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Pakistan suspends 40 Frontier Corps officials for CPEC corruption

Islamabad: Forty officers of the Pakistani paramilitary forces have been suspended and twenty others are being investigated for financial corruption in Balochistan projects.

Sources within Pakistan government told News Intervention that forty personnel of the Frontier Corps (FC) South Balochistan who were posted in Makran Division have been suspended after allegations of financial corruption were proved against them, while twenty FC personnel are under investigation for financial corruption. These high-ranking Frontier Corps personnel are accused of embezzlement of funds in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.

The Inspector General Frontier Corps (IGFC) South Balochistan Major General Sarfraz launched an investigation after reports of widespread corruption and looting in the CPEC project came to light. “The investigation revealed that 40 FC officials stationed in South Balochistan, including Kech, Gwadar and Panjgur districts, were found guilty to be regularly involved in financial corruption,” a high ranking official in Islamabad told News Intervention.

These forty accused officers were suspended from their posts when the evidence and documents presented against them proved to be true, while the investigations are currently underway against 20 other FC accused of corruption in the CPEC project. Pakistani sources said that several accused officials got themselves transferred to other cities by using “influential sources” after the investigations were initiated by the IG Frontier Corps Major General Sarfraz.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an approximately $64 billion project based mostly in southern Balochistan. Therefore, Pakistan started strengthening its military siege in the southern part of Balochistan from the beginning of the project, and during this time Frontier Corps stationed in Southern Balochistan was named FC South. Turbat was made its headquarters, where hundreds of new outposts and checkposts were set up and along with this there was a substantial increase in military activities.

Balochistan’s parliamentarians had also stated that billions of dollars were given to Pakistan by China in the name of CPEC. While the provincial government has remained completely indifferent the Pakistan Army has commenced the work. Even the tenders of road construction were awarded to the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), which is a subsidiary of the Pakistan Army, said the government sources within Pakistan.

Pakistan government sources further added that the FWO has built Gwadar to Hoshap M8 Road and further from there the N95 Road. “These roads are just some ordinary two-lane roads which are not eligible for a big project like the CPEC. Also, all the small and big bridges built on that road were have already collapsed within a year of their construction,” the Pakistan government official explained.

“Nowhere will you see two-lane roads on the CPEC project. These two-lane roads are not useful for local journeys due to their poor construction and maintenance. I am astonished by the audacity of corruption by these Frontier Corps officials,” the Pakistan government official added.

Dr Saifullah killed, terror outfit Hizbul leaderless: DGP Dilbag Singh

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Srinagar: Terming the killing of terrorist Dr Saifullah as one of big successes,  JK Director General of Police, Dilbag Singh said on Sunday that the terror outfit Hizbul is once again leaderless. DGP Singh said during a presser at Jammu & Kashmir’s capital that the operation, launched jointly by the police, army and CRPF in Rangreth area of Srinagar, was a major success as the “dreaded” terrorist —Dr Saifullah was neutralized during the operation.

He said that many people would heave a sigh of relief as they had lost their loved ones and a shadow of grief and mourning had descended on their families due to Dr Saifullah.

DGP said that Dr Saifullah was a top and longest surviving terror commander in the valley and he was involved in the killing of several innocent people.

“He was active since 2014 when Burhan Wani was leading the Hizbul Mujahideen militant outfit and that is why after the killing of Hizbul chief Reyaz Naikoo on May 6 this year, he was given the charge of chief operational commander in the valley. He was in the list of dreaded militants even before taking the command of Hizbul Mujahideen,” the DGP said.

“Dr Saifullah was also involved in the killing of various innocent people including three policemen, two truck drivers who were attacked after the abrogation of Article 370 in which a truck driver and a conductor were killed. He was also involved in the recent attack on a sarpanch, who got injured in Kulgam district,” the DGP said. 

DGP Singh said that he was also behind the killing of three BJP workers who were killed in a terror attack in Kulgam district this week and he was involved around a dozen cases of terrorism. He added that Dr Saifullah was also involved in recent attacks on various security installations across the Kashmir Valley.

“We were tracking his movement from the last two days and I would like to congratulate Anantnag police for tracking his movement and sharing the inputs with Srinagar police and today we finally managed to neutralize him,” he said. 

Replying to a question, Dilbag Singh said that more than 200 terrorists have been killed this year so far in Jammu and Kashmir, which includes 190 in the Kashmir valley and over a dozen in Jammu division.

He also said that anti-terrorist operations like last year would continue even during the winter and would be carried out with more vigour and severity.

DGP explained that after the killing of Reyaz Naikoo, Hizbul Mujahideen had become leaderless and now after the killing of Dr Saifullah, it has become leaderless once again.

Replying to a question, DGP said that forces had inputs that Dr Saifullah and his men were planning to attack some more security installations and civilian areas in the valley.

The Fantastic Capacity for Believing the Incredible

Creationism and Intelligent Design are primarily an Abrahamic-religion-created problem. They come, most often, out of white Evangelical Christianity, Protestant Christianity, followed by other Christian denominations and then in the form of some Islamic creationists and Intelligent Design advocates. There has been, recently, the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON), as one Intelligent Design promoting society based on the religious beliefs of the Hare Krishnas. Several organizations exist devoted to the movement for the pseudoscientific and genericized theological position: The Center for Science and Culture (formerly Center for the Renewal of Science and Culture) of the Discovery Institute, Access Research Network, the Foundation for Thought and Ethics, the Intelligent Design and Evolution Awareness Center, and the Intelligent Design Network, while others specifically devote themselves to Creationism such as the Institute for Creation Research, Answers in Genesis, Creation Ministries International, and Creation Science Evangelism. Even societies emerged, for example, the International Society for Complexity, Information, and Design (ISCID) contains numerous individuals deeply involved, even as fellows, including Michael Behe, John Angus Campbell, Robin Collins, Bruce L. Gordon, Muzaffar Iqbal, William Lane Craig, William A. Dembski, Scott Minnich, Alvin Plantinga, Jonathan Wells, Jeffrey M. Schwartz, and lesser-known others. On home turf, in Canadian society, we come to the issues of Creationism and Intelligent Design, too, with a center of the storm in Langley, British Columbia, Canada, through Trinity Western University. All these can be drivers of public ignorance on the subject matter of evolution via natural selection.

Examination of the American context is informative for the Canadian environs. According to Marshall Berman in “Intelligent Design: The New Creationism Threatens All of Science and Society“ in APS News (APS Physics), circa 2001 via Gallup polls, 45% of Americans believe the following statement: “God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.” It’s about half as many Canadians compared now. Only about 1/5 hold similar views. As noted in “Freethought for the Small Towns: A Case Study“[1], the heart of Evangelical Christianity in Canadian society, probably, comes in the form of the private Evangelical Christian university Trinity Western University and the surrounding communities with one found in Fort Langley, a lovely community village and a National Historic Site, which happens to exists on the periphery of Trinity Western University’s fundamentalist Evangelical community, higher education, and doctrinal mandates for community seen in their “Community Covenant“ and “Statement of Faith.” The “Community Covenant” stipulates:

The University’s mission, core values, curriculum and community life are formed by a firm commitment to the person and work of Jesus Christ as declared in the Bible… The University is an interrelated academic community rooted in the evangelical Protestant tradition; it is made up of Christian administrators (including the members of the Board of Governors), faculty and staff who covenant together to form a community that strives to live according to biblical precepts, believing that this will optimize the University’s capacity to fulfil its mission and achieve its aspirations. The community covenant is a solemn pledge in which members place themselves under obligations… By doing so, members accept reciprocal benefits and mutual responsibilities… It is vital that each person who accepts the invitation to become a member of the TWU community carefully considers and sincerely embraces this community covenant… The University’s acceptance of the Bible as the divinely inspired, authoritative guide for personal and community life1 is foundational to its affirmation that people flourish and most fully reach their potential when they delight in seeking God’s purposes, and when they renounce and resist the things that stand in the way of those purposes being fulfilled… TWU reserves the right to question, challenge or discipline any member in response to actions that impact personal or social welfaresexual intimacy is reserved for marriage between one man and one woman, and within that marriage bond it is God’s intention that it be enjoyed as a means for marital intimacy and procreation… This formal covenant applies to those that serve the TWU community, that is, administrators, faculty and staff employed by TWU and its affiliates. Unless specifically stated otherwise, expectations of this covenant apply to both on and off TWU’s campus and extension sites. Sincerely embracing every part of this covenant is a requirement for employment. Employees who sign this covenant also commit themselves to abide by campus policies published in their respective Faculty and Staff Handbooks. TWU welcomes all students who qualify for admission, recognizing that not all affirm the theological views that are vital to the University’s Christian identity. While students are not required to sign this covenant, they have chosen to be educated within a Christian university that unites reason and faith. [Emphasis added.]

Within this community framework built or constructed by the “Community Covenant,” by fear of inability to become employed at Trinity Western University, as in “embracing every part of this covenant is requirement for employment,” all facets of this theological and social covenant must be agreed to – without qualms. As was expressed to me, “If I don’t sign the covenant, I don’t get a [work] contract.” As I have heard, one individual who worked at Trinity Western University and got divorced while employed, but who, as an employee, signed the contract. Thus, she was given a time limit to leave the position because of breaking community standards for something in personal life, i.e., getting divorced. This is an anecdote, not a charge, but this does raise alarms about internal culture. Be mindful, students had to sign this in previous times, as early as 2018.

However, the mandatory status for students was removed once Trinity Western University lost the Supreme Court of Canada case for its proposed law school 7-2. It was seen as an overwhelming loss and embarrassment to the community, as much legitimacy and respectability hinged on its success as an institution representative of Evangelical Christian postsecondary liberal arts education in the nation. In addition to the “Community Covenant,” the “Statement of Faith” makes similar statements about the explicit faith-based nature of the enterprise:

God’s gospel originates in and expresses the wondrous perfections of the eternal, triune God… God’s gospel is authoritatively revealed in the Scriptures… God’s gospel alone addresses our deepest need… God’s gospel is made known supremely in the Person of Jesus Christ… God’s gospel is accomplished through the work of Christ… God’s gospel is applied by the power of the Holy Spirit… God’s gospel is now embodied in the new community called the church… God’s gospel compels us to Christ-like living and witness to the world… God’s gospel will be brought to fulfillment by the Lord Himself at the end of this age… God’s gospel requires a response that has eternal consequences.

Overall, the nature of the covenant and the statement make the coercive nature of the private religious, Evangelical, in particular, institution much clearer. The Canadian Association of University Teachers found much the same years ago. (We will explore this in future articles.)

Its surrounding environs in Langley, including Fort Langley may be undergoing a retitling – attempted – by some work of the Township of Langley Council[2] through naming of a larger “University District,” as part of an expansionist vision for the Evangelical post-secondary institution. Noting, of course, it’s a private religious university, not public. In this sense, private religious forces using public cachet and political efforts to drop an illegitimate curtain of religious and ideological association on the entire area if this happens. It’s unfair, unjust, and shouldn’t happen at all, in my opinion. The most comprehensive statement on creationism within Canadian society exists in “Canadians’ and Others’ Convictions to Divine Interventionism in the Matters of the Origins and Evolution“[3].

Now, to be clear, on Creationism and Intelligent Design as such, RationalWiki lists several scientific organizations, as a contrast to the creationist and intelligent design advocate organizations mentioned above, making explicit rejection of the claims of Creationism and Intelligent Design, including the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Association of University Professors, American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Psychological Association, American Society of Agronomy, American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Botanical Society of America, Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology, National Association of Biology Teachers, National Center for Science Education, National Science Teachers Association, United States National Academy of Sciences, Kentucky Academy of Science, Kentucky Paleontological Society, Lehigh University Department of Biological Sciences, Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity Nobel Laureates Initiative, Council of Europe, Intelligent Design is not Science Initiative, Interacademy Panel Statement on the Teaching of Evolution, International Society for Science and Religion, Project Steve, Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, and the Royal Society. There’s no question. Intelligent Design and Creationism are pseudoscientific views, theological proposals, not scientific theories or even simple hypotheses. To quote one of the core intellectual founders of Intelligent Design – and a nice and intelligent man, Dr. William Dembski, “I believe God created the world for a purpose. The Designer of intelligent design is, ultimately, the Christian God.” [Emphasis added.] Thusly, for any higher education institution to so much as entertain that which is duly rejected as comical to the vast majority of practicing biologists and biology teachers is a disgrace to the value of “higher” in “higher education,” as I will present, these views have been encouraged unduly at Trinity Western University, and the community value statement and covenant prevent open speaking out against particular areas of academic silliness and prejudice because everyone is bound together in a coercive setup. No question about it.

So, Langley comes inter-related with some of the other communities, including some of the fundamentalist communities in Abbotsford. Those fundamentalist communities of Abbotsford link to the creationist communities in the area. As Andres Michael McKinnon in “Civil Society, public spheres and the ecology of environmentalism in four Fraser Valley communities: Burnaby, Richmond, Langley and Abbotsford” (1997) stated, “Local issues have been even more shaped by conservative religion: the Abbotsford school board tried to mandate ‘Creationism’ being taught in public school classrooms; a Lower Mainland gay weekly, X-tra West was banned from Abbotsford Public Libraries in 1994; activism on “conservative” moral issues such as abortion, euthanasia and violence on television is significant; prayer in public schools continued in most District 34 public elementary school classrooms until very recently, despite a Supreme Court Injunction; and a play by a local high-school student which openly discussed sexuality was banned by the school board. If Abbotsford is a very religious community, it is also, as Elliott and Simpson suggest, “a town divided into a series of relatively insulated communities organised around religion and ethnicity.” Conservative religious communities in one region connect to another.

It should be noted. The history comes with individuals running for schools boards. For example, when Dr. Darrell Furgason (Ph.D., Religious Studies) ran for the Chilliwack, British Columbia, school board, he is known as a lecturer at Trinity Western University, involved in education for more than 35 years, and who expresses open belief in “Biblical creationism, often referred to as Young Earth creationism” to quote Paul Henderson in “Biblical creationist joins Chilliwack school board race“ (The Chilliwack Progress). In a post on Creation.Com, he stated, “Theistic evolution is a wrong view of Genesis, as well as history, and biology. Adam & Eve were real people….who lived in real history….around 6000 [sic] years ago.” A lot of the creationist controversies start in this Bible Belt as a center of Canadian versions of Creationism.

As stated by Chris Woods in “Big Bang versus a Big Being,” “Certainly, this is far from the collision between Christian and secular morality in a region widely considered to be British Columbia’s Bible Belt… the area’s dozens of evangelical and fundamentalist churches, Bible colleges and flourishing private Christian schools reinforce its reputation for deep religious faith. That image has been bolstered by previous controversies.” Woods spoke of the attempts (circa 1995) to “ban a weekly gay and lesbian-oriented newspaper published in Vancouver from its shelves.” He continued, “Observed Cindy Filipenko, editor of the since-reinstated X-tra West: “I think the religious right has an agenda that is, basically, freedom for themselves and not for anybody else.” It’s a fascinating article.

Further, he found 56% of people from Abbotsford (of the time) believed the Bible was the “literal record of God’s word” based on a CV Marketing Research of Abbotsford poll of 110 people taken in November of 1993. Vancouver MarketTrend Research discovered 55% of people in the Lower Mainland believed “government should do more to support basic Christian values.” These are theocratically minded sentiments with the idea of non-separation of government and religion, i.e., non-neutrality. At the time, John Sutherland was the dean of business management at Trinity Western University and the Chair of the Abbotsford school board. He gave Bible classes within the Mennonite religion. The Vice-Chairman of the School board was Paul Chamberlain, who was another evangelical-minded Trinity Western faculty member. One school trustee of the time, Gerda Fandrich – an Evangelical Christian, stated, “There is scientific evidence that will support creationist theory, and there is scientific evidence against the theory of evolution in its entirety. And it should be taught.” When is a school board obliged to vote out scientifically ignorant or incompetent people out of it? We’re talking about the educational health and scientific literacy of the region, as well as the preservation of freedom of religion via the separation of religion and government.

