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A Chinese virus’s lethal blow on MSME sector

Aditya Vikram Sen
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A Chinese virus’s lethal blow on MSME sector

COVID-19, the world’s most dangerous virus that has put cancer to shame and wrecked both lives and businesses, has damaged something irreparably. The MSME sector.

Worse, the pandemic halted the government’s ability to help the sector in India. In developed nations, governments have directly provided wage subsidies and credit to the stressed firms. The governments could do it because they had an advantage, they could map up the smaller firms. 

In India, most of the MSMEs are not registered. Why? No one has an answer. 

There is a precipitous surge in unemployment that continues to shake the workforce in this pandemic. A key challenge for our policymakers and executives lies in the method in which they can be brought back to work.  Moreover the impact on the value chain has had a cascading effect. They are currently facing an acute cash crunch due to operational challenges with low manpower. The risk of delinquencies also exists for financiers offering unsecured loans to MSMEs, who typically rely on the assessment of the estimated cash flows. 

(Representative photo)

If the current business climate is to continue it would take nearly two months, if not more, for businesses to see significant negative impacts, such as temporary layoffs or temporary or permanent closure. The impact of the pandemic shall also lead to MSMEs facing difficulties to pay bank loans and leasing installments and challenges in paying rent and utility bills.

So what is the alternative. Let’s evaluate some of the points: TREDS (Trade Receivable Discounting System) should be made mandatory for all MSME related transactions as it can improve the flow of working capital of the MSMEs at very competitive interest rates to and by reducing the receivable realization cycles, thereby allowing MSMEs in securing credit from a range of banks.

Also, why not unlock funds under the ESIC (Employment State Insurance Corporation) as medical insurance cover and impart training in occupation, health and safety for MSME manufacturers. 

There is also a greater need for financial incentivization. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to issue guidelines for higher provisioning revisions to banks in the absence of which liquidity injection into the system is getting delayed. The increase in the minimum threshold from Rs. 1 lakh to Rs. 1 crore to initiate corporate insolvency under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) can help those MSMEs that are under financial distress.

Force Majeure is an extraordinary situation beyond human control such as calamities and is described as an ‘act of God’. A Force Majeure clause frees both parties from contractual obligations. Due to the pandemic several MSMEs have not been able to carry out their contractual obligations for which they have been held legally liable. So why not seek an amendment to Section 56 of the Indian Contract to include a state imposed lockdown under Force Majeure.

The change in definition of MSMEs is a significant change as it has brought several smaller companies within the ambit of the MSME Act. And then, digitisation of MSMEs at an accelerated pace will be a crucial element in fast tracking the revival of manufacturing MSMEs. 

Consider this one. The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) has significantly helped those MSMEs that were inactive and has helped them resume their operations by clearing payments to suppliers and paying salaries to employees. And banks must lend more under this scheme to support the smaller companies.

So why not work towards a fixed waiver for raw material, electricity etc. in order to ease the burden of spending. 

In India particularly, these are distressing times for the MSMEs who gloomingly stare at an uncertain future. This is sad, and also unfortunate, ostensibly because time and again MSMEs have been hailed as the backbone of the Indian economy that contributes nearly 29 percent to the GDP.

However, such businesses will find it extremely hard to survive if booster or even for that matter even small steps on a regular basis are not taken on urgent priority to pull them out of current bleak conditions.

It is time for the government to sit up, and smell the coffee. 

Pakistan arrests PTM chief Manzoor Pashteen and other Pashtun leaders

News Intervention Bureau
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Pakistan arrests PTM chief Manzoor Pashteen and other Pashtun leaders

Pakistan arrested popular Pashtun leader Manzoor Pashteen along with other Pashtun leaders Bilal Pakhtun, Idrees Pashteen, and Zohaib on Friday morning. Manzoor Pashteen was on his way to Waziristan to join the Jani Khel sit-in when the Kohat police arrested him. Manzoor Pashteen is the chief of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and has been protesting for the basic human rights of Pashtuns across Pashtunistan.

Mohsin Dahwar, leader of PTM confirmed Manzoor’s arrest in a tweet and said: “Utterly shameful how @ManzoorPashteen has been arrested to try and stop him from joining sit in underway in Jani Khel (Bannu). Dissent is not a crime. Demanding rights is not a crime. Demand his immediate release and of all of PTM’s activists.”

Local Pashtuns across Waziristan said that PTM chief Manzoor Pashteen and other members of the PTM have been arrested by Pakistan only to prevent them from joining the ongoing sit-in in Jani Khel. “They are afraid of the Pashtuns and so they have arrested our leaders. We are not going to bow down to these Panjabi generals,” a local Pashtun said on Facebook.

Social media has been flooded with support to Manzoor Pashteen and other Pashtun leaders arrested by the Pakistanis. Social media activists have condemned the arrest of Manzoor Pashteen and demanded his immediate release.

Afsariab Khatak a senior Pashtun leader said “Arresting PTM leader Manzoor Pashteen in Kohat and stopping him from proceeding to Waziristan for joining the peaceful sit-ins of the locals is part of intensifying repression against PTM because it exposes regrouping of terrorists near Durand Line.”

Baloch student leader Dr Mahrang Baloch condemned Manzoor Pashteen’s arrest in a tweet “Condemn the arrest of @manzoorpashteen. He is just campaigning for peace, he speaks about state brutality and is one of the strong voice for the voiceless people but state doesn’t tolerate him because he exposed war crime and HR violations.”

China’s military offensive against India is part of her larger gambit

Jasbir Sarai
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China’s military offensive against India is part of her larger gambit

The month of May last year (2020) witnessed a belligerent face-off between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. While tensions had been witnessed for quite some time, it was in early May that China moved in to make India a target of its “wolf warrior-diplomacy”. The process started with press statements, harsh articles in its mouthpiece Global Times and accusations against India of unfair trade practices. Once the pressure was built, it moved on to the dispute of the Sino-Indian Border.

China moved in troops, built temporary structures and bunkers, activated airfields and used helicopters. It justified its actions as a response to “illegal constructions of defence facilities across the border into Chinese territory by India.” It kept escalating the tensions amid many meetings on ground between the military commanders of both countries and diplomatic parleys also.

Of significance in the rising tensions was the physical clash between Indian and Chinese troops at Galwan in mid-June. The Chinese troops who initiated the aggression were singularly routed with casualties crossing the 100 mark while India too suffered fatal casualties of 20 soldiers including Colonel Santosh Babu, the iconic commanding officer of 16 Bihar Regiment. The face-off gave China the first indication of India’ s determination to oppose its expansionist tendencies at all costs.

The Indian Army built on this victory with a series of bold, brave and professional military moves that put China on the back foot. Worth mentioning here is the incisive manner in which the Indian (Vikas) troops carried out an operation to hold the Kailash ranges to dominate the Chinese Moldo garrison; the Chinese were caught completely by surprise and were put on the back foot.

Indian troops in Ladakh. (Representative image) Photo: PTI
Indian troops in Ladakh. (Representative Photo: PTI)

On February 10, 2021 the Chinese relented and agreed to maintain status quo ante in the most contentious Pangong Tso Lake sector. A  disengagement process with withdrawal to pre-designated locations well within claim lines on both sides was put in place.

