir politics. It was meant to counter the J&K Muslim Conference which was led by the Mirwaiz House in the valley. Although the Sheikh was a protégée of the same house yet he found that if he was to grab the supreme leadership of Kashmiris, he needed to oppose the Mirwaiz House politically.
The second facet of the masterstroke was the Sheikh’s tremendous success in convincing Nehru of his ‘secularist’ credentials. Both were playing ball with each other. The Sheikh was paving the way for Kashmir Sultanate and Nehru was angling for Kashmir’s inclusion into the Indian Union but at the same time trying to tell the world that he was a liberal to the hilt and did not oppose Kashmir enjoying outright autonomy.
The Sheikh was the main instrument in creating distance between the Maharaja and Nehru. The anti-Dogra narrative used by him in his public rallies in the valley was repeated by him during his meetings with Nehru. Unfortunately, those were not the days of advanced IT so the lies and canards carried by the Sheikh to his idealistic friend could have been contradicted at the spur of the moment.
The Maharaja found a sympathiser in the Deputy Prime Minister of India, Sardar Patel, whom Nehru thought a diehard Hindu nationalist not sympathetic to the Muslim community of India. The ideological and political differences between Nehru and the Sardar beggar no elucidation. Go through the entire corpus of correspondence between the Maharaja and the Sardar, and you will gain a peep into the tripartite relations between Nehru, Sardar and the Maharaja.
Despite the Maharaja’s request to Gandhi and the Sardar to dissuade Nehru from visiting Kashmir in the early summer of 1947, Nehru stubbornly brushed aside the counsel of the two top leaders and headed towards J&K. At the border between J&K and Punjab somewhere near Kohala, Nehru was stopped from proceeding to Srinagar and was detained for some hours in a rest-house. On urgent summon by Congress President Maulana Azad, Nehru returned to Delhi. Nehru never forgave the Maharaja for doing something which the law of the land required the Maharaja to do.
For 12 long years, the British colonisers of India put Nehru behind the bars for agitating against the Raj. When independence was won, Nehru clean brushed the memory of twelve years of imprisonment by the British and invited the last Viceroy to be India’s first Governor General. Try to understand the poison of vengeance in the head of the man.
The true Sheikh unfolded on 8-9 August 1953, when the he was removed and arrested for treason. He had been bargaining with the American agencies for the Sultanate of Kashmir. The promises made by the Americans were grandiose including the establishment of a colony of twenty-five thousand American settlers in the valley.
On 26 October 1947, in the aftermath of the invasion of tribal lashkars on Kashmir, and India’s military intervention, Nehru took away power from the hands of the benign ruler of Kashmir and handed it over to a wily, unscrupulous egomaniac Muslim leader of the valley allowing him all autocratic powers to trample the minority community under his iron heels. The Maharaja who had signed the instrument of accession began to be humiliated, despised and hated. His litanies of complaints depicting the autocratic dispensation with which the Sheikh carried out his administration went to the dustbin. The Sheikh wanted his physical removal from the State. An agreement between Nehru, Sheikh Abdullah and the Maharaja was arrived at to let the Maharaja go out of the State for six months, after which the issue of his rehabilitation in the State would be considered. The ink on this agreement had hardly dried up when the
Sheikh launched a tirade against the Maharaja demanding that he be deposed and sent away from the State. With the proud Dogra blood in his veins, the Maharaja left his native state and encamped in Mumbai never to return to his native land.
A few days ago Dr Karan Singh, also the Yuvraj, said that his role in the Congress was zero and he was almost side-lined by the organization. Nobody should have any remorse nor Yuvraj himself. He has failed to prove his mettle as the offspring of a house of rulers who created the modern state of Jammu and Kashmir not through trickery, chicanery or appeasement but through the valour and bravery of a soldier and a swordsman.
When his father was so ignominiously driven out of his State, he sheepishly accepted to be the ‘Sadr-e Riyasat’ of a State where everybody including his clansmen did not approve of him accepting a rubber stamp status. Then came the time when he had to give up that position and he took to politics and fought election for parliament membership. He had still the hard core of the Dogra constituency with him out of emotions of course, and he was returned to the Parliament where he rubbed shoulders with those who deposed his father and sent him on an exile. Where did his sense of pride evaporate in thin air? In further mundane thinking and action he sent one of his sons to the NC and the other to BJP to rub shoulders with every Tom, Dick and Harry. The sheen of royalty was surrendered as a result of avarice and greed. Unfortunately, there is lack of self-pride and renunciation in the progeny to stand head and tail above everybody else to convey to the world that the royal blood runs in their veins.
The Congress has shunted him out as happens with all those who are bereft of the virtue of renunciation. And now before every passer-by, he laments that he has been thrown out by the Congress after fifty years of service. We respect him as a learned scholar of Hindu studies. But we have a question. Are the Hindu shastras so flimsy as not to inculcate in him the eternal truth in the philosophy of renunciation (tyaga) especially when one enters the banparasta stage?
First, the selective killings of the Hindus and Sikhs in Kashmir, and then “sar tan se juda” monstrosity of Theo-fascists at some places in India, all point to a shift in the tactics of Ghazvatu’l Hind mission as stipulated in some books of Islamic tradition (hadith).
The operation Ghazavatu’l Hind (meaning the Indian campaign) was temporarily slowed down by its operatives for some reasons. As the Taliban rule was getting stabilized in Kabul and Pakistan is slipping into a state of economic chaos and lawlessness — a situation which the TTP cherish — the masterminds of the Ghazavatu’l Hind plan accelerated the operation of brutalities.