It comes out in the national commentary or the comments on the national happenings of the country. The Governor General a couple years ago spoke out, calmly, and with a tinge of humor against pseudoscience. Dr. John Neufeld in “Governor General Julie Payette of Canada Mocks Creationism“ from Back to the Bible Canada stated, “Julie Payette is Canada’s new Governor General. At a recent speech to scientists at an Ottawa convention, Ms. Payette was very clear about how she felt about religion. She mocked those who were still debating about whether life came about as a result of divine intervention rather than natural processes.” That’s the opening statement and a common ignorant statement throughout Canada. At least, 1/5 Canadians hold creationist views. These are anti-scientific. When a credentialed and respectable woman critiques Creationism, not the religious individuals who adhere to it, educated and articulate people, as with Neufeld, conflate the critique of Creationism with critical and condescending attitudes about religious people; this presents the reality of the individuals’ views of (their) religion in Canada, i.e., as intrinsically adherent to creationist accounts rather than evolutionary plus theistic perspectives. It is, tacitly, to admit of the anti-scientific attitudes and stances of many theists in the country, including Neufeld. It is to take offense rather than provide a defense, or to take on the persistent garb among some educated classes of anti-intellectualism.

As seems reasonably clear, especially for individuals who read the first footnote (below) in detail, the connection between the lack of critical thinking in the places of worship, as in faith-based lectern lectures or homilies on the nature of reality and morality, and then the influence on the capacity for critical thought in the wider community. This seems to happen in the advanced industrial societies in which religion, traditional as such, maintains its large hold on the majority of the mind of the population. We can draw this back to the post-colonial context of Canada. According to Pew Research in “5 facts about religion in Canada,” Canadians continue to maintain their religious fervor as a population. More than half, about 55%, of Canadians, based on the Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey as reported by Pew Research, identify as Christian, while 29% adhere to the category of “religiously unaffiliated,” 14% identify as “Other,” and 2% don’t know. More precisely, “A declining share of Canadians identify as Christians, while an increasing share say they have no religion – similar to trends in the United States and Western Europe,”  “Our most recent survey in Canada, conducted in 2018, found that a slim majority of Canadian adults (55%) say they are Christian, including 29% who are Catholic and 18% who are Protestant. About three-in-ten Canadians say they are either atheist (8%), agnostic (5%) or “nothing in particular” (16%). Canadian census data indicate that the share of Canadians in this “religiously unaffiliated” category rose from 4% in 1971 to 24% in 2011, although it is lowest in Quebec.” With this decline in Christian religious affiliation in Canada, the number of Canadians who identify as Christian should collapse to below simple majority circa some time in 2020/2021.

These demographic declines may produce some forms of belligerent politico-religious identity. In fact, given the evidence, they have done so in the past. Bruce Myers in “Beware the rise of the ‘theo-cons’“ reviewed The Rise of Christian Nationalism in Canada by Marci McDonald. He warned about aspects of Evangelical Christians and Christian Nationalism. He stated:

For a long time disparate and unorganized, conservative-minded Christians in Canada found a single voice in the national debate over same-sex marriage. Their unified opposition galvanized them into a political force to be reckoned with, and one courted more and more by the federal Conservatives.

Inspired by successful examples in the U.S., efforts by so-called Christian nationalists to influence Canadian public policy have increased since Stephen Harper’s Tories took office, McDonald argues. Notably, a growing number of socially conservative Christian organizations have in recent years established a permanent presence in Ottawa. They include such groups as Focus on the Family Canada, the National House of Prayer, and Trinity Western University’s Laurentian Leadership Centre.

These efforts, McDonald says, are aimed at finding their fulfilment in what she calls the “Armageddon factor or the belief that Canada has some particularly significant role to play during the so-called ‘end times.’ “ For those who believe, fulfilling this destiny means transforming Canada into nothing less than a “Bible-based theocracy.”

However, this isn’t a unified trend. In fact, we come to the idea of pluralization of religion in Canadian society with the inclusion of other faiths in the demographic placement of the hole previously filled in the national demographic pie by Christianity. Pew Research reports this is largely due to immigration. Muslims, Hindus, Jews, and Buddhists, comprise 8% of Canadian adults. If the trends continue, or if the adult demographics are indicative of the youth bulge, then the freethought community, and the Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Jewish, and Buddhist communities take a larger portion of the upcoming young generations. “Most Canadians” see religion in public life as a waning influence in the country with 64% stipulating that it plays a less important role in the country than in years prior. Canadians are ambivalent as to whether it is a positive or negative net influence on society. In spite of this emotive ambiguity, there are “low levels of government restrictions on religion.” Also, even with these proclaimed religious individuals, or perceived levels of engagement in religious self-identification, few Canadians truly take part, frequently, in the traditional religious practices including prayer daily or worship once per week. Canadians probably can’t be seen, by and large, as a religious people, though can be seen as a largely religious identifying people in the nation. That’s all Pew Research. This can raise some intriguing side questions about the nature, not of religion per se, but, more precisely, of the nature of religious identity based on these demographic trends and the formulations of religious identification.

As the ongoing polarization of the communities of the United States continue apace, some of the similar trends continue in Canadian society with the collapse of Christianity as a significant majority piece of the religious and non-religious demographic pie. What’s the relevance to all of this to Creationism and Intelligent Design? Quite simply, it’s the association betwixt the two and the Evangelical religious universities; as a Canadian, and as a local, these become relevant subject matters. How is, dear reader, there encouragement of Creationism in higher education? Why should it stop? The latter is easier to answer than the former, “It’s wrong, not science, and catastrophically embarrassing on the grounds of any post-secondary institution, private or public, in Canadian society, to many Christians, other faithful people, and the freethought communities (specially so).” To the former, let’s sit down and chat a while, the answers exist, though. Would invitations for talks by creationists or teaching courses friendly to the content make the point? These shouldn’t happen at a respectable institution. In fact, most of the presentations and lectures by creationists happen at churches more than anywhere else based on a national analysis in previous research.

Intelligent Design is rooted in religion. As R.N. Carmona in “The Evidence for Evolution: A Succinct Introduction for Denialists“ said, “The lack of success of these views is literally the tip of the iceberg. That they’re not successful isn’t what determines that they’re pseudoscience. Pick any of the demarcation theories put forth by philosophers of science and you’ll find that creationism and ID don’t meet the requirements to pass as science. Take, for example, Popper’s falsification. Can we falsify the intelligent designer who, according to many ID advocates, is the Judeo-Christian god? What matters here is not whether a naturalist or an atheist can falsify him. What matters is whether ID advocates are willing to attempt falsification of the intelligent designer. Since their view is rooted in religion, we can be reasonably certain that they’re not going to attempt to falsify the intelligent designer.”

It impacts education. Frederika Oosterhoff expressed concern in “Teaching Evolution At Our Schools – Why and How“ about interpretations of Scripture and teaching evolution in Reformed Academic (Canadian Reformed Church). Oosterhoof said, “Evolution can be taught and evaluated in a straightforward manner as a well-established biological theory that has weaknesses as well as strengths. It can also be taught and then explained away – and I am afraid this is done at some of our schools – as lie and deception, the devil’s own work. Related to this second approach is enlisting the help of certain videos and other material provided by young-earth-creationism. As one principal told me, these ‘creation-science’ products are quite popular in our schools. Indeed, young-earth creationism is widely upheld as ‘Reformed doctrine.’ Often, the principal wrote, schools use the material to make evolution look “stupid,” something we can chuckle about…” It’s a sad state of affairs and a depressing commentary of the status of the churches and Christian religious communities in North America.

On March 9 2019 from 7:00pm to 9:00pm, Trinity Western University hosted “EVOLUTIONARY AND YOUNG-EARTH CREATIONISM: TWO SEPARATE LECTURES.” It stated, “All are welcome to attend, Public Lecture, hosted by TWU’s ‘Science, Faith, and Human Flourishing: Conversations in Community Initiative,’ supported by Fuller Seminary, Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, and the Canadian Scientific & Christian Affiliation, “Evolutionary and Young-Earth Creationism: Two Separate Lectures” (Darrel Falk[4], “Evolution, Creation and the God Who is Love” and Todd Wood, “The Quest: Understanding God’s Creation in Science and Scripture”).” Todd C. Wood is the Founding President of the Core Academic of Science, and a young earth creationist. Darrel R. Falk is an Emeritus Professor of Biology at Point Loma Nazarene University, and an evolutionary creationist. Two creationists invited to ‘educate’ about their ‘theories,’ more theological argument than anything else. Several events with them including “Evolutionary Creation & Young-Earth Creationism.” It stated:

If humans and all forms of life were created through the evolutionary process—and the evidence for this is very strong—it presents a potential dilemma for Christians. Why would the God who taught us to love the weak and feed the hungry, the God who told us that the meek shall inherit the earth seemingly create humankind through the seemingly heartless process sometimes referred to as “survival of the fittest?”

These are interesting times in evolutionary biology. The discipline has itself been evolving and many of its leaders are recognizing the significance sometimes of cooperation as a dynamic and important component of the evolutionary process. Indeed, it is becoming increasingly clear that a key driving component in the change that has taken place in our lineage—the hominin lineage—for at least three million years has been the importance of individuals being able to work together as a communal unit within small groups. Some scholars would even go so far as to say it is the “Secret of Our Success.” Perhaps—this talk will suggest—biological fitness in our lineage is not that different than the qualities that Jesus laid out as being central to the Christian life. We’ll explore the evidence for this. But more than that, we’ll also explore the question of the nature of divine action in the ongoing history of creation. As Christians we believe that God is an active, even personal presence in our lives through the Holy Spirit. Is there some form of consistency between the God we believe we experience in our individual lives, and the activity of the God who was present and active hundreds of thousand to millions of years ago? This is a key question for Christians to think about and this talk will explore possible answers.

Another event entitled “Science and Faith: A Conversation in Community, With Darrel Falk & Todd Wood,” with the last event entitled “The Fool, the Heretic, and the God Whose Standard is Love.” It, the last one, stated:

Discussions of the science and theology of creation has been the source of strenuous conflicts among Christians.  Darrel Falk and Todd Wood are Christians who hold different positions on creation, and hold them strongly.  However, with a shared bond in Christ, through a series of conversations facilitated by The Colossian Forum, they have developed an ability to communicate well, care for one another, and pursue truth and love in edifying ways.

More on Their Co-Authored Book:

In a brief, memoir-like narrative, The Fool and the Heretic tracks the improbable relationship between two scientists who not only hold opposing views on their deeply held views of origins, but believe each is doing serious damage to the church. The book is a deeply personal story told by two respected scientists who hold opposing views on the topic of origins, share a common faith in Jesus Christ, and began a sometimes-painful journey to explore how they can remain in Christian fellowship when each thinks the other is harming the church. To some in the church, anyone who accepts the theory of evolution has rejected biblical teaching and is therefore thought of as a heretic. To many outside the church as well as a growing number of evangelicals, anyone who accepts the view that God created the earth in six days a few thousand years ago must be poorly educated and ignorant–a fool. Todd Wood and Darrel Falk know what it’s like to be thought of, respectively, as a fool and a heretic. This book shares their pain in wearing those labels, but more important, provides a model for how faithful Christians can hold opposing views on deeply divisive issues yet grow deeper in their relationship to each other and to God. (source)

Wood provided some post-event commentary in “Further thoughts from Trinity Western University.” If this isn’t too much, even more, they have a stipulated course, SCS 691 – Creationism Field Trip, i.e., an upper-level course devoted, specifically, to Creationism. Trinity Western University has another course entitled “SCS 503 – Creationism & Christainity [sic] (Korean)” Both are 3-credit courses. There are exceptions, though, outstanding people.

One of my favourite people, Professor Dennis Venema, works at the institution and gives talks entitled “Why I Accept Evolution (and Why You Probably Should As Well).” Stuff like this is great, and should be commended. It’s a difficult balance. To some respectable degree, he pulls it off. The abstract states:

Evolution is both a well-attested scientific theory and an area of science commonly disputed by Christians. Is it “compromise” or “capitulation” for a believer to accept the findings of evolutionary biology? Should Christians fight against evolutionary theory using “creationism” or “Intelligent Design”? Do the arguments of ID proponents such as Michael Behe, Stephen Meyer, and William Lane Craig stand up to scrutiny? Is an evolutionary understanding of creation in conflict with scripture? This talk will address these questions and argue that Christians are better served by adopting evolutionary creationism as a model for human origins.

Venema does a tremendous service in the community because of the presentation of the reality of evolution via natural selection in an environment in which Creationism – young and old – and Intelligent Design have become seen as differing base perspectives on the fundamental nature of biological reality. Each directing attention to the divine hand of God in some form or another. In Christian Week, Venema stated, “Evolution is so well supported, and the evidence for it so compelling, that one cannot reject evolution and claim to have an up-to-date view of science.” Now,  You can get obtuse comparisons, as with Michael Gohen in “Science and Scripture: What do we do with conflict?”, who made the explicit claim of the equivalency of validity of the evidence for God in the Bible and in the geological sciences. He concluded in the presentation, “Evolutionary theory is damaging to church’s life especially as it assumes the status of full-blown worldview… Absorption of Scripture into scientific worldview (Scripture must remain final authority!)…”

Unfortunately, as with many Christian perspectives on these matters, they’re simply wrong solely for the fact of infusion of theology as the explanatory gap in which the ‘gap’ does not amount to a gap at all. Evolution via natural selection filled several mechanism gaps previously handed to God on High as the explanatory filter. Yet, as an Evangelical institution, as part of the same event with Professor Venema, there was the inclusion of a response by Dr. Paul Brown “from an Intelligent Design perspective“ to the presentation by Professor Venema. Here’s the problem, to present an Intelligent Design view gives the illusion of a ‘debate’ in which no debate exists, there’s only one game in the scientific town: evolution via natural selection. It’s a disservice to community and a misrepresentation of the state of the science. Venema is intelligent, conscientious, soft-spoken, and aware.

“As a Christian and a scientist, I have long been perplexed by the desire that many Christians have for apologetics arguments made by those without training or expertise in the area under discussion. Unfortunately, most Christians don’t know enough about evolutionary biology or population genetics to know if the apologetics they are reading is sound,” Professor Venema in BioLogos stated, “One of the reasons for this series . . . is to try to help reverse that trend. Once one understands the relevant science, one is in a much better position to evaluate an apologetics argument as helpful or misguided.”

Venema was announced as the 2019 Scientist in Residence at the Canadian Mennonite University (CMU). In his announcement of the position, he stated, “‘I’m thrilled to be invited to be the Scientist in Residence at CMU for 2019. I think it’s a wonderful opportunity for students, and I am honoured to join a prestigious group of prior participants,’ he says. ‘I hope that these conversations can help students along the path to embracing both God’s word and God’s world as a source of reliable revelation to us.’”

Venema ruffled many feathers, too. John Blanton in “The Years of Living Stupidly” stated, “the background is fascinating, but the intent of Evolution News is to demonstrate that Venema is wrong—genetic similarity does not indicate common descent. Evolution News sometime ago quit identifying authors, but whoever posted this item failed to get the message. Traditionally, Intelligent Design, a concoction of the Discovery Institute, does not rule out common ancestry. These people tend to allow for that, but they also want us to know that natural, and especially random, process are not at work.” They threw Venema over the cliff for attempting modern reconciliation with the science and the updated readings of his scriptures.

Even the Ethics & Public Policy Center’s Michael Cromartie in “Jeff Hardin at the November 2014 Faith Angle Forum” took note of Venema, he stated, “Now, there are challenges with Young Earth creationism, of course… This is Paul Nelson, who is a Young Earth creationist.  He is also associated with the Discovery Institute in Seattle, Washington.  He says it this way; this is succinctly put: ‘Natural science seems to overwhelmingly point to an old cosmos.  It is safe to say that most recent creationists are motivated by religious concerns.’  That’s absolutely true.  So the evidence, even for a young Earth creationist like Paul, seems to point against it. People who are trying educate Christian students about this encounter an interesting phenomenon.  Take Dennis Venema, who is a professor of biology at Trinity Western University up in British Columbia. He said it this way: ‘I’ve seen students willing to discard nearly the entirety of modern science in order to maintain a particular view.’  So one of the challenges from denying the scientific evidence is that you kind of have to walk away from those things that science seems to be telling us.” That which science appears to tell, or, perhaps, explicitly and overwhelmingly supports.