A lot of brainstorming was done by strategic analysts to understand the motive behind the Chinese move to disrupt the status quo along the LAC. Two big reasons were attributed for the same, the first was a need to build on the macho image of President Xi Jinping and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as strong and decisive entities to offset internal dissension in the wake of the COVID fiasco. The second was to give a message to India to stay away from the US in any strategic alignment directed against China. It is also known that India is the only country opposed to BRI and CPEC; China’s sharp power dictates that either you are with them or against them.

President Xi Jinping had presumed that with the US preoccupied in its acrimonious presidential elections and internal problems, he would get a free hand in dealing a small blow to India to shore up his dwindling image and power. What he failed to factor in was the courage and fortitude of the Indian Army personified by the likes of Colonel Santosh Babu.

As things stand  presently, the troops have yet to disengage from several disputed points on the LAC.

India has not only built upon its military strength all along the LAC but has also strengthened its relationship with the QUAD, an “informal” group comprising of US, Japan Australia and India focusing mainly on non-security issues, but one which China perceives as a strategic alliance aimed at containing its interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

The foregoing is reason enough for China to look more assertively at India in coming times and this could well explain the slowdown by China in the disengagement process. China has been using its obdurate propaganda machinery to send a message to India to desist from becoming ‘overconfident’ due to support of the US and other countries.

In recent times, China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited bought a 99-year lease on Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka as a result of Sri Lanka falling in a debt trap created by China. Now, Sri Lanka’s parliament has passed the controversial Port City Bill, creating the country’s first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) despite widespread domestic dissent due to sovereignty issues; the main, perhaps only, beneficiary is China. The perceptible increase in the Chinese footprint in the region is a big strategic concern for India.

Over the years, China has sought to limit India’s response by entering into territorial agreements with countries neighbouring India, most prominently Pakistan. This apart has given soft power support to terrorism directed against the Indian soil and built infrastructure in occupied territories. It remains motivated and aggressive due to its financial power with a GDP that is about six times more than India. A hot LAC is, therefore, what China and the PLA want for obvious reasons.

China, however, would not want to escalate tensions along the LAC beyond a point since it involves commitment of troops that it can ill afford. It will, therefore, attempt to put pressure upon India through other means too as is obvious from its move in Sri Lanka. It will also exploit whatever vulnerabilities India shows in dealing with the COVID situation and may win over the neighbourhood with an aggressive vaccine diplomacy.

That said, the northern region of the country now marked by the Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are for India a significant strategic space and a diplomatic battleground. They cannot be ignored and hence the need to get ready for escalating tensions in the coming times.

India needs to understand that with China the chess board is out and out political in nature. What happens along the LAC is a part of the larger political game being played at a multi-dimensional level. The situation can be handled only by a strong political leadership that maintains a ‘whole of nation’ approach. While the Armed Forces ensure territorial integrity the political leadership will have to come up with answers to all challenges posed by the aggressive behaviour of the belligerent neighbour.

Kashmir must follow Saudi example and limit the use of loudspeaker in Mosques

Jaibans Singh
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Kashmir must follow Saudi example and limit the use of loudspeaker in Mosques

The Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Islamic Affairs has, in a landmark directive, told Mosques to limit the use of loudspeakers for religious discourses. A circular has been issued by Abdul Latif Al Sheikh, Saudi Minister of Islamic Affairs allowing the use of loudspeakers only for Azan (call for prayer) and Iqamat (second call for prayer). Furthermore, the volume must not exceed one-third of the full volume of the loudspeakers. The circular is based on a Hadith of Prophet Mohammed (PBUH), “Lo! every one of you is calling his Lord quietly. One should not trouble the other and one should not raise the voice in recitation or in prayer over the voice of the other.”

The ministry clarified that communicating the Imam’s voice in prayer is specific to those inside the Mosque, and there is no legitimate need to convey it to those in the home, “In addition to the fact that reading the Quran on external amplifiers is disrespectful to the Quran when it is recited loudly using external loudspeakers, while no one is listening to and pondering on its verses,” said the circular. The ministry has also observed that external amplifiers and loudspeakers used for anything other than the Azan harms patients, old people and children. Regulatory measures would be taken against anyone who violates this directive.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the birth place of Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and the birthplace of Islam, for which reason it is considered to be the “Home of Islam.” The holy cities of Mecca and Medina fall in the Kingdom. The Kingdom also plays a leadership role in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) which gives to it a strong voice in the Muslim world. The forward looking and enlightened decision taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to limit the use of loudspeakers must find resonance across the Islamic world.

In Kashmir the use of loudspeakers in Mosques for purposes other than religious necessity has been going on since decades. In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, when terrorism raised its ugly head in Jammu and Kashmir, especially Kashmir, loud speakers were financed and installed in Mosques by Pakistan.

The move paid excellent dividends; on 4th January 1990, Aftab, a local Urdu newspaper from Kashmir, published a press report issued by Hizb-ul-Mujahideen asking all the Kashmiri Hindus to leave the valley immediately. This was followed by broadcast of vitriolic and threatening communal speeches and messages from Mosques. The messages said, Ralive, Tsaliv ya Galive (either convert to Islam, leave the land or die) and other words to similar effect. This psychological operation was accompanied by targeted killings of Kashmiri Pandits and Sikhs in order to trigger their exodus from the valley. The resultant exit of the Kashmir Pandit community from the Valley as a consequence of these psychological operations is well documented, over 500,000 peace-loving and helpless Hindus and Sikhs were uprooted from their homes leading to the biggest ethnic cleansing witnessed in independent India.

Having achieved this massive success in a short period of time, the terror masters across the border integrated this resource seamlessly into their policy  of weakening India with a thousand cuts. The Hurriyat and the terrorists gave their messages from the Mosques. Crowds were collected, threats issued and diktats given through this medium. Indoctrination was done through spoken material provided by Pakistan and designed to flare up anti-India sentiments.

The preaching of a radical version of Islam to replace the enlightened Sufi culture was resorted to blatantly; and it has led to the advent of the Salafi-Wahabi stream of Islam in Kashmir that was earlier unknown in the valley. Lectures from the likes of Hafiz Saeed, Syed Salah-ud-Din, Akbaruddin Owaisi  andZakir Naik through Mosque loudspeakers are common place. India is incessantly described as a Dar-ul-Harb (land of war) and Dar al-Kufr (land of disbelievers).

This methodology reached a crescendo in the period of massive social disruption that was witnessed from 2008 onwards. Of note here is the anti-India campaign played out on the death of the terrorist Burhan Wani in 2016. Pro-Pakistan and anti-India slogans with fervent appeals and direct incitement to the youths to join “Jihad” and fight against security forces blared from loudspeakers. This became the norm post all killings of terrorists by security forces. The process continues albeit at a limited scale, now that terrorism has been contained to a great measure in the Kashmir valley. 

It is notable here that even Pakistan, that speaks so voraciously about the rights of the Kashmir people to use loudspeakers in Mosques, has been attempting to curtail the activity within the country. The Punjab Sound System (Regulation) Ordinance 2015 allows only one speaker for Azan and Friday Arabic sermons only. Loudspeakers have been removed by the police on several occasions from hundreds of Mosques in big cities like Rawalpindi, Lahore and Islamabad.