The murder of identified Hindus in Udaipur, Amravati, and other places is not an isolated incident although the criminals would wish the Indian security authorities and policy planners remain bandaged in that delusion. Investigating agencies are gradually removing the layer after layer of a conspiracy that shrouds these murders. For example, one of the strategies adopted by the Ghazava Ansars could be establishing a countrywide network of Dawat-e-Islami, the new Pakistan-based Islamic organization, with a specific agenda of unleashing terror in entire India through the indoctrinated Indian Muslim youth. It may be reminded that sometimes back, there was much talk about Ghazavatu’l Hind in Islamic circles and this writer had scripted a column on the subject.
Pakistan Army soldiers shouting Islamist slogans along with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik cadre in Islamabad. (File photo)
Islamists fervently pursuing the resurgence of radicalized Islam (which they label as puritanical Islam) strongly argue that their scriptures categorically enjoins upon the puritans to efface from the surface of the earth the last vestiges of kufr, meaning apostasy/ idolatry, especially in India. They are asked to believe that the orthodox Islamic faith, culture and sharia must prevail through the teachings of the scriptures.
However, some Muslim scholars are of the view that violence against other faiths like Hinduism or Judaism, is not recommended anywhere in the Islamic scriptures. They bring the onus of the aberrations like these to the doorsteps of the half-literate mullahs and the Islamic clergy guided by self-aggrandizement. The clash between the orthodoxy and liberalism in Islam has been as old as Islam itself. But because the orthodoxy made use of brute force and politicized Islam to stifle the voice of liberalism, the latter always remained subdued and passive. A major portion of Islamic history is the unending struggle between the two ideologies.
Under this classification, those who do not indulge in violence always say that all Muslims cannot be branded as violent, terrorists and criminals. But to their dismay, this argument cannot have many takers. The fact is that if the majority of the Muslims are rationalists and only a handful of their community are misguided hypocrites, then they should have mustered the courage to weed out the pretentious elements from society. We have never heard crowds of righteous Muslims coming out on the streets and announcing resistance to the fascist elements in society. But there is no example of mass protest by the rationalist and humanist Muslims in any part of the world though some outstanding personalities like Kamal Ataturk of Turkey and Reza Shah Pahlavi of Iran had tried to set an example when in power. Once they were out, orthodoxy returned with a bang. It means that by their inaction the so-called rationalists among the Muslims advertently or inadvertently lend support to the upholders of Theo-fascism.
The extremists and radicals among the Muslims consider it their religious duty to join the jihad against the idol-worshippers in India because they feel Islam is under threat as long as idolatry exists no matter howsoever docile, passive and non-violent these idolaters are. Don’t forget that a champion of theirs had the temerity to say publicly that “the Hindu terrorism is the most dangerous of all terrors.” They consider the time suited for undertaking the mission of Ghazavatu’l Hind; they have already started it. This is what the madrasas teach the young kids who ultimately grow with a particular mindset in which the elements of hatred and violence enjoy primacy.
Muslim women at the anti-CAA protest site at Shaheen Bagh in New Delhi. (File photo)
Indian policy planners are under a misconception that the pro-ghazava forces may plan an onslaught on the Hindus of India resembling the one they unleashed in Kashmir in 1990. In such a situation, they think that the state security and defence apparatus will come into action. This is wrong thinking. The Islamists have very carefully calculated what strategy has to be employed when and where. For example, General Zia’s theory was to bleed India by a thousand cuts. Although he was a General trained in a modern military academy, he eschewed direct attack on India and devised a strategy that worked fairly well.
A proxy war is one of the viable strategies which the state of Pakistan has adopted for use against India. Once, General Musharraf said that the Indian Muslims are our crucial asset for the implementation of a proxy war against India. This was a grandiose strategy and Pakistan’s intelligence agency worked on it in good time. The Ghazavatu’l Hind and its latest version called Dawat-e-Islami are the variants of the changed strategy. Taqiya or camouflaging is another essential component of the new strategy and Theo-fascists use it successfully. In the same strain “denial” is another strong instrument very much in use to promulgate the Ghaazva mission. So pervasive is the denial theory that President Trump in a tweet in 2018 wrote, “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give a haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan.”
Pakistan will never fight India face to face. It will resort to subversion at various levels and in various forms. Penetrating various institutions of the State including the critical ones like the Atomic Energy, Space Centres, departments of some selected ministries, judiciary, police, intelligence, cyber technologies, foreign missions etc. is very much under its focus. The mosques, its Imams, Muslim religious or political leadership and numerous so-called Islamic welfare institutions and NGOs, all are under their radar. Spreading terror to cow down state functionaries from discharging their duty without fear and favour is reflected in the threat letters that have begun to be sent to a large number of people. Imagine the impact of terror that even the judges of the Supreme Court and lower courts feel pressurized to give verdicts against their conscience. This is the vast game of subversion and it succeeds because it is not challenged; because the Indian State is lost in the pretentious slogans of non-violence and peaceful coexistence. Imagine when two judges of the Indian Supreme Court issued a verdict that the beheading of Kanhaiya in Udaipur was the result of Nupur Sharma’s derogatory statement, the Taliban in Kabul issued a statement appreciating the Indian Supreme court’s verdict and comments. Imagine how the Supreme Court of the world’s largest democracy allowed itself to be ridiculed.
Radical Mullahs control the minds of a very large section of Indian Muslims. (Cartoon: News Intervention)
The most dangerous and unfortunate part of this anti-India Herculean mission is that a section of Indian citizenry, (apart from the non-Sanatan community), is treacherously supporting the Theo-fascists for their wicked designs against the Indian state not out of any conviction but to see that the Modi government is toppled and then the chaos follows. Their machinations are in no way inferior or less effective than those of the prime actors of Ghazava. Some sections of media including television channels vie with one another in denigrating the Indian state. It should not be forgotten that most of these rabidly anti-national elements serve the purpose of the deep state and all-powerful international agencies who, through money and muscle power, want to control the globe and give direction to the events according to their choice. The rise of India as a military and economic power through strong policies like “atmanirbhar” is a red rag to the bull. The Shaheen Bagh event, Delhi riots, Kisan agitation, Agniveer agitation, hijab agitation and now “sar tan se juda” monstrosity, all drew inspiration from the global anti-India network. The scuttling of FTA between India and the UK, the defeat of Donald Trump in the previous election, the resignation of the British PM Boris Johnson and the assassination of Shinzo Abe (the brain behind Quad-4), all these events carry a common thread. In this vast ocean of perfidies and conspiracies, PM Modi stands like an immovable rock drawing strength from the support and love of his people who form one-fifth of the world’s population.