As Amos Young in “Adam and the Genome: Reading Scripture after Genetic Science” observes, “He exposes the challenges that population genetics and research on the genome present to both young earth creationist and intelligent design advocates, addressing specifically the arguments of Michael Behe (whose ideas Venema embraced at one point in his studies as a young and aspiring biologist) and Stephen Meyer, both of whom represent God-of-the-gaps approaches that have waylaid prior apologetic endeavors. Some of the terrain is dense, but evangelical Christians interested in understanding better the science of evolutionary genomics will be richly rewarded for their patience.” Venema is one of my favourite people because of the deeper involvement in the more sophisticated creationist communities, as seen in Intelligent Design, while rejecting them and becoming a science educator and theological bridge divider in the process, where he functions in this capacity in the heart of Evangelicalism in Canada. It’s impressive.

It should be noted. As John Farrell of Forbes in “‘Adam And The Genome’ Offers A New Approach To Counter Creationism” states, Dennis Venema grew up in a conservative religious home, where the Bible was considered the literal truth of the creator of the human species. So, Venema is coming out of this steep involvement in Christianity. A formulation of Christian doctrine and faith, which he would, eventually, reject and/or adapt to modern biological science. Farrell quotes Venema, “Put most simply, DNA evidence indicates that humans descend from a large population because we, as a species, are so genetically diverse in the present day that a large ancestral population is needed to transmit that diversity to us. To date, every genetic analysis estimating ancestral population sizes has agreed that we descend from a population of thousands, not a single ancestral couple. Even though many of these methods are independent of one another, all methods employed to date agree that the human lineage has not dipped below several thousand individuals for the last three million years or more—long before our lineage was even remotely close to what we would call ‘human.’”

Colleagues argue for a framework incorporating a “secular science” ideational divide with, by logical derivation, the idea of theological science on the other side, at times, which doesn’t hold water. For example, R. Scott Clark in “Revisiting the URC Creation Decision“ talks about the Bylogos commentary of Professor of Mathematics, Dr. John Byl, of Trinity Western University. He presents an intelligent, articulate, and engaging commentary on the subject matter. Yet, when reviewing Byl’s commentary in “The Framework Hypothesis and Church Unity,” all this seems as if a huge waste of time and space. These wouldn’t have to be major issues to tackle, except in the light of fundamentalist theology, as such, usually irreconcilable with evolutionary theory or modern biological science. As Byl, in the original article, states, “Church unity should be based on mutual faithfulness to Scripture. The Framework Hypothesis denies the plain sense of Scripture (cf. Gen.1, Ex.20:11, Ex.31:17) and introduces a new hermeneutic that interprets the Bible in light of secular science,” which is – ahem – unfortunate. There’s no secular science; unless, your religion is anti-science, where the implication is the religion incorporates anti-scientific ideas (forms of Creationism and Intelligent Design) leading to the clear irreconcilability.

Sometimes, the waters are so muddy, mixed, and confused as to leave one baffled at otherwise intelligent and thoughtful commentary dip into the heady waters of parsing further non-sense from the first non-sense. Derivative non-sense is still non-sense. Robert Stackpole presents part of the fundamental issue, not by statement but, by the implication of the statement about evolution and Creationism, and Intelligent Design. He, in “Reflecting on Creation and the Cross with our Evangelical Friends,” states:

Well, in a nutshell, I agree that Young-Earth Creationism, well-intentioned as it is, is indeed biblically unnecessary and scientifically very problematic — and I am afraid that pursuing this position is one of the things that has tarnished the reputation of Evangelicals as being anti-science (or at least, failing to take science very seriously). But what the Catholic Evolutionist party-line rarely adds is that Young Earth Creationism is not the only other option. There are other forms of creationism which I found to be far more convincing, both on biblical and on scientific grounds — such as Old Earth or Progressive Creationism — positions which have been explored and developed in depth and detail by some Evangelical scholars, and that actually fit remarkably well with the findings of the new “Intelligent Design” movement in science and philosophy. As a result, I spent a couple of years researching this option, and co-authored a book on the subject with an Evangelical biochemist from Trinity Western University, Dr. Paul Brown. Entitled More Than Myth: seeking the full truth about Genesis, Creation and Evolution (Chartwell Press, 2014). Our book is an ecumenical milestone, as far as we know: the first ever collaboration on this subject by Catholic and Evangelical scholars.

He looks at all the wrong ideas, fervently, including “Young-Earth Creationism,” ‘Old Earth Creationism,’ “Progressive Creationism,” and “Intelligent Design.” His world becomes more complex than necessary and leads to a series of incorrect pathways of thoughts in terms of coming to some approximation of the truth. (He wrote this mentioned book in collaboration with Dr. Paul Brown from Trinity Western University.) The trends of promoting pseudoscience continues in connection with this particular Evangelical Christian University.

There is good work by some other individuals, too, not simply Venema, e.g., Professor Craig D. Allert (Religious Studies) of Trinity Western University produced the book entitled Revelation, Truth, Canon and Interpretation: Studies in Justin Martyr’s Dialogue with Trypho (2002). According to Philip J. Long in “Book Review: Craig D. Allert, Early Christian Readings of Genesis One,” he draws heavily on resources from Answers in Genesis (AiG), Institute for Creation Research (ICR), and Creation Ministries International (CMI), i.e., several of the major creationist organizations mentioned above. He provides reason to critique them.

Even politically, this pops up. Peter O’Neil in the National Post reported on this in “Canadians who believe in creation ‘gagged,’ B.C. MP charges.” Including Independent MP James Lunney, he considered millions of Canadians who are creationists as gagged. He stated, “I am tired of seeing my faith community mocked and belittled… To not respond is to validate my accusers and, worse yet, imply that I lack the courage of my convictions to stand up for what I believe. … That is not a legacy I wish to leave behind.” The Canadian Press in “Tory says creationism only ‘one issue’“ stated, “Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory is downplaying his policy on bringing private religious schools into the public system after stirring up controversy with comments on teaching creationism. A day after Tory said creationism could be taught in public religious schools, he says voters shouldn’t just judge him on the basis of his proposal to fund faith-based schools.” It emerged over and over again. It continues, too. If you don’t see it, please look closer.

The anti-scientific is not only political, but educational. David R. Wheeler/David Wheeler in The Atlantic article entitled “Old Earth, Young Minds: Evangelical Homeschoolers Embrace Evolution“ said, “But whatever their reason for homeschooling, evangelical families who embrace modern science are becoming more vocal about it — and are facing the inevitable criticism that comes with that choice.” So, there can be pushback within specific sectors, including large domains of Creationism with American society. It’s like this in several domains. The churches have been bastions of furthering this pseudoscience. While, the Canadian religious institutions, particularly Christian, have been obstinate in furthering anti-science agendas. Yet, it takes individuals like Venema to almost single-handedly provide a bulwark against these onslaughts against proper scientific education. The belief in the incredible takes a fantastic ability to parse one’s mind apart from a unifying framework; it represents a psychologically confused state. These issues are historical, but these concerns are active, present, and will continue into the future.

There have been issues with academic freedom too, in religious private schools, which will be covered in another article.

[1] “Freethought for the Small Towns: A Case Study,” (2020), in large part, states:

Small towns all over Canada mirror many of the dynamics, magical thinking, and reliance on false or pseudo-medicines in place of (actual) or efficacious medicine. Among the local churches in the area, (e.g., Fort Langley Evangelical Free Church, Living Waters Church, Fraser Point Church – Meeting Place, St George’s Anglican Church, United Churches of Langley – St. Andrew’s Chapel, Vineyard Christian Fellowship, Fraser Point Church Offices, Jubilee Church, and Fellowship Pacific) different interpretations of the Gospels may be taught, but the community retains its Christian ‘spirit’ – in spite of a scuffed, mind you, rainbow crosswalk one can find the in the town business center – with many of the 100+ local businesses hiring many, many Trinity Western University students. The economy is integrated with the institution, in other words…

In its recent history, as a starter example, there has been some predictable commentary flowing in the pens and notifications. One from Derek Bisset exhibited a particularly interesting article entitled “There Are Atheists in the Church“ as recent as August 4, 2015. Not necessarily a rare view, it’s more a common sentiment based on the trend line of history and the adaptations for the modern world with Liberal Theology and the tenuous status of some foundational tenets with the continual onslaughts of modern empiricism…

…Issue 48 of the Fort Langley Evangelical Free Church from 2017, they describe an event with The Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation. An organization – The Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation, akin to the Templeton Foundation, devoted to strange attempts at bridging religion and science. Although, the Templeton Foundation comes with a huge cash prize. That’s motivation enough for some. The Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation focuses on science and a “life-giving Christian tradition” with a statement of faith (common in Christian organizations throughout the country):

  • We confess the Triune God affirmed in the Nicene and Apostles’ creeds which we accept as brief, faithful statements of Christian doctrine based upon Scripture.
  • We accept the divine inspiration, trustworthiness and authority of the Bible in matters of faith and conduct.
  • We believe that in creating and preserving the universe God has endowed it with contingent order and intelligibility, the basis of scientific investigation.
  • We recognize our responsibility, as stewards of God’s creation, to use science and technology for the good of humanity and the whole world.
  • These four statements of faith spell out the distinctive character of the CSCA, and we uphold them in every activity and publication of the Affiliation.

As implicitly admitted in the “Commission on Creation” of the American Scientific Affiliation taken by The Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation for presentation to its national public, some members of the affiliation will adhere to a “Young-Earth (Recent Creation) View,” “Old-Earth (Progressive Creation) View,” “Theistic Evolution (Continuous Creation, Evolutionary Creation) View,” or “Intelligent Design View.” There’s the problem right there. Only one real game in town, evolution via natural selection… This becomes four wrong views plus one right position with the four incorrect views bad in different ways or to different degrees, i.e., four theological views and one scientific view. In other words, the Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation, by its own claims and standards, amounts to a theological affiliation, not a “Scientific” affiliation. It’s false advertising if not outright lying by title and content.

Anyway, the Issue 48 newsletter of the Fort Langley Evangelical Free Church presented the event entitled “Science, Religion, & the New Atheism,” by Dr. Stephen Snobelen, who is an Associate Professor of the History of Science and Technology Programme at University of King’s College, Halifax. This is common too… In short, the only places, or the vast majority of places, to present these ideas are churches and religious institutions. Outside of those, these theological hypotheses posed as scientific aren’t taken seriously or, generally, are seen as a hysterical joke when posed as science rather than theology. Some, like Zak Graham in “Atheism is simply a lack of belief,” get the point published in The Langley Times. That seems like an uncommon stance in the wider community.

As Brad Warner notes in a short confessional post in Fellowship Pacific, he came to the Christian religion in university… Even in some indications of the counselling professionals in the area, as an individual case study, statements emerge as in Alex Kwee, Ph.D., R.Psych. stating, “A distinctive of my approach lies in the fact that I am a Christian. The practice of psychotherapy is never value-neutral; even the most ostensibly ‘objective’ of counsellors must possess certain irreducible value propositions—even atheism or secular humanism are value systems that cannot be proven ‘right’ one way or another.” Note, he makes Christianity or Christian identity as part of the approach, as I am certain of the same for countless others in the area and around the country…

…The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-5 or the DSM-5 rejected sex addiction for inclusion in 2013. There’s no such thing as sex addiction as a formal psychological construct; sex addiction is a theological construct, i.e., a pseudoscientific and worldview construct posed as psychological… As Dr. Darrel Ray in “Extensive Interview with Dr. Darrel Ray on Secular Therapy and Recovering From Religion“ stated:

So, #2 behind the fear of hell are issues around their sexuality and things like, “I know it’s not wrong to masturbate, but I still feel guilty,” “I am a sex addict because I look at porn.” There’s tons of evidence that the most religious people self-identify the most as “sex addicts.” Not to mind, there is no such thing as sex addiction. There’s no way to define it. I have argued with atheists that have been atheists for 20 years who say that they are sex addicts. Help me understand, how did you get that diagnosis? “My mother-in-law diagnosed me” [Laughing]. “I look at porn once or twice a week.” I do not care if you look at porn once or twice an hour. You are still not a sex addict. So, get over that. You may have other issues. You may have some compulsions. You may have some fear of driving the issue. But it almost always comes down to early childhood religious training, as we spoke about earlier. So, people are simply responding to the programming. Even though, they are atheist, secular, agnostic. I do not care what you call yourself. You are still dealing with the programming. Sometimes, you can go an entire lifetime with a guilt, a shame, a fear, rooted in religion.

…It’s like this on issue and after issue. Fundamentalist Christian universities and theological beliefs in areas infect towns, attract similarly minded individuals from around the fundamentalist Christian diaspora, and reduce the amount of proper science in professional lives and the critical thinking in the public…

…Fort Langley culture follows from the culture of Trinity Western University on a number of qualitative-observational metrics… One TWU is one LGBTI community group around campus without formal affiliation (“*We are run completely independently from and bare no formal affiliation with Trinity Western University”), though small, for individual students who may be struggling on or around campus. While others outside the formal TWU community, and in the extended fundamentalist Christian community, and taking the idea of “think differently” differently – as in “think the same, as always,” Richard Peachey is as fast as proclaiming the literal Word of God Almighty with homosexuality as an affront to God and fundamentally a sin in His sight. In spite of this, at one time or another, based on Canadian reportage and some names in the current listings, Matthew Wigmore, Bryan Sandberg, and David Evans-Carlson (co-founders of One TWU), and Nate/Nathan Froelich, Kelsey Tiffin, Robynne Healey, and others in the current crop – Kieran Wear, Elisabeth Browning, Queenie Rabanes, and Micah Bron – stand firm against some former mandatory community covenant standards either as supports for themselves or as allies who have been negatively impacted by the Community Covenant. A minority gender and sexual identity is completely healthy and normal. If the theology rejects this, then the theology is at odds with reality, not the students’ sense of themselves, who they love, and their identities, or the science. I agree with them and stand far more with them…

…Congratulations for making it this far, but freethought extends into other areas too, of the local culture, as with hundreds of towns in this country, whether colonics/colonhydrotherapy, aromatherapy, chiropractory, acupuncture, reflexology, naturopathy/naturopathic medicine and traditional Chinese medicine, or simply a culture of praying for help with an ailment (which is one overlap with the religious fundamentalist community and the reduced capacity for critical thought). Colonics/colonhydrotherapy is marginally practiced within some of the town in Fort Langley Colonics. Dr. Stephen Barrett, M.D. in “Gastrointestinal Quackery: Colonics, Laxatives, and More“ stated rather starkly…

In 2009, Dr. Edzard Ernst tabulated the therapeutic claims he found on the Web sites of six “professional organizations of colonic irrigations.” The themes he found included detoxification, normailzation [sic] of intestinal function, treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, and weight loss. He also found claims elated to asthma, menstrual irregularities, circulatory disorders, skin problems, and improvements in energy levels. Searching Medline and Embase, he was unable to find a single controlled clinical trial that substantiated [sic] any of these claims.

On aromatherapy, this one is a softball. One can find this in the True Aromatherapy Products and Spa (TAP) store. As William H. London, in an article entitled “Essential Considerations About Aromatherapy“ in Skeptical Inquirer, describes the foundations of aromatherapy as follows, “The practice of administering plant-derived essential oils on the skin, via inhalation of vapors, or internally via ingestion for supposed healing power is commonly called aromatherapy. The oils for aromatherapy are described as ‘essential’ to refer to the volatile, aromatic components that some people describe as the ‘essence’ of the plant source, which represents the plant’s ‘life force,’ ‘spirit,’ or soul. Aromatherapy is thus rooted in vitalism…”  RationalWiki states:

Like most woo, aromatherapy starts with observable, real effects of smells on humans, and extrapolates and exaggerates into a whole range of treatments from the effective, to the banal, to the outright ridiculous…

…To chiropractory, it is widely regarded as a pseudoscience with either no efficacy or negative effects on the patient or the client. Fort Family Chiropractic [Ed. Lana Patterson and Shaun Patterson] and Evergreen Chiropractic [Ed. Mike Titchener.] are the two main businesses devoted to some practice of chiropractory. As Science-Based Medicine in its “Chiropractic” entry states:

Chiropractic was invented by D. D. Palmer, Sep 18, 1895 when he adjusted the spine of a deaf man and allegedly restored his hearing (a claim that is highly implausible based on what we know of anatomy). Based on this one case, Palmer decided that all disease was due to subluxation: 95% to subluxations of the spine and 5% to subluxations of other bones.