In India, “secular” credentials are freely used to continue with the use of loudspeakers for broadcast of prayers by all religious institutions, be it Hindu temples, Gurdwaras or Mosques. However, the realisation is there about the disrespect that this  practice causes apart from the discomfort and there is a social movement to curtail the same. In a landmark judgement the Allahabad High Court held that the Muezzin could recite ‘Azan’ from minarets of the Mosques by human voice without using any amplifying device. “Azan is certainly an essential and integral part of Islam but use of microphone and loud-speakers is not an essential and an integral part thereof,” said a statement of the Hon’ble Court.

In Kashmir, in particular, the matter gains significance since the use of loudspeakers in religious places poses a serious threat to peace and harmony and also to the safety, security and integrity of the people and the Nation. There is a strong case to seek motivation from the Saudi Arabia model and curtail the practice to the extent that is permissible now in the “Home of Islam”.

Israel and Hamas both won, but the Palestinians lost

Nilesh Kunwar
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Israel and Hamas both won, but the Palestinians lost

Since both Israel and Hamas are busy claiming “victory” after the truce which ended eleven days of intense bombardment and rocket attacks, it seems that the only losers in this senseless violence are those who are dead- and there are plenty of them. As per credible reports, nearly 250 people [including more than 100 women and children] lost their lives in Gaza, while 12 people [including two children] were killed in Israel.

This translates to one death in every hour of the 11-day conflict, which by no means can ever justify victory celebrations by either Israel or Hamas. Au contraire, with neither of them being able to achieve their military objectives, this humongous loss of lives was nothing but a sheer waste. While this may sound uncivil, but unfortunately, this is the harsh reality!

Here it’s not intended to delve into the genesis of the Palestine issue nor debate territorial claims being made by Israelis or Palestinians. Neither is it proposed to either justify one side and condemn the other for violence that they have perpetrated on each other. The aim is only to identify those guilty of creating conditions that resulted in deaths of so many non-combatants, so as to learn lessons for the future.

To start with, since fatalities in Gaza have been inordinately far greater than those suffered by Israel, the Israeli Defence Forces [IDF] should ideally be the main villains. Yet, apportioning blame solely on the basis of statistical data of fatalities would not be an accurate determinant because while this is indeed the ‘effect’ and can’t be overlooked, the ‘cause’ thereof is equally [if not more] important.

While the barrage of rockets fired at Israel are undoubtedly the root cause’ for IDF’s brutal retaliation that many opine is patently brazen use of excessive force, it’s Hamas which precipitated this monumental crisis, which snowballed into a cycle of violence. As per media reports, in this 11-day conflagration, more than 4,300 rockets were fired by Hamas, which averages to more than 390 projectiles per day, or 16 rockets per hour. In retaliation, IDF claims to have targeted 1,000 Hamas facilities, which amounts to more than 90 strikes per day or nearly 4 strikes every hour for 11 days. So, even though the ‘strike ratio’ of 1:4 is in favour of Hamas, the comparative fatality rate is both inverse and exceedingly disproportionate.

People in Palestine have suffered 20 times more casualties than those living in Israel and though heart wrenching, such a wide disparity in fatalities was expected for many reasons. One, despite being fully aware that Israel had deployed its state-of-the-art ‘Iron Dome’ anti-missile system, which is capable of destroying several hostile rockets even if fired simultaneously at different targets, Hamas still embarked on its reckless plan of trying to intimidate Tel Aviv through a sustained rocket barrage. What is even more distressing is that despite being fully aware that any rocket attack would invite a very strong retaliation from IDF resulting in the inevitable loss of life and property, Hamas still went ahead and put people of Gaza in grave danger of becoming hapless victims of what many analysts euphemistically refer to as ‘collateral damage’.

Secondly, these rocket attacks were of unprecedented intensity and not directed at military targets but population centers in Israel, it gave Tel Aviv the much-wanted reason for initiating defensive measures in the form of targeting both rocket launch sites and Hamas bases in Gaza. Tel Aviv’s decision also found widespread approval of the international community and readers may recall that even US President Joe Biden endorsed IDF strikes in Gaza by reasoning that “Israel has a right to defend itself when you have thousands of rockets flying into your territory”. Furthermore, by intentionally attacking civilian targets in Israel, outcry against civilian casualties in Gaza didn’t find much traction within the international community and Hamas has no one but itself to blame for this sorry state of affairs!

Lastly, and most tragically, even though people of Gaza have suffered extremely heavy losses, their suffering hasn’t helped the Palestinian cause at all. Conversely, despite its best efforts to gain worldwide sympathy by flashing visuals of sites attacked and civilians killed and injured by IDF [including circulating orchestrated images of ‘dead’ and ‘injured’ Palestinians], the Hamas hasn’t been able to gain any meaningful sympathy.

So, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi may talk big about Israelis losing “the media war, despite their connections,” and its human rights minister Shireen Mazari tweeting of how “when we [Pakistan] highlight Israelis ‘deep pockets’ & influence over western media & govts, it gets labelled ‘anti-Semitic’,” their bombast lacks credibility because by its precipitous actions, Hamas has forfeited the Palestinians’ genuine right to portray themselves as victims.

When the world watched visuals of the night sky above Israel lighting up as Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted and destroyed a devasting array rockets fired by Hamas in midair, the first thought that came to mind was the colossal damage to civilian life and property these 4,000 odd rockets could have caused had they not been neutralised by IDF. Secondly, the fact that Hamas rockets have killed three foreign nationals [one Indian woman and two Thai males] as well as injured seven workers from Thailand has angered the world and put the Palestinians’ travails into the backburner.

Moreover, by launching rockets from inhabited areas [visual proof of which has been released by IDF], and setting up their operating bases in high rise buildings is rightly being viewed as a Hamas tactic. As the densely populated areas provide an excellent protective umbrella of ‘human shields’ to protect themselves from IDF strikes. So, since Hamas itself doesn’t seem to have any concern for the safety of innocent Palestinians, expecting the international community to sympathise with Hamas is obviously a tall order. Therefore, while the people of Gaza have all the reasons to feel aggrieved for being abandoned to their fate by the global community, it’s not international apathy but the vile ways of Hamas that’s to blame.   

Yet, while Hamas may be directly responsible for the sorrow brought upon the Palestinians in Gaza, but it’s the Islamic nations which are providing munitions and money to this proscribed terrorist outfit for fighting their proxy war with Israel who are the actual ones having the blood of innocent Palestinians on their hands. Thus, while the Organisation of Islamic Conference [OIC] may publicly shed tears on the plight of Gaza residents, countries like Turkey and Pakistan are busy trying to exploit this massive human tragedy in an attempt to manipulate and climb a few notches up in the existing power and influence structure within the comity of Islamic nations.

Resultantly, while the Hamas and OIC may consider truce in Gaza as a victory, and Islamic nations reaffirm solidarity with the Palestinian cause, but in the continuing Arab-Israeli face off, it’s the people of Palestine who always were, still are, and will continue to be the real losers!   

When will the Pandits return to Kashmir Valley?