The Dawat-e-Islami, in combination with other lashkars raised on the soil of Pakistan, have been busy spreading their network in many parts of India from east to west and north to south. Thanks to India’s freedom of speech developed through digital connectivity, these modules have clandestinely got connected not only to their mentors in Pakistan but also to others in different parts of the world especially those in the category of fundraisers and military strategists. The term Ghazavatu’l Hind has become a household word for almost the Indian Muslims wherever they are.
The investigating agencies are just concluding that the Islamists are adopting uniform patterns, other than man-to-man confrontation, to advance the Islamic agenda in India. The undercurrent of Ghazvatu’l Hind/Dawat-e-Islami runs in all Islamic communities irrespective of the fact whether they feign friendship with India or not. This has been amply proved in the Nupur Sharma case.
How is the Indian State responding to this situation? This is the crucial question. Indian authorities do not understand the tsunami of Theo-fascism ready to overrun India. Right from the times of the Shaheen Bagh episode to the beheading of Kanhaiyalal in Udaipur, there have been recurring Islamic uprisings in this country. The idiom of the activists of these upsurges is not indigenous but imported one. Reports of inquiry committees invariably identify the miscreants but the authorities seldom divulge what punishment has been given or not given to the culprits. It is kept a secret out of the fear of displeasing the vote bank chapter. Be sure the Theo-fascist tsunami will overrun India if Indian policy planners do not dump the vote bank theory in the dustbin. The Indian government feels that its penal code and other laws are sufficient to deal with this threatening scenario. It has to change its mindset. It has to learn that an extraordinary political and social challenge needs extraordinary corrective measures and laws. It has to learn the language that Theo-fascists understand. France presents an example. She has closed the Islamic seminaries; she has imposed restrictions on sermons delivered in the mosques; she has set the heaviest fines and imprisonment on those intending to spread religious violence. India has also to learn from the Chinese experience in Xinjiang. Muslim countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and others have given a clean chit to China for her treatment of the Uyghur Muslims. India needs to curtail the freedoms given to law-breakers. India has to hold OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) responsible for whetting up the anti-state attitude of Indian Muslims.
Baloch, Sindhi, Kurds and Uyghurs came together at a conference in Berlin organized by the Baloch National Movement (BNM) on September 19 to share their plight and to wake up the world regarding ongoing atrocities and systematic genocide in their respective homelands.
BNM chairman Dr. Naseem Baloch said that under forceful Pakistani occupation the most compelling issue faced by Baloch is of “enforced disappearances” and the “kill and dump policy”, including the recent fake encounters by the Pakistani regime. “…in the recent sit-in protests at Shaal (Quetta) Balochistan, we saw sisters and mothers of the enforced disappeared persons with their infant children. We saw weak and ill children without shoes, their mothers holding them in one hand and holding a mic in the other hand, crying for their loved ones,” explained Dr Naseem Baloch.
Dr. Lakho Lohana, the secretary general of the World Sindhi Congress said that Pakistan was built on the denial of nations that have identities spanning thousands of years and that evolved through thousands of years old socio-political history. Pakistan has suppressed these nations. “The Pakistan Army controls all institutions and is the sole power holder. The state of Pakistan has been looting the resources of Sindhi, Baloch and Saraiki people. The recent floods can be associated with climate change, but Pakistan has made it worse by denying them the right to live….in Sindh, people are dying of hunger and diseases; this is intentional genocide.”
In the first session at the Berlin conference Sindhi intellectuals and secretary general of the World Sindhi Congress Dr. Lakho Luhana, president of World Uyghur Congress Dolkun Isa, Kurdish political leader Mako Qoçgîrî and junior joint secretary of Baloch National Movement (BNM) Hasan Dost Baloch addressed the audience.
Baloch, Sindhi, Uyghur and Kurds at the BNM conference in Berlin, Germany on September 19, 2022. (Photo: News Intervention)
President of the World Uyghur Congress Dolkun Isa said that we are Muslims, but we are not allowed to perform our religious rituals in China. Dolkun Isa said China does not allow the Uyghurs to greet each other in an Islamic way. “We are not allowed to say “Salam” to each other and we are not allowed to keep fast. We cannot choose Islamic names for our children like Muhammad, Ahmed, etc the state of China has forced people, even more than 60 years old people to change their Islamic names.”
In the second session of the conference, the chairman of the Baloch National Movement (BNM), Dr. Naseem Baloch, renowned scholar and author Dr. Ayisha Siddiqa, historian Dr. Naseer Dasthi and Bibi Gul, the chairperson of the Human Rights Council of Balochistan, addressed the conference. BNM central committee member Faheem Baloch gave a presentation on the situation in Balochistan, while Samul Baloch, vice president of the BNM Germany chapter, moderated the session.
”We are indirectly fighting against China, the ally of Pakistan. We are fighting against its presence in Gwadar. Our success means safeguarding the interests and way of life of many other minorities who are bound to fall prey to Chinese hegemony. Apart from the exploitation of our natural resources, the Chinese presence on the Strait of Hormuz in Gwadar Port is bound to have negative economic and military effects on this region and the world. Earlier, Pakistan was alone in inflicting atrocities on the Baloch, Pashtuns, Sindhis and in Gilgit-Baltistan but now it has got an expansionist and aggressive partner in the form of China. China has joined hands to carry on the Baloch genocide. Their main purpose is to exploit the resources of Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh and Balochistan,” explained BNM chairman Dr Naseem Baloch at the conference.