The rationale for chiropractic hinges on three postulates:

  1. Bones are out of place
  2. Bony displacements cause nerve interference
  3. Manipulating the spine replaces the bones, removing the nerve interference and allowing Innate (a vitalistic life force) to restore health.

There is no credible evidence to support any of these claims…

…Acupuncture is another issue. Hardman Acupuncturist & TCM [Ed. “William O. Hardman”], Integrated Health Clinic, devote themselves, in part, to this. Dr. Steven Novella of Science-Based Medicine in “Acupuncture Doesn’t Work“ stated:

…according to the usual standards of medicine, acupuncture does not work.

Let me explain what I mean by that. Clinical research can never prove that an intervention has an effect size of zero. Rather, clinical research assumes the null hypothesis, that the treatment does not work, and the burden of proof lies with demonstrating adequate evidence to reject the null hypothesis. So, when being technical, researchers will conclude that a negative study “fails to reject the null hypothesis.”…

…In layman’s terms, acupuncture does not work – for anything.

This has profound clinical, ethical, scientific, and practical implications. In my opinion humanity should not waste another penny, another moment, another patient – any further resources on this dead end. We should consider this a lesson learned, cut our losses, and move on.

…Another issue practice is reflexology, as seen in Health Roots & Reflexology [Ed. Lisa Kako, Alison Legge.]. Quackwatch concludes, “Reflexology is based on an absurd theory and has not been demonstrated to influence the course of any illness… Claims that reflexology is effective for diagnosing or treating disease should be ignored…” …As Dr. Harriet Hall in “Modern Reflexology: Still As Bogus As Pre-Modern Reflexology“ said, “Reflexology is an alternative medicine system that claims to treat internal organs by pressing on designated spots on the feet and hands; there is no anatomical connection between those organs and those spots. Systematic reviews in 2009 and 2011 found no convincing evidence that reflexology is an effective treatment for any medical condition. Quackwatch and the NCAHF agree that reflexology is a form of massage that may help patients relax and feel better temporarily, but that has no other health benefits…”

…A larger concoction of bad science and medicine comes from the Integrated Health Clinic [Ed. Kaiden Maxwell, Gurdev Parmar, Karen Parmar, Michelle Willis, Karen McGee, Erik Boudreau, Adam Davison, Nicole Duffee, Erin Rurak, Alyssa Fruson, Alanna Rinas, Sarah Soles, Wayne Phimister, and Alfred Man. Many, not all, in part or in whole, trained in and practicing pseudosciences – pseudomedicine – found in acupuncture, naturopathy, traditional Chinese medicine, homeopathy, craniosacral therapy, the Bowen technique, and so on. One can integrate several pseudosciences to formulate a clinic for ‘medicine.’ However, all this amounts to an elaborate integration of pseudosciences, an integrated pseudoscience clinic, whether in a quaint fundamentalist religious community village or not.] devoted, largely, to naturopathy/naturopathic medicine (based on a large number of naturopaths on staff) and traditional Chinese medicine with manifestations in IV/chelation therapy, neural therapy, detox, hormone balancing & thermography, anthroposophical medicine, LRHT/hyperthermia, Bowen technique, among others. We’ll run through those first two, as the references to them are available in the resources, in the manner before. Scott Gavura in “Naturopathy vs. Science: Facts edition” stated:

Naturopaths claim that they practice based on scientific principles. Yet examinations of naturopathic literature, practices and statements suggest a more ambivalent attitude. NDhealthfacts.org neatly illustrates the problem with naturopathy itself: Open antagonism to science-based medicine, and the risk of harm from “integrating” these practices into the practice of medicine… Because good medicine isn’t based on invented facts and pre-scientific beliefs – it must be grounded in science. And naturopathy, despite the claims, is anything but scientific.

The Skeptic’s Dictionary stated:

Naturopathy is often, if not always, practiced in combination with other forms of “alternative” health practices... Claims that these and practices such as colonic irrigation or coffee enemas “detoxify” the body or enhance the immune system or promote “homeostasis,” “harmony,” “balance,” “vitality,” and the like are exaggerated and not backed up by sound research.

As Dr. David Gorski, as quoted in RationalWiki, stated, “Naturopathy is a cornucopia of almost every quackery you can think of. Be it homeopathytraditional Chinese medicineAyurvedic medicineapplied kinesiologyanthroposophical medicinereflexologycraniosacral therapy, Bowen Technique, and pretty much any other form of unscientific or prescientific medicine that you can imagine, it’s hard to think of a single form of pseudoscientific medicine and quackery that naturopathy doesn’t embrace or at least tolerate.” The Massachusetts Medical Society stated similar terms, “Naturopathic medical school is not a medical school in anything but the appropriation of the word medical. Naturopathy is not a branch of medicine…”

…Now, onto Traditional Chinese Medicine or TCM, or Chinese Medicine or CM, also coming out of the Integrated Health Clinic, RationalWiki notes some of the dangerous, if not disgusting to a North American and Western European palette, ingredients:

CM ingredients can range from common plants, such as dandelion, persimmon, and mint, to weird or even dangerous stuff. Some of the more revolting (from a Western standpoint) things found in TCM include genitals of various animals (including dogs, tigers, seals, oxen, goats, and deer), bear bile (commonly obtained by means of slow, inhumane extraction methods), and (genuine) snake oil… Urinefecesplacenta and other human-derived medicines were traditionally used but some may no longer be in use.

Some of the dangerous ingredients include lead, calomel (mercurous chloride), cinnabar (red mercuric sulfide), asbestos (including asbestiform actinolite, sometimes erroneously called aconite) realgar (arsenic), and birthwort (Aristolochia spp.). Bloodletting is also practiced. Bizarrely, lead oxide, cinnabar, and calomel are said to be good for detoxification. Lead oxide is also supposed to help with ringworms, skin rashes, rosacea, eczema, sores, ulcers, and intestinal parasites, cinnabar allegedly helps you live longer, and asbestos…

Dr. Arthur Grollman, a professor of pharmacological science and medicine at Stony Brook University in New York, in an article entitled “Chinese medicine gains WHO acceptance but it has many critics” is quoted, on the case of TCM or CM acceptance at the World Health Organization, saying, “It will confer legitimacy on unproven therapies and add considerably to the costs of health care… Widespread consumption of Chinese herbals of unknown efficacy and potential toxicity will jeopardize the health of unsuspecting consumers worldwide.”  On case after case, we can find individual practices or collections of practices of dubious effect if not ill-effect in the town. Indeed, this follows from one of the earliest points about the infusion of supernatural thinking or pseudoscientific integration of praxis into the community, whether fear of liberal theology, encouragement of pseudobiology, prejudice and bigotry against the LGBTI members of community, pseudo-psychological diagnoses passed off as real psychological and behavioural issues while simply grounded in theological bias and false assertions as psychological constructs, or in the whole host of bad medical and science practices seen in “colonics/colonhydrotherapy, aromatherapy, chiropractory, acupuncture, reflexology, naturopathy/naturopathic medicine and traditional Chinese medicine.”

[2] The current Council of the Township of Langley consists of Cllr. Petrina Arnason, Cllr. David Davis, Cllr. Steve Ferguson, Cllr. Margaret Kunst, Cllr. Bob Long, Cllr. Kim Richter, Cllr. Blair Whitmarsh, Cllr. Eric Woodward and Mayor Jack Froese.

[3] Canadians’ and Others’ Convictions to Divine Interventionism in the Matters of the Origins and Evolution states:

Canadian Mennonite University invited Professor Dennis Venema from Trinity Western University as the Scientist in Residence. Venema, at the time, stated, “I’m thrilled to be invited to be the Scientist in Residence at CMU for 2019. I think it’s a wonderful opportunity for students, and I am honoured to join a prestigious group of prior participants… I hope that these conversations can help students along the path to embracing both God’s word and God’s world as a source of reliable revelation to us.” Venema defends the view of evolutionary theory within a framework of “evolutionary creationism,” which appears more a terminologically diplomatic stance than evolution via natural selection or the code language within some religious commentary as things like or almost identical to “atheistic evolution” or “atheistic evolutionism.” He provides education on the range of religious views on offer with a more enticing one directed at evolution via natural selection. The Canadian Scientific and Christian Affiliation provides a space for countering some of the young earth geologist and young earth creationist viewpoints, as with the advertisement of the Dr. Jonathan Baker’s lecture, or in pamphlets produced on geological (and other) sciences. 

He works in a tough area within a community not necessarily accepting of the evolution via natural selection view of human beings with a preference for special creation, creationism, or intelligent design. Much of the problems post-genetics as a proper discipline of scientific study and the discovery of evolution via natural selection comes from the evangelical Christian communities’ sub-cultures who insist on a literal and, hence, fundamentalist interpretation or reading of their scriptures or purported holy texts. Another small item of note. Other universities have writers in residence. A Mennonite university hosts a scientist in residence. Science becomes the abnorm rather than the norm. The King’s University contains one reference in the search results within a past conference. However, this may be a reference to “creation” rather than “creationism” as creation and more “creation” speaking to the theological interpretations of genesis without an attempt at an explicit scientific justification of mythology.

By far, the largest number of references to “creationism” came from the largest Christian, and evangelical Christian, university in the country located in Langley, British Columbia, Canada called Trinity Western University, which, given its proximity and student body population compared to the local town, makes Fort Langley – in one framing – and Trinity Western University the heart of fundamentalist evangelical Christianity in Canada. Trinity Western University teaches a “SCS 503 – Creationism & Christainity [sic] (Korean)” course and a “SCS 691 – Creationism Field Trip” course. They hosted a lecture on Stephen Hawking, science, and creation, as stated:

In light of Steven Hawking’s theories, is there enough reason for theists to believe in the existence of God and the creation of the world?

This lecture will respond to Hawking’s views and reflect on the relationship between science, philosophy and theology.

Speaker: Dr. Yonghua Ge, Director of Mandarin Theology Program at ACTS Seminaries (Ibid.)

They hosted another event on evolution and young earth creationism:

All are welcome to attend, Public Lecture, hosted by TWU’s ‘Science, Faith, and Human Flourishing: Conversations in Community” Initiative, supported by Fuller Seminary, Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, and the Canadian Scientific & Christian Affiliation, “Evolutionary and Young-Earth Creationism: Two Separate Lectures” (Darrel Falk, “Evolution, Creation and the God Who is Love” and Todd Wood, “The Quest: Understanding God’s Creation in Science and Scripture”)

Dirk Büchner, Professor of Biblical Studies at Trinity Western University, states an expertise in “Hebrew Bible / Old Testament, Hebrew, Aramaic and Syriac (grammar and syntax), Hellenistic Greek (grammar and lexicography), The Septuagint. Of more popular interest: The Bible and Social Justice, and Creationism, Scientism and the Bible: why there should be no conflict between mainstream science and Christian faith.” Professor Büchner holds an expert status in “creationism.” A non-conflict between mainstream science and the Christian faith would mean the significantly reduced status of the intervention of the divine in the ordinary life of Christians. He remains one locus of creationism in the Trinity Western University environment. Dr. Paul Yang’s biography states, “Paul Yang has over twenty years teaching experience, lecturing on physics and physics education, as well as Christian worldview and creationism. He has served as the director of the Vancouver Institute for Evangelical Wordlview [Sic] as well as the Director of the Christian.” Yang holds memberships or affiliations with the American Scientific Affiliation, Creation Research Society, and Korea Association of Creation Research. Dr. Alister McGrath and Dr. Michael Shermer had a dialogue moderated by a panel with Paul Chamberlain, Ph.D., Jaime Palmer-Hague, Ph.D., and Myron Penner, Ph.D. in 2017 at Trinity Western University.

All exist as probably Christian front organizations with the pretense as scientific and Christian organizations. One can see the patterns repeat themselves over and over again. Christian ‘science’ amounts to creationism, as noted before. Yang, with more than 20 years, exists as a pillar of creationist teaching, thinking, and researching within Canada and at Trinity Western University…

…Other cases of the more sophisticated and newer brands of Christianity with a similar theology, but more evolutionary biology – proper – incorporated into them exist in some of the heart of parts of evangelical Christianity in Canada. Professor Dennis Venema of Trinity Western University and his colleague Dave Navarro (Pastor, South Langley Church) continued a conversation on something entitled “evolutionary creation,” not “creation science” or “intelligent design” as Venema’s orientation at Trinity Western University continues to focus on the ways in which the evolutionary science can mix with a more nuanced and informed Christian theological worldview within the Evangelical tradition. One can doubt the fundamental claim, not in the Bible but, about the Bible as the holy God-breathed or divinely inspired book of the creator of the cosmos, but one can understand the doubt about the base claim about the veracity of the Bible leading to doubt about the contents and claims in the Bible – fundamental and derivative…

…A more small-time politician, Dr. Darrell Furgason, ran for public office in Chilliwack, British Columbia, Canada. Furgason lectured at Trinity Western University and earned a Ph.D. in Religious Studies. Dr. Furgason claims inclusivity for all while ignoring standard protocol in science, i.e., asserting religious views in written work, “Theistic evolution is a wrong view of Genesis, as well as history, and biology. Adam & Eve were real people….who lived in real history….around 6000 years ago.” ..

…The main fundamentalist Evangelical Christian postsecondary institution, university, found in Canadian society is Trinity Western University, where Professor Dennis Venema was the prominent individual referenced as the source of progress in the scientific discussions within intellectual and, in particular, formal academic discussions and teaching. Trinity Western University operates near Fort Langley, British Columbia, Canada in Langley. The main feature case for Story comes from a city near to Trinity Western University in Abbotsford, British Columbia. Story considers this the single most controversial case of creationism in the entire country…

…John Sutherland, of Trinity Western University, chaired the Abbotsford school board of the time, which, potentially, shows some relationship between the surrounding areas and the school curriculum and creationism axis – as you may recall Trinity Western University sits in Fort Langley, British Columbia, Canada, next to the city of Abbotsford, British Columbia as an evangelical Christian university. “The Minister agreed with Goodman and the Teachers’ Association and sent a letter requesting assurances from the board that they were adhering to the provincial curriculum…”, Story explained, “…The Minister’s requests were not directly acknowledged, but Sutherland was vocal about the issue in local media outlets. He accused the Minister of religious prejudice by attempting to remove creationism from the district.”

See “Canadians’ and Others’ Convictions to Divine Interventionism in the Matters of the Origins and Evolution”: https://newsintervention.com/creationism-evolution-jacobsen/.

[4] Science and Faith: A Conversation in Community, With Darrel Falk & Todd Wood“ states:

Darrel Falk is Senior Advisor for Dialog and former president of BioLogos. He is also Emeritus Professor of Biology at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego where he has been based since 1988. He is a graduate of Simon Fraser University, with a doctorate in genetics from the University of Alberta and postdoctoral fellowships at the University of British Columbia and the University of California, Irvine.   He began his career on the faculty at Syracuse University where he was tenured prior to his move into Christian higher education. Dr. Falk has given numerous talks about the relationship between science and faith at many universities, churches, and some seminaries. Besides his extensive writing at the BioLogos website, he is the author of Coming to Peace with Science  (InterVarsity Press) and the forthcoming book with Todd C. Wood, The Fool and the Heretic: How Two Scientists Moved beyond Labels to a Dialog about Creation and Evolution (Zondervan).

Todd C Wood is a Michigan native and graduate of Liberty University (Summa Cum Laude). He earned his Ph.D. in biochemistry from the University of Virginia in 1999, where he specialized in computational biology and protein evolution. He then did a post-doc on the rice genome at the Clemson University Genomics Institute. He spent 13 years at Bryan College and launched Core Academy of Science in 2013. Core Academy is a creation ministry that nurtures the next generation of Christ-like creation researchers to explore the hardest problems in creation. He is an expert in comparative genomics and computational systematics. He has authored or co-authored more than 40 technical papers, including papers in Science, Journal of Evolutionary Biology, and Answers Research Journal. He is the author or co-author of six books, including The Quest: Exploring Creation’s Hardest Problems and The Fool and the Heretic, written with Darrel Falk and Rob Barrett. In addition to teaching high school Bible and theology classes at Rhea County Academy, Todd also wrote the Introduction to Science textbook used in the ninth grade science class. His current research focuses on the created kinds of insects, floral mutations in trillium, and creationist interpretations of human fossils. He was featured in the 2017 documentary Is Genesis History? In his spare time, he likes to make pie and watch classic movies.