Prof. K.N. Pandita
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When will the Pandits return to Kashmir Valley?

Lt. Governor Manoj Sinha cannot be singled out for his token response to the question of restoring secular profile of Kashmir Valley. Answering a press reporter about the return and restitution of the displaced community of Kashmiri Hindus (Pandits), the Lt. Governor chose to be vague and perfunctory. He has thus maintained the government’s decades-old policy of side-tracking the core of Kashmir issue. He said the process of return of the displaced Pandits will begin in a year. But lest caught on the wrong foot, he corrected himself and added that 6,000 government vacancies would be filled by recruiting the youth from the displaced population and an equal number of flats were under construction in some parts of the valley where these employees would be housed.

Thus, we find that an issue meriting political treatment is relegated to administrative dispensation. One can understand the compulsions.

However, it has to be recollected that the Prime Minister’s package was announced by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then PM, in 2008 on the occasion of inaugurating the Akhnoor Bridge in Jammu. In 12 years barely 1400 youth of the displaced community have been inducted into government service. With this snail’s pace, it will take another fifty years for the Lt. Governor to employ 4600 youth of the displaced community.

The PM’s Package was dragged on for 12 long years and the eligible youth of the displaced community became over-aged and ineligible for employment in government service. The LG was loath either to reflect on this sordid situation or to pass even an off-the-cuff remark on the subject. He meticulously desisted from making any commitment about the migrant youth who have become over aged in course of time but for no fault of theirs.

We believe the Lt. Governor has to be a thinking machine in terms of the needs and importance of secular dispensation in Kashmir and the pre-requisites of its contours. The question is whether the panacea for the ethnic cleansing of Kashmir lies in providing 6000 Class IV or III jobs to the eligible youth of the displaced community and then leave it to its fate.

If in the eyes of responsible authorities the Pandit issue means only providing employment to their eligible youth and brushing aside all other ramifications of mass displacement and ethnic cleansing, then why not find them work for wages outside Kashmir and formally announce Kashmiris of the valley having the freedom of declaring Kashmir sharia observing theocratic region (or sub-region) in a secular Union Territory of the Bharatiya Union.  

We believe that the Lt. Governor is aware that as Home Minister Rajnath Singh had proposed to earmark a sum of Rs. 5000 crore for the rehabilitation of the displaced Pandits back in Kashmiri. Omar Abdullah, the then CM never responded to that proposal.

What inference will the Lt. Governor draw from this? Why should he not open the matter and induce the Union government to consider the proposal? 

In the Agreement of Alliance jointly signed by (late) Mufti Muhammad Saeed, the then chief minister and BJP leadership while cobbling a coalition government in 2014, it was stipulated that the displaced Hindus of the valley would be resettled in Kashmir.

Late Mufti and P.M. Modi met in Delhi and agreed to take an initiative to this purpose. They made a public joint statement in Delhi. Next day, there was a general strike against the announcement in the entire valley the like of which has never been seen.

Not only that, in the State Legislative Assembly, Kashmir Valley MLAs came to fists with the BJP members and declared that no power on earth could bring back the Pandits to the Valley. Mufti Saeed, the Chief Minister, intervening in the melee absolved himself saying he meant the Pandits would return to their homes in respective localities in towns and villages. But he did not say where their homes were and who had vandalized these and whether these existed at all?

The General Secretary of National Conference is on record to have said that the NC would not allow the return of the displaced Pandits because “we know each Pandit will bring three Israelis with him”.

This should explain to the Lt. Governor what Sheikh Abdullah meant saying in his biography Atash-e-Chinar that the Pandits are the “spies of India in Kashmir”. One may ask, is a Pandit eking out a miserable living in Kashmir a spy of Bharat or is it those who have been ruling over Kashmir for three generations albeit with the patronage of New Delhi?

The Lt. Governor may assume the thorny issue of return and rehabilitation of displaced Pandits just simplistic and conducive to political expediency of the authorities in power. But this simplification has an unfavourable dimension. It could be interpreted that the Pandits should reconcile to returning to the Wahhabized Kashmir and live as third rate dhimmis (outcasts) in the once glorious land of their ancestors. 

Who does not know that propagators of Islamic Caliphate have dragged Kashmir to the centre of their philosophy? The insurgents in Kashmir are not fighting for democracy, human rights, development, equality and the rule of law. They are fighting to dismantle it lock, stock and barrel, and replace it with Islamic Sharia (law). 

Not only the Indian state but even the Indian nation is pitted against the expansionist Islam of early times. Kashmir cause is as dear to the bigots as it has led to a split among the Muslims in which the non-Semitic Islamic world has developed political differences with the Semitic Arab world. The former attaches importance to nuclear Pakistan hoping that the day would not be far away when she will in actuality convert it into an Islamic bomb. The ground is already set for that.

What does President Erdogan’s aspiration for the revival of Ottoman grandeur mean? Of late, Turkey has been showing goodwill gesture towards Kashmiri Muslim students by making their admission easier in Turkish institutes and granting scholarships to some of them. The aim is to assure the Kashmiri Muslims and Pakistan that Turkey is with them in their Kashmir mission.

Farooq Abdullah’s call for invoking China’s support in the Islamic revivalist movement in Kashmir could not have come without the blessings from the Chinese mission in New Delhi, a source known for its largesse in winning over political dissidents of various hues in Bharat. China is using the Islamists all over the world for wrecking the existing world order and reshaping it after its planning. The world is getting gradually polarized. 

Democracy, the universally accepted just form of government, is alien to the doctrinal Islamic practice and tradition. Bharat, with the second-largest Muslim population in the world is in the forefront of the ongoing clash of civilizations.

Farooq or Mufti’s opposition to Bharat essentially stems from the concept that Muslims are not supposed to be subservient to a non-Muslim rule. This thinking was clearly stated by Sheikh Abdullah when he argued for special status for Kashmir at the time when Bharat’s constitution was in making.

Farooq cannot be faulted for invoking the help of China in “liberating Kashmir from occupational forces of India” because way back in 1950s his illustrious father had fixed a secret meeting with the then Chinese premier Chou En Lai in Algiers. This was the time when China had broken relations with India and the Sheikh was dreaming of Kashmir Sultanate. 

When Bharat agreed to Kashmir’s special status on the basis of religion and did not demand that J&K Constitution also make identical provision for the protection of the rights and identity of its religious minorities, it was obvious that Bharat was reconciled to Kashmir as a theocratic region within the secular Bharatiya Union.

It is the loss of that theocratic status which Farooq Abdullah, Mufti Mahbooba and others of their team are lamenting for and seeking restoration. The recent separatist oriented statements of Mahbooba, the President of PDP should be a lesson for the BJP which made the Himalayan blunders in Kashmir especially that of forming a coalition with it not once but twice. 

Farooq Abdullah says that he is not against the Bharat but against BJP for abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A. But it is the Bharat that had incorporated through its representatives in the parliament the said article in the Constitution and it is the same Bharat which has through its representatives in the Parliament abrogated the said Article.

Obviously Dr. Farooq is opposing not only Bharat but also its most sanctimonious institution namely Bharat’s Parliament. 