Well-known author Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa said, “We need to broaden the definition of ‘enforced disappearance’, explore its causes and objectives and identify its various forms. What is disappeared, who is disappeared. I know many of you are sitting here whose loved ones are disappeared. The state tends to silence people. No state has the right to deprive the people of their land; no state has the right to deprive people of their heritage. It is fierce. We should come together against any form of disappearance.”
Dr Ayesha Siddiqa added: “Look, an elected member of his people Ali Wazir, who had got bail but could not come out and is still in jail. This is what I mean by a form of disappearance by silencing the voice of people. Disappearances in the Pakistani state context have a broader connotation. The more extensive definition of disappearance is the criminal silencing people and shutting down what they want for their lives and lands.”
Historian Dr. Naseer Dashti said Pakistan would become bankrupt in the next two years. As soon as Pakistan becomes bankrupt, the vandalism process will accelerate, and other countries will no longer support it financially. The collapse of Pakistan is certain. That is for sure and no one can change.
Dr Naseer Dashti added that in these circumstances the role of Baloch leadership and political cadre is very important. “Even here we made a mistake like our elders who thought Britain would provide them weapons to fight against Pakistan. While the truth was that Pakistan was occupying Balochistan with the encouragement of Britain. If we repeat our mistakes, we would lose our freedom even in these situations in case Pakistan collapsed.” He explained that the British government formed the Muslim League. After World War II, the world conditions changed, and the colonies were forced to leave. “The biggest colonial power here was Britain, which liberated its colonies in such a way that the conditions have not improved.”
Dr. Naseer Dashti further explained that because the Soviet Union became a world power, the discovery of oil in the Gulf countries and the fear of the communist forces in China becoming powerful, Britain violated its Standstill Agreement with Balochistan and took away the independence of Balochistan and handed it over to Pakistan.
President of the World Uyghur Congress Dolkun Isa said millions of Uyghur children were separated from their parents to deprive them of their identity. “Since 1949, millions of people have been killed by Chinese forces and women have been raped.”
Dolkun Isa also criticized the silence of Muslim countries on Chinese atrocities on the Uyghurs. “The world’s Muslim countries are silent because their economic interests are more important than humanity. Pakistan and China have formed a league to usurp the natural resources of Uyghur and Baloch under the CPEC route.”
Kurdish political expert Mako Qoçgîrî of Sevka Azad highlighted the division of Kurdish nation between the three nation states and the problems faced by Kurds due to this division. “Our aim and goal is the democratization of the region. Today we are working with all the peoples of the region who are fighting for democracy and freedom. We see it as our responsibility to promote the struggle for democracy and freedom throughout the region. This is also the reason why today Turkey, as well as other international powers, are fighting against our movement. They see our project as a threat to their power structures.”
On this occasion, Hasan Dost Baloch, junior joint secretary of the Baloch National Movement (BNM) said that Pakistan occupied Balochistan in 1948. Until now, millions of people have been killed and forcibly disappeared. The trend of suicide has increased in Balochistan. They are committing suicide because of their treatment in torture cells. There they were treated in such a way that after their release they felt they were no longer fit to live in society.
Dr Naseem Baloch said: “China has vast experience in exploitation and genocide from Tibet to East Turkestan, from Hongkong to Taiwan, China is a country that has no respect for human rights and humanity in its own country. More than two million Uyghur Muslims suffer in their concentration camps. Our national movement is a liberation movement from Pakistani occupation. We believe our liberation movement is an inspiration for the oppressed people of the entire region. Not only because we are fighting against Pakistan the center of world terrorism but also we are fighting for the survival of cultural diversity, empowerment of nations and the rights of the oppressed ethnic minorities in the region.”
Ayesha Siddiqa said that the Baloch need to connect with other nations that are jointly suffering in the same territory that we now call Pakistan. “Pakistan was based on the old European history formula. The formula was that the identity has to be deliberately concocted, even if you are Baloch and even if I am a Saraiki. From the first day, Pakistan has been struggling to form a common national identity.”
Thirty-two years and nine months after the separatist militants imposed ‘blanket ban’ on all forms of entertainment and enforced the same with guns and grenades, the valley of Kashmir is getting the cinema back. Kashmir’s first multiplex, raised by a prominent politico-business family in collaboration with Inox, is being thrown open on Tuesday, 20 September, by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha.
The multiplex with three auditoriums of 520 seats, each with the value addition of Dolby Atmos sound system and state-of-the-art celluloid screen, has come up in the Shivpora neighbourhood of Srinagar where the old famous Broadway stood for decades. Broadway, a business venture of the veteran politician and one-time Home Minister Durga Prasad Dhar’s and Lala Tirath Ram Alma’s families, was among the 14 cinema theatres shuttered down under the guerrilla diktat on 31 December 1989.
A well-concerted campaign against cinema, beauty parlours, music cassette kiosks, wine shops and everything that was perceived and labelled as “un-islamic” by the Islamists actually began after the Islamic revolution in Iran in February 1979. It was the time when the Jamaat-e-Islami backed military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq got Zulfikar Ali Bhutto executed in Pakistan. The first slogan for an “Iran-type revolution” in Kashmir came out from the founder of the Islami Jamiat Tulaba (IJT), Sheikh Tajamul Islam.
Then Chief Minister and President of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah described IJT, JeI’s student wing, as a “serious threat” to peace and harmony in Kashmir and got it banned by the Centre. The NC’s cadre didn’t cede ground to IJT or JeI. In April 1979, when Bhutto was hanged to death, NC’s Lashkar ransacked and set on fire scores of the JeI-dominated villages in South Kashmir. Tens of thousands of the apple trees in orchards were felled by the mobs.