See “Science and Faith: A Conversation in Community, With Darrel Falk & Todd Wood.”

Photo by Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash

After Sindh islands, now Pakistan wants to sell Sindh’s Karoonjhar mountains to China

Islamabad has plans to sell Karoonjhar mountains located in the Sindh province to China, a move that has fueled public anger amongst the native Sindhi population. The Sindhi people have begun to see Pakistan as an agent of China that wants to slowly turn Sindh into a Chinese colony by selling off natural resources of Sindh province. Barely a month ago, Islamabad’s federal government had made efforts to sell coastal Sindh islands Bundal and Dingi.

The sale of Karoonjhar mountain range to China by Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led provincial government of Sindh is actually a deal made between the PPP and federal government of Pakistan. PPP gave the ‘sell letter’ to Frontier Works Organization (FWO) that allows the plunder of Karoonjhar mountains by China and in return PPP will get the corruption cases withdrawn against itself. This is not the first time that PPP have sold the resources of Sindh to save their skin. But the people of Sindh will never allow the federal government of Pakistan or the Pakistan Army to loot the resources of Sindh and sell them to China. Karoonjhar mountains, the Bhundar (Bundal) and Dingi coastal islands are Sindh’s natural resources that belong to our future generations as well.

The Frontier Works Organization (FWO) is a Pakistan military engineering company that works directly under the Pakistan Army. The FWO had started mining and quarrying work on the Karoonjhar mountains without the prior approval of Sindh’s provincial government a few months ago, but due to resistance from Sindhi people they stopped the work on site and now they have fraudulently got this ‘sell letter’.

Karoonjhar Mountains in Sindh.

Karoonjhar mountains have a historical significance, they are our collective heritage that are located in Tharparkar, Sindh. The Karoonjhar mountains rise to a height of 305 metres on the northern edge of the Rann of Kutch and run approximately 19 km in length and are famous due to their being the seat of oldest Jain temple. The Karoonjhar mountains are full of granite and gold.

A mega granite city and factories project has been announced by the government authorities in this region which is spread across one lakh fifty thousand acres out of the total two lakh acre area. People of Sindh are furious with such day light loot and several protests are being held across Sindh against the illegal ordinance of selling Sindh’s islands to China. A mega city project was announced last month that is connected with the CPEC and this illegal occupation of Karoonjhar mountains is a threat for the people of Sindh.

Sindh’s provincial government had set up a fact finding committee in November 2019 to assess the impact of mining in Karoonjhar mountains. (Photo: News Intervention)

Project’s Adverse Impact
* Indiscriminate mining contributes to deforestation, loss of biodiversity and misuse of a large number of water resources that can lead to adverse climate change.
* Karoonjhar is not just a range of Granite deposits, it’s a symbol of Tharparkar’s resilience and history .
* Destruction of Karooonjhar mountains will erase Sindh’s history.
* It will distortion our heritage and culture.
* Threat to geography and demography of Sindh.
* It will lead to shortage of water because in the monsoon season, rainwater flows down the Karoonjhar mountains into more than 20 streams.
* Local people’s daily life will be affected directly because this is a tourist place and a source of earning for them.

This is not first time that Karoonjhar mountains are under attack by greedy people and the enemies of nature. The first contract of cutting the stones was issued during Zia-ul Haq’s regime, and then in 2008 soon after Pervez Musharraf’s departure from power the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government issued a 20-year lease to a private company.

The Sindh Concession (Granite) Order 2007, mentions the “Restriction on Grant of Exploration Licenses or Mining lease: No Exploration Licences or Mining lease whatsoever shall be granted in the Karoonjhar range mountains of Nagarparkar”.

FWO and Chinese companies have begun the loot of natural resources from Karoonjhar mountains. (Photo: News Intervention)

In 2011, a notification was issued by the government of Sindh, on behalf of the Director General Mines and Mineral Development, which states: “With the approval of the Competent Authority, the Mining lease over an area of 659 acres, out of the already granted area of granite, comprising 2,636 acres, is hereby granted to M/s Kohinoor Marble Industries (Pvt) Ltd.,” until 2030.

Then in 2012, Justice Jawwad S. Khawaja gave directions to the DC Tharparkar that the cutting of stone must be restrained. But this time the situation is not same as before people of Sindh are now more worried that before because of China and Chinese companies presence in Tharparkar and the influence of Punjab in selling Sindh lands, islands and mountains to China has increased rapidly. After the sale of the black gold –the Thar Coal, to China a project of CPEC has damaged the environment of the region and left the local people devastated. Now this new project will bring more suffering for the people of Sindh and it is clear aggression and exploitation.

Save Karoonjhar Save Sindh

Karoonjhar mountains are located in the Nangarparkar Tharparkar Sindh, a rock formation which is approximately 5 billion years old with immense geographical importance and archeological significance for this region. Because of rich history and cultural significance the natives consider these mountains a sacred place with 108 ancient historical remains like the Jain Gori temple, Bhodesar Talao, Sardaro, Anchlechure, Gao Mukhi, Punraj Gadr, Chandan Gadr and Marvi Jo khooh (well) among several others located in these mountains. Local people, regardless of their religious beliefs, consider these mountains to be a very sacred place.

Hindus consider these mountains as their second holiest place after the River Ganges and they perform their funeral rites “Antyeshti” at the Karoonjhar springs.

These mountains are not only precious for Sindhi people but for animals and birds too. The place provides a safe refuge for peacocks, endangered deer, jackals, wolves and hyenas, while boasting of a wide variety of flora and fauna. In Sindhi folklore, there are songs and tales of the famous Shaheed Rooplo Kolhi a prominent personality who fought the British Army and was hanged in Karoonjhar.

Rocks earmarked for transport. (Photo: News Intervention)

Karoonjhar range is spread on a total area of two lakh acre stretching till the Indian border, with deposits of 20 billion tons of special types of granite and Chinese clay. Natives say Karoonjhar yields about 100 kilogram of gold everyday.

However, the greedy Punjab province of Pakistan and its Punjabi army generals have always had an eye on the lands, island and resources of occupied provinces since the creation of Pakistan. The dominant province of Punjab has always exploited the assets and natural resources of historical oppressed nations.

This loot never stopped, rather it increased continuously because now the Punjab province has backing of expansionist China. Frontier works organizations (FWO) is a military engineering organization, and one of the major science and technology commands of the Pakistan Army that was commissioned and established in 1966. The FWO includes active duty officers from the Pakistan Army and civilian scientists and engineers. Since its establishment it has been credited with the construction of bridges, roads, tunnels, airfields and dams in Pakistan and it controls 65% of construction projects across Pakistan.

Illegal mining activities at the Karoonjhar mountains. (Photo: News Intervention)

In 2019, the FWO illegally entered this beautiful Valley with 12 multinational companies, mostly Chinese, and started the extraction of granite from Karoonjhar mountains and this region became a “no go” area for local people. But when natives watched loaded trucks carrying out granite they started protests in local cities and a social media campaign was launched as “Save Karoonjhar” in November 2019.

Local people reached the police station in the city for registration of FIR over illegal granite extraction but was refused by authorities due to the involvement of FWO and the federal government. The locals then reached out to elected politicians of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Sindh. PPP refused to comment or talk about these illegal activities. Finally matter reached the Sindh High Court and a case was filed by local resident of Nangarparkar. A division bench of Sindh High Court, Hyderabad circuit, stayed the excavation of stones in Karoonjhar mountains of Nangarparkar, while issuing notice to federal secretary of natural resources, secretary of forest and wildlife, Frontier Works Organization (FWO), secretary of mines and minerals and different marble companies. The bench also issued notice to the additional advocate general and deputy attorney general with directives to file comments till the next hearing date. As per court order respondents were jointly restrained from cutting mountains or moving any minerals from the site.

But the weak provincial government of Sindh under the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), a party of corrupt feudal lords and thugs who have always sold Sindh to Punjab for their personal interests came out once again. In order to save their skin from the several corruption cases against them, the PPP provincial government released a notification with an approval to carry out operations in the Karoonjhar mountains. They have thus put a stamp to destroy this sacred place and sold the Karoonjhar to Frontier Works Organization (FWO) and Chinese companies for their 10% commission under pressure of the federal government and Pakistan Army.

ISI fails to abduct Kashmiri from Rawalakot due to strong protests in POK

ISI’s attempt to forcibly abduct a local Kashmiri from Rawalakot in POK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) on October 28, was foiled due to a spirited response from the locals who refused to take down the high-handed behaviour of ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) agents. The brave people of Rawalakot encircled the ISI agent’s car and rescued their Kashmiri brethren who was being abducted on fictitious charges.

This is not the first case of abduction and certainly not the last where Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI tried to abduct a Kashmiri from POK. If the ISI had managed to abduct him then he would have been “disappeared” quietly. The mutilated bodies of such “disappeared” persons are then conveniently “dumped”. The Kashmiri who was being taken away on October 28 from Rawalakot would have met the same fate had not the locals intervened and saved him from the clutches of ISI.

“We are trying to draw attention of the world towards the violence inflicted upon us Kashmiris by the occupying state of Pakistan. It’s sad that the international community is silent to this oppression and continuous massacre of Kashmiris by the Pakistani security forces,” a local Kashmiri told News Intervention requesting anonymity.

Local Kashmiris smash the windscreen of ISI agent’s car in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK). (Photo: News Intervention)

The Pakistani state does not take into account human principles and rules while indulging in oppression of common people. It indulged in similar massacre of Bengalis in the erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and it is committing worse crimes in occupied territories of Sindh, Balochistan and Pashtunistan.

Kashmiris from the POK ask why army brigades and military barracks are present across the ten districts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (ironically Pakistan calls it ‘Azad Kashmir’). “There is no rationale for this heavy military presence in these so-called ten districts of “Azad Kashmir”. Where is our Azadi (freedom)? These Pakistani army brigades and military barracks occupy each city’s entry point from all four sides. What is the main reason for such a heavy siege on every city? Why have we been taken under this siege? This siege is only to suppress the Kashmiris’ voice of freedom, demand for liberation and people’s rights,” the Kashmiri said, her voice shrill with anger. She further added that whenever people in POK start getting organized the occupying Pakistani forces leave no stone unturned to suppress it.

Massive crowds encircled the ISI vehicle in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK). (Photo: News Intervention)

Pakistan’s ploy has been to prevent issues in POK and Gilgit-Baltistan from being discussed at international forums. Pakistan uses all kinds of stratagems to stop news from POK and Gilgit-Baltistan from being published by mainstream media organizations. Both Rawalpindi and Islamabad know quite well that the only way they can keep POK under its belt is through brute force and that is why there’s extrajudicial killing and enforced disappearances on a massive scale across POK and Gilgit-Baltistan.

“The time has come for us to demand an end to this heavy siege of all the cities by the Pakistan Army and an immediate withdrawal of military barracks and brigades. We are under siege in the name of security. There is no peace in POK, rather a peaceful siege. We are made to believe that slavery is freedom but it’s time to call slavery a slavery and it’s time to demand freedom from occupying forces of Pakistan,” a Kashmiri student from Rawalakot told News Intervention, requesting anonymity.

Will US retain its superpower status in the post-COVID world?

Current Geo-Political Landscape
We live in troubled COVID times which has accelerated the change in the international geo-political landscape. USA, the lone superpower, for over two decades has realized that global leadership or hegemony is not a right, and even if it was, USA by its actions is shedding that mantle. Number of papers/articles/media discussions have emerged regarding the future status of USA. The world and ironically the Americans are analysing, watching and reading the geo-political and geo-strategic signals and relative comprehensive national power (CNP) indices of nations specially of USA and China intently, to catch the emerging trends accurately.

Currently the number of doomsayers predicting a permanent gradual/ sudden degrading of US status and power projection capabilities outnumber the hopefuls who predict that like numerous times before, USA will bounce back and retain its numero uno status. A multi-polar world in a multi-domain security environment is crystallising post COVID. In its National Security Strategy paper (2017), US has acknowledged the emergence of China as a peer competitor along with Russia as her main adversary. Nations including USA are busy maneuvering strategically through a world of ‘persistent engagement’, conducting 24X7 multi-domain cooperation, competition, confrontation and even conflict if national interests dictate so.

The Multi-Domain Environment
The multi-domain environment includes PDIME (political, diplomatic, informational, military and economic) and other kinetic and non-kinetic domains. Confrontation/conflicts have enlarged in time, geography, space and domains from the traditional land, air and sea to include cyber, space, information and media (information influence operations (IIO), PSYOPS (psychological operations), niche technology (artificial intelligence, nano, hyper velocity systems, robotics), network centricity, and domination of electromagnetic spectrum. These game changers have drastically changed the very concept of deterrence and compellence as even smaller, poorer nations/groups/corporates can use combination of domains specially the non-cognitive/non-kinetic.

Illiberal/autocratic/dictatorial nations and groups like Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Venezuela, Syria, al-Qaida, IS (Islamic State), Taliban are thumbing their noses at USA, international institutions and opinion, and discovering the ability to act below red lines of conventional conflict to achieve their objectives. China and Russia have mastered this art. Today, the United States finds itself not apart or atop but amid the world both shaping and being shaped by global events and forces. This article provides an overview post/ongoing COVID of US power and influence; a declining power whose economy, power projection capabilities and influence are waning; or born-again resurgent USA which will manage to tide over challenges specially China and remain dominant in global affairs; or become ‘first amongst equals’ in a multi-polar world.

The Trump Phenomenon
Most of Washington’s allies (with a few notable exceptions, like Israel and Saudi Arabia) are of the “Anybody but Trump” inclination[i]. Restoring a constructive US role in the world will require much more than replacing Trump. In a lighter vein after witnessing the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden, hits on how to migrate to Canada hit an all-time high in the USA, while the rest of the world watched aghast. President Trump’s ‘America First’, zero-sum transactional policies, pulling out of numerous multi-lateral agreements/treaties (like climate change, trans-Pacific partnership, Iran nuclear deal, WHO), resorting to bilateral deals, annoying long-standing allies, indiscriminate use of sanctions and levying of taxes on goods, is losing USA friends, credibility and its hard-won global acceptance at an alarming pace. The irony of most of the actions not having met their proposed goals/compliance, is not lost on the domestic and international audience.

Indicators of a Declining Power

Historical Precept. Countries decay only in retrospect[ii]. Historically, powerful states suffer from the “comfort zone cult,”, the tendency to believe that ‘reason will prevail’ and that ‘everything will be all right’ being seductive. When a crisis erupts, it is likely to be unexpected, confusing, and catastrophic, with the causes so seemingly trivial, the consequences so easily reparable if political leaders would only do the right thing that no one can quite believe it has come to this. USA, a country which enjoys untrammeled power for decades, has little incentive to look inward at what was wrong at the core. Therefore the US has no wish to change its ways either of its own free will or, still less, by making concessions to anyone or anything. A political system at some point triggers one of two reactions; a devastating backlash from those most threatened, or a realisation by the change makers that their goals can no longer be realized within the institutions and ideologies of the present order?

Geo-Political Indicators
The US share of global GDP has been declining steadily from 51 percent in 1951, 25 percent in 1999 to around 15 percent now. China today has surpassed annual US aid disbursals. Bewildering surrender of the USA to COVID-19 without fighting, both internally and externally is a significant indicator of its current stomach for moral, material and crisis global leadership; leading to uncoordinated international response to the pandemic; resulting in economic downturns, resurgence of nationalist politics, hardening of state borders; accelerating the emergence of a less cooperative and more fragile international system.

Chinese economy is becoming “a very serious rival” and globalisation has dispersed economic power widely around the globe. China’s multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is an economic and power projection/influencing pathway is proof of China’s growing clout. US no longer sets the agenda or calls the tune in the Middle East (Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia do).

US President Donald Trump.
US President Donald Trump.