With several terrorist organizations based in Pakistan sending their suicide bombers to fight Bharat’s defence forces in Kashmir and the state political leadership never condemning and always justifying the violence unleashed by them, the valley’s political leadership indirectly sends a message to the displaced community of Pandits that the valley is not the place they should look for.

Bharat is knee-deep in this existential conflict with the radicals. The Islamists have succeeded in making the world believe that Bharat is lost to the secularists and, therefore, they have a historic duty to fight back for its “Islamization”. Nobody can predict how long this conflict will continue and with consequences.

The people in the valley are happy if Bharatiya government is investing massively in various developmental works in Kashmir. The developmental exercise has one meaning for the Government of Bharat and another for the valley leadership.

What we would like to bring home to Bharatiya government is that the need is to bring about fundamental changes in Kashmir. Democracy and civil rights have been abused beyond limits in Kashmir. The entire administrative structure is mentally diseased and morally run aground.

Religion is turned into lethal weapon that scares people and stifles their voice. Abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35-A has roused much rabble and yielded substantially little.

Stopping the abuse of democratic dispensation, neutralizing the tyranny of majoritarianism, drastically separating religion from politics, strictly enforcing rules and regulations governing cohesive social interaction, disarming the powerful elitist class, withdrawing all such privileges as generate support for the concept of exclusiveness, etc., these are the fundamental tasks that must be taken in hand if Kashmir is to be retrieved.

Kashmir Valley has to be Bharat if the displaced community is to go back to the valley. The Pandits are not goats to be sacrificed for the sake of the type of “secularism” which Bharat is harbouring in Kashmir. The Pandits will not go to the Wahhabized and Pakistani-zed Kashmir but to Indian-ized Kashmir only.

Manoj Sinha’s appointment as the Lt. Governor of Jammu & Kashmir

When Manoj Sinha was appointed the new Lt. Governor, national print media was abuzz with the accolades that the new Governor had a huge fund of experience at his back and he would surely find a political solution to Kashmir imbroglio.

We wondered how come this person had accumulated all the knowledge about Kashmir issue, Kashmirian society and its layers after layers that he earned the accolades. Now we understand that a good deal of spadework had been done by him to publicize his profile the way he liked it.

A close watch of the words, actions and policy of the Lt. Governor clearly show that he just wants his tenure to be completed without any significant controversy and complication. This means his policy simply put is of least resistance. In doing so, he has been moving very close to the policy laid down by Congress during its long tenure of six decades.

Speaking from the platform of displaced Kashmiri Pandits, there are several questions that ask for a sensible answer. How has the abrogation of Art 370 and Art 35-A impacted the displaced population of Pandit minority? Not in any way.

The greatest beneficiary of this action of the Union government are the 1947 refugees/ migrants from PoK/ West Punjab of a sizeable number who though living in Jammu ever since were not given the citizenship of the State.

BJP pursued this agenda single mindedly from day one and saw to it that the promise was fulfilled. We are happy these unfortunate people have got the citizenship rights and their suffering is mitigated.

The BJP government and the Lt Gov never visited Jagti refugee camp and never enquired about the problems of nearly fifty thousand of its inhabitants. He never called the residual Pandit minority members in the valley to know from them their problems and solutions.

The Lt Governor never thought of politically empowering the displaced Pandits by impressing upon the Central government that it should create 4-5 electoral constituencies in exile for the displaced persons.

A valley-based Muslim youth clandestinely crosses the border and joins the terrorist training camp in PoK, receives training in arms and subversion, clandestinely sneaks back into the valley, hurls bombs on the security forces, shoots at policemen and kidnaps civilians to hold them as hostage, then runs back to PoK, marries there, produces children and continues to receive financial support of ISI or the terrorist organizations of Pakistan, and one fine morning decides to return along with Pakistani wife and half a dozen children by her adopting the Nepal route. Once back in Kashmir valley, the local government offers him asylum, withdraws all criminal charges against him, provides him with shelter and bank loan to build a house, provides him timber and tin and building material on throwaway price and then provides him with a job and looks to his needs and that of his family. In one case the Pakistani wife of a surrendered terrorist fills the form for membership of DDC and wins. 

Against this, the Pandits are not allowed to return and resettle or to be entitled to constituency in exile. Where are the constitutional rights of the displaced community? There is hardly a day when Lt Gov Sinha does not visit one or the other Muslim organization/ institution/ establishment in the Valley, enquires about their activity and offers lakhs of rupees by way of support/ encouragement or goodwill.

Did he visit a single temple in the valley to ask the stones how they were destroyed and broken into pieces? No he has no urgency. Why does not the Lt Gov take any step in the direction of finding a legal way of taking over the control of the temples and shrines of Kashmir by constituting a temple and shrines board as is the case with the Awqaf or SAD? Why is he complacent about Hindu shrines and temples? Because the Pandits are numerically insignificant and not anybody’s vote bank they receive a scurvy treatment. 

Has the Lt Gov interacted with the Pandit intellectuals and seniors to start a discussion on the return and rehabilitation of the community? What sense does it carry to raise 6 thousand flats for the Pandit employees and allot them the accommodation? When the employee retires, what will be his fate and that of his family? Does Indian secularism in Kashmir mean giving a couple of thousands of class III or class IV jobs to the displaced people and close the chapter?

We would like to put a question to the LG. “Mr. LG, do you understand what it means for a non-Muslim religious miniscule minority to live with an overwhelming Muslim majority when the government is out to appease the majority by all means possible fair or foul?” “Mr LG, do you know the fundamentals of Islamic religion, culture and polity?”

It is necessary to convey to the honourable LG that the Kashmiri Pandit community is not one that will be fouled and abused a second time. We have broken the shackles after a long slavery of seven or eight hundred years, and we will not slip back into the old phenomenon.

US-Taliban peace deal will push Afghanistan into Taliban’s lap

Nilesh Kunwar
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US-Taliban peace deal will push Afghanistan into Taliban’s lap

There’s good and bad news from Afghanistan. The good part is pullout of US troops from Afghanistan which commenced on 1 May is heading as planned, putting an end to its two-decade old “forever war”. The bad news is that just within 96 hours after this withdrawal commenced, Taliban carried out more than 100 attacks on Afghan security forces and government installations in 26 of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan. The most important gain that the Taliban has made thus far is seizing control of Burka district in the Baghlan province of North-Eastern Afghanistan on May 4 and Baghlan police spokesperson Ahmad Jaweed Basharat confirmed “that the enemy [Taliban] has captured the Burka district as a result of an encounter”.

While loss of Burka district is a major blow to Kabul, what is even more unnerving are the circumstances under which this district fell into Taliban hands. While Baghlan police spokesperson claimed that this was because “security and defense forces tactically, without suffering any losses, withdrew” from this area and spoke about “plans to recapture it”, Newsweek reported that this took place “after 200 government troops surrendered”. So, whether we believe Taliban or the police spokesperson, one thing is evident– Afghan security forces in Burka district didn’t put up a determined fight.