The situation began changing after Sheikh Abdullah’s death in September 1982. Both JeI and IJT had gained substantial ground by the time Moustapha Akkad’s period film “Lion of the Desert”, a biopic on the anti-colonial Libyan guerrilla hero Omar Mukhtar was screened at Srinagar’s Regal cinema. This was the time when Sheikh, held responsible for strengthening J&K’s accession to India, was publicly demonised and labelled as a villain. This was the time when Shabir Shah of the then Peoples League orchestrated a campaign against the liquor shops in Anantnag; when Asiya Andrabi’s Dukhtaraan-e-Millat mobilized women for dismantling “all evils like cinema and fashion”; when the JeI-dominated Muslim United Front (MUF), mother of today’s ‘Hurriyat Conference’ came into existence.
On 18 August 1989, local newspapers published the Allah Tigers chief ‘Air Marshal’ Noor Khan’s diktat of blanket ban on cinema, wine shops, music cassette kiosks and other ‘evils’. However, the same could not be enforced till the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) forced VP Singh’s government to release five of its key cadres in exchange for the then Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s daughter Rubaiya Sayeed on 13 December 1989. The kidnapping proved a game changer as the celebration of victory by the separatists turned the valley population against India with the slogan of ‘Azadi”. No cinema, wine shop or beauty parlour opened after the “final deadline” of 31 December 1989.In 1990s, security forces set up their camps at Shah Cinema, Firdaus and Sheeraz and some other theatres. Later, some theatres were converted into business complexes and hospitals.
Nine years later– and two years after he returned as Chief Minister– Farooq Abdullah made several attempts to revive cinema in Kashmir. On 7 August 1998, he got Vidhu Vinod Chopra, celebrated film director and a resident of Srinagar, to screen his fresh film ‘Kareeb’ at Broadway. Heroine Neha Bajpai was among a galaxy of the guests. Later, Farooq Abdullah managed to reopen two more theatres–Regal and Neelam– in Srinagar. Even as the militants could not sabotage Broadway, which was situated yards from the main entrance of the Army’s 15 Corps at the Badami Bagh cantonment, they engaged the security forces in an encounter at Neelam. One civilian coming out in a crowd after watching a film at Regal was killed and several others left wounded in a grenade attack. All the three theatres closed down again, this time for a longer period.
Twenty-four years later, LG Sinha is inaugurating Kashmir’s first multiplex at the site of Broadway. Broadway’s owner Vijay Dhar began work on the project after Sinha’s government introduced Jammu and Kashmir’s first film policy in April 2021. The policy promises huge incentives to anybody coming forward to revive cinema, reopen the defunct cinema theatres, set up production and post-production facilities and training centres for artistes, directors and technicians.
Aamir Khan’s current release ‘Laal Singh Chhaddha’, in which the Kashmiri child artist Ahmad Ibn Umar is playing the young Laal and Aamir Khan with Kareen Kapoor is the protagonist, is being screening at the inauguration of Inox. The film has been extensively shot in Ladakh and Srinagar.
“We are eagerly waiting for the inauguration. Reopening of this theatre will take us back to the halcyon days when the educated class would prefer Broadway and the lower middle class would jostle for cheap tickets at Palladium, Naaz, Neelam and Regal”, said Mohammad Saleem Wani, a retired government official. He remembers enjoying from Hollywood film ‘Airport 1975’ to Bollywood hits ‘Kranti’, ‘Kabhi Kabhi’, ‘Roti Kapda aur Makaan’, ‘Ram Lakhan’, ‘Sindoor’, ‘Dharmatma’ and ‘Ram Teri Ganga Meli’ at the old Broadway.
“There are two motives behind this initiative. One is to provide facilities for entertainment to the children and other is to strengthen the bond between Kashmir and the Indian film industry. Kashmir’s relationship with the Indian film industry was too good in the past, so it will be a contribution towards reviving the previous relation,” Vikas Dhar from the owners’ family said last month.
In the 1990s, security forces set up their camps at Shah Cinema, Firdaus and Sheeraz and some other theatres in Srinagar. Later, some theatres were converted into business complexes and hospitals. In addition to 9 theatres in Srinagar, there were half a dozen cinema halls in Anantnag, Baramulla, Sopore, Bandipora and Handwara in Kashmir till 1990.
Kashmir used to be the outdoor shooting hub for Bollywood and other Indian films from 1940 to 1989. MG Ramachandran, J Jayalalitha, Dileep Kumar, Nargis, Shami Kapoor, Shashi Kapoor, Amitabh Bachchan, Rajesh Khanna and Dimple Kapadia were among the top Indian film celebrities who acted in a long list of the Indian movies shot in Kashmir. Even after the closure of cinema, more than 20 Indian films, including Vidhu Vinod Chopra’s ‘Mission Kashmir’ and ‘Shikara’, Vishal Bhardwaj’s ‘Haider’ and Vivek Agnihotri’s ‘Kashmir Files’, were shot in Kashmir.
Part II – Managing India’s Water Crisis expeditiously is Existential, and how can India deter China from her water hegemon actions in Tibet
India, a water scarce country India is in the UN’s Global Drought Vulnerability Index. India’s drought-prone area has increased by 57 percent since 1997. Drought has affected nearly two-thirds of the country from 2020 to 2022. Over the last decade, one-third of India’s districts have experienced more than four droughts, and drought affects 50 million people each year. China and Nepal are upper riparian states for India, which has geo-strategic-political compulsions.