Three developments led to a unipolar world; first, after the defeat of communism (China can no longer be defined as one), the US faced no major global ideological rival; second, it also brought about collapse of accompanying infrastructure of institutions and partnerships, and smaller/developing/ illiberal states lacked significant alternatives, when it came to securing military, economic, and political support; and third, democratic liberal order was the flavor of the season and got increasingly bolstered[iii]. Changed geo-political environment signals the decline of US global leadership, and regional powers are seeking domination of their strategic space, and many feel the decline is not cyclical but permanent.

The Multi-Polar Emergence led by Russia and China[iv]   
Nations have options to seek alternative patrons, ideologies and rival narratives which often appeal to weaker states/autocratic leaders/illiberal regimes, rather than remain dependent on US and Western largesse and support. New regional organizations (BRICS, for instance) and illiberal transnational networks contest US influence. Decisive shifts in the global economy, the rise of Indo-Pacific, Asia particularly China, have transformed the geo-economic landscape.

China and Russia now directly contest the international order from within that orders institutions and forums; at the same time, they are building an alternative order through new institutions and venues in which they wield greater influence (lesser focus on human rights and civil liberties). At the United Nations as permanent members of UNSC, they have coordinated their opposition to criticise Western interventions and calls for regime change; they have vetoed Western-sponsored proposals on Syria, Venezuela and Yemen. In the last 15 years both voted the same way, 86 percent of the time, unlike 21 percent with US.

Creation of Security Organisations sans USA and her Allies
China and Russia have pushed a plethora of new regional security organizations[v], including the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CISA), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and economic institutions like Asian Infrastructure Investment and New Development Bank (AIIB). These emerging structures of global governance compete with older, more liberal structures. Apart from BRI, China and Russia are entering areas traditionally dominated by the United States and its allies; China convenes the 17+1 group of central and eastern Europe states, and the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum.

Against a common adversary USA, Russia and China have successfully managed their alliance of convenience, defying predictions that they would be unable to tolerate each other’s international projects. In CAR (Central Asia Republics), which Russia considers its backyard, Kremlin’s rhetoric has shifted from talking about a clearly demarcated Russian “sphere of influence”, to embracing a “Greater Eurasia” in which Chinese-led investment and integration dovetails with Russian efforts to shut out Western influence.

China is not USSR; Integrated into Global System
China is a peer competitor that is more formidable economically, sophisticated diplomatically, and more flexible ideologically than the Soviet Union ever was. And unlike the Soviet Union, China is deeply integrated into the world economy, especially the US. Strategy of containment worked on an economically weak USSR. Beijing has been better at converting its country’s economic heft into strategic influence. China has embraced globalization to become the top trading partner for more than two-thirds of the world’s nations. Ironically, China is central to the prosperity of American allies and partners!

Imran Khan (left), Prime Minister Pakistan with Xi Jinping (right), President China. (Photo: AP)

The Optimists Version: Comeback Nation[vi]

Stating the obvious first, the US has by far the most powerful, technologically advanced military in the world with the most effective power projection capabilities. The US has always faced the cyclical churn of the global economy resolutely and come back stronger. The global currency is the US Dollar. Close to 90 percent of global financial transactions conducted through banks use the dollar, even if the deal does not involve an American party. By 2019, the United States accounted for 56 percent of global stock market capitalization, up from 42 percent in 2010. Even now US soft power coupled with its other facets of comprehensive national power, makes it the most powerful nation.

China’s Economy in Dire Straits
China’s debt now amounts to nearly 270 percent of GDP, zombies account for ten percent of corporate debt in China, making it highly vulnerable to a global financial crisis. The most important driver of any economy is the working-age population, which is shrinking, and historically, countries with a shrinking workforce have had virtually no chance of sustaining rapid economic growth for even one decade. Chinese economy has been fueled by a credit bubble of epic proportions and as per IMF is unprecedented and unsustainable. China’s growth story is based on exports, which is already badly hit due reasons of global slowdown and negative COVID reactions internationally, leading to further stagnation.

Whither US Hegemony

New World Order 
Having seen both sides of the coin, it would be fair to say that US has lost its superpower status, but still remains the most powerful global power for some time to come, depending on its geo-political-economic-strategic-security related policies and actions. For the US political and economic model to retain considerable appeal, she has to first get its own house in order. China will face its own obstacles in producing an alternative system; she has irked partners and clients with its pressure tactics and its opaque and often corrupt deals; she has many trading partners but few allies. The US influence has never been premised on power alone, but also depends on an ability to offer others a set of ideas and institutional frameworks for mutual gain[vii]. Even at the peak of the unipolar moment, Washington did not always get its way. As long as the core of the US system, remains robust, and the US, EU (and allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, India) can leverage their combined economic and military might to their advantage, US will remain the major player in international geo-politics, strategy and security affairs. Undoubtedly, she will have to get used to an increasingly contested and complex international order.

To sum up, US currently leads the strongest military and economic coalition in a world of multiple centers of power. Adapting to the new world order[viii] with smart statecraft will allow USA to navigate a world defined by competing interests and shifting alliances. 

US-China Strategic Play
There are no easy answers; the moderates preach coexistence on terms favorable to US interests and values involving elements of competition, cooperation and occasional confrontation, geared toward securing those favorable terms; the hawks naturally want a robust confrontationist approach because they believe that coexistence is not feasible in this ‘real-politik’ world. Given historical precedence of China/CCP story, her phenomenal economic growth coupled with a modern multi-domain military, and ever-increasing diplomatic, political and influencing heft, China is unlikely to accept coexistence and will challenge the US for domination initially of Asia and subsequently the world. A cold war or increasing animosity between USA and China is very worrying indeed.

Unlike with USSR/Russia where CBMs and Crisis Management Protocols (hotlines, codes of conduct, arms control agreement) exist(ed) to avert a crisis/disaster the United States and China lack similar instruments to manage crises at a time when new domains of potential conflict, such as space and cyber­space, have increased the risk of escalation. As China’s presence around the world grows, the US should avoid demonising China as it is doing now, and avoid the tendency to see nations only in terms of their relationship to China. The United States lacks both the will and the resources to consistently outbid China and other emerging powers for the allegiance of governments. Most nations will prefer to maintain a stable, win-win relationship with both. Many leaders, nations, world institutions are watching with apprehension and alarm the high probability of the dawn of a new ‘cold war turning HOT’ due to increasing militarization, brinkmanship in all domains between USA and China specially in the China Seas (South and East) and Taiwan, with Trump appearing determined to escalate and force a showdown, thanks to upcoming elections. Biden, the Democratic challenger cannot afford to be seen as weak either (bipartisan anger against China is the flavor of the season in USA), and even a change of leadership may at most see some moderation, but unlikely to see a major change of stance.

Chinese Perception of USA-India Relations and India’s Dilemma[ix]          Nothing is simple in geo-politics-strategy, and China naturally views India’s relations with US, more from the US perspective. Some view US-India relations as an attempt by US to contain China’s rise, and moderates see some of the contradictions in the relationship as inhibiting long-term strategic cooperation. Ironically, this is exactly India’s dilemma including President Trump’s vacillating foreign policy moves, and uncertainty post Trump (though there appears to be bi-partisan support for India given current environment). The festering border dispute between China and India is cited as a source of resentment that makes India an ideal partner for the US containment strategy. Most watchers see US-India ties through the security and containment prism and are powerful voices.

Recent Border Tensions along LAC
China is aware that India values her ‘strategic autonomy’, will act in national interest and make independent policies and decisions. China does not view US as neutral in the dispute and Trump’s offer to mediate has been rejected by China. China is also aware of India joining the US camp if driven too hard, apart from the dawning realisation that India is no longer a soft state and will stand resolutely and be prepared to fight when its sovereignty and national interests are threatened. Fact is, many in China till now, did not view India as a challenge to its security interests, but coupled with USA, they see India as a potential geo-strategic concern/threat. India must prepare to meet future geo-political challenges by continuously increasing its CNP (internal, external and soft power), and retain its strategic autonomy.

Conclusion
The US Unipolar Moment has passed, and it isn’t Coming Back. USA will continue to remain the ‘first amongst equals’ for quite some to come. She has realized that she needs to integrate better into the geo-political environment. The struggle between the US and China is ultimately over which country offers a better road to progress. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s China dream (including BRI) is to define an alternative path, a model of capitalism without liberalism and democracy. The jury is out on which ideology will win. India must chart its own path, exploit the geo-political environment and possesses all the characteristics of becoming ‘The Balancing Power’ of the World.


[i] ‘The US is not Entitled to Lead the World’ by James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2020 issue

[ii] ‘How a Great Power Falls Apart: Decline Is Invisible From the Inside’, By Charles King; Foreign Affairs, June 30, 2020

[iii] ‘Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist with China’ by Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2019)

[iv] Innumerable publications, internationally and regionally publish Articles/podcasts on US status as a superpower and its future. Perused Wikipedia, Encyclopedia Brittanica and numerous magazines (including digital) focused on geo-politics, strategy and security.

[v] ‘The decline of US global leadership: Power without authority’ by Allen Behm, in The Interpreter published daily by the Lowy Institute on 07 Oct 2019

[vi] Consulted from article ‘Is America still the world’s only superpower or is China a real rival? Experts aren’t so sure anymore’ by Christina Zhou, posted 23 Jun 20

[vii] ‘The Next Liberal Order: The Age of Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less’ By G John. Ikenberry, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug 2020

[viii] ‘Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China’ By Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, Sep/Oct 2019

[ix]China’s Ongoing Debates about India and the US’ by Dr Christopher K. Colley in Asia Dispatches Blog Post, 30 Jun 20

Globalism as Individualistic Tribalism: or, Infrastructures, Megastructures, and Superstructures as the Magisterium of Autonymity

Christian is a Philosopher that comes from Belgium. What identifies him the most and above all is simplicity, for everything is better with “vanilla flavour.” Perhaps, for this reason, his intellectual passion is criticism and irony, in the sense of trying to reveal what “hides behind the mask,” and give birth to the true. For him, ignorance and knowledge never “cross paths.” What he likes the most in his leisure time, is to go for a walk with his wife.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: So, I am having a job interview for a staff position for a Model United Nations conference, which has me thinking about some of the events after WWII as a reaction to WWII. The United Nations in its main “organs” or UN Organs are the General Assembly, the Security Council, the Economic and Social Council, the Trusteeship Council, the International Court of Justice, and the UN Secretariat. It’s a huge, bureaucratic juggernaut. That’s undeniable. Potentially, it’s the most bureaucratic organization in the history of the world alongside global phenomena such as the Vatican as a center of the humongous Roman Catholic Church and its laity and hierarchs. These are gigantic bodies of semi-functional operations. They can do good by achieving some of the stated ideals and aims, whether on purpose or by accident; also, they can do bad, whether in negligence or in incompetently carrying out particular tasks. The simulations environment is exciting as a delegate, as a staff member. Very, very few students within a particular cohort attend the major MUNs. Most of the students are in international relations, political science, or business. I am in none of those. Yet, the experiences, by accident, have been invaluable. Let’s start on the neutral, then bad, and finish off with a happy ending, the United Nations, the Catholic Church, various international civil society organizations, international nongovernmental organizations, and so on, what is some stuff operated on by them, conducted by them, maintained by them, amounting to a net neutral outcome at once or over periodicities?

Dr. Christian Sorensen: I think that both, the United Nations and the Vatican, or the non-governmental organizations, to name the main ones, are what I will denominate infrastructures determining a superstructure, that is to say, respectively, they are material bases, constituted by organizational skeletons, which conform various categories of resources, communicational flows and outputs in order to configure ideational systems of beliefs and values, ​​that are in turn, subject to history. In other words, I think that there have been factual phenomena, and therefore material historical circumstances, that have led as a way of responding to the needs that have been arising from unedited global issues, to the emergence of such mega structures, and simultaneously have developed ideational satellite systems, which although they give a sense of particular identity to their infrastructure, at the same time they turn around subsidariately to it, as a sort of base. Consequently in my opinion, the aforementioned is a dialectical process, that I will denominate historical materialism of the fittest, therefore, globalized destinies, are going to be to unfolded through the tension that derives from the permanent opposition of contrary elements, which although can change places among them, they cannot nevertheless modify their meaning or purpose.

Jacobsen: What are some negative outcomes at once or over periodicities?

Sorensen: I think that since it’s the material structure that determines the ideal superstructure, and not the opposite, it is possible to understand the reason why there is a sort of dissociation between the guiding principles as ideals, which would represent the ought to be, and the policies as outcomes or outputs, that are in turn, the material basal structure, in terms of underlying needs, that determine the previous two. In this way, it’s found for instance, that organizations such as the United Nations, which should be governed by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and the principles of the Geneva Convention, in practice proceed, almost exclusively according to contingential political quotas that lack of any major foundations, therefore the last, actually reflects more the affinity they have towards certain ethnic castes, to the detriment of others, which also represent minorities, than equal and equitable treatments, for all those who have been victims of threats and violations of their fundamental rights. In this manner, probably what happens with the Vatican, due to the fact of facing a downcast and agonizing Roman Catholic Church, is that they desperately utilize populist policies and rhetorical arguments, for intending through them and by the damping of manipulative communication strategies, to re-enchant the consciences of the secular world, that exhibits among other aspects, the facade of a renewed, empathetic and tolerant church, that evidently seems more in line with the times, but that’s far from reality, since they forget the other side of the coin by doing so, because simultaneously and deep down, they’re not aware, that behind the sensationalist language of seduction, they do nothing more than to hide the hierarchical conflicts within their walls, and for this reason, act as if they were denying the tradition of their own ecclesiastical magisterium, and in consequence, as if they were occulting the dirt under the rug. In any case, globalized organs such as those mentioned above, or with even more diverse purposes like the World Health Organization, regardless of their nature, in my opinion, practically apply in fullness, the rule through which, acts must be followed always by means that justify their ends, to the extent that generally, the unmoved motor, is represented through the underlying of primary needs, which although they may not be explicitly expressed, they are more intrinsically related to the multiple forms of ambitions and the pursuits of power, than with the achievement of the commonwealth, therefore they are synthesizable, in common entities, which lastly consist in the expression of the desire for oneself.

Jacobsen: What are the positives coming from them?

Sorensen: I think it is necessary to apply a criterion of differentiation, between the Vatican and all the remaining globalized organs, since if the aims of the last are supposedly supernatural, and its mission is purely spiritual, because they seek through proselytism, the salvation of every soul, then it is soapy and complex, to evaluate their positive aspects, due to the fact that both, their goals and mission, are in an ethereal and intangible plane, where in addition, it would be necessary to weigh subjectively the relative importance of these, since the spiritual has different connotation values for each one, and the approach to this as an extra empirical dimension, can be done from different vanishing points perspectives. The remaining phenomena, on the other hand, pursue goals and have missions, that although they can be nuanced, they nevertheless have mainly the same identity and nature, because they respectively promote the well-being of man, in relation to the satisfaction of needs which even if they transcend the merely material, and reach the spiritual realm, they are operationally defined, and duly empirically quantifiable as assumptions. Likewise, systematically speaking, the fact that such organizations, have a globalized and synergistic presence, allows them theoretically, to manage adequate communication mechanisms of feedback, and therefore of control as well, in order to introduce changes and variations, that are needed for achieving better states of equilibrium and homeostasis, depending on objectives, since in this manner they can actually improve substantially the general state of affairs, and reach a new global order, more focused on what I will denominate the desire for the other.

Jacobsen: As a Belgian-Israeli, what are the nonsensical conspiracy theories you’ve heard or read about the Belgians if on a global level?

Sorensen: Belgium, because it’s a country that geographically is located in the middle of Western Europe, which additionally represents a passageway between countries that doesn’t give to it almost any identity as a nation, and politically speaking, due that throughout history, and especially during the Second World War, has always sought to maintain a position of neutrality, is that Belgium will be determined by these references, which in turn, are currently going to be reinforced by means of been the capital of the European Union, and because of having in my opinion, the most multicultural capital in the world. As a whole, the aforementioned are backgrounds, which incline Belgians, not to formulate conspiracy theories in terms of value judgments. I would say, that they search rather the opposite, and because of this, they demolish conceptions of such nature. In other words, what they do, is to seek formulas of political consensus and agreements, since according to them, these would be fundamental to preserve European cohesion and cooperation, and for gaining a global peace. In this sense, and in very simple terms, I think that Belgium, has an intrinsic devotion for eclecticism, and therefore for the integration of antithetical aspects of different matters or realities, in comsequence it could be said, that the Belgians, not only discredit conspiracy theories, but also give them little credibility as potential threats, due to the reason that are a priori from their point of view, networks of lies, which may restrict in some manner their freedoms.