Readers may recall that while Taliban ceased attacking US troops after signing the February 29, 2021 peace treaty with Washington, it continued attacking government forces, further emboldened by lack of intervention from Washington. So, further escalation in Taliban attacks against Afghan security forces once US troops commenced their withdrawal was expected all along. It’s likely that those defending Burka district may have been vastly outnumbered and thus surrendered, but even if this was so, it still casts serious doubts on professional acumen of Afghan army leadership, which failed to discern the obvious.

Failure of Afghan army leadership to take pre-emptive measures and thwart Taliban’s designs by either increasing strength of troops in Burka district or drawing up contingency plans to counter the expected Taliban onslaught through standoff interdiction is a serious failing. The loss of Burka is undoubtedly the cumulative result of pedestrian leadership and lack of motivation within the rank and file of Afghan security forces. This doesn’t inspire much confidence regarding Afghan army’s ability to keep Taliban at bay.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies Long War Journal, a renowned US news website reporting the war on terror, has determined that in the beginning of 2021, while the Ashraf Ghani government controlled 33 per cent of Afghanistan’s districts, 19 per cent were controlled by Taliban. Therefore, while the fall of Burka district may not be a catastrophic development in terms of territorial loss, it is nevertheless disconcerting as it is an unambiguous signal that rather than relying on the democratic process and  becoming a co-player in future scheme of things through consensus, Taliban would instead use brute force to impose its exclusive writ over Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s utter disdain for the Ashraf Ghani government is evident from its statement issued on August 15 last year that “The Islamic Emirate [Taliban] does not recognize the Kabul administration as a government but views it as western imported structure working for the continuation of American occupation”.  Accordingly, it’s unlikely that Taliban would sit and talk with what it considers to be a ‘puppet’ government. Furthermore, even if ‘Quetta Shura’, [Taliban’s supreme decision-making body] takes an accommodative stance, its frontline commanders combating Afghan security forces will definitely oppose any concessions being made to Kabul as it would be tantamount to mocking sacrifices of their dead fighters as well as squandering Taliban’s far superior fighting capability.

President Biden may believe that Taliban would honour its peace deal commitments by not allowing “any of its members, other individuals or groups, including Al-Qaida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies”. However, when Taliban hasn’t even bothered to move an inch forward as regards working on “a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” through “intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations,” as specifically mentioned in Part 4 of the peace agreement, to expect it to abandon its close ally, Al-Qaida, may be wishful thinking, and there are good reasons to believe so.

Despite having committed not to allow Al-Qaida use of areas under its control, this group’s number two in the Indian subcontinent Abu Muhsin al-Masri [who was also on FBI’s ‘Most Wanted Terrorists list’] was killed by Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security in Taliban controlled Ghazni province in October last year. The very next month, Afghan security forces gunned down yet another Al-Qaida terrorist of Pakistani nationality named Mohammad Hanif in Taliban controlled Western Afghanistan. The killing of two key Al-Qaida operatives in areas under Taliban control is a clear indication that Taliban has no intention of honouring the US-Taliban peace agreement!

The way events are unfolding in Afghanistan gives one an eerie feeling because Taliban continues to maintain its fundamentalist views and is determined to enforce its own convoluted brand of ‘Sharia’ [Islamic law]. So, while withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan may be a cause for great celebration for the US and its allies, but for those in Afghanistan, the post-coalition force withdrawal scenario is foreboding as it will open the floodgates of death and destruction. Consequently, while the entire countryside will burn as Taliban and government forces battle it out for control of hamlets, villages and districts, imposition of Taliban brand ‘Sharia’ would take the country back to medieval times.

Those suspected of collaborating with the US or Afghan government will be publicly executed to set an example. Violation of Taliban’s diktats will attract public flogging and even execution, while hands and legs of petty thieves would be amputated while those accused of adultery would be stoned to death. Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan won’t have any working women as they would be confined to their homes, while girls’ schools will be permanently shut down. The May 8 bomb attack in front of Sayed Al-Shuhada school in Kabul, which killed at least 85 and injured 147 [mostly school girls], reflects Taliban’s opposition to female education.

For Taliban, the bottom line is that the Ashraf Ghani government must go, not because it’s perceived as “a western imported structure” but also since it has cordial relations with New Delhi. Islamabad wants a more amiable dispensation in Kabul and Taliban is the only contender that fits the bill. Islamabad’s eagerness to see ‘Quetta Shura’ at the helm of affairs in Afghanistan is but natural. After all, despite severe international criticism and immense pressure from Washington, Islamabad still provided a safe sanctuary to Taliban leaders and their family members ever since 2001 and now the time has come for Taliban to return the favour!

Tailpiece: Though officially titled ‘Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan’, the 2020 US-Taliban has until now, failed to live up to its impressive designation, and if past and present trends are any indicators to go by, then it’s extremely unlikely that this agreement will ever achieve peace!

COVID-19 is part of the biowarfare program of China: Dr Lawrence Sellin

Vivek Sinha
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COVID-19 is part of the biowarfare program of China: Dr Lawrence Sellin

There’s abundant scientific evidence that the novel coronavirus was created in the laboratories of China by scientists of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Dr Lawrence Sellin, who has been investigating about the origins of this virus since onset of the pandemic, said in his interview with Vivek Sinha, Editor-in-Chief News Intervention that PLA created this coronavirus as part of its biowarfare program. Dr Sellin also said that U.S. virus research programs have been infiltrated by the PLA and CCP scientists.

Vivek Sinha: You have been investigating and researching the origins of COVID-19 for more than a year. Please tell us about the role of CCP, PLA and the US-based research institutions in the creation and the subsequent spread of this Coronavirus.

Dr Lawrence Sellin: I believe the COVID-19 virus was created in a laboratory and it was part of China’s biowarfare program. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has overall responsibility for that program, which is executed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The biowarfare program consists of three levels. The first level is the core, secret military level. Layered on top of the core level are China’s universities and the ostensibly “civilian” research institutions and medical companies. Everyone needs to understand that, in China, there is no difference between military and civilian research. The fusion of those research and development sectors was mandated by the 2016 CCP Thirteenth Five-Year Plan. It is that middle layer, which has allowed the PLA to access international knowledge and skills, particularly from the U.S., all of which has contributed to the advancement of China’s virus research programs, including bioweapons development.

Lawrence Sellin, Retired US Army Colonel and a veteran of Afghanistan, Iraq & West Africa.
Dr. Lawrence Sellin has decades of experience in the medical and pharmaceutical research and has been investigating about the origins of coronavirus since the onset of this pandemic. Dr Sellin retired as a US Army Colonel and is a veteran of Afghanistan, Iraq and West Africa.

Vivek Sinha: What is the scientific evidence that proves that this virus was created inside a laboratory?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: One only needs to look at the structure of the COVID-19 virus to be convinced that it was made in a laboratory. It appears to be a composite virus with insertions that cannot be explained by natural evolution and sometimes defying the laws of biology and physics, like the series of four basic amino acids recently described in a new scientific publication by British professor Angus Dalgleish and Norwegian scientist Dr Birger Sorensen. For me, the “smoking gun” has always been the PRRA (proline, arginine, arginine, alanine) furin cleavage site, which does not exist in that form, in that location in any close COVID-19 bat coronavirus relative. It is a structure long known to increase transmissibility and lethality and Chinese military scientists published methods for inserting a furin cleavage site in 2013.