Water Management is a strategic imperative for water scarce India
Water Statistics are Truly Alarming As per Dr Rajiv Kumar, ex Vice Chairman, National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog), in August 2021, the annual available water after evapotranspiration[i] is 1999 billion cubic metres (bcm), of which the utilizable water potential is estimated at 1122 bcm. India is the largest groundwater user in the world, with an estimated usage of around 251 bcm per year, more than a quarter of the global total. With more than 60 per cent of irrigated agriculture and 85 per cent of drinking water supplies dependent on it, and growing industrial/urban usage, groundwater is a vital resource. It is projected that the per capital water availability will dip to around 1400 cum in 2025, and further down to 1250 cum by 2050. A report titled “Composite Water Management Index (CWMI)”[ii], published by NITI Aayog in June 2018, mentioned that India was undergoing the worst water crisis in its history; that nearly 600 million people were facing high to extreme water stress; and about 200,000 people were dying every year due to inadequate access to safe water. The report further mentioned that India was placed at the rank of 120 amongst 122 countries in the water quality index, with nearly 70 per cent of water being contaminated. It projected the country’s water demand to be twice the available supply by 2030, implying severe scarcity for hundreds of millions of people and an eventual loss in the country’s GDP[iii]. Vitally, food security is at risk, given that large agricultural producers (states) are struggling to manage their water resources effectively. On the positive side, greater focus on water governance and increased data discipline amongst states is building a pathway for driving long-term success.
Water scarcity level in India
Even good Monsoons cannot solve India’s water crisis: About 600m Indians (more than 40% of the population), rely on agriculture for their living. A little over half of the country’s farmland is not irrigated, but are watered by the rains. Climate change has made monsoon patterns erratic; for instance, this year Kolkata went 61 days without rain, its longest stretch since 2000. Heavy rain does not penetrate and irrigate the soil, but erodes it, damaging farmland rather than helping crops to flourish. That India’s rainfall is concentrated into shorter periods also means that dry spells are lengthier. That encourages Indians to use groundwater to preserve their crops. Interestingly, a law passed in 1882 gives every landowner the right to use the water under their land as they choose. While the “Green Revolution” made the country a net food exporter, it also led to the widespread construction of tube wells. India now pumps more groundwater than America and China put together. Last year a study in Science Advances found that by 2025 large portions of north-western and southern India will have “critically low groundwater availability.” [iv]
The Government is moving but very slowly For scientific management of water ecosystem, the Ministry of Jal Shakti (by merging the Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation, and Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation) was created in May 2019 to consolidate interrelated functions pertaining to water management. It has earmarked $45bn (INR 3.6 trillion) on the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) to provide safe drinking water to all rural households by 2024. JJM focuses on 1592 water-stressed blocks in 256 districts. Mission is to provide 55 litres of piped water supply per person to every household through the Functional Household Tap Connections scheme with concurrent mandatory source sustainability measures. Primary focus is on 97 lakh households in five priority states of Assam, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal [due to increase in water borne diseases including Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES)]. By working together with the health, education, social justice and housing ministries, the Water Ministry hopes to reduce AES morbidity and mortality. JJM Highlights are at Note(v).
Other State and Non-State Measures Large number of hydroelectrical projects are being taken up in Arunachal Pradesh as run-of-river schemes and would have very negligible impact in triggering floods in downstream areas. Unfortunately, this necessary construction has got embroiled in an incorrect narrative and become a weapon of geopolitics. A mass movement engineered by the Assam-based Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) has demanded a stop to all mega dam projects in the country’s sensitive Northeast. While some of their apprehensions are legitimate, the fact is that this water would not only be a power reservoir for the region, but also for the rest of India. The protest that began in Assam, led by the KMSS, against the construction of mega dams is leading to a conflict between development and environment protection. It is recommended that a feasibility study of the schemes that are being planned must be taken up for the Lohit basin by the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change.
Meanwhile in Punjab, one of India’s leading wheat-producing states (UP is topping the chart last two years with 33% and Punjab 16%), several schemes provide farmers with cash incentives to pump less groundwater. Some states use techniques that are centuries old, harvesting run-off from monsoons and building dams to help replenish groundwater. These traditional efforts may prove more effective than sweeping national schemes, which are hampered by graft and bickering among state governments. India is ‘going digital’, with around 6,000 sensors being installed across India to gather data on lakes, reservoirs and rivers. Another 1,600 sensors will track underground water. All will be connected to the mobile phone network and will transmit real-time data, including water levels and weather conditions such as rainfall, humidity and air pressure. This data will be available on one centralised, web-based system so anyone can use it. Meanwhile software is being developed that can analyse that data and make it useful to decision makers. Marcella D’Souza from the Watershed Organisation Trust says such local projects are the key to managing India’s water resources. “The water situation is complex and no single agency can handle it alone,” she concludes “It is the responsibility of the local community and gram panchayats [village councils] to share the resources, to work together to protect their precious water resource. They need to be empowered with knowledge so as to make informed decisions.”
China-India Riparian States: Chinese actions on Tibet Autonomous Region Rivers specially Yarlung Tsangpo and Implications for India
Source: preventionweb.net
Image: A line map of the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend, showing previous Chinese dams constructions (in bold) and the proposed site of the newest 60-gigawatt hydropower project at Metog (Source: South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People)
This paragraph is a recapitulation of what was written in Part I. The damming of the Brahmaputra started during November 2010, with the 7.9 billion RMB 3260-meter Zangmu Hydropower Station 510 MW, which became fully operational on October 13, 2015. China has undertaken a huge project to construct five dams in Shannan Prefecture in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). The precise locations of the project are reportedly in Gyatsa, Jieuxu, Langzhen, Zangmu, and Zhongda in the TAR. The dams are slated to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung-Tsangpo in Tibet) to China’s water-scare North-western and Northern provinces. China adopted its 14th Five-Year Plan, which included a blueprint amounting to billions of dollars’ worth of projects, including controversial hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra in the TAR. China is embarking upon ambitious “dam-constructing exercises” on all its important rivers. The familiar Three Gorges Project across the Yangtze River is one such project.[vi]
Importance of River Brahmaputra to India: Apart from providing existential water to India, River Brahmaputra also provides–
Hydroelectricity. According to the Central Electricity authority, the Brahmaputra River basin possesses about 44 per cent of India’s total hydropower potential. It is assessed that the ‘exploitable hydropower potential’ of the Brahmaputra basin is 58,356 MW out of the overall hydro-electric potential of India estimated to be around 150,000 MW.