Jacobsen: What are the nonsensical conspiracy theories you’ve heard or read about the Israelis if on a global level?

Sorensen: In my opinion unfortunately and unlike others, when talking about Israeli conspiracy theories, the factual weight of these is relevant, since I think that Israel represents for the world not only the Jewish state, but also what I’m going to name as the ghetto country, that is to say, and globally speaking, it is believed and wished that Jews should be confined within that land, just as they used to be secluded in other times, within stigmatized neighborhoods of prejudice and hatred, before the shoa. The aforementioned, which is my way of thinking, perhaps in different terms, is also thought by other Israelies and Jews in the diaspora. In other words, I consider that the same history of the past, especially of the recent one, is currently being rewritten day over day, because of some, that believe that due to the forty years in which the people of Israel wandered in the desert, that then they may presume and be firmly convinced, maybe not with words but with deeds, that Jews have no right to live anywhere, since what it’s read between the lines, is that as other rejected minorities, they do not belong to the world, like the rest of humanity does. The last, is enchained with two more conspirational link, which symbolize not only for me, the novel global anti-Semitism. The first of these, is related to the mask of anti-Zionism, as an excuse to boycott Israel, nevertheless what they seek, is to basically repress any sign of Judaism within the diaspora, and the second one, refers to the retrograde and fantastic theory, of the protocols of the wise men of Zion according to which, Jews aspire to control and seizure not only the world’s natural resources, but also communications, and the elites of global economic and political powers. In this regard, outstands the paradoxical fact, that when the history is rewinded, it’s possible to verify among other things, that most of the events which gave origin to these fears, rest in Europe and in the Christian values ​​of the Roman Catholic Church, which both before and after Pope Pius XII, have ironically done, nothing more than to manifest feelings of pain and grief, with intentions to do penance, due to the constant suffering of the people of Israel, which has always reached their hearts.

Jacobsen: Does every country of the world bear responsibility for making the world a better place? If so, why so? If not, why not?

Sorensen: I think that to bear responsibility for this, there is always somebody who should do so, and no country will ever be someone, since in themselves they’re collectives, that as such would be and not be, and no existing thing is capable of both simultaneously. In this sense, I consider that responsibility as well as forgiveness, are always individual, and therefore it is necessary that both start from each one of us, and not from an abstract construct, which as such, only exists in an ideal world, but not in a world like ours, where perfection does not exist.

Jacobsen: What countries are making the world worse, the most?

Sorensen: I think that all those countries, which have subjected their fellow citizens, to the yoke of totalitarianism, in any of its facets, and therefore, have deprived them of rights, as fundamental, as the freedom of choice and conscience, and secondarily have alienated them, to the point of dehumanizing their beings.

Jacobsen: What nations are making the world better, the most?

Sorensen: I think that all those democratic countries focused on freedom and tolerance, that see in the state a controlling entity which guarantees the commonwealth, and grant in turn a subsidiary role to it, at the same time, that they’re more centered on the social needs, than on the individual self-referential ones, and ultimately search the humanization of society, by promoting civic values ​​of cooperation and solidarity.

Jacobsen: Hey you! Cya around.

Sorensen: Until next time!

Photo by Davi Mendes on Unsplash

October 22, 1947: Black Day in Kashmir’s history

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The time span from October 22 to October 26, 1947 is remembered as the blackest chapter in the history of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir that now stands re-designated as the Union Territory of Jammu Kashmir and the Union Territory of Ladakh. This period marks the illegal invasion of the state by Pakistan-sponsored mercenaries, who resorted to merciless and wanton destruction with the intention of annexing the territory into the newly formed Dominion of Pakistan. Succour came on October 27, 1947 when the Indian Army landed at Srinagar airport and heralded the beginning of Indo-Pakistan War of 1947-48. The evil mercenaries and their masters were pushed back over two long drawn campaigning seasons.

Post independence, the Dominion of India gave an option to the princely states to become an integral part of the Union of India with a Constitution based on pillars of democracy, freedom and equality. All princely states joined the Indian Union by signing the Instrument of Accession. Maharaja Hari Singh, the ruler of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir however sought time to decide since his state had a diverse demography and geography.

While the Dominion of India was quite content in providing this time to the Maharaja, the Dominion of Pakistan sought to impose itself on the state by the use of force. On October 22, Pakistan invaded Kashmir with mercenaries, mostly from the North West Frontier Provinces and popularly called Kabailies. This mercenary army was raised by directing every Pathan tribe to enlist at least on Lashkar (military contingent) and was provided arms, ammunition and equipment by the Pakistan Army. It was commanded by officers of the Pakistan Army under the overall command of Major General Akbar Khan.

As the mercenaries moved in from the Baramulla axis, the J&K state forces put up a valiant resistance with the Chief of Army Staff of the state forces, Brigadier Rajinder Singh in personal command. The state forces were able to impose crucial delay but were ultimately overwhelmed after the last man, last round resistance. Brigadier Rajinder Singh fell in the battle and was awarded the first Maha Vir Chakra in the Indian Army.

The horde of mercenaries indulged in large scale massacre, rape, loot and arson with impunity. They lay waste everything that came their way. In Baramulla, they surpassed all tenets of inhumanity with pillage that lasted for four days. Men and children were tortured and killed while the women were raped and carried back as sex slaves. Even the nuns of the convent were not spared; they were raped and killed ruthlessly.

The Kashmiri Pandit community was identified for special treatment involving the most depraved form of torture and cruelty possible. Whole families committed mass suicide in the face of this brutal and merciless onslaught by jumping from roof tops or throwing themselves into the running waters of the River Jhelum.

Even under such terrible conditions, the human spirit prevailed. A 19-year old boy, Maqbool Sherwani, went about on a cycle spreading a message that the Indian Army was on the doors of Baramulla. This information restrained the mercenaries and saved thousands of lives. It also stalled the march to Srinagar and literally saved the city from a fate even worse than that of Baramulla. When the Pakistanis realised that young Maqbool Sherwani had misled them, they shot and crucified him. The young boy, with his courage and presence of mind, etched a place for himself in the history for all times.

Pakistan’s perfidy was proof enough for Maharaja Hari Singh to realise that the security of his people lay only with India. It was with this conviction in mind that he signed the Instrument of Accession on October 26, 1947 and legally acceded to India under the provisions of the Indian Independence Act 1947. The Instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh was no different in content and spirit than what had been signed by other princely states.

The very next day on October 27, 1947 the Indian Army landed at Srinagar airport and, against great odds, saved the people. The Indian troops did not know or care about how politics would play out in the long run. Their only concern was to ensure that the barbarians were thrown out in the shortest possible time and security of the people ensured.

In this, they were singularly successful, but not without paying a heavy price including loss of many soldiers. If the Indian Army had not reacted the way it did, Srinagar would have been a huge, desolate graveyard and the history of the Kashmir Valley would have changed forever. The people at that time were full of praise for the Indian forces as they are even today. They recollect the courage and sacrifice of the Indian forces in 1947 with utmost respect and admiration.

Every year, starting from October 22, the Indian victory is remembered across the state and the country by holding memorials and other functions. The bravery of those who fought to save Kashmir, both civilian and military, is honoured with utmost reverence. From this year onwards, the government of India has declared observance of “Black Day” on October 22 to highlight Pakistan’s perfidy in attempting to illegally annex Jammu and Kashmir and the brutality of the mercenary hordes sent for the purpose.

A similar Black Day is also observed, since long, across Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK) and by its active diaspora, especially the Brussels-based United Kashmir Peoples National Party (UKPNP). Invariably, the demand is for immediate withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the territory.

A global seminar was also organised at Jammu to mark the Black Day; it was addressed, among others, by Jamil Maqsood of the UKPNP. The seminar raised a demand upon the government of India to approach the International Court of Justice to ensure censure of Pakistan for its atrocities against the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

It is no longer possible for Pakistan to mislead the people of Kashmir with fallacies and outright lies. The people of the state are well aware of their past and quite sure about what they want in the future. It is hoped that Pakistan will also get the message.

Kashmir: LG’s understatement on internally displaced persons

Manoj Sinha, Lt. Governor Jammu & Kashmir, cannot be singled out for his token response to the question of restoring secular profile of Kashmir Valley. Answering a press reporter about the return and restitution of the displaced community of Kashmiri Hindus (Pandits), the Lt. Governor chose to be vague and perfunctory. He has thus maintained the government’s decades-old policy of side-tracking the core of Kashmir issue.

He said the process of return of the displaced Pandits will begin in a year. But lest caught on the wrong foot, he corrected himself and added that 6,000 government vacancies would be filled by recruiting the youth from the displaced population and an equal number of flats was under construction in some parts of the valley where these employees would be housed. Thus we find that an issue meriting political decision is relegated to administrative dispensation. One can understand the compulsions.

However, it has to be recollected that the Prime Minister’s package was announced by Dr Manmohan Singh, the then PM, in 2008 on the occasion of inaugurating the Akhnoor Bridge in Jammu. In 12 years barely 1400 youth of the displaced community have been inducted into government service. With this snail’s pace, it will take another fifty years for the Lt. Governor to employ 4600 youth of the displaced community. The PM’s Package was dragged on for 12 long years and the eligible youth of the displaced community became overaged and ineligible for employment in government service. The LG was loath either to reflect on this sordid situation or to pass even an off-the-cuff remark on the subject.

We believe the Lt. Governor has to be a thinking machine in terms of the need and importance of secular dispensation in Kashmir and the pre-requisites of its contours. The question is whether the panacea for the ethnic cleansing of Kashmir lies in providing 6000 Class IV or III jobs to the eligible youth of the displaced community and then leave it to its fate. If in the eyes of responsible authorities the Pandit issue means only providing employment to their eligible youth and brushing aside all other ramifications of mass displacement and ethnic cleansing, then why not find them work for wages outside Kashmir and formally announce Kashmiris of the valley having the freedom of declaring Kashmir sharia observing theocratic region (or sub-region) in a secular Union Territory of the Indian Union.  

We believe that the Lt. Governor is aware that as Home Minister Rajnath Singh had proposed to earmark a sum of rupees 5000 crores for the rehabilitation of the displaced Pandits back in Kashmiri. Omar Abdullah, the then CM never responded to that proposal. What inference will the Lt. Governor draw from this?

Kashmiri Pandits protesting for their rights. (Representative image)
Kashmiri Pandits protesting for their rights. (Representative photo)

In the Agreement of Alliance jointly signed by Mufti Muhammad Saeed, the then chief minister and BJP leadership while cobbling a coalition government in 2014, it was stipulated that the displaced Hindus of the valley would be resettled in Kashmir. Late Mufti and PM Modi met in Delhi and agreed to take an initiative to this purpose. They made a public joint statement in Delhi. Next day, there was a general strike against the announcement in the entire valley, the like of which has never been seen. Not only that, in the State Legislative Assembly, Kashmir Valley MLAs came to fists with the BJP members and declared that no power on earth could bring back the Pandits to the Valley. Mufti Saeed, the then Chief Minister, intervening in the melee and absolving himself of the respondents said that he meant the Pandits would return to their homes in respective localities in towns and villages. But he did not say where their homes were and who had vandalized these and whether these existed at all? The General Secretary of National Conference (NC) is on record to have said that the NC would not allow the return of the displaced Pandits because “we know each Pandit will bring three Israelis with him.” This should explain to the Lt. Governor what Sheikh Abdullah meant saying in his biography Atash-e-Chinar that the Pandits are the “spies of India in Kashmir.” One may ask, is a Pandit eking out a miserable living in Kashmir a spy of India or is it those who have been ruling over Kashmir for three generations albeit with the patronage of New Delhi?

The Lt. Governor may assume the thorny issue of return and rehabilitation of displaced Pandits just simplistic and conducive to the political expediency of the authorities in power. But this simplification has an unfavourable dimension. It could be interpreted that the Pandits should reconcile to returning to the Wahhabized Kashmir and live as third rate zimmis (outcasts) in the once glorious land of their ancestors.

Who does not know that propagators of Islamic Caliphate have dragged Kashmir to the centre of their philosophy? The insurgents in Kashmir are not fighting for democracy, human rights, development, equality and the rule of law. They are fighting to dismantle it lock, stock and barrel, and replace it with Islamic Sharia (Law). Not only the Indian state but even the Indian nation is pitted against the expansionist Islam of early times. Kashmir cause is as dear to the bigots as it has led to a split among the Muslims in which the non-Semitic Islamic world has developed political differences with the Semitic Arab world. The former attaches importance to nuclear Pakistan hoping that the day would not be far away when she will in actuality convert it into an Islamic bomb. The ground is already set for that. What does President Erdogan’s aspiration for the revival of Ottoman grandeur mean? Of late Turkey has been showing goodwill gesture towards Kashmiri Muslim students by making their admission easier in Turkish institutes and granting scholarships to some of them. The aim is to assure the Kashmiri Muslims and to Pakistan that Turkey is with them in their Kashmir mission.

Farooq Abdullah’s call for invoking China’s support in the Islamic revivalist movement in Kashmir could not have come without the blessings from the Chinese mission in New Delhi, a source known for its largesse in winning over political dissidents of various hues in India. And China is using the Islamists all over the world for wrecking the existing world order and reshaping it after its planning. The world is getting gradually polarized.  Democracy, the universally accepted just form of government is alien to the doctrinal Islamic practice and tradition. India, with the second-largest Muslim population in the world is at the forefront of the ongoing clash of civilizations. Farooq or Mufti’s opposition to India essentially stems from the concept that Muslims are not supposed to be subservient to a non-Muslim rule. This thinking was clearly stated by Sheikh Abdullah when he argued for special status for Kashmir at the time when Indian constitution was in making.

When India agreed to Kashmir’s special status on the basis of religion and did not demand that J&K Constitution also make identical provision for the protection of the rights and identity of its religious minorities, it was obvious that India was reconciled to Kashmir as a theocratic region within the secular Indian Union. It is the loss of that theocratic status which Farooq Abdullah, Mufti Mehbooba and others of their team are lamenting for and seeking restoration. The recent separatist oriented statements of Mehbooba, the President of PDP should be a lesson for the BJP which made the Himalayan blunders in Kashmir especially that of forming a coalition with it not once but twice. Farooq Abdullah says that he is not against the Indian nation but against BJP for abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A. But it is the Indian nation that had incorporated through its representatives in the parliament the said article in the constitution and it is the same Indian nation which has through its representatives in the Parliament abrogated the said Article. Obviously Farooq Abdullah is opposing not only the Indian nation but also it most sanctified institution namely the Indian Parliament.

With several terrorist organizations based in Pakistan sending their suicide bombers to fight the Indian defense forces in Kashmir and the state’s political leadership never condemning and always justifying the violence unleashed by them, the valley’s political leadership indirectly sends a message to the displaced community of Pandits that the valley is not the place they should look for. India is knee-deep in this existential conflict with the radicals. The Islamists have succeeded in making the world believe that India is lost to the secularists and, therefore, they have a historic duty to fight back for its “Islamization”. Nobody can predict how long this conflict will continue and with what consequences.

People in the valley are happy if the Indian government is investing massively in various developmental works in Kashmir. The developmental exercise has one meaning for the government of India and another for the valley’s leadership. What we would like to bring home to the Indian government is that the need is to bring about fundamental changes in Kashmir. Democracy and civil rights have been abused beyond limits in Kashmir. The entire administrative structure is mentally diseased and morally run aground. Religion is turned into lethal weapon that scares people and stifles their voice. Abrogation of Article 370 and 35A has roused much rabble and yielded substantially little. Stopping the abuse of democratic dispensation, neutralizing the tyranny of majoritarianism, drastically separating religion from politics, strictly enforcing rules and regulations governing cohesive social interaction, disarming the powerful elitist class, withdrawing all such privileges as generate support for the concept of exclusiveness etc., these are the fundamental tasks that must be taken in hand if Kashmir is to be retrieved. Kashmir Valley has to be India if the displaced community is to go back to the valley. The Pandits are not the goats to be sacrificed for the sake of the type of “secularism” which India is harboring in Kashmir. The Pandits will not go to the Wahhabized and Pakistani-zed Kashmir but to Indian-ized Kashmir only.