Vivek Sinha: Even though the world is grappling with the second wave of this pandemic, China is unusually calm and safe. How and why has China not been affected by the mutant version of Coronavirus?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: The CCP censors nearly all information regarding the effect of COVID-19 in China, which is undoubtedly affected in similar ways as other countries, but we simply do not have access to that information.

Vivek Sinha: Do you think there is a possibility that the CCP/PLA is directly involved in the creation and spread of mutant Coronavirus to different parts of the world? If yes, then what evidence can be given to the skeptics who still believe in the innocence of CCP and PLA?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: I do not have enough evidence to state that China is involved in the creation or spread of COVID-19 variants. Viruses always mutate. It is possible that the unnatural manipulation of the structure of COVID-19 led to mutations that made COVID-19 more contagious or lethal. One of the mutations of the B.1.617 variant, which is now significantly affecting India, is the P681R mutation of the artificially-inserted PRRA furin cleavage site, changing it from PRRA to RRRA. The two Rs (arginines) in the PRRA structure render its functionality in terms of transmissibility and lethality. The P (proline) is mainly structural, protruding the furin cleavage site out of the main body of the spike protein, making it more accessible to the human enzyme furin, thereby, triggering viral entry. Stated simply, three arginines (R) are more effective than two, which may be contributing to its greater infectivity.

Vivek Sinha: If the involvement of CCP and PLA is so blatantly clear shouldn’t the world rename this virus as “China Virus” something which former US President Donald Trump had said, but was dismissed as racist comment?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: I call it the CCP Virus and everyone should call it that or, perhaps more accurately the PLA virus. It should be publicly linked to the PLA’s biowarfare program.

Vivek Sinha: How did Dr Anthony Fauci, Dr Peter Daszak and Dr Kristian G Andersen (Scripps Research) help CCP/PLA in the development of a bioweapon in the form of Coronavirus? Do you think PLA scientists have infiltrated other US research institutions as well? If yes, then what should the US government do to cleanse its scientific research institutions of CCP/PLA moles?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: I contend that U.S. virus research programs are massively infiltrated by CCP and PLA scientists. What I call “scientific chain migration” began in the 1990s. CCP and PLA scientists established themselves in U.S. research centers, some even becoming U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Then they invited other CCP and PLA scientists. From that small start it has grown exponentially. Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has been responsible for nearly all of the coronavirus research funding, including funding CCP and PLA scientists working in the U.S. and collaborative research between people like Dr Peter Daszak and Dr Kristian G Andersen and China-based scientists either directly or indirectly connected to the PLA. It has become a deep and widespread problem because there is no national security accountability in the Fauci-funded research. One can also add research funded by the U.S. Department of Defense as an element of that problem. There needs to be a thorough investigation and a complete audit of all U.S. government funding that involves research affecting U.S. national security in which China has shown an interest, virus research being a prime example.

Dr Peter Daszak, President of the EcoHealth Alliance. Dr Daszak's funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Dr Peter Daszak, President of the EcoHealth Alliance. Dr Daszak’s funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Vivek Sinha: When, according to you, did the PLA scientists begin infiltrating the US academic institutions, especially the virus research centres?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: As I explained in a previous answer, the CCP and PLA infiltration of U.S. virus research programs began in the Clinton Administration and accelerated thereafter.

Vivek Sinha: At the start of this pandemic several reputed journals such as Nature and Lancet published articles that vehemently denied that this virus was created in the laboratory and went on to explain that this was indeed a natural virus. Even WHO had several reports that gave a clean chit to China and the virologists at Wuhan Institute of Virology. Does this mean that CCP / PLA has infiltrated all premier institutions of the world that includes WHO and reputed research publications such as Nature and Lancet?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: Not always infiltration, but the CCP certainly has sympathizers and outsized influence in the WHO and major scientific journals such as Nature and The Lancet. The scientific literature is politically contaminated to a significant extent.

Vivek Sinha: Who are the key PLA military personnel /CCP scientists, who according to your investigation, were actively involved in the creation and spread of this virus around the world?

Dr Lawrence Sellin: The individual names are too numerous to identify in this interview. The CCP leaders have overall responsibility for China’s biowarfare program, which, as I said, was executed by the PLA. It has been mainly supervised by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences in coordination with the ostensibly “civilian” entities such as the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and the Chinese Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Falling under them and part of the biowarfare program are military-connected universities and research centers like the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Pak Army-backed ‘Death Squad’ murders Hindu trader in Balochistan

News Intervention Bureau
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Pak Army-backed ‘Death Squad’ murders Hindu trader in Balochistan

Death Squads backed by the Pakistan Army struck once again in occupied Balochistan on Monday when they killed a Hindu businessman Ashok Kumar for his refusal to pay extortion money.

“Ashok Kumar was shot dead by the Death Squad of the notorious Islamic extremist Shafiq Mengal at 10 AM today (Monday) in Wadh Tehsil of Khuzdar District of occupied Balochistan,” a Baloch from Khuzdar told local media channels. Local people protested the cold blooded murder of Ashok Kumar by Shafiq Mengal-backed Death Squad and blocked the Quetta-Karachi highway. Shafiq Mengal is Pakistan Army’s stooge who has the backing of Rawalpindi to carry out all kinds of illegal activities across occupied Balochistan.

Ashok Kumar’s dead body at the hospital. ISI has propped up several criminal gangs known as ‘Death Squad’ across occupied Balochistan. These Death Squads run drug cartels, kidnap people for ransom and are indulged in extortions, among several other nefarious activities. One such Death Squad is run by Pakistan Army’s stooge Shafiq Mengal who murdered Ashok Kumar. (Photo: News Intervention)

“Death Squad goons opened fire this morning in Wadh Bazaar for not paying extortion and injured Hindu businessman Ashok Kumar. We rushed Ashok Kumar to the hospital in a critical condition where he succumbed to his injuries,” said another Baloch to the local media channels.

Protesting traders at the Quetta-Karachi main highway demanded protection for other traders, including Hindus. They also demanded that the murderers of Ashok Kumar be arrested immediately.

Hindu businessman Ashok Kumar who was shot dead by the Death Squad for his inability to pay extortion money. (Photo: News Intervention)

Even earlier, Pakistan Army and ISI-backed Death Squads have been involved in cases of loot, extortion and killings across occupied Balochistan. In Khuzdar district there have been several incidents of murder of traders in cases of non-payment of extortion money to the Death Squads. Several incidents of kidnapping Hindu traders and demand for ransom have taken place in Khuzdar and adjoining districts of occupied Balochistan.

Let’s debate the tobacco market rationally

Shantanu Guha Ray
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Let’s debate the tobacco market rationally

Almost three and a half decades after it was created by the World Health Organisation, the World No Tobacco Day this year has discussed the possibility of reducing nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. The move, in many ways, could have a seismic impact and bring about the most fundamental change in the world tobacco industry and public health. 

Tobacco kills more than 8 million people each year.

In the US, over 140 organisations called on governments last week to phase out the sale of all cigarettes, among the signatories the Association of American Cancer Institutes and schools such as the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. New Zealand is soliciting feedback on a proposal to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes by 95 percent and eventually phase out the legal sale of cigarettes.