Means of Livelihood: Obvious and not being elaborated.
Inland River Waterways: It has immense potential of providing easy and cheap communication networks and accessibility within the North-eastern states and also up to Chittagong in Bangladesh.
Should the lower Riparian States especially India be Worried? The plan to divert the waters of Brahmaputra would affect over 140 million people who are dependent on the river. Indeed, it would be India and Bangladesh that would have to bear the brunt of the planned damming and diversion. There is great apprehension that the diversion of the waters would affect the downstream flow in Northeast India and beyond. Li Chaoyi, the chief engineer of China Huaneng Group, which is the prime contractor of the dam project, said that the river’s flow would not be affected by the construction of the dam. Quoted in the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, Li stated, “After it becomes operational, the river water will flow downstream through water turbines and sluices. So, the water volume downstream will not be cut.” He also stated that environmental protection would be a priority. Nevertheless, the issue of the dam remains a cause of great concern for India and has been taken up at the highest levels including the Foreign Secretary level since 2010.
Figure: Isohyet map showing the distribution of precipitation in the Yarlung Tsangpo / Brahmaputra basin at the Great Bend and adjacent areas, and annual discharge at three points along the course of the river. [Map prepared by Ghosh et al. (2019), based on Bookhagen’s compilation of TRMM data – 1998 to 2009]
Experts have concluded that hydrology and precipitation over the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra are highly correlated, and in fact the contribution of snow and glacial melt to the flow is substantially low in the overall stretch; however, its contribution is higher in the upper reaches of the flow which are in the rain-shadow region. Of the total 2,880 kilometres (k.m.) length of the Yarlung Tsangpo/ Brahmaputra, 1,625 k.m. flows through the Tibetan plateau with the name Yarlung Tsangpo, whereas it assumes the names of Siang, Dihang, and Brahmaputra in its 918 k.m. in India, and the rest of the 337 k.m. in Bangladesh is named the Jamuna till its confluence with the Ganges near Goalando. Though this geographical distribution of length gives an apparent impression that the maximum flow of the system occurs in the TAR (Tibet Autonomous Region) of China, it is a myth! Rather, the system becomes stronger and fatter as it flows further downstream. It needs to be noted here that the Brahmaputra is identified as the flow downstream of the confluence of three tributaries, namely the Luhit, Dibang, and Dihang, near Sadiya in the Indian state of Assam.[vii] While the peak flows at Nuxia and Tsela Dzong measuring stations at the great bend in the Tibetan plateau are about 5,000 and 10,000 cubic metres per second (cumecs), the peak flow at Guwahati in Assam is approximately 55,000 cumecs. Thus, as per one scientific interpretation; rainfall creates the flow and given the precipitation, run-off and sediment flow regimes, it is unlikely that any intervention on the Yarlung Tsangpo in the north region of the Himalaya can cause any substantial harm for downstream economies including India and Bangladesh, irrespective of Chinese intent.[viii]
However, the same cannot be stated for the present proposed project in the Medog county of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) Indian research suggests that the region, entailing the Great Bend at the intersection of the basins of Yigong Tsangpo, Parlung Tsangpo, and the Lower Yarlung, exhibit events like high monsoonal precipitation, strong possibilities of landslides and avalanches leading to flash floods with the average annual frequency of such hazardous events being 10 or more. Further even Medog witnesses 12-15 such incidents on an average. The biggest concern is its unpredictable tectonicity as is prevalent in large parts of Eastern Himalayan system. Therefore, any such event resulting in any form of dam burst or otherwise can have disastrous impacts on the immediate downstream particularly Arunachal Pradesh which will most likely experience sudden flooding.
What can India Do? There is no international law or mechanism where such a right can be defended against actions of upstream countries. Such a defence would be possible if there was a treaty on sharing the common rivers, like the Indus Treaty that India has with Pakistan. But no such treaty exists between India and China on any of the rivers that the two countries share. However, some strategists feel that India should refrain from any knee-jerk reaction specially in the current geo-political climate where trust levels are at its nadir. It could demolish years of progress that has been made by states in establishing mechanisms of hydro-diplomacy. A testament of this is the India-China Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) on Trans-border Rivers and the hydrological data (water level, discharge, and rainfall) sharing agreement that exists between India and China on the Yarlung/Brahmaputra and Langqen/Sutlej, which has continued despite the hostilities at the Line of Actual Control (there was lack of data for a very brief period only).
TS Mehra, a senior official in India’s federal water ministry, told the Reuters news agency, “The need of the hour is to have a big dam in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate the adverse impact of the Chinese dam projects”. He added that this would create a large water storage capacity to offset the effect of Chinese dams on water flows. Moreover, China’s capability and, arguably, the intent to use water as a weapon when required is another aspect India has to be mindful of. India must evolve a strategic road map in concert with other lower riparian and like-minded states and international organisations to ensure that China adheres to the laid down principles, norms and rules on the sharing of trans-border rivers. It has to be ensured that China respects the interests and concerns of lower riparian nations before embarking on trans-border river projects, that have far-reaching and potentially catastrophic effects.[ix]
Conclusion
To achieve water security, there is no choice except to focus on rainwater harvesting, recharge of aquifers, proper storage, and efficient utilization. This conscious thought-process is to be developed in all stakeholders through education and awareness, working from schools and villages upwards. Apart from the JJM initiatives, NITI Aayog in October 2021 has released a compendium on the role of communities in water management, and lists out best practices on: agriculture; groundwater management; watershed development; water infrastructure; and climate risk and resilience. We also need to learn from other countries’ successes, such as Israel which has turned a water crisis into an opportunity even though it receives one-fourth of the rainfall we get in India. Israel is now water secure and its groundwater level is also increasing, due to the adoption of new techniques.