Forecasting China’s dream through the prism of Indo-China relations

International Geo-Political Overview
The world which was transiting through one of its most dynamic periods with the emergence of a multi-polar world leading to an unstable, dynamic security environment that has become even more complex due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With the benefit of hindsight, we can say that it was waiting to happen. Post 9/11, GWOT (global war on terrorism) and numerous interventions by the USA and its allies in all parts of the globe (African continent, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Middle-East, Afghanistan, North Korea, Crimea, East Europe et al), the US and its allies (the West) started losing their appetite, economic and military capacities and capabilities to act as the moral policemen. Moreover, other countries led by China and Russia who no longer wished to be dominated or adhere to the liberal democratic world order ordained by the ‘West’, started creating their own strategic space by aligning with likeminded countries and strengthening their comprehensive national power (CNP). They concurrently analysed the strengths and vulnerabilities of the West with the aim of countering them, achieving their national objectives by carrying out a form of hybrid competition and confrontation, but staying below the red lines of the West, so as not to invite military or punitive responses. USA already acknowledges Russia and China as great powers (Russia more for its nuclear assets and military prowess), and now officially considers China as a peer competitor (Security Strategy (NSS) of 2017). Incidentally this month the IMF, has rated China as the largest economy in the World (this input surprisingly has gone largely unnoticed).

COVID the Catalyst
We are seeing increasing economic and strategic asymmetry, political, societal and cultural differences, compelling all nations (including USA) to carry out strategic balancing (multi-lateral and bilateral alliances), and engage in a mix of cooperation, competition, confrontation and possible conflict in case national aspirations/objectives are threatened; getting further aggravated due to the impact of COVID. To stir the cauldron even more, the ‘Rising Dragon’ China has donned its most visible, aggressive, multi-domain intervention ‘avatar’ leaving most nations, leaders, world institutions, geo-political/strategic experts alarmed, apprehensive and puzzled; most so a nervous, vulnerable and suddenly underconfident perplexed USA.

Ironically, the pandemic started in China (with numerous theories doing the rounds), but China seems to have rebounded the fastest. The October 19, 2020 Chinese economic forecast shows an overall BALANCED growth of 4.6%, a V-shaped recovery, which has been confirmed as huge and real by the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank) and IMF, while other nations are reeling in the midst of an unprecedented slowdown and negative growth pattern. The security situation in the Indo-Pacific region with focus on the China Seas (East and South) and South Asia (LAC along the India-China border) has never been so volatile or dangerous with a high probability of turning into a shooting war. The lack of agreements/protocols (broken or non-existent) and most of all trust amongst the protagonists, especially the military deployed at eyeball to eyeball contact and mobilized and operating in large numbers in all domains (land, maritime, air, space, information, PSYOPS (psychological operations) and in the cyber domain) has placed the geo-political security environment at a razor’s edge.

The Vicissitudes/Challenges of Forecasting
Crystal Ball Gazing/forecasting has always been difficult and uncertain, particularly in geo-politics. A domain in which the rules of the game are poorly understood, information is invariably incomplete, and expertise often confers surprisingly little advantage in predicting future events[i]. Policymakers tend to fill in with past experience which makes all of them forecasters. They often assume that tomorrow’s dangers will look like yesterday’s, retaining the same mental map even as the environment around them changes dramatically. On the other hand, if policymakers addressed all imaginable situations and threats, nations (India) would need so large and expensive a national security establishment that the country could do little else.

While scenario builders visualise too many possible futures, by contrast, forecasters believe it is possible to calculate the odds of possible outcomes, thereby transforming amorphous uncertainty into quantifiable risk. In geo-politics we need to combine both approaches, as having too many different versions of the future can make it nearly impossible to act. In geo-politics the most vibrant characteristic of decision-making is ‘Uncertainty’. To illustrate, in the current strategic security environment who can predict the following with certainty; Will there be bullets fired in East Ladakh/small scale clashes leading to kinetic action by December 31?; Will the tense standoff in the China Seas (South and East) and Taiwan Straits with no agreements/protocols between arrayed adversarial forces result in hostile actions accidentally/deliberately by end of 2020?; Will China start pulling back its forces mobilized in East Ladakh before severe winter? Philip E Tetlock, during his research on forecasting found that seasoned political experts had trouble outperforming “dart-tossing chimpanzees”/ random guesses when it came to predicting global events[ii]. The experts fared even worse against amateur news junkies. Overconfidence was the norm, not the exception. Those who were surest that they understood the forces driving the political system fared significantly worse than their humbler colleagues, who did not shy from complexity, approaching problems with greater curiosity and open-mindedness.

PM Narendra Modi accompanied by Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat and Army Chief MM Naravane during his visit to Ladakh on July 3.
PM Narendra Modi accompanied by Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat and Army Chief MM Naravane during his visit to Ladakh on July 3.

China 2040/2050 — Likely Scenarios, Pathways Adopted and Grand Strategy

Likely Scenarios
With uncertainty as a backdrop, we can forecast four fairly obvious scenarios of China two/three decades from now (also supported by RAND Report[iii]), which are —

  • China Dream Achieved (Triumphant). Dominates the world stage in most domains, with a modern military and an innovative economy.
  • Almost There (Ascendant). Preeminent power not only in Asia but in other regions, as well.
  • Status Quo (Stagnant). Suffered from low growth and faces social unrest.
  • Fading/Disturbed internally (Imploding). Experiences a crisis of existential proportions, in which domestic instability undercuts the country’s international influence.

Pathways Adopted by China based on Growth – Pathways likely to be adopted by China against its adversaries are likely to be a mix of multi-domain approaches (PDIME – political, diplomatic, informational, military, and mainly economic) with; firstly, adopt cooperation, accommodation and competition when growth is stagnant/slow; secondly, confrontationist/even threatening conflict approach if growth pattern remarkably surges like now post COVID, as confident and assertive China perceives that the world, specially USA and the West is down, while with its V-shaped recovery it’s a great opportunity to attain its global objectives; thirdly, almost impossible to predict if CCP (not China) perceives an existential crisis amidst widespread out of control internal dissension, forcing CCP to create a false external threat narrative and instigate nationalism and jingoism, provoking conflict to deflect people’s attention. India must carefully analyse signals emanating from China, as perceived alignment of India with USA and its allies will evoke a strong response as is happening now. India while structuring its own strategic maneuvers and attempting to retain ‘strategic autonomy’ should be aware that it is also a battle of perception whatever may be India’s intention.

Core Elements of Chinese Grand Strat
The struggle between the US and China is ultimately over which country offers a better road to progress. China seeks to demonstrate that its brand of governance is superior to that of the West, and consequently, it deserves a greater say and political influence over international affairs. Post COVID instead of being muted and cooperative, China has pulled out all the stops, and is showing urgency in achieving President Xi Jinping’s China Dream perceiving an opportunity. Watching the annoyance and hostility of nations, there is a visible hardening of stance and siege mentality amongst Chinese leaders specially Xi. Having mounted the nationalist, high growth, high aspiration tiger, Xi may be tempted to act thinking that it’s a ‘’now or never’ period and even views it as an existential struggle for the CCP. China is fully aware that its rise is going be contested every step of the way especially by a confused, angry, threatened, apprehensive USA, using every attribute of their CNP (comprehensive national power). These moves as can be seen will sometimes be unreasonable, illegal, by subterfuge, breaking agreements (specially on trade and high end and disruptive technologies); forming strategic and military alliances; and engaging in political, military, trade and economic brinkmanship. Under these circumstances the core elements of Xi/CCP to guide China are likely to be: –

  • Ensure Legitimacy of CCP for the Long Term. While Xi Jinping remains the absolute leader, we must not forget that there are approximately 80 million CCP members, a degree of factionalism within, and groups and individuals with different world and China views (including numbers who admire USA) creating a paradox within. Since there are no elections, material prosperity and economic growth remain central to CCP survival.
  • The New Mantra. When confronted externally by more belligerent adversaries China realizes that its policy should be ‘liberal externally and illiberal internally’.
  • Win International Support and recast Global Rules and Order.  The emerging multi-polar world is already seeing many nations who want to follow their own ideology and paths, especially those ruled by autocrats/dictators who are happy to find alternate narratives and options led by Russia and China with structures/alliances/even economic backing to follow their own path. The biggest requirement for all these countries even the developed nations is economic help. China with its deep pockets, BRI and economic statecraft is fast emerging as a very strong alternative to global leadership. With increasing geo-politico-military-economic-cultural clout and presence in the world institutions, China no longer wants to bide its time, as it feels it has arrived.
  • Increase Isolation of Taiwan. It is extremely difficult to forecast the status of Taiwan in the next two/three decades. For the CCP the ‘one China policy’ is a core non-negotiable national imperative.
  • Neutralise/Remove US and Western influence in Asia and Indo-Pacific. China undoubtedly stands amongst the first two in most parameters of economy, diplomatic influence, military capability, future resources, cultural influence and soft power (less defence alliances and technology where it is fast catching up), and has almost caught up with USA in overall comprehensive national power (CNP[iv]. Xi Jinping has transformed the PLA into a modern, cohesive force capable of fighting a multi-domain war outside its sovereign territory. Compact integrated theatre commands, rapidly expanding Navy with blue water capabilities, strategic support and rocket force incorporating the latest in game changing niche (AI, hyper velocity, nanotechnology, robotics, space and satellite systems) and disruptive technologies make it a formidable vertical of its comprehensive national power. IMF has already stated that it boasts of the largest economy in the world. Numerous wargames conducted by US military and strategic Think Tanks has signaled to USA that in case of a war with China an assured victory is not guaranteed. China feels it is her right to dominate Asia being a global power, for which it has to erode the West’s influence completely.

Crystal Ball Gazing: LAC Manoeuvres during Winter of 2020/21.          There is no doubting the asymmetry in comprehensive national power (CNP) between China and India, however, militarily along the LAC in East Ladakh, India can negotiate on equal terms, due to the pro-active operational manoeuvres undertaken by the Indian Army. China would aim at attaining a comprehensive and overwhelming geo-political and strategic advantage vis-à-vis India, which cannot be altered by war. This has presently been foreclosed/stalled by Indian Armed Forces due to the extremely fast mobilization and mirror deployment in strength, building logistics sustenance capability for the winter, forward posturing of the IAF, mobilized Indian Navy signaling intent of intervention in the Indian Ocean Region (further strengthened by QUAD statements), strong retaliation at Galwan (which shook up the PLA), and bold surprise occupation of the Kailash Range dominating heights compromising Chinese ground positions, as also clear intent and resolve that our Armed Forces will stand firm, stay the winter and rules of the game have changed irrevocably. Our Indian Army has a formidable reputation of fighting in high altitude terrain, management of LoC/LAC of which we are masters. The likely scenario which is likely to pan out are bulleted below: –

  • No major operational land manoeuvres by Chinese expected. India too will bide its time. India has also signaled that rules of engagement along the LAC has changed and troops have been ordered to even use firearms if their positions are under threat.
  • Total lack of trust specially between the Armed Forces prevails. Our Army will stay deployed in strength through the winter.
  • China equally wary of Indian probability of offensive manoeuvres (operational/ tactical). One of the senior PLA Generals has publicly warned China of the possibility.
  • China could carry out demonstrative posturing and increased movement along the LAC even in other Sectors [Middle (HP & Uttaranchal) and Eastern (Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim).
  • India must be prepared for sudden opportunistic tactical moves by PLA. India too will be planning the same as quid pro quid operations, as also part of consolidation of gains for leverage during negotiations.
  • Possibility of Mutual Understanding on LAC Standoff. There is a distinct possibility of PLA agreeing to mutual pulling back of troops on terms acceptable to India. This is because China has lost the opportunity for ensuring strategic gains, and any further major offensive action could prove counter-productive and very costly with non-commensurate gains. Deploying in strength over a long period, along the LAC sends a wrong message to the world about an aspiring global power that has failed to resolve her boundary issue, which she set out to do. Geo-political prediction is uncertain as already elaborated, but China could seek a face-saving LAC resolution before severe winter sets in. Certain non-negotiables for India militarily are continuing building/upgrading infrastructure along LAC, use of DBO ALG (Daulat Beg Oldie Advanced Landing Ground) and strategic Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road, patrolling up to designated points in Depsang plains, and occupation of Kailash heights. The tenuous and ambiguous concept of ‘Buffer Zones’ should be viewed with extreme caution due to possibility of different interpretations. The very concept of border/LAC management needs to be redrawn with proper verification and validation processes factored in.
  • Pakistan unlikely to get directly involved. Multi-Domain hybrid warfare continues, and mobilization can be expected closer to any major move by China.
  • QUAD consolidation good signaling. Ex-Malabar shows intent.
  • An interesting summer of 2021 lies ahead based on events globally.
  • The nuclear dimension; China and India are two mature nuclear powers with a stated ‘no first use policy’, and this aspect is not being considered as of now.
  • Increasingly it is clear that leaders very often take unilateral decisions despite contrary advice and hence behavioral science/study of leaders (Xi Jinping, PLA commanders, Gen Bajwa) vital.
  • This is a golden opportunity to impress upon the Chinese the urgency and strategic necessity of ‘Delineation and Demarcation of LAC/IB’ to preclude occurrence of more such standoffs, which could lead to a shooting war.

Positive Takeaways from Chinese Belligerence
There has been forward movement in the higher security and defence management in India with numerous positive steps like ‘aatmanirbharta’ (self reliance) in defence and critical sectors, appointment of CDS and Dept of Military Affairs, focus on priority defence procurement, steps for corporatization of OFB (Ordnance Factory Board), enhanced strategic and defence cooperation with USA and other friendly nations. The Chinese LAC challenge has brought into sharp focus the necessity of ‘complete and comprehensive integration of our National Security Architecture’ which is outside the scope of this paper. It has eliminated the bogey of the Chinese Dragon as a behemoth and ten feet tall and all powerful, and the bogey of the 1962 debacle once and for all, including the military. It has irrevocably pointed our focus on our most serious strategic challenge/threat of China, and will ensure a more pragmatic and realistic assessment of Pakistan, who will become just an irritant as the Indian asymmetry widens. It has also acted as a clarion call to 1.4 billion Indians for the next 50 years (two generations), that China the permanent contiguous immediate hegemonistic neighbor will always have an adversarial/confrontationist relationship, because that is how real politik pans out. This automatically tells India that we have no choice but to build our comprehensive national power especially the military domain (at least till our border issue is resolved which China will not do in immediate future being a good pressure point against us) to meet all the challenges of a multi-polar, multi-domain competitive, confrontationist world, to ensure that our national vision and aspirations are met.

Conclusion
This is undoubtedly a momentous, historic moment for the geo-political future of India. We have so far got our act together. We need to stay strong and firm, avoid jingoism, support and have faith in the professionalism of our battle hardened Armed Forces, remain ahead of the Chinese loop, anticipate their moves and preempt them. It’s a long road ahead with numerous multi-domain challenges as no doubt China with her client state Pakistan will step up their hybrid operations (including the 3-Warfare strategy of legal, psychological and information operations) in the months ahead, to achieve their objective, which they have failed to do by military intimidation and subterfuge. If we come out of the LAC standoff with our national interests not compromised, our territorial integrity and sovereignty intact, ensure a stalemate which will be seen as a victory, and our national resolve and confidence at a much better place than before, it will open the skies for global support and cooperation, acting as a catalyst for a fast turn-around of our economy. This along with our enhanced status amongst the comity of nations will act as an impetus for sustained growth and emergence as a ‘balancing power’.

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[i] ‘A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Futureby J Peter Scoblic and Philip E Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2020.

[ii] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ by Philip E Tetlock,  published in 2015 by Crown Publishers, available in Amazon

[iii] ‘China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition’, 2020 RAND Corporation Report commissioned by US Army, Link – https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2798.html

[iv] Lowy Institute Asian Power Index 2020, Link – https://power.lowyinstitute.org