India’s election fervor is gradually reaching
its pinnacle. Amidst all the frenzy, it’s quite apparent that it’s not an easy
election for the voters, irrespective of the candidates parties give or deny
tickets. People are toying between emotions and reality. The choice is not
easy.
However, the election is not devoid of strong
issues. The issues are there but the opposition is unable to articulate it and
the ruling combine is carrying out a vociferous campaign to project itself. For
BJP, the biggest advantage is that in Narendra Modi they have a dynamic person
as prime minister, who devastates all opposition moves. But there is also an
emerging leadership, not so much in the ‘mahagathbandhan’ of opposition parties,
but in the gradual rise of the Congress and the two siblings Priyanka Gandhi
and Rahul Gandhi – soft new faces of Indian politics. They are trying to touch
the core with old Congress linkages of regions, castes and communities. They
are nudging the voters to rethink and have a look at financial, job and other
statistics. They are marching on gradual rise of Congress votes across India. The
Congress now has a government or is part of the government in five states–Punjab,
Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh–with 21 percent of the population,
up from two states with 7 percent population in 2017.
The
BJP leaders are watching every step of the two Congress leaders. They feel that
Congress has only to gain in major states like UP, an old Congress bastion,
where it still has its sympathizers. Somewhere there is also an apprehension
that Priyanka’s “Ganga boat-yatra” through erstwhile Congress bastion, may
impact voters’ minds. Recently, Congress had two major symbolic gains. Amrita
Pandey, who is BJP’s UP president’s daughter-in-law joined Priyanka Gandhi in
Varanasi, a few days after the joining of Manish Khanduri, son of Uttrakhand
BJP leader BC Khanduri. Other opposition parties being fiefdom of
families are less into studying statistics. But Congress is gradually harping
on to it. So far, the onslaught is soft but one that is difficult to ignore.
When it comes to the most pressing issues in the elections,
the scenario is puzzling. With an emotionally-charged campaign, post-Pulwama,
BJP is trying its best to cover up hard issues. The figures, however, are
telling and much of it has come from draft reports of parliamentary committees,
NSSO and CAG. The CAG has pointed out to a huge-off-budget financing of about
Rs 4 lakh crore in 2016-17. It says it could pose fiscal risk in the long term
in case the entity that raises the funds fails to meet debt servicing.
The jobs data row has led to quitting of a top statistician.
As official figures of NSSO, considered reliable, were not available, so figures
of a private organisation, CMIE, got credence. The CMIE says around 31 million
people are unemployed, the highest since October 2016. There are also figures
of male (earlier it were female) workforce reduction. The NSSO’s periodic
labour force survey 2017-18 shows males account for 28.6 crore employed. Since
1993-94 when the male workforce was 21.9 crore it swelled to 30.4 crore in
2011-12. This indicates that fewer male were employed in 2017-18. It reduced
even in rural areas.
In India, the unemployment rate, which measures
the number of people actively looking for a job, has been updated only in this March,
and it was 6.1 percent, up from 3.41 in December 2014. The World Bank reported
it in the latest report. Overall, labour force participation dropped in 2017. Such figures are always a discomfort for the government,
particularly when the elections are around. The government is coming out with
figures of MUDRA loans. The banks, however, find these adding to the NPA and
are reluctant to proffer it. The cash dole, once a strict no for the BJP, of Rs.
6,000 a year to farmers is a mixed bag. Farmers in Western UP and Maharashtra want
that the sugar mills should not sit over their dues of about Rs. 25,000 crore and
pay it. No one, however, denies that the cash dole is a relief
post-demonetisation.
Is there a discontent? Apparently, it is not being noticed.
Nobody is talking about it. The charisma of BJP leadership is covering it up. So,
is the Congress connecting with the rural masses? It is certainly trying, but
its worker base is weak and so is the reach. Wherever possible, it is sending
messages or holding on to people’s issues.
The voter is silent. It does not mean people are not aware of
their problems. This silence could be deceptive. The election is not bereft of
issues. The economic issues are stark. Changing political scenario can make a
difference. It only points to an all-out impending battle. The churning would
help reshape the future.