But reducing nicotine in cigarettes to non addictive levels is just one way of looking at the markets. But that might be just the start when it comes to tobacco regulation. Revenues in cigarettes amount to $68 billion in 2021, the market is expected to grow annually by 2.72 percent. 

“The idea is to reduce or eliminate addiction. What drives cigarette smoking is becoming addicted to smoking,” said Neal Benowitz, a tobacco addiction researcher at the University of California at San Francisco. Scientists in 2018 said lowering nicotine to minimally addictive levels would result in 5 million smokers quitting within a year and 13 million within five years.

(Representative photo)

And nicotine reduction could be politically challenging and divisive. And it is here the focus and onus both comes on the World Health Organisation, speakers after speakers highlighted this issue at the recently concluded World E-Cigarette Summit at Washington, a two-day event which was attended by this correspondent from India.

There are over a billion smokers worldwide, over 80 percent of them living in the developing world. The WHO needs to push innovative, effective, and compassionate solutions to accelerate an end to this global epidemic.

First, a near-total ban would create a black market in cigarettes. For example, there could be high potential for a dangerous illicit market if the United States bans all but very low nicotine cigarettes while the rest of the world allows higher nicotine content. Worse, lower-nicotine cigarettes would not, in themselves, be any safer than regular cigarettes.

And then comes another very crucial issue. The speakers said the world needs to have a compassionate and dispassionate approach to vaping? For the record, the UK has taken a compassionate approach to vaping, including for groups for whom there is a very high smoking prevalence, such as people who experience mental health problems, misuse substances and those who experience homelessness. 

This approach is also evidence based as e-cigarettes have been shown to be beneficial at an overall population level, particularly if youth uptake is constrained. 

Prof Ann McNeil, Professor of Tobacco Addiction, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London dwelt on the mindset of today’s cigarette smokers. 

(Representative photo)

She told this reporter that the world tobacco marketplace has changed with the introduction of new nicotine delivery devices. While the public health community has been addressing the dramatic increase of e-cigarette use among youth, FDA recently conducted qualitative research with adult smokers to ascertain their current attitudes and beliefs about cigarettes and other tobacco products. 

“Focus group findings underscore that quitting cigarettes remains difficult. Smokers are often navigating multiple barriers to quitting, including stressors, perceived benefits of smoking, and persistent misperceptions about nicotine and addiction. Findings also revealed an increase in the belief that reducing use is an effective strategy for cessation, and there is low motivation among smokers to abstain from nicotine. An opportunity remains to further educate and address these misperceptions to support long-term cessation,” she said.

Kathleen Crosby, Director, Office of Health Communication & Education, FDA Center for Tobacco Products, said stigmatizing smoking has been at the heart of tobacco control efforts for decades, which may drive more people to quit but at the same time potentially create new difficulties for smokers, including self-isolation, creation of social groups that might become ‘hardened’ to changing smoking behaviors, and perceptions by the user and society that complete abstinence is the only option. 

“The stigma associated with a wide variety of behaviors has impeded progress toward improving population health in some cases, such as the reticence in making products and services available that could reduce the risk when an individual addicted to a substance is not able to or chooses not to become completely abstinent (eg NRT, ENDS, smokeless tobacco). 

“This presentation will explore some of the conflicting aspects of stigma in tobacco control, explore similarities and differences regarding the stigma of using different addicting substances, and consider some research, practice and policy directions,” she said.

Let’s take this discussion forward. 

Is the e-cigarette use among adolescent smokers associated with subsequent smoking? Consider this study by Ruoyan Sun, PhD, David Mendez, PhD, and Kenneth E. Warner, PhD demonstrates that when controlling for more potential covariates, the strong and positive relationship between vaping by adolescent never smokers and subsequent trial of cigarettes decreases steadily. 

(Representative photo)

Interestingly, this is the first study to control for both use of other tobacco products and other drugs (marijuana and alcohol in our case), along with commonly included variables. The study had reported reduced associations between vaping and subsequent smoking, adjusting for these covariates. The study also provides empirical evidence that raises questions about the strength of relationship between youth vaping and subsequent trials of cigarettes.

So what should be the public health objectives: Preventing nicotine use or ending smoking? 

A myriad of studies find that tobacco control policies targeting e-cigarettes can increase combustible tobacco use, presumably by reducing incentives to choose vaping over smoking. “Given evidence that vaping nicotine is likely far less harmful than smoking combustible cigarettes, these unintended consequences may translate into substantial costs for population health,” Abigail Friedman, Assistant Professor, Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, said in his speech. 

Adolescent substance use, more than e-cigarettes; Assistant Prof Jennifer Pearson, Assistant Professor in Health Administration and Policy, School of Community Health Sciences, University of Nevada, US, says adolescents who are frequent users of multiple substances such as alcohol, marijuana, and cigarettes are at significantly higher risk of negative mental, physical, and substance use outcomes in adulthood, but studies often fail to focus on poly substance use, especially among younger adolescents.

So here comes the big question? Are current e-cigarette policies aligned with health equity goals? 

Prof Pearson says much of the current tobacco control agenda is focussed on preventing youth vaping. “I find that I have more questions than answers: Should our focus be on nicotine addiction or combustible use? Is youth vaping similar to youth marijuana use – an experimental phase that will pass? What is the endgame?”

Currently, the e-cigarette marketplace is only partially regulated. The FDA has received millions of applications from manufacturers who want to continue to market their e-cigarettes. The U.S. Courts have required e-cigarette manufacturers to have a marketing authorization from FDA to continue marketing their products after September 9, 2021. So, what is FDA doing to create a regulated e-cigarette marketplace by September? How will the FDA address youth initiation of e-cigarettes? For example, how will FDA determine which flavors and e-cigarette types (e.g., open e- cigarettes) will receive marketing authorization? In addition to minimizing youth initiation of e-cigarettes, how is FDA going to help adult combusted cigarette smokers have access to e-cigarettes that allow them to switch away from smoking to vaping?

Eventually, there needs to be a transition to a regulated marketplace. A paper presented at the summit offered an interesting perspective: “With the PMTA process for ENDS now fully underway, the United States is on the verge of a transformed ENDS marketplace – one in which the products lawfully on the market are there because FDA has reviewed the scientific evidence and found their availability to be appropriate for the protection of public health (APPH), and company marketing is subject to heightened oversight by FDA. The combined efforts of FDA and PMTA applicants have created increased potential for such ENDS determined to be APPH to be embraced by the evidence-based public health community as preferable alternatives to combustion cigarettes – and help make smoking history.”

Speakers said cigarette smoking is commonly viewed as a chronic, relapsing problem requiring long-term, repeated attention and multiple quit attempts. Yet the question of whether e-cigarettes may assist with cessation is often examined with a binary, single event, “all or nothing” lens. There may be advantages of using e-cigarettes within a relapse prevention/recovery of smoking abstinence framework when more adaptively used in targeted, individually tailored situations. There are potential approaches of how e-cigarettes can be used in sequential quit attempts to promote abstinence following smoking lapses; the potential role of transitions in self-identity away from being a “smoker”; and research designs to maximize more targeted and tailored approaches to help identify a role for e-cigarettes.

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