Undoubtedly, water is an existential resource, and many security and geo-political experts predict that unless fair and proper water management is ensured and agreed upon, it has the potential for confrontation between inter and intra states/nations. Apart from the border issue with China, water management in Tibet by China is likely to be a major confrontation point between the two nations. In fact, if both nations do not act responsibly and urgently to ensure water security, it could trigger conflict. For now, India needs to talk to China, coalesce support of affected nations like Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and even Pakistan, as also draw on international support to prevent China from interfering with the flow of rivers in Tibet, which has the potential to cause man-made ecological disasters. In a country that has 18% of the world’s population but just 4% of its water, every drop counts.
[i] Evapotranspiration – the process by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere by evaporation from the soil and other surfaces and by transpiration from plants.
[ii] The CWMI was conceptualized as a tool to instil a sense of cooperative and competitive federalism among the states. This was a first-ever attempt at creating a pan-India set of metrics that measured different dimensions of water management and use across the lifecycle of water. The water data collection exercise was carried out in partnership with the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Ministry of Rural Development, and all the States/Union Territories (UTs). The report was widely acknowledged and provided guidance to States on their success areas, absolutely and relatively, and on recommendations to secure their water future. CWMI 2.0, released in August 2019, ranked various states for the reference year 2017–18 as against the base year 2016–17. Gujarat held on to its first rank in 2017–18, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Amongst North Eastern and Himalayan States, Himachal Pradesh was adjudged on top. The UTs submitted their data for the first time, with Puducherry declared the top ranker. On an average, 80 per cent of the states assessed on the Index over the last three years have improved their water management scores, with an average improvement of +5.2 points. But worryingly, 16 out of the 27 states still score less than 50 points on the Index (out of 100), and fall in the low-performing category. These states collectively account for ~48 per cent of the population, ~40 per cent of agricultural produce, and ~35 per cent of the economic output of India. Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Kerala, and Delhi, 4 of the top 10 contributors to India’s economic output and accounting for over a quarter of India’s population, have scores ranging from 20 points to 47 points on the CWMI.
As per a comprehensive report released on October 2, 2021, the following are the major achievements since 2019: 1. 8.26 crore (43 per cent) rural households (in over 1.16 lakh villages and 79 districts) are getting tap water supply in their homes. 2. 5.03 crore tap water connections provided since the JJM launch. 3. Goa, Haryana, Telangana, A&N Islands, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, and Puducherry have achieved ‘Har Ghar Jal’. 4. 1.22 crore (36.09 per cent) households in socio-economically backward districts are getting tap water supply in their homes, that is, about four times increase in coverage since JJM was announced. 5. 1.15 crore (37.83 per cent) households in 60 identified JE/AES endemic districts are getting tap water supply in their homes, that is, about 15 times increase in coverage since the announcement of JJM. 6. 3.43 lakh Village Water Sanitation Committees/Pani Samitis constituted/made functional. 7. 2.86 lakh Village Adoption Programmes by the National Institute of Food Technology. 8. Entrepreneurship and Management students, prepared and approved in different villages. 9. 7.93 lakh (76.93 per cent) schools and 7.65 lakh (68.21 percent) Anganwadi Centres provided with tap water connections. Skilling JJM provides huge employment opportunities in villages, to successfully implement the Mission and ensure long-term operation and maintenance of in-village water supply systems. To meet this present and future requirement, skilling is a major component to produce a good number of masons, plumbers, electricians, pump operators, etc. Development partners are being engaged by states to prepare modules for sensitization and capacity building in villages. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to reverse migration of skilled and semi-skilled human resources, which can be turned into a mutually beneficial opportunity for the programme and employment opportunities in rural areas. Among the technological interventions, a modern, public, online ‘JJM— Integrated Management Information System’ has been set up for day-to-day planning, implementation, monitoring, and reporting of the national/State/UT/district/village-level progress. Furthermore, to ensure transparency and modern fund management, a Public Finance Management System has been made compulsory under JJM.
Flood hit Pakistan, which is urgently seeking international aid, has made things difficult for aid agencies as it refused to give approval to them for sourcing relief materials from India. Several organisations had urged the Shehbaz Sharif government to allow them to procure relief material from India due to the proximity. Not just that. Islamabad has now denied aid coming in from Bangladesh as well since it feels the move would damage its global image.
“Pakistan Army is reportedly averse to the proposal of aid from Bangladesh as any such relief assistance may undermine Pakistan’s global image,” she said as per local media.
It is ‘politics first’ for the Shehbaz Sharif government even at this hour.
Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif has refrained from seeking any support from India. The government has also continued to vehemently oppose any move to resume imports of essential items including vegetables from India despite Pakistan’s Finance Minister Miftah Ismail’s insistence.
Sharif once again brought in the Kashmir issue even as Pakistan’s economic managers and business community underlined the immediate need to start cross-border trade to contain inflation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, last month, expressed concern and sympathy over the havoc caused by the floods in Pakistan. “Saddened to see the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, the injured and all those affected by this natural calamity and hope for an early restoration of normalcy,” Modi had tweeted.
Pakistan based Dawn said that the country could have attracted “more international assistance with an inclusive policy to manage the ongoing catastrophe.”
The floods in Pakistan, could cost more than $30 billion to the exchequer and it would be a tough task for Islamabad to restore the situation especially since it has shown scant intention of deviating from domestic politics.
While India, sources said, is ready to provide the assistance to the flood ravaged country, Islamabad is yet to take a concrete decision and also “need to shift their stand on Kashmir.”
